Saturday, November 12, 2016
Hillary's horrible candidacy aside, Republicans should be worrying about stagnating popular vote totals
Bush 2004: 62 million
McCain 2008: 60 million
Romney 2012: 60. 9 million
Trump 2016: 60.5 million
Republican average: 60.85
Democrat average: 63.88 (John Kerry and Hillary Clinton 60.1; Barack Obama 2x 67.7)
Republicans are just one more articulate, bright, clean, nice-looking minority person away from another slaughter.
Ya think? WaPo: "It's possible that Clinton supporters did not show up on Election Day"
The latest tally shows Hillary not getting 8.361 million votes in 2016 which Obama got in 2008. No matter what Trump's coalition was in 2016, its size shows little variation from 2008 and 2012. There was no sea change of support for his candidacy.
The answer for Clinton's loss is in the disarray among Democrats because their candidate was so horrible, which is why the media have portrayed Trump that way. It's liberal projection syndrome all over again. Hillary Clinton was the worst candidate for president in at least a generation. "More sooty baggage than a 90-car freight train" was how Camille Paglia put it 3 years ago. Democrats should have listened to her.
The answer for Clinton's loss is in the disarray among Democrats because their candidate was so horrible, which is why the media have portrayed Trump that way. It's liberal projection syndrome all over again. Hillary Clinton was the worst candidate for president in at least a generation. "More sooty baggage than a 90-car freight train" was how Camille Paglia put it 3 years ago. Democrats should have listened to her.
WaPo, recognizing that the proper comparison is with 2008, not 2012:
Absent final turnout numbers, it is still too early to assess whether these shifting vote patterns are the result of differential turnout among Clinton and Trump supporters or the result of genuine voter conversion. It’s possible that a sizable chunk of Latino Clinton supporters, in addition to white women, African Americans, and Asian Americans, did not show up on Election Day. It’s also possible that a significant portion of these voters were willing to overlook Trump’s incendiary remarks and vote for him based on other factors, like the need to shake up “politics as usual.”
Friday, November 11, 2016
As usual, the stupid party doesn't even know why it won
8.748 million Democrat voters who voted for Obama in 2008 didn't vote for Hillary in 2016.
It was a battle of the midget titans, a swordfight between fleas.
That's all.
News reports headline over and over a mere 100 protesters in downtown Grand Rapids last night whining that Trump is not their president
And on election night 148,160 said he was, 48.3% of all Kent County, Michigan voters.
Hey Ann Coulter: Republicans lost only 2 of 25 US Senate races because 4.1 million Democrats didn't turnout in 2016, 4.8 million voted for somebody else
Turnout 2008: 131.5 million
Turnout 2016: 127.4 million
Obama 2008: 69.5 million
Hillary 2016: 60.6 million
Trump victory in WI in 2016 is explainable by decline in turnout relative to 2012
Trump beat Hillary in Wisconsin in 2016 by just 24,081 votes.
With turnout from 2012 down by 91,000, one could explain Trump's victory by saying Wisconsin Democrats stayed home in enough numbers in 2016 to help elect Trump. And since of the last three presidential elections turnout in Wisconsin was highest in 2012 at 3.068 million when the state helped return the incumbent Democrat to office, the argument possesses considerable plausibility.
Compared with 2008, however, this explanation fails since 2016 turnout undershot 2008 by just 6,000, not enough to account for Trump's victory over Hillary.
Both Iowa and Wisconsin were slow to the trend of turnout peaking in 2008 when the popular Democrat Obama won in an election with still unequaled turnout of 131.5 million nationwide.
Trump victory in IA was genuine and not attributable to turnout changes
Trump beat Hillary by 146,182 votes in Iowa in 2016.
The 2016 turnout was only 25,000 lower than in 2012, but 20,000 higher than in 2008.
In the last three presidential elections the turnout high in Iowa was in 2012 at 1.582 million.
#NeverTrump Sen. Kelly "Free Condoms" Ayotte defeated in NH by 743 votes
Poster girl for the muddled message.
On the third day after Election 2016 the totals remain incomplete in five states
IL 1% out
WA 24% out
NJ 1% out
UT 18% out
OR 1% out
WA 24% out
NJ 1% out
UT 18% out
OR 1% out
Thursday, November 10, 2016
Revulsion Election update: Trump got lucky, underperformed Romney by 1.4 million votes, McCain by 450,000 votes
Hillary underperformed Obama 2012 by 6.2 million, Obama 2008 by . . . 9.8 million.
Democrats elected Trump by not voting for Hillary.
Rush Limbaugh is repeating stupid from National Review, that Trump could have beaten Obama in 2012
This will become the new factoid to replace the "94 million not working but eating" myth and the "4 million stayed home in 2012" myth and the 99ers myth.
Heavy sigh.
Revulsion for Hillary: Some Trump victories wholly dependent on turnout undershooting 2008 levels in four high population states
TX: turnout up 0.8 million, Trump beat Hillary by 0.814 million
FL: turnout up 1.0 million, Trump beat Hillary by 0.12 million
PA: turnout down by 100 thousand, Trump beat Hillary by 68 thousand
OH: turnout down by 400 thousand, Trump beat Hillary by 454 thousand
GA: turnout up 0.1 million, Trump beat Hillary by 0.231 million
NC: turnout up 0.4 million, Trump beat Hillary by 0.177 million
MI: turnout down by 200 thousand, Trump beat Hillary by 12 thousand
AZ: turnout down by 300 thousand, Trump beat Hillary by 84 thousand
The revulsion for Hillary election: In the top 14 states by population, 2016 turnout undershot 2008 by 5.4 million net
CA: down 4.7 million
TX: up 0.8 million
FL: up 1.0
NY: down 0.5
IL: down 0.1
PA: down 0.1
OH: down 0.4
GA: up 0.1
NC: up 0.4
MI: down 0.2
NJ: down 0.7
VA: up 0.2
WA: down 0.9
AZ: down 0.3
Back out CA and the net down is 0.7 million from 2008.
Trump states had turnout net up 1.3 million from 2008. In the traditionally Democrat states Trump won, it appears to be partly due to Democrats not turning out for Hillary. Only in VA did Trump lose where turn out was up from 2008.
Clinton states apart from CA had turnout net down 2 million from 2008.
Wednesday, November 9, 2016
National Review contributor tries to make the case that Trump 2016 would have beaten Obama 2012
The author repeatedly mentions that he knows he's comparing apples to oranges but never adjusts his figures for population growth over the period.
As of this morning, Trump is underperforming Romney by 1.9 million votes, but the country has grown by 9 million since 2012.
The Trump performance figure in 2016 presupposes having so much more to work with from the increased population growth but still comes up short of Romney who had so much less to work with because of a smaller population.
Trump toyed with the idea of competing in 2012 but wisely left Romney to do that and fail, knowing instinctively that the shiny, happy and clean novelty incumbent was going to be very hard to beat.
Obama was beatable in 2012, had fewer than 500,000 votes in four states east of the Mississippi gone a different way, but Romney possessed insufficient charisma compared to Obama, too few boots on the ground to make up for that, and the formidable problem of Obama's incumbency.
And on top of all that, Romney was a lousy candidate. His wife had to reassure us that "Mitt doesn't change positions".
As with all fortunes from Chinese cookies, always add "in bed" for maximum amusement.
Polling in Wisconsin was the poster boy for polling failure in 2016
From the story here:
There were no surveys released this year from Wisconsin that showed Trump with a lead.
Clinton held a 6.5 point lead in the Badger State heading into Election Day, and the state was not even discussed as on par with Michigan or Pennsylvania as a potential blue state pick-up for Trump.
Trump’s victory in Wisconsin — a state that has not gone for the GOP nominee since 1984 — helped him seal the deal.
In Michigan and Pennsylvania, deep blue states the GOP candidate has not won in decades, polls showed the race tightening in the home stretch, but only one poll, from Trafalgar Group, showed Trump with the lead.
The revulsion election, Obama vs. Hillary, shows 10.25 million missing Democrat voters, and Trump underperforming both Romney and McCain
Obama garnered 69.499 million votes in 2008, so far in 2016 Hillary has just 59.245 million.
Trump is underperforming Romney by 1.912 million votes, 59.022 million to 60.934 million, and also McCain, who collected 59.950 million votes in 2008, by just shy of 1 million votes.
Expect changes to these spreads as the 2016 numbers finalize.
The revulsion election update: turnout down 3.6% from 2012
So far 124.6 million have voted in 2016, down 4.6 million from 2012 when 129.2 million voted.
Expect revisions in this space in coming days.
That useless rag USA Today says turnout was up 4.7%, missing the revulsion election
"Voter turnout up 4.7% around the country", says that useless rag USA Away.
The data in the upper Midwest says otherwise.
In Michigan, turnout was 4.7 million, a little lower than in 2012 when 4.8 million showed up. In 2008 5 million did.
In Wisconsin, turnout was 2.9 million vs. 3.1 million in 2012 and 3 million in 2008.
In Pennsylvania 6 million turned out yesterday, the same as in 2008, up slightly from 2012's 5.8 million.
In Ohio there's been a steady decline since 2008 when 5.7 million turned out. In 2012 it fell to 5.6 million and just 5.3 million in Election 2016.
When the final numbers come in, I'll bet we'll see this phenomenon of suppressed turnout in other places as well. And generally speaking, suppressed turnout favors Republicans because Republicans are often more energized, more scrupulous and more dutiful, as was the case yesterday.
What we had here was a revulsion election. People stayed home because they couldn't vote for either candidate. And because the voters found Hillary more intolerable than The Donald, Mr. Trump is our new president. The smoke generated by the ugliness of the battle on the field obscured the fact of troops staying behind in camp.
In the end America chose the rake over the robber, which was the right choice.
But don't confuse it with a sea change.
Polling on the morning of Election 2016 in the toss-ups vs. the outcome
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Florida: Trump wins by 1.4, vs. 0.2 predicted
Maine CD2: Trump wins by 9.8 with 90% counted vs. 0.5 predicted
New Hampshire: Clinton wins by 0.6 vs. 0.3 with 97% counted (!)
Nevada: Clinton wins by 2.4 vs. Trump predicted by 0.8
North Carolina: Trump wins by 3.8 vs. 1.0 predicted
Pennsylvania: Trump wins by 1.1 vs. Clinton predicted by 1.9
Colorado: Clinton wins by 2.2 with 88% counted vs. 2.9 predicted
Iowa: Trump wins by 9.4 with 99% counted vs. 3.0 predicted
Michigan: Trump winning by 0.3 vs. Clinton predicted by 3.4
Ohio: Trump wins by 8.6 vs. 3.5 predicted
Arizona: Trump wins by 4.0 with 98% counted vs. 4.0 predicted (!)
Maine: Clinton wins by 3.0 with 91% counted vs. 4.5 predicted
Georgia: Trump wins by 5.7 vs. 4.8 predicted
Virginia: Clinton wins by 4.7 with 99% counted vs. 5.0 predicted
New Mexico: Clinton wins by 8.3 vs. 5.0 predicted
Wisconsin: Trump wins by 1.0 vs. Clinton predicted by 6.5 (arguably the biggest upset of the evening)
The numbskulls on Fox are still debating whether Trump can claim victory on stage
Trump shocked by taking Wisconsin in addition to Florida and Ohio, then Pennsylvania put him over the top, and Michigan and Arizona will put the nails in Clinton's coffin.
Over an hour ago the New York Times projected Trump to win with 305.
All this talk at Fox is just jibber jabber.
Thanks to Mitch McConnell the Scalia seat will be filled by Donald Trump
Jonathan Turley is saying right now that Trump is going to make almost unprecedented changes to the make-up of the Supreme Court.
Asian stocks plunge on Trump victory
The Nikkei 225 is down over 5% at this hour. The Hang Seng is down over 3%. Smaller losses elsewhere in Asia.
Trump is coming for you, Asia.
Hillary won't appear tonight to concede, Podesta says she's not done yet
Hillary was done a half hour ago.
Tuesday, November 8, 2016
Bob Dole votes for Trump, George Bush doesn't vote at all
That, my friends, is the difference between the greatest generation, and the generation to which it gave birth.
Last night Mark Levin almost sounded like the anti-immigration Pat Buchanan he has so often derided
Tonight he's worried the conservative panhandle of Florida isn't turning out for Trump. The guy has spent most of 2016 railing against Donald Trump. What the hell does he expect?
The fact of the matter is Donald Trump doesn't have a ground game, and the Republican Party hates the guy and isn't working for him in the absence of that. It could, but it isn't.
Meanwhile the vicious infighting among Republicans which has continued since Trump was a fait accompli has simply demoralized the rank and file, the base of the party.
October 2016 climate summary for Grand Rapids, Michigan: 17th warmest on record and 8th wettest
October 2016 climate summary for Grand Rapids, Michigan
Average temperature was 54.7 degrees F. Normal is 51.3. The month ranked 17th warmest October since 1892.
The YTD average temperature was 54.2. The normal YTD average temperature is 51.1. The YTD average temperature in the hottest full year on record in 2012 was 55.8.
The lowest temperature in October was 33. The normal lowest temperature is 28. The highest temperature in October was 79, which is also the normal highest.
October 2016 was the 8th wettest on record with 6.15 inches of precipitation. Normal is 2.92 inches. YTD precipitation is 40.09 inches, normal 29.23.
There were 10 Cooling Degree Days in October. Normal is 8. YTD there were 936 CDD, the 15th warmest on record so far. Normal CDD is 694.
Heating Degree Days totaled 44 in September and 324 in October, for a total of 368 for the season so far. Normal HDD seasonally is as follows: July, 6, August, 14, September, 132 and October, 440 for a seasonal normal to date of 592.
Actual lower HDD were indicative of the warmer conditions prevailing after the end of the El Nino this summer. The Very Strong El Nino of 2015-16, averaging 1.43 on the index and 15 months long, was longer but weaker than the 1997-98 episode, which averaged 1.56 on the index and was 13 months long. The 1982-83 VSE averaged 1.3 on the index and was 15 months long.
The Michigan GOP just called me from Lansing
They asked me to vote Republican today in order to "make America great again", but couldn't bring themselves actually to mention their presidential candidate's name, Donald John Trump.
Cowards.
Monday, November 7, 2016
In NH Trump mentions Obama is using Air Force One to campaign for Hillary . . .
. . . but never mentions it's at your expense.
Obama is illegally using tax dollars to electioneer.
Mike Pence told NH tonight it could decide the election tomorrow
And he's right: Just 4 Electoral College votes in NH could put Trump at 270 tomorrow.
On the eve of Election 2016, Trump now needs just 4 Electoral College votes to win this thing tomorrow
Here is the No Toss-Ups map from Real Clear Politics, at 1940 hours.
As you can see, Trump just needs NH (Clinton +0.6) or PA (Clinton +1.9) or VA (Clinton +5) or MI (Clinton +3.4) or CO (Clinton +2.9) or NM (Clinton +5) to win this thing.
Come on people. Say No! to the establishment on both sides. Give Trump the chance to turn America around! Take the country back for the people!
This is undoubtedly your last chance. If Hillary is elected, your guns will go away, along with your ammo, freedom of speech will be curtailed, law and order will continue under assault as liberal appointees fill the judiciary, you will become dependent on government for healthcare, foreigners will flood the land even worse than before, your good paying jobs will fly away to cheaper markets abroad, taxes will soar, economic growth will continue to stagnate, and you'll be lucky to inherit your parents' house because you won't be able to afford one of your own. All because of "pussy".
The Michigan Kent County Republicans just interrupted my posting with a recorded call from Mike Pence asking me to vote for Donald Trump
It's about time.
It's the only call I've received AT ALL asking me to vote for Trump.
It's called CYA, covering your ass.
Yeah, well, I'll be voting for Trump happily, but not for that prick Justin Amash, or any other Republican where there's a US Taxpayers Party candidate to vote for. Republicans don't care about me, only about themselves.
Whether Trump wins or loses, the Republican Party is finished. You don't nominate someone and then betray him.
Bill Clinton's killer of 76 at Waco in 1993 Janet Reno has died at 78
She did not reproduce.
Hillary can't claim she'll continue the good economy because it isn't a good economy
From the macroeconomic point of view of GDP, jobs and homeownership, the economy under Obama has been a bad joke.
Economic growth is lagging, lagging I say, the horrible, awful George W. Bush . . . by $2 trillion. Current dollar GDP under Obama has grown a paltry 28.2%. Under Bush, the worst in the post-war until now, it at least grew by 41.7%. Obama should kill to have George Bush's economic growth, and Hillary probably will, by starting another war. Nothing boosts GDP like war-spending.
Meanwhile job growth as measured by monthly total nonfarm has slowed in 2016 by over 20% compared with 2015, to 181,000 new jobs monthly vs. 229,000 new jobs monthly last year. Is that a hopeful trend?
And if you think 2015 was so great, it wasn't. If the same percentage of the population had been working in 2015 as worked in 2007, there would have been 7 million more employed than there were. There has been a huge contraction in employment, which explains the GDP problem. Without work there is no product.
You can see this vividly in full-time jobs. Compared to October 2007, we have just 2.6 million more full-time jobs in October 2016 than we had in 2007. Think about that. Just 2.6 million more full-time jobs but population has increased by 22 million. After recessions, full-time has always recovered to the previous highs in 2-3 years, but not under Obama. This time it took 8 years, a terrible stain on the economic record.
Next consider housing. There have been 6.4 million completed foreclosures since September 2008 even as the Feds have done everything they can to get housing prices to recover, distorting the economy to the point that today the typical $247,000 existing home is unaffordable for 90% of individual wage earners. No wonder the homeownership rate, at 63.5%, has plunged to a level last seen in 1985.
In the end about all Hillary surrogates have to boast of is the stock market. Larry Kudlow featured one on his radio program this weekend doing just that. But estimates of how many Americans own stocks vary considerably. Gallup recently put it at 52%. Pew in 2013 put it at 45%. Shockingly, the Federal Reserve itself estimates it's more like 13-15%. In the best case only half the country is reaping benefits from stocks, and probably a lot less than half.
Those people who had the foresight to invest in March 2009 have done extremely well. On average the S&P 500 is up over 17% per year since then through September 2016.
But how have long term investors done, people who buy and hold in retirement accounts? Since the last stock market boom peaked in August 2000, they are up only 4.32% per year. That's almost 64% worse than the historical post-war performance of 11.9% with little upside on the horizon as the market has made new all-time highs and is obscenely valued.
Nothing Hillary Clinton is proposing looks remotely likely to improve any of these measures, except maybe by starting a new war.
My boy will be 18 next year. Please don't vote for her.
With polls opening in about 24 hours, 12 states and one congressional district in Maine are Toss Ups
Maine confuses the math because it awards Electoral College votes by congressional district. The race is a toss-up in congressional district 2 where Trump is slightly ahead. If he wins it he gets one Electoral College vote. Congressional district 1 will go to Clinton and she will get its one EC vote, based on the polling data there. Maine is unaccountably listed twice in this table from Real Clear Politics, making it not real clear. "Maine (2)" shouldn't appear in the list, only "Maine CD2 (1)". You'll notice Wisconsin isn't in this list. Why Trump spent valuable time and resources there in the last couple of weeks I don't understand. Virginia would have made more sense, but it too is now absent from the Toss-Ups.
So, with 241 EC votes already projected in the Trump column, if Trump ran this table he'd win overwhelmingly with 320.
If Trump simply keeps what he's got but turns Florida, he wins with 270.
If he doesn't win Florida he'll have to win Pennsylvania and Colorado to win with 270.
Alternatively a win in Pennsylvania and long shot Michigan would give him 277 to win it.
Trump plans to make his last stop of the 2016 campaign tonight in Michigan, right here in Grand Rapids.
Even though polling looks slightly better in New Mexico than in Michigan, New Mexico seems like an even bigger long shot.
Sunday, November 6, 2016
Liberal dipshit at CNBC John Harwood asked Clinton campaign's John Podesta: What should I ask Jeb tomorrow?
Usually the media already know what to ask, but Harwood is too dumb to know.
In my opinion.
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Trump is a machine
He's speaking in Michigan right now, then flies to an appearance in Pittsburgh, and finishes in Virginia.
It's 8 frickin' PM people. It's going to be a very long night yet for Donald Trump.
The Donald is working for us like no one else.
The man is indefatigable.
Theoretical gun sales up 95% in Obama era compared to Bush
NICS firearm background checks totaled almost 78 million under George W. Bush, but under Barack Insane Obama that number has soared to 152 million, with two months still to go in 2016.
On a daily basis that's easily going to exceed 52,000 every day under Obama compared to 26,712 every day under Bush.
To see any Trump appearance over the last year . . .
. . . just click here for the Right Side Broadcasting You Tube channel. Everything is archived, and you can search by most recent, most viewed, etc.
Our un-American president Barack Obama comes perilously close to encouraging illegal aliens to vote without fear
He uses the slippery rhetoric, does he have any other kind?, that it is the simple act of voting which makes you a citizen.
Here, in response to a question also composed in slippery fashion to propose the hypothetical case of an "undocumented citizen" voting (an oxymoron), to which the president replies:
"When you vote you are a citizen yourself."
As John Podesta has reminded us via Wikileaks, it's Bill Clinton's 1993 motor voter law which is the mechanism preferred by the left to get illegals to vote:
On the picture ID, the one thing I have thought of in that space is that if you show up on Election Day with a drivers license with a picture, attest that you are a citizen, you have a right to vote in Federal elections.
As John Podesta has reminded us via Wikileaks, it's Bill Clinton's 1993 motor voter law which is the mechanism preferred by the left to get illegals to vote:
On the picture ID, the one thing I have thought of in that space is that if you show up on Election Day with a drivers license with a picture, attest that you are a citizen, you have a right to vote in Federal elections.
David Brooks, the sneering elitist Jew cuckservative at the NYT thinks globalization, massive immigration and feminism have been good for America
As long as by America you mean not whitey, otherwise known as the majority of the country.
Here:
DAVID BROOKS: So we had a lot of good things over the years that were really good for America. I think globalization has been really good for America. I think the influx of immigrants has been really good for America. Feminism has been really good for America. But there are a lot of people who used to be up in society, because of those three good things, are now down, a lot of high school-educated white guys. And they have been displaced.
Hillary's maid Marina Santos had illegal access to classified e-mails, both electronic and printed, and to classified faxes
Reported here:
As secretary of state, Hillary Clinton routinely asked her maid to print out sensitive government e-mails and documents — including ones containing classified information — from her house in Washington, DC, e-mails and FBI memos show. But the housekeeper lacked the security clearance to handle such material.
In fact, Marina Santos was called on so frequently to receive e-mails that she may hold the secrets to E-mailgate — if only the FBI and Congress would subpoena her and the equipment she used. ...
Just how sensitive were the papers Santos presumably handled? The FBI noted Clinton periodically received the Presidential Daily Brief — a top-secret document prepared by the CIA and other US intelligence agencies — via the secure fax.
A 2012 “sensitive” but unclassified e-mail from Hanley to Clinton refers to a fax the staff wanted Clinton “to see before your Netanyahu mtg. Marina will grab for you.”
Saturday, November 5, 2016
Liberal Jonathan Turley says media have spiked the "Clinton University" fraud story
Here:
As an academic, I find both Trump University and Laureate to be deeply troubling stories. Yet, only one has been pursued by the media to any significant degree.
If liberalism stands for dishonesty and lying as Pharrell Williams says . . .
. . . then election fraud cannot be far behind. And theft, murder, and treason.
Quoted here:
“Has [Hillary] been dishonest about things? Sure. Have you?” Williams said of Clinton, before insisting that “she don’t lie no more than any other politician does.”
Friday, November 4, 2016
Carrying the water for Democrats, the NY Times lies about "healthy job growth": Additions are more than 20% behind the 2015 rate
The Bureau of Labor Statistics states up front in this latest economic snapshot that additions to nonfarm payrolls are way behind the 2015 average in the first ten months of 2016:
Trump garners crowds on his own merits, Hillary needs celebs to get hers
Story here in USA Away, a newspaper so thin your parakeet will pee right through it.
Compared to October 2007, there are just 2.6 million more full-time jobs in October 2016
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| You talkin' to me? |
In October 2007 there were 122 million employed full-time, in October 2016 124.6 million.
Meanwhile part-time jobs are up 3 million over the period, from 24.7 million to 27.7 million.
That's an extra 5.6 million jobs total in 9 years, that's it. Population is up 21 million.
Way to go, Brownie!
Heh Heh Holy Shit: Stupid liberals can't even spell "syphilis", let alone "Mein Kampf"
Here.
Warning: Sneering anti-religious bigotry also on display in additon to the stupidity and vulgarity.
This morning's Electoral College prediction with 4 days to Election 2016: Clinton 298 to Trump 240
Clinton begins with 226 Electoral College votes on the Real Clear Politics map.
The average of the last poll and the polling average this morning indicates she wins FL (29) by less than 3 points, VA (13) by more than 4 points, PA (20) by 2.5 points, ME-2 (1) by more than 1 point, and CO (9) by more than 1 point.
Trump begins with 180 Electoral College votes and wins NC (15) by 3.9 points, NH (4) by less than 1 point, OH (18) by more than 4 points, IA (6) by less than 1 point, AZ (11) by 4.5 points, and NV (6) by 1 point.
The most recent polls are all tied up in NH, IA, CO and NV.
Clinton is ahead by only 2 points in the latest polls in PA and ME-2. Her margins in the averages are razor thin in FL (1.2) and ME-2 (0.7) and thin in PA (3.0) and CO (2.6).
Trump is ahead by only 1 point in the latest poll in GA (a phony to make him spend money there?). His margins in the averages are razor thin in NC (0.8), NH (1.5), and IA (1.4) and thin in OH (3.3) and NV (2.0).
Clinton's objective is clear: Take away NH, IA and NV from Trump and make him spend money in NC and OH.
Trump's objective is more daunting, to keep NC, NH, IA, OH and NV while pressing hard in PA, ME-2, FL and CO. Trump needs 30 more Electoral College votes to win, which he can get in a few ways, say by winning FL and ME-2, or he can win even if he loses FL by winning PA, CO and ME-2.
Clinton's vulnerability in PA, ME-2, FL and CO adds up to 59 Electoral College votes.
Trump's vulnerability in NC, NH, IA, OH and NV adds up to 49 Electoral College votes.
Thursday, November 3, 2016
Hillary lied to everyone about turning over all work-related e-mails: FBI finds such e-mails on Weiner's laptop which weren't
Destroying government property is a criminal offense in addition to the offense of obstruction of justice and committing perjury. Transmitting government communications to unauthorized civilian personnel is also an offense.
CBS News reports here:
The FBI has found emails related to Hillary Clinton’s tenure as secretary of state on the laptop belonging to the estranged husband of Huma Abedin, Anthony Weiner, according to a U.S. official. These emails, CBS News’ Andres Triay reports, are not duplicates of emails found on Secretary Clinton’s private server.
Bret Baier claims 2 sources in FBI say indictment likely in Clinton Crime Family Foundation pay for play scandal
Detailed here.
He mentions that Cheryl Mills' and Heather Samuelson's laptops are being plumbed. They were not destroyed after all.
As polls tighten Trump campaign has been proven right about PA but should focus on CO, NH and VA instead of MI, WI and NM
Clinton's lead in PA is down to 3.4. That would be a huge coup for Trump.
Clinton's lead in CO is down to 1.7, in NH 3.3 and in VA 4.7. Go for those.
Clinton's lead in MI is 5.7, in WI 5.4, and in NM 8.5. Pretty far out of reach with five days to go.
Trump is still very vulnerable in FL (+0.7), NC (tie), ME-2 (Clinton +0.7), OH (+3.3) and IA (+1.4), as he is in AZ and NV where he has improved to +3 and +2 respectively.
Wednesday, November 2, 2016
Like I said, Trump should concentrate on Virginia, not Wisconsin or Michigan: Real Clear Politics just moved Virginia to "Toss-up" this morning
Virginia now favors Clinton by only +4.7.
Michigan is now Clinton +7.
Wisconsin is Clinton +5.7.
Trump is wasting his time in Michigan and Wisconsin.
Tuesday, November 1, 2016
Trump is misspending some of his $25 million ad blitz: In Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and New Mexico in particular
Trump needs instead to spend money to retake NV, AZ, CO and NC from Hillary where she leads narrowly and shore up IA, OH, GA and FL where Trump leads narrowly.
He's NOT going to retake WI (Clinton +5.7), Michigan (Clinton +6.7), Pennsylvania (Clinton +6), or New Mexico (Clinton +8.5).
Dumb.
Story here.
Drudge is an idiot for calling Wisconsin a battleground based on a WaPo story which is trying to divert Trump's energies
Wisconsin is a distraction. Trump isn't going to win it, and Drudge is a fool for taking the bait and headlining this WaPo story:
Trump is losing Wisconsin to Clinton at this hour by 5.7 points because of #NeverTrump libertarians who follow radio talker Charlie Sykes. That guy's never been on Trump's side and never will be. Wisconsin "conservatives" follow a ridiculous Speaker Paul Ryan who thinks preserving Medicare for future generations is a conservative thing. That's Ripon Society Republicanism, Teddy Roosevelt progressivism.
Libertarian Gary Johnson is polling 6.3 there, way above his current national average of 4.6, accounting for all of Clinton's margin of victory.
Trump shouldn't waste any more time or resources on Wisconsin.
He'd have been far better off trying for Virginia where he is polling better than in Wisconsin, but it's too late for that, too.
Trump's path to the presidency (164 Electoral College votes currently) is through NV, AZ, CO, IA, OH, NC, GA and FL (110).
He might want to visit NH and ME-2 also if he has the resources, but the main battle is in the eight states shown.
If Republicans had any brains they'd be pointing out that GDP is running $2 trillion behind Bush and employment 6 million
But no, they have their heads up their ass because Trump talked about grabbing pussy.
Which proves that Republicans don't care about the economy and the middle class, only about their privileges under the establishment.
Which is why they hate Trump, because he does care.
Mark Levin waits until one week before Election 2016 to state that Donald Trump is more conservative than both John McCain and Mitt Romney on a host of issues
What a piece of shit Levin is.
At the end of the first half hour, tonight.
Trump campaign's travel schedule since 10/25/16 is hit and miss
Made/makes sense to visit:
NV (Clinton +1.0), 10-30
AZ (Clinton +0.6), 10-29, 11-2
CO (Clinton +4.0), 10-29, 10-30, 11-2
OH (Trump +2.5), 10-27
NC (Clinton +2.6), 10-26, 11-3
FL (Trump +1.0), 11-2, 11-3
No visits:
IA (Trump +1.4)
ME-2 (Clinton +2.0)
GA (Trump +3.6)
Made/makes no sense to visit:
PA (Clinton +6.0), 11-1, 11-3
MI (Clinton +6.7), 10-31
WI (Clinton +5.7), 11-1
NM (Clinton +8.5), 10-30, 11-2
Trump's path to victory is a surge in NV, AZ, CO, and NC, not MI
Trump's path to victory does not run through MI. Trump is wasting time and resources here.
With 233 Electoral College votes more or less in the bank as of today, the path to victory runs through NV, AZ, CO and NC instead.
He can overcome Hillary's +1 in NV, Hillary's +0.6 in AZ, Hillary's +4.0 in CO, and Hillary's +2.6 in NC. If he does he can win 274-264.
Trying to overcome Hillary's +6.7 in MI is a fool's errand.
Instead he ought to be trying to keep IA, where his lead is just +1.4, OH, where his lead is just +2.5, GA, where his lead is just +3.6, and FL, where his lead is just +1.0.
Whoever let Trump come to MI yesterday is a fool.
But it was probably Trump himself.
With one week until Election 2016, America is about to elect a crook, Hillary Clinton, president with 305 Electoral College votes
The Real Clear Politics map at this hour shows Clinton with 263 Electoral College votes in her column, Trump with 164, and 111 Toss-Ups.
NH, PA, VA, MI, WI, MN, NM and OR lean Clinton by an average of 6.55 points and are included in her total of 263.
IN, MO, TX and UT lean Trump by an average of 6.5 points and are included in his total of 164.
Based solely on the polling in the Toss-Ups, Clinton is set to win NV, AZ, CO, ME-2 and NC, giving her a total of 305, 35 more than the 270 she needs to win. Her average lead in the polls in these 5 is just 2.04 points.
Trump is set to win IA, OH, GA and FL, giving him a total of 233, 37 fewer than the 270 he needs to win. His average lead in the polls in these 4 is 2.13 points.
Clinton's margin nationally has fallen to +2.2 over Trump. Libertarian Johnson averages 4.6 points and Green Party Stein 2.1 points.
Hillary is creaming Trump on the radio with 15 times as many ads in the last ten days of October
Inside Radio reports here:
In terms of actual spot numbers, that’s 18,791 for the Democratic candidate and just 1,245 ads for the Republican nominee. The study covers 85 markets across the country.
Through October 28 Hillary has outspent Trump on TV and radio 2.75 to 1
From Advertising Age's 37th installment on campaign spending to date:
But for now Sec. Clinton and pro-Clinton PACs are miles ahead of Mr. Trump and pro-Trump PACs in the TV-and-radio ad game. The tally right now (including primary season and the general election): $436.4 million spent by Clinton and her allies vs. $158.5 million spent by Trump and his allies -- $594.9 million in all.
Through mid-September Clinton had outspent Trump on television 5.85 to 1
Reported here:
According to a Bloomberg analysis, through Sept. 13, Clinton had spent $109.4 million on TV ads, compared to $18.7 million for Trump. Clinton hit the airwaves two months sooner than Trump.
Steve Gruber was a boor to Nicole Gelinas this morning
They had an argument over Gelinas' thesis that Trump's fiscal policies are stimulative like Obama's and will dramatically widen deficits without spending cuts.
When Gruber gave her the last 20 seconds he talked over her response instead.
Bad form old boy.
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