Tuesday, November 1, 2016

Trump's path to victory is a surge in NV, AZ, CO, and NC, not MI

Trump's path to victory does not run through MI. Trump is wasting time and resources here.

With 233 Electoral College votes more or less in the bank as of today, the path to victory runs through NV, AZ, CO and NC instead.

He can overcome Hillary's +1 in NV, Hillary's +0.6 in AZ, Hillary's +4.0 in CO, and Hillary's +2.6 in NC. If he does he can win 274-264.

Trying to overcome Hillary's +6.7 in MI is a fool's errand.

Instead he ought to be trying to keep IA, where his lead is just +1.4, OH, where his lead is just +2.5, GA, where his lead is just +3.6, and FL, where his lead is just +1.0.

Whoever let Trump come to MI yesterday is a fool.

But it was probably Trump himself.