Interest Expense on the National Debt Outstanding

Per the US Treasury, here:

Fiscal year 2011 will top $434 billion.

Radiation Readings 3km from Fukushima Plant as High as 68 Microsieverts/Hr on 9/22/11

As reported here:

Latest Fukushima Map Shows Four Radiation Hotspots NW of Nuke Plants

As shown on today's map from mext.go.jp/ here, air measurements continue to show values from 15 to 31 microsieverts per hour northwest of the crippled nuclear plants on the coast at four locations beyond the 20 km evacuation zone:

For comparison, note that Iitate, Japan, continues to post values quite a bit lower in the vicinity of 2.6 microsieverts per hour, but that normal values should be more like 0.11 in all areas.

Fukushima International Association Stops Reporting Iitate Radiation Figures

The air measurement of radiation in Iitate, Japan, which remains stubbornly high compared to other areas at 2.59 microsieverts per hour, was routinely published here at the English version of the Association's website through September 9, 2011:

As of September 10th, Iitate has been de-listed from the report, along with three other reporting points:

Rush Limbaugh Slams Obama's 'Peace is Hard,' Forgets Bush's 2004 'Hard Work' Remarks

"We don't elect presidents expecting them to tell us how damn hard the job is." 

-- Rush Limbaugh, Thursday, September 22, 2011, reacting to Obama's comments to the UN that Mideast peace is hard.

I guess Rush doesn't remember these lines from George W. Bush from the first 2004 presidential debate with Senator John Kerry:

"In Iraq, no doubt about it, it's tough. It's hard work. It's incredibly hard.

"I understand the serious consequences of committing our troops into harm's way. It's the hardest decision a president makes.

"There's a lot of good people working hard.

"I work with Director Mueller of the FBI; comes in my office when I'm in Washington every morning, talking about how to protect us. There's a lot of really good people working hard to do so. It's hard work.

"And now we're fighting them now. And it's hard work. I understand how hard it is. I get the casualty reports every day. I see on the TV screens how hard it is. But it's necessary work. And I'm optimistic. See, I think you can be realistic and optimistic at the same time. I'm optimistic we'll achieve -- I know we won't achieve if we send mixed signals. I know we're not going to achieve our objective if we send mixed signals to our troops, our friends, the Iraqi citizens. We've got a plan in place. The plan says there will be elections in January, and there will be. The plan says we'll train Iraqi soldiers so they can do the hard work, and we are. And it's not only just America, but NATO is now helping, Jordan's helping train police, UAE is helping train police. We've allocated $7 billion over the next months for reconstruction efforts. And we're making progress there. And our alliance is strong. And as I just told you, there's going to be a summit of the Arab nations. Japan will be hosting a summit. We're making progress. It is hard work. It is hard work to go from a tyranny to a democracy. It's hard work to go from a place where people get their hands cut off, or executed, to a place where people are free. But it's necessary work. And a free Iraq is going to make this world a more peaceful place.

"You know, every life is precious. Every life matters. You know, my hardest -- the hardest part of the job is to know that I committed the troops in harm's way and then do the best I can to provide comfort for the loved ones who lost a son or a daughter or a husband or wife. You know, I think about Missy Johnson. She's a fantastic lady I met in Charlotte, North Carolina. She and her son Bryan, they came to see me. Her husband PJ got killed. He'd been in Afghanistan, went to Iraq. You know, it's hard work to try to love her as best as I can, knowing full well that the decision I made caused her loved one to be in harm's way.

"There are 100,000 troops trained, police, guard, special units, border patrol. There's going to be 125,000 trained by the end of this year. Yes, we're getting the job done. It's hard work. Everybody knows it's hard work, because there's a determined enemy that's trying to defeat us.

"I understand how hard it is to commit troops. Never wanted to commit troops. When I was running -- when we had the debate in 2000, never dreamt I'd be doing that.

"We've done a lot of hard work together over the last three and a half years. We've been challenged, and we've risen to those challenges. We've climbed the mighty mountain. I see the valley below, and it's a valley of peace."

Wasn't George W. Bush re-elected shortly after these debate remarks?

Feds Drop Short-Barreled Rifle Charge Against Hutaree Member

As reported here:

Federal prosecutors have dismissed a gun charge against Hutaree militia member David Brian Stone Jr. Prosecutors filed a motion Friday in federal court in Detroit that says "the ends of justice would best be served by this dismissal." It does not elaborate.

The charge alleged Stone Jr., who is the adopted son of Hutaree leader David Brian Stone, had a short-barreled rifle that wasn't registered.

"The ends of justice would best be served . . .."?

Uh huh.

If the Feds had a case you can bet they would have tried to make it.

They didn't have one. 

Smartest President Ever Says We Built The Intercontinental Railroad

Ah, that would be transcontinental.

Andrew Malcolm for The LA Times, here:

"We’re the country that built the Intercontinental Railroad," Barack Obama.

That's what the president of the United States flat-out said Thursday during what was supposed to be a photo op to sell his jobs plan next to an allegedly deteriorating highway bridge.

A railroad between continents? A railroad from, say, New York City all the way across the Atlantic to France? Now, THAT would be a bridge!

It's yet another humorous gaffe by the Harvard graduate, overlooked by most media for whatever reason. Like Obama saying Abraham-Come-Lately Lincoln was the founder of the Republican Party. Or Navy corpseman. Or the Austrian language. Fifty-seven states. The president of Canada. Etc.

"[Obama's] probably the smartest guy ever to become president."

(Michael Beschloss, Harvard MBA, presidential historian, interviewed on Don Imus in November 2008, transcript and appropriate commentary mockery here.)

No wonder Obama keeps his college transcripts sealed.

"How does a bad student go to Columbia and then to Harvard?"

Obama vs. Bush: Initial Claims for Unemployment Compared

Hundreds of thousands of people lose a job every week, year in and year out, and file a first-time claim for unemployment benefits. The federal government keeps track of that information and reports it weekly, here. You can examine it for yourself by following the link at the bottom of that page at the US Department of Labor.

What follows is the Obama record of such claims (150 weeks so far-November 2008 to present) compared with the Bush record (417 weeks-November 2000 through October 2008), showing the seasonally adjusted number of weeks in which 200,000 or more filed a claim for first time benefits, 300,000 or more, and so on up through 600,000 or more.

Generally speaking, first time claims in the 300,000s is consistent with an economy where people lose a job and find a new one within the usual period of benefits, which customarily has been limited to 26 weeks (6 months). Hence the usual advice of financial advisers to save money equivalent to 6 months' expenses. At the same time, net new workers enter the workforce as the population grows in size, and they also find work under those conditions.

200,000+ (Obama: 0 weeks; Bush: 14 weeks) -- longest consecutive streak: Bush with 7

300,000+ (Obama: 8 weeks; Bush: 304 weeks) -- longest consecutive streaks: Bush with 104, 61, 30, 24

400,000+ (Obama: 86 weeks; Bush: 98 weeks) -- longest consecutive streaks: Obama with 52, Bush 23

500,000+ (Obama: 35 weeks; Bush: 1 week) -- longest consecutive streak: Obama with 20

600,000+ (Obama: 21 weeks; Bush: 0 weeks) -- longest consecutive streak: Obama with 18

Unless initial claims soon recede below 400,000 per week and stay there, Obama will easily beat Bush's two term record of first time claims at the 400,000+ level in just one term. And so far, 60 percent of Obama's time in office has been spent with unemployment at catastrophically high levels week after week, whereas under Bush it was just 6 percent of the time.

James Altucher Talks Up Optimism, and Five Stocks He Doesn't Own!

Here.

Give me a break! Put your money where your mouth is, bro!

Apple, Exxon Mobil, Walmart, Amazon and Google: This year's dinosaurs are next year's tank of gas. It's happened before, and it will happen again. Maybe not right away, but Steve Jobs will die. The Arabs will try another embargo over Israel. Companies depending on relatively cheap transportation and distribution will experience tighter margins. And we can't predict the future, but a world where energy costs more is a world where electricity usage puts free operations like Google between a rock and a hard place.

On the macro side James Altucher really shows his colors: securitization without mark-to-market. You can't have the one without the other. He must be reading too much Steve Forbes.

Have fun stormin' the castle!

The Economy Is Not The Same Thing As The Market, Or Is It?

Mark Hulbert reminds everyone here that the DOW quadrupled between July 1932 and March 1937.

He thinks analogists should think about that when drawing doomsday scenario parallels. He's surely correct that smart investors could make a lot of money if today's market replays the DOW from that period in The Great Depression.

But that's one hell of a big "if".

I don't buy the analogy.

For one thing, the Shiller p/e ratio then had fallen way below 10 to the near rock bottom levels near 5 once seen in 1920-1921. Today we're still around 19.

And then there's the little matter of GDP.

Having fallen from $103.6 billion in 1929 to $58.7 billion at the end of 1932, GDP began to rise again in 1934, reaching $91.9 billion by the close of 1937. From the GDP low of $56.4 billion in 1933, GDP rose nearly 63 percent in just four years of the DOW's five year cyclical bull recovery in that secular bear during the 1930s. Today growth is mired in the vicinity of 1 percent, after a decade of average annual growth of 1.67 percent. That was a raging fire then. We've only lit a match.

The depression of 2008-2009 was much too small by comparison to 1929-1940 to draw any meaningful parallels: a 46 percent drop in GDP over four years today would mean reducing our $15 trillion economy by nearly $7 trillion. We didn't drop even a half trillion dollars from GDP in 2009. And the last time the p/e ratio got close to the low 1921 and 1932 levels was in 1982.

We've had a little depression. A little growth and a little gain in the markets would seem to follow.

But since government can screw up a two-car funeral, anything is possible. 

Michael Moore: Another Leftist Threatening Violence

As reported here:

"The smart rich know they can only build the gate so high. And, and, sooner or later history proves that people when they've had enough aren’t going to take it anymore. And much better to deal with it nonviolently now, through the political system, than what could possibly happen in the future, which nobody wants to see," Michael Moore said on Current TV's "Countdown" program.

Moore was alluding to riots, which he was discussing with "Countdown" host Keith Olbermann prior to his comment to deal with things nonviolently now.

He should be arrested and prosecuted for conspiracy to commit mob action.

Fukushima Radiation Hysteria Lives on at Naked Capitalism and Washington's Blog

The latest example is here.

For a self-described moderate, Yves sure does showcase a lot of left-liberalism, conspiracy theory, anti-capitalism and fear-mongering.

I can't take her claim to moderation seriously. I think it's meant to deceive. She's obviously working for the other side, so much so that for her, even socialist Bernie Sanders is a Quisling.

Maybe she's a moderate communist: Who else would link to Gorbachev's NYT defense of Russia's war in South Ossetia?

So, You Think You Should Buy On This Dip?

The Shiller S and P price to earnings ratio stands tonight at 19.42, as here, still way above the historic middling 16.

I can remember people calling it the buying opportunity of a lifetime, at around 15, in March 2009. Why isn't this the selling opportunity of a lifetime?

The S and P is down over 10 percent year to date, down less than one-half of one percent in the last 12 months when QE II got underway, and down 14 percent in the last five years despite QE I and II. Not counting (negligible) inflation on the negative side, nor (declining) dividends on the positive side.

Since 1881 opportunities to sell around 20 outnumber opportunities to buy around 10, but not by much: the ratio is roughly 11 to 9, in my post-prandial bliss.

This is still a selling opportunity.

Steve Forbes: Shill for the Banks, Defends TARP and Suspension of Mark to Market Rules

And just to be consistent, recommends the same to Europe now, here.

Why, if government can conjure $7 trillion in money creation from $700 billion in TARP investments, why don't we just dispense with private capital altogether and let governments do this all the time?

Then people all over the world can enjoy perpetual unemployment while Steve and his clones get filthy stinking rich because they're first in line for the easy money.

Great idea, Steve! Until your precious banks implode under their own weight.

It can't happen soon enough. 

I Don't Like Felix Salmon's Chart. I Like My Chart.

His chart here makes it look like what's been going on since 1995 has been part of one relentless long term uptrend, the sanguine implication of which is that we should stop worrying if we are long term investors:

My chart shows that since the beginning of 1995 the trend supercharged into what people call, for lack of a better description, irrational exuberance, so named by Alan Greenspan himself at the end of 1996, whose own Federal Reserve management arguably makes him the very author of it:

You'd entirely miss that from Felix's chart.

There is no reason why stocks should be down today, as Felix says, except that from the long term perspective an S and P 500 index in the vicinity of 800 looks like a more fair valuation than 1200. The market has twice tried to tell us that, in 2002-2003 at the 775 level, and again in 2008-2009 at the 675 level.

It may be getting ready to tell us something similar again.

What say 575?

Libertarians Are Nuts: Transparent, Principled Representation Is Easily Stopped

Usually by a pair of tits or testicles, or ambition, greed or personal animus.

"Transparent, principled representation—supported by grassroots networks and promoted through social media—is becoming an unstoppable force," says a Republican libertarian would-be star in a fundraising letter.

That's pretty transparent all by itself. Dangle hope, and raise money. Reminds me of a certain prominent Democrat's recent campaign, which is bumping up against the unstoppable force of failure and its discontents.

Like all good ideologies, the libertarian one assumes people are essentially good and will do the right thing more often than not, if the politician but sets a good example and gives everyone all the information. A child of his age is this one, worshipping at the altar of Education, which the more one has, the better one is.

Why, one wonders why the founders bothered separating the powers of government at all, seeing how history teaches us how good men are.

"But what is government itself, but the greatest of all reflections on human nature? If men were angels, no government would be necessary. If angels were to govern men, neither external nor internal controls on government would be necessary. In framing a government which is to be administered by men over men, the great difficulty lies in this: you must first enable the government to control the governed; and in the next place oblige it to control itself. A dependence on the people is, no doubt, the primary control on the government; but experience has taught mankind the necessity of auxiliary precautions."

-- James Madison, Federalist No. 51

At least my libertarian has declined to run for the Senate. For now.

Having gone from daddy's business to one term in the state House and one term in the federal House, that would be just too obvious.

Besides, it takes millions to run for the Senate, and right now, the coffers are looking a little light for another House run in a redrawn district which will be more Democrat than before.

Which explains statements like this: "I always vote for the side that increases our personal and economic freedoms—regardless of party."

Tracking left, where the votes are, where he belongs.

Shared Sacrifice: Moochelle Sports New Diamond Jewelry

Where else? At a fundraiser!

As reported here:

Moochelle's New $42K Diamond Cuffs

Two Big Reasons I Support Rick Perry

Here.

Federal Reserve Says 'Let's Twist Again, Like We Did Last . . .1961'

In another effort to reduce longer term interest rates, those from six years to thirty, evidently aimed at the mortgage market, which remains in ICU.

Expect short term interest rates to increase as short term instruments are sold by the Fed and replaced with longer term bonds on the Fed balance sheet.

Complete coverage here at Bloomberg.com.

And just for fun, here's Chubby Checker:

My Congressman, Rep. Justin Amash, Is Way Out There.

At least he's in right field, sort of:

Story here.

It was reported on Monday here that Rep. Amash has endorsed Rep. Ron Paul for president.

I see that mycongressmanisnuts.org is still available.