TRUE BORN SONS OF LIBERTY

Thursday, October 8, 2026

Down, down, down he goes, where he stops nobody knows

Trump new low approval 37.6%.

Two cheers for Rahm Emanuel

Washington Needs the Tax-Reform Spirit of '86

Rahm Emanuel, Wall Street Journal

This is really great, as far as it goes. I agree with much of it.

The trouble with it is that it is unimaginative about investment, which is to say Rahm Emanuel looks only at what affects his proposals might have to hobble investment, not at what would turbocharge investment, specifically domestic investment.

He says not one word about how the Reagan Tax Revolution sabotaged the arbitrage which used to exist between higher ordinary income tax rates and lower and longer capital gains tax rates, the arbitrage which fueled domestic investment growth before globalization lured capital away.

Rahm wants to raise revenues by raising the current capital gains tax rate of 20% closer to the current ordinary income tax rate near 28% when what he should be doing is proposing a mechanism to ensure more of that investment is domestic and he doesn't.

He claims to be most interested in restoring the real growth which followed upon the 1986 tax reform, but he ignores the fact that rates of growth have steadily fallen since then.

The gap between real GDP growth to 1984 extrapolated to the present time and the actual real GDP growth since 1984 is today $11 trillion.

That's $11 trillion which could have been taxed to fund the spending which has otherwise put us $40 trillion in the hole.

The long term consequences of the Reagan Revolution have been not just a fiscal disaster, but a growth disaster.

America needs more Democrats like Rahm Emanuel who are t h i n k i n g.

Donald Trump is Marco Rubio's Thumos personified

... he grows worse from having power: he becomes and is of necessity more jealous, more faithless, more unjust, more friendless, more impious, than he was at first; he is the purveyor and cherisher of every sort of vice, and the consequence is that he is supremely miserable, and that he makes everybody else as miserable as himself. ...

-- Plato, Republic IX

Who picks an acropolis and then digs a bunker?

You can spot the place where Marco was interrupted by the game on TV while he was writing his little speech because in his thumos he left an incomplete sentence behind

Ah, the thrill of victory, and the agony of defeat:

Marco Rubio, student of Wikipedia lol, suddenly warms to Platonist philosopher and biographer Plutarch

But what about the welders, Marco?

And even today's Greeks know that Western law is far more Roman than it is Greek.

Marco is what the Athenians would have called a spermologos:

Some also of the Epicurean and Stoic philosophers met Paul. And some said, "What would this babbler say?"

-- Acts 17:18

The MAGA boobeoisie is taking Marco seriously, which is even funnier than Marco himself, but he's still trending way behind International Lesbian Day.

Rubio Urges Defense Of Western Civilization At Acropolis: "We Choose The Unapologetic Pursuit Of National Power"

... "Many people are surprised to learn that the most commonly cited author in the Federalist Papers was not an Enlightenment philosopher or political theorist. The most commonly cited author in the Federalist Papers was Plutarch," Rubio said. "Athens gave us democracy. Plato and Aristotle gave us Western philosophy. Our ideas of law, of virtue, of citizenship and republic and government were shaped in the Greek city-states." ...

Wednesday, October 7, 2026

Strong dollar at 102, gold holding above $4k, long USTs in the 5s, stocks holding near all-time highs, 10-year inflation expectations 2.36% lol

So, it's not 2022 anymore.

Tuesday, October 6, 2026

If there's a better metaphor for Trump's Golden Age I don't know it: Bonds have been at their very worst in the whole history of the country ever since Donald J. Trump entered politics

Sep 2016-Sep 2026: -2.23% per annum nominal.

Compare VUSTX discussed in a previous post: 10-year total return per annum through 9/30/26 at -2.20%.

It's eerie.

Anyway yields at 5+% now portend better times ahead for good old American bonds, eventually.

SPX in the headlines today

S&P 500 posts first close above 7,800, boosted by tech gains and cooler yields

A look at the S&P 500′s remarkable and defiant trip to a new record

Abdul to Trump: I dare you to be stupid enough to elevate me with your presence

El-Sayed to Trump: "I Dare You To Come" Campaign In Michigan

LOL it's not about governing, it's about skimming the $7+ trillion which flows through their fingers

Doug is such a puppy.

If Democrats Win, Would They Be Able To Govern?

Schoen & Cooperman, The Hill

... if the Democrats do win, it will be from collecting protest votes, not from offering solutions. ... Voters, having cast ballots over costs and inflation, will judge the new majority against those issues, which Democrats will largely be powerless to address. ...

Which will it be, Doug, a protest vote, or a vote on the economy?

Make up your mind.

Mike Benz lights his hair on fire about $3 billion from USAID funding a full-on Truman Show in Brazil's $2.6 trillion economy

OK Mike.

Brazil Was a Full on 'Truman Show' Propped Up by USAID

Mike Benz, The Benny Show

As usual with American news stories about the riots in France, they deliberately hide the role of immigrants, and this time the role of the left fueling the immigrant riots

Student riots engulf France as far-right presidential frontrunner Le Pen vows fiscal turnaround

CNBC furnishes this photograph sending the message that it is ethnic French confronting the police, not African Muslims:

They're not showing you the truth.

October 3, 2026:

Riots spread from Paris’s immigrant suburbs across France

France struggled to contain riots that grew out of school protests in Paris suburbs with large immigrant populations, with schools set ablaze, police attacked and around 5,000 people arrested.

Saint-Denis, Aubervilliers and Pantin were among the centers of the unrest in Seine-Saint-Denis, northeast of Paris. Immigrants accounted for roughly 32% of the department’s population in 2020–2021, according to national statistics agency INSEE. French-born residents with at least one immigrant parent accounted for a further 32%. ...

France’s suburbs have repeatedly been the starting point for nationwide unrest involving young people from immigrant families. In 2005, three weeks of riots followed the deaths of two teenagers of African descent hiding from police in an electricity substation. In 2023, the police killing of Nahel Merzouk, a teenager of North African descent, triggered another wave of violence. ...

And today:

How will the riots change France? The violence has dark implications for the political and demographic future of the country

... For the right, the images of crowds dominated by immigrant-descended young people burning down ornaments of the French republic without fear of the forces of order feels like an early Christmas gift. ... it is easy for voters to see crowds with few white faces in the news and interpret this as representative across urban France. Without data easily available, the truth can be whatever you want it to be.

... The protests which began in lycée Saint-Exupéry in the Créteil banlieue of Paris before steadily spreading across France, caught the government by surprise in their scale and intensity. They have also shocked the French public by the high representation of second and third generation immigrants in the protests, and by the direct participation of elected officials from Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s hard left La France Insoumise (LFI) party in the riots.

... The most shocking thing for the general public is not just the violence and the damage itself, but the openness with which Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s party has aligned itself with the aims and the means of the protests.

From the very beginning of the protests, LFI politicians have been present at the school gates — something that would be seen as shocking particularly to a British audience. ...

If Republicans were smart they'd run on SPX hard for the remainder of the campaign because it's all they've got

S&P 500 rises to record high as oil and yields move lower

Yields aren't significantly lower, oil is $88 and $98, and USA gasoline is $4.32.

Year-to-date trade deficit of $138.2 billion was still off nearly 20% from the same period a year ago

Trade deficit hits $105.6 billion, widest since just before Trump tariffs enacted last year

VUSTX New All-Time Low

And it doesn't look like we're done, either.

VUSTX New All-Time Low

$8.34 Black Monday Oct 19, 1987

$7.44 Tuesday Oct 31, 2023

$7.08 Monday Oct 5, 2026

Total return, 3-years, Sep 30, 2026: +0.97%. 10-years: -2.20%.

Monday, October 5, 2026

Globalization obviously hit America hardest after 1999 when total hours worked by all workers as a percentage of civilian population plunged as manufacturing jobs leaving the country became a flood, but people pretend not to see

1970-1985 sucked pretty bad though, long before the current suckiness which tastes like nothing so much as that era.

A country that doesn't work is a poor country.

But of course globalization after 1984 meant the good paying manufacturing jobs started to dry up because patriotic American businessmen relocated them to cheaper labor countries in East Asia.

😏

People naively promote "arctic shipping routes" which do not really exist when less than 1% of global tonnage runs through the north because IT'S FROZEN MOST OF THE YEAR

Dennis Hastert has left the building

Dennis Hastert, disgraced former House speaker, dies at 84

... In 2013, the FBI and IRS began investigating the former speaker surrounding suspicions that he was illegally structuring bank transactions. In 2015, Hastert was indicted for structuring bank transactions to evade reporting requirements and making false statements to the FBI.

Hastert pleaded guilty in 2015 to violating banking laws by making repeated large cash withdrawals, which were revealed to be going to one of his victims. During the hearing, Hastert admitted to sexually abusing boys during his time as their wrestling coach. At his sentencing, U.S. District Judge Thomas M. Durkin called Hastert a "serial child molester," and sentenced him to 15 months in prison, a $250,000 fine and ordered him to participate in a sex offender program. Hastert was not charged with sex-related crimes, as the statutes of limitations had expired. He served 13 months in a federal prison before his release in 2017. ...

Lutnick whistleblower reported dead by suicide

Banker Who Exposed Howard Lutnick's Ties to Epstein Warned of 'Retaliation' and 'Personal Consequences' in Last Post Before Suicide

Whistleblower Who Exposed Trump Goon’s Ties to Epstein Found Dead

Hypocrite Abdul El-Sayed tried to get more money into his Michigan politics by attending a Jeffrey Soros fundraiser in California on September 28th, but had a stopover in Seattle where anti-Trump law firm Perkins Coie is located

... "The last year has been about bringing together folks around our shared goals to get money out of politics, put money back in Michiganders' pockets, and pass Medicare for All," El-Sayed said in an April campaign statement.

But the Democratic nominee is facing Republican criticism after attending a high-dollar fundraiser in California hosted by Jeffrey Soros, a film producer and nephew of billionaire Democratic donor George Soros.

Jeffrey Soros and his wife, Catharine, hosted the Sept. 28 event at their West Hollywood home along with several other prominent Democratic and entertainment industry figures, including former Obama administration officials and "Pod Save America" hosts Jon Favreau, Tommy Vietor and Ben Rhodes.

A fundraising invitation reported by Fox News listed contribution levels of up to $57,800 to the Abdul for Michigan Victory Fund, a joint fundraising committee supporting El-Sayed's campaign and aligned Democratic organizations. ...

CBS reported here.

I'm sure it's nothing, nothing at all, it's just Monday

China shuts hundreds of banks as Beijing moves to shore up its financial system

All U.S. bombers leave UK air base on concerns of suspected terror plots; more tankers struck near Iran

Russia plague: What we know about the suspected case reportedly linked to a lab worker’s death

Russia hospitalizes almost 200 people after researcher’s death from plague: Reports

Sunday, October 4, 2026

$200 million worth of oil isn't moving for $35k/day anymore

Saturday, October 3, 2026

LOL The Wall Street Journal Editorial Page tries to intimidate the Fed while putting lipstick on a pig

The chutzpah of these people.

They mince the data for five paragraphs and then spring a zinger in the last one.

Total nonfarm was up only 29,000 seasonally adjusted in September, but civilian employment was up 406,000 you see.

A Burst of New Workers in September

Wall Street Journal

The labor force grew by 485,000, and most of those found work.

... The labor report should have no bearing on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision later this month. In any case, the Fed should stand pat this close to an election, as we’re confident Chairman Kevin Warsh understands.

Meanwhile:

... the threshold for a statistically significant change in the household survey is about 650,000. ...

But we can play the game, too.

The civilian employment level seasonally adjusted is certainly higher than when Trump was elected in November 2024, but what The Wall Street Journal won't say is that civilian employment is still lower than when Trump took office in January 2025, and still lower now than it was for most of 2025.

The positive change to the civilian employment level of 2025 is yesterday's news. We've had nine consecutive months of negative change in 2026.

It hasn't been a booming economy for employment since Christmas. And in fact it has been contracting.

Does Abdul want to be a senator or the mayor of Dearborn?

It's gonna be nothing but "Jews and Arabs, Arabs and Jews" for six straight years with this guy.

What's even dumber than credit card debt?

... Mark Ratchford, a business school professor at Tulane University who studies consumer behavior related to home equity, says that a lot of people are doing the calculation in their head, and they are noting that if the cost of borrowing is that high, they just won’t do it. Ratchford says he is among those now feeling the pain as a consumer.

“I need to remodel my kitchen, but when I look at the price and the interest rates, I can’t afford that. I’ll just wait, that is the whole housing market now,” Ratchford said. “People are skipping cosmetic improvements and only doing the work they need to do.”

The high cost of borrowing has squashed the fixer-upper market too.

“Five to 10 years ago, people would flip houses, they would buy properties, do the work and then sell it for a profit, but that is less of a thing now. People are not buying fixer-uppers. The cost of borrowing and doing upgrades has gotten so high they can’t do it,” Ratchford said.

Even when consumers do have home equity or HELOCs available, they aren’t pouring that money into new cabinets. “If you are using home equity, HELOCs, you are not using it for home improvements, you are using it to cover credit card debt,” Ratchford said. ...

More.

Friday, October 2, 2026

Trump low approval high disapproval records from this morning fall by this evening

Just 38.2% approve.

60.3% disapprove.

Kpler declares Middle East crude oil exports excluding Iran recovered to pre-war levels, at at least 16.5 mbpd in September

The transit mechanisms have changed dramatically as Iran has perpetrated 123 vessel incidents since March 1 to date. Vessels run dark turning off AIS, vessels conduct in-theatre ship-to-ship transfers, U.S. naval forces provide protected escorts, and states increasingly by-pass Strait of Hormuz by using pipelines.