Sad!
Trump tells CNBC: ‘I don’t care’ if Iran negotiations are over
... But when asked if he has reached out to NATO to participate in reopening the strait, Trump said, “They would if I wanted them to, but I’m not sure I want them to.” ...
Monday, June 1, 2026
In March Pete Hegseth couldn't decide if Iran's military was merely decimated or totally devastated, and now Trump tells us Iran's military wasn't really hurt at all
Humpty Dumpty says words mean whatever he says they mean.
Meanwhile I'm quite certain nine in ten members of Iran's military prefer decimation to devastation.
Tim Carney doesn't mention why the bad polling results for Republicans and Trump on the economy started already in May 2025
The word "tariff" does not appear in this column lol.
... But the bad polling trends for Republicans and Trump generally started late last year, before the attack on Iran. The right-track-wrong track numbers started souring last May.
It’s reasonable then to suspect that Trump’s other problems — including stubborn inflation (aside from gas prices) and his family’s sketchy business dealings — are harming the GOP. This pre-Iran trend also suggests that the numbers won’t simply reverse if the Strait of Hormuz reopens and gas prices fall.
The Republican Party’s problem is deeper than gas prices, and so things won’t get better before November. The only question is whether things get worse.
Oh yeah, Iran wants to make a deal so badly it now threatens to shut down the Red Sea on top of the Persian Gulf
U.S. intercepts Iran missiles targeting American forces in Kuwait: CENTCOM
Treasury yields rise after Iran reportedly stops communication with U.S.
U.S. oil jumps more than 7% on report Iran will halt talks with U.S. and completely block Hormuz
U.S. oil prices jumped nearly 8% Monday, after Iranian state media said Tehran will halt talks with the U.S. and completely close the Strait of Hormuz in response to Israeli attacks in Lebanon. ...
Tehran will completely block the Strait of Hormuz and open other fronts including the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Tasnim reported. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is a trade chokepoint that connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. ...
Former Fed Chair Jerome Powell accepts Profile in Courage Award
Fed’s Powell warns Trump’s political ‘stress test’ will wreck public trust in central bank
... “If any administration finds a way to remove Fed officials over policy differences, then future administrations will do so as well,” Powell said while accepting the John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award. “The public would lose faith that the central bank will make decisions based only on what’s best for all Americans.” ...
Sunday, May 31, 2026
Gold and silver are still up 5+% year to date
SPX +10.52% ytd
WTI +53.11% ytd
Meanwhile in April:
Hamburger +18.9% yoy
Coffee +29.0% yoy
Unleaded regular gasoline +28.0% yoy
Electricity +7.2% yoy
Natural gas +3.1% yoy
[Trump 9/21/2024: "We will cut your energy prices in half. Mark it down . . . within 12 months . . ."]
Milk +1.5% yoy
Whole Chicken -1.6% yoy
Eggs -56.1% yoy
Tomatoes +50.0% yoy
And:
30-year mortgage average monthly, above 6% since August 2022
Full time jobs above 50% of population just 6 of the last 25 quarters, all under Joe Biden
Because he's Mad King Ludwig, that's why
Fentanyl BAAAAAAAAAAD, Ecstasy GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOD.
Why Trump reversed course to fast-track psychedelic drugs for mental healthcare
Saturday, May 30, 2026
Meanwhile CNBC has an excellent story with great interactive graphs of vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait before and after the Houthi and Iran conflicts
And it's quite clear that the Iran war has had no real effect on the number of vessel transits through the Bab-el-Mandeb while destroying transits through the Strait of Hormuz.
Increased Saudi reliance on Yanbu on the Red Sea might change BAM transits in the future, but to what extent transits through SoH might recover is very difficult to say.
BAM transits never recovered from the Houthi threat, and SoH transits may not from the Iran threat, with serious implications not just for oil but for important bulk materials like fertilizer and helium.
SoH transits:
Feb 24 2026: 107.29
Apr 18 2026: 12.57
May 24 2026: 6.00
BAM transits:
May 24 2023: 82.86
Feb 26 2026: 40.14
May 24 2026: 38.14
Oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz might not return to levels seen before the Iran war
... Daily traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, collapsed by more than half from 75 ships on Nov. 19, 2023 to 31 vessels by January 30, 2024. More than two years later, traffic through the strait still has not returned to the levels once considered normal. ...
Quite the howler from CNBC this morning: Closure of Strait of Hormuz keeps 100 million barrels a day from reaching global markets lol
Global oil production in 2025 was about 106 million barrels per day.
The Persian Gulf share of that was about 31 million barrels per day.
Analysis: The Iran war has made inequality worse. An end won’t fix it
Friday, May 29, 2026
When 86 is the good news
The sum of the average prices of five ingredients for your April 2018 BLT (bacon, lettuce, tomato, lightly toasted white bread in butter) is 86-cents less in April 2026 than it otherwise would have been if it had increased as much as overall inflation has increased, up 27% instead of 33%.
Don't spend it all in one place.
Jeff Bezos disposed of some your personal income last night lol
I mean, you blow yours on fireworks, why shouldn't he?
Thursday, May 28, 2026
Middle East tanker transits May 21-27, 2026: Strait of Hormuz 2.3/day, Bab-el-Mandeb Strait 15.6/day
SoH E averages 1.3/day
BAM SE averages 7.3/day
Trump inflation is Bush-league: PCE inflation goes boing, core PCE inflation 3.3% year over year takes us back to early 1992
And you remember what happened to Bush 41 in 1992.
 |
| boing |
 |
| Trump's core pce inflation is Bush-league (41!) |
Real GDP in 1Q2026 second estimate revised lower from 2.0% annualized to 1.6% annualized "primarily reflecting downward revisions to investment and consumer spending" lol
I guess those trillion$ Trump said were coming into the country have not come in, and consumer spending is higher only because everything costs so damn much more due to inflation.
May 21: Consumers are still spending, but cracks are starting to show
Dec 5: Trump touts over $20 trillion in new U.S. investments, but the numbers don't add up
 |
A191RL1Q225SBEA: 1Q1984-1Q2026 Trend |
Uganda closes border with Congo where as many as 220 already may be dead from Ebola
... The number of suspected cases in eastern Congo is nearing 1,000, with at least 220 suspected deaths. Congo’s health ministry on Tuesday said 101 cases have been confirmed, and they are looking into over 3,000 possible contacts. ...
More.
Wednesday, May 27, 2026
Donald Trump is the leader of the Party of Violence
... MMA was once considered so savage that at the turn of the century, unlike pornography and other controversial fare, it wasn’t even carried on pay-per-view in many places. Now, the UFC is so mainstream that CBS, a network that on Saturday nights once aired Dr. Quinn, Medicine Woman, is showing Swanson club Landwehr’s cranium with his right hand, knocking him out in the first round. ... The UFC packs arenas around the world, and the most powerful person on the planet, right beside White, is its promoter in chief. ... Across the room [of White's office in Vegas] are two pistols. One barrel is cloaked in a red bible cover, the other in a black one. “Those two books have killed more people than any handgun ever made,” says White. “I am very antireligion.” ...
When I was a kid we used to laugh at boys with girly names like Dana.
Maybe Dana White's masculinism is as simple as that.
The good news is that the phony Chip Roy lost, the bad news is that the crook Ken Paxton won
But! it will not be without humor, and with any luck Cornyn will serve out his term impeding Trump's impulses.
Nothing screams conservatism like production and consumption
FDR merely gave you a check every month in your retirement, but conservatives gave you gas.
Tuesday, May 26, 2026
Middle East tanker transits May 19-25, 2026: Strait of Hormuz 2.4/day, Bab-el-Mandeb Strait 16.4/day
The table shown below is from JMIC Update 50.
The previous update was JMIC Update 48, the table in which in comparison with the one in 47 looked hopelessly screwed up, so I guess they just skipped an Update 49 and started fresh on May 19 lol.
There is no overlap in the table in 50 with the previous table, which has been the customary procedure from update to update.
BAM NW averages 8.7/day, BAM SE 7.7/day.
Keep in mind NW tankers which transit north to fill at Yanbu, then leave and transit south again can thus become SE transits in addition to NW transits in the totals. Most of these tankers are making this round trip, and most of them are 2-million barrel capacity very large crude carriers which sail in empty and sail out again full.
SoH E transits average just 1.6/day.
Russia informs Rubio what's good for the goose is good for the gander, plans decapitation strikes to get Zelenskyy after Rubio flubs up and signs his death warrant by ending talks
Russia tells Rubio U.S. citizens should leave Kyiv ahead of strikes on Ukrainian capital
... Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov “officially informed” Washington that Russia would be launching “systematic and consistent strikes” against Ukrainian military facilities and what Moscow called “decision-making centers,” in a call with Rubio on Monday, according to the Russian government. ... Rubio told journalists on Friday that U.S.-led efforts to negotiate a peace deal had ended, explaining that previous talks “were not fruitful.” ...
Yeah, Iran is blinking so hard it's laying more mines in the Strait of Hormuz ROFLMAO
U.S. conducts ‘self-defense strikes’ in Iran as Trump pushes for peace deal
... CENTCOM spokesman Tim Hawkins said targets included missile launch sites and Iranian boats attempting to emplace mines. ...
Why is the winner pushing for a peace deal?
Usually the loser does that.
Iran is in the ‘process of blinking’ over the Strait of Hormuz, Petraeus says
Monday, May 25, 2026
Trump offers a poison pill to sabotage everything
Trump links Abraham Accords to Iran deal
Again, why did the squirrel cross the road?
Failure of nerve: Trump's ceasefire has only made Iran stronger with each passing day and their negotiating position its strongest in 47 years
Hostilities lasted 38 days.
Today is the 48th day of the ceasefire, the chicken-out.
Asia is sucking fumes.
Europe is buying from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve and will be in trouble similar to Asia in June, and the US itself will develop problems in July.
Oil market at ‘tank bottoms’ in Asia, and Europe isn’t far behind, warns market veteran Jeff Currie
... “I would say, Asia, you’re there. Europe, give it about another month, and look for July being a problem in the U.S.,” Currie said. ... “Every day that goes by, Iran’s negotiating leverage compounds. Why? Because inventories of oil and inventories continue to drop,” he said. “The minute you think you won, that’s exactly when you know you probably lost, and their negotiating position at this point has never been stronger in the last 47 years.”
Sunday, May 24, 2026
Saturday, May 23, 2026
Trump's White House director of communications tells off former Trump Secretary of State, who is rightfully worried about today's Iran peace deal rumors
One of the more disgraceful displays of the second term.
Friday, May 22, 2026
Kilmar Abrego Garcia is a free man
... Sean Hecker, Abrego’s attorney, said that his client “is a victim of a politicized, vindictive White House and its lawyers at what used to be an independent Justice Department. We are so pleased that he is a free man. Justifiably so.” ...
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index at 44.8 has never been lower
... Gallup’s findings were echoed by University of Michigan data released Friday that showed consumer sentiment falling to its lowest point since the survey began in 1952. ...
-- WaPo
The index of consumer sentiment fell to 44.8 from a preliminary reading of 48.2. It’s also well below the 49.8 level seen at the end of April. ...
But it's the Golden Age!
Robert Kagan: Trump seems to hope to slip away without Americans noticing the magnitude of this defeat
Which is exactly what Trump did a year ago in the Red Sea.
Beyond the near term endgame Kagan describes, and the isolation of Israel in particular, Trump's cowardice, weakness, and incompetence will have the unintended consequence of reinvigorating the climate and green energy madness which has already weakened the West.
From the story here:
... In a phone call
with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu yesterday, Trump
reportedly explained that the United States was negotiating a “letter of
intent” with Iran that would “formally end the war and launch a 30-day
period of negotiations” on Iran’s nuclear program and the reopening of
the Strait of Hormuz. The purpose and effect of such an agreement should
be clear: The United States is walking away from the crisis.
... Trump has blinked many times in the confrontation with Iran—ever since
March 18, when Israel attacked the Pars gas field and Iran retaliated
with a strike against Qatar’s most important natural-gas-production
facility. Trump then called for a halt on U.S. and Israeli targeting of
Iran’s energy infrastructure, and the war effectively ended.
... [Iran's] terms for a settlement are those of a victor: They demand war
reparations, no limits on uranium enrichment, recognized control of the
strait, and an end to sanctions. For Trump to respond to this defiance by now calling for another 30 days of cease-fire and talks is a tacit admission of defeat.
... with 30 more days to heal, rearm, and fill its coffers with tolls, Iran will be a more formidable adversary. In 30 days, moreover, the new Iranian strait regime may already be firmly in place. As the Institute for the Study of War reports,
Iran has been using the cease-fire period [since April 7] to “normalize” its control
over the strait by “compelling oil-importing countries” to establish
transit agreements with Tehran and charging fees on vessels from nations
without such deals.
... Now that Trump has made clear he has no intention of fighting to reopen
the strait, the stampede to get good terms with Tehran will begin.
... By the end of 30 days, most of the world will have a stake in the new
arrangement and will oppose any resumption of hostilities, even in the
unlikely event that Trump wanted to go back to war. Trump no doubt hopes that he can slip away without Americans noticing the magnitude of this defeat.
... The president may also hope that he can change the subject by launching
another military operation, this time against the government in Cuba. ...
Republican Congress critters got the hell out of town Thursday and won't be back until June and left all this unfinished business in their wake lol
Republicans lash out over $1.776B ‘anti-weaponization’ fund
McConnell slams Blanche over ‘slush fund to pay people who assault cops’
Republicans punt on reconciliation amid furious disagreement over ‘anti-weaponization’ fund
House Republicans fume at Senate for punting immigration funding package
House punts Iran war powers resolution vote
Trump approval among Republicans at new low in Fox News poll
Trump, facing GOP blowback, sends 5,000 troops to Poland
(Trump orders withdrawal of 5,000 troops from Germany amid feud with Merz)
Thursday, May 21, 2026
Yesterday's reported week over week US drawdown of 17.8 million barrels of crude oil was the largest on record
The announcement was made as usual at 1030 hours.
To head off a price increase in oil Trump at 1052 hours announced that the US was in the "final stages" of the negotiations with Iran, which was a load of crap.
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