Tuesday, May 10, 2022

The biggest investing lie of our times: "A host of factors ... has made U.S. equities an attractive place to park money and earn nice returns"

 CNBC, here.

S&P 500, average real return per annum, dividends fully reinvested:

August 2000 through April 2022, 21 years, 8 months . . . 4.6%;

The 21 years, 8 months previous to that, December 1978 through August 2000 . . . 12.35%. 

At 4.6% it takes about 15.5 years to double your money, at 12.35% just under 6 years, which means under current circumstances you haven't yet doubled your money twice, whereas previously you would have doubled it 3.6 times.

The stellar real returns to the August 2000 top have been cut down since then from 12.35% to 8.41%. How long will it be before they are cut back to 6.44%, the long term real return from January 1871 to December 1978?

The odds are not very long.

Those stellar returns of the second half of the 20th century are an artifact of The Great Depression lows. To achieve them again will require another one.

Safety check, Vern.



If 42% of your wealth comes from the stock market, YOU ARE AN IDIOT and deserve everything that's coming to you

 The is-is-ought fallacy in action.

“In the last 20 years, we’ve had a financial economy that has grown significantly,” said Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist for the Americas at Natixis. “You could have argued a few decades ago that the stock market was not the economy, and that was very accurate. That is no longer the case today.” ...

Through the end of 2021, the share of household wealth that comes from directly or indirectly held stocks hit a record 41.9%, more than double where it was 30 years ago, according to data from the Federal Reserve. A host of factors, from the advent of online trading to stock-friendly monetary policy to a lackluster global economy, has made U.S. equities an attractive place to park money and earn nice returns.

Asset allocation is about diversification, and if 42% of your wealth is tied up in stonks, YOU ARE NOT DIVERSIFIED, no matter how diversified is the stock portion of your portfolio.

The Talmud had it right: One third in hand, one third in land, and only one third in business.

Be it then, as Sir Robert says, that anciently it was usual for men to sell and castrate their children, Observations, 155. Let it be, that they exposed them; add to it, if you please, for this is still greater power, that they begat them for their tables, to fat and eat them: if this proves a right to do so, we may, by the same argument, justify adultery, incest and sodomy, for there are examples of these too, both ancient and modern; sins, which I suppose have their principal aggravation from this, that they cross the main intention of nature, which willeth the increase of mankind, and the continuation of the species in the highest perfection, and the distinction of families, with the security of the marriage bed, as necessary thereunto. 

-- John Locke, First Treatise of Government

42 is not the answer to everything.



 

Monday, May 9, 2022

America is complicated

 

 

In August 1765, Andrew Oliver, Massachusetts administrator of the Stamp Act, had his home and offices ransacked by angry Bostonian members of what became the Sons of Liberty. The British did little to protect him, and he had to compromise because he was outnumbered.

There are laws on the books today prohibiting intimidation of Supreme Court judges, but US federal authorities, controlled by Democrats, are doing little to stop protesters in front of Judge Kavanaugh's house.

Instead of complaining about it, maybe conservatives need to get in their face instead of acting like indignant but effete Loyalists.

It's all about having the numbers, and having the will to act. Otherwise, the law is an ass.

Sunday, May 8, 2022

Remember when Biden said that that stuff happens when protesters followed Senator Sinema into the bathroom while she did her business in the stall?

At least he said that was inappropriate.

But now his administration has taken a worse stance, in regard to protesters who are demonstrating in front of the doxxed addresses of the members of the US Supreme Court.

He hasn't called it inappropriate, and officially the administration won't take a position on where protests should and should not occur.

This is the sort of ugliness which leads people to forgo public service, and the worse public officials who replace them to assemble their own security forces.

Private armies can develop that way, which become a threat to the civilized order.

If you think I'm exaggerating the slippery slope here, imagine the guffaws heard all around when I was a kid when occasional firebrands then predicted there would be widespread public vulgarity, pornography, open homosexuality, gay marriage, anti-white racism, trillions of dollars in public debt, hostility to the police, refusal by the authorities to prosecute crimes, complete politicization of the FBI, CIA, DOJ, yada, yada, yada.

The reason they don't teach history much anymore is they don't want you to know how really far we have fallen.

Otherwise you might do something about it.

And we can't have that, now can we?

Protesters march to homes of Kavanaugh, Roberts...

Activists follow Sinema into bathroom...

White House Won't Condemn Doxxing of Supreme Court Justices

Michigan AG Says She Won't Enforce State Abortion Ban If Roe Overturned 

Pro-Peking hardliner becomes leader of Hong Kong in rigged election

 

Hong Kong's John Lee: Ex-security chief becomes new leader

The pest in North Korea is becoming more problematic

South Korean defense officials said the missile fired on Saturday appeared to have been launched from an actual submarine, unlike some tested in the past, which were believed to have been fired from underwater platforms. North Korea has only one known submarine capable of launching a ballistic missile, with a single launch tube, but it has been developing a new one with greater capabilities, according to the South Korean military.

A bit of good news from North Carolina

 NC cops fatally shoot man who threw Molotov cocktails at precinct...

The incident started around 1:20 p.m. when the unidentified suspect began lighting cars on fire in the police parking lot with the incendiary weapons, officials said at a press conference.


Wackjob AOC has nothing better to do than agitate for removing former NYC Mayor Ed Koch's name from the Queensboro Bridge

Jim Owles LGBT Democratic Club, whose boss, Allen Roskoff, had resentment towards Koch over his handling of the AIDS epidemic, is one of the people working for the name removal. Others include Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Rep. Jamaal Bowman, the news outlet reported.

More.



Saturday, May 7, 2022

More than 90% of abortions are for reasons other than rape, incest, or life of the mother

Just 1% of women obtain an abortion because they became pregnant through rape, and less than 0.5% do so because of incest, according to the Guttmacher Institute.

 
Seven percent of women cited health concerns for themselves or possible problems affecting the health of the fetus as their most important reason in 2004, about the same as in 1987. 
Reasons U.S. Women Have Abortions: Quantitative and Qualitative Perspectives
 
And you know what "problems affecting the health of the fetus" means. The 7% figure hides a lot of Down Syndrome abortion and the like. 
None dare call it eugenics.

Friday, May 6, 2022

49.8% of civilian population had full time jobs in April 2022: Potential room for at least 9.9 million more full time at year 2000 experience

On average in 2022 to date, there were 130.871 million employed full time at average civilian noninstitutional population level of 263.382 million, for 49.7% employed full time on average through April 2022.

Think of all the work we could be doing in this country, but are not.

 


This story is mostly noteworthy for its failure to mention even once China's massive effort to expand its strategic nuclear weapons capability

 China's Troubling New Military Strategy Coming Into View...

Wednesday, May 4, 2022

Markets laugh out loud at The Fed's half point rate increase

 

The Fed only pretends to fight inflation.

Groomers have ever been loathsome


 Where a child finds his own parents his perverters, he cannot be so properly born, as damned into the world.

-- Robert South (1634-1716)

Monday, May 2, 2022

Saturday, April 30, 2022

Brother Buchanan recognizes that Putin's "nuclear threat" is implied, not explicit

 

Are Putin & Co. bluffing with this implied nuclear threat?

More.

What Pat gets wrong is that Putin hasn't threatened to use "tactical atomic weapons". Putin's threats are deliberately ambiguous and not specific. But they are linked to the new tests and deployment of hypersonic delivery systems, which can carry nuclear or conventional warheads. Putin thinks his hypersonic missile is "the most powerful handgun in the world".

Putin is Dirty Harry.

But what's in the gun? 180gr jacketed hollow points or 320gr flat-nose?