Thursday, February 11, 2016
Little Jebbie Bush's March to the Sea: We will be worse off with Trump than we are now with Obama
Quoted here, destroying whatever possibility there might have been for a truce between the Establishment and Trump:
“We will be worse off than we are now” with Trump as president, Bush said.
That's rich coming from someone who profiteered off of Obamacare while the rest of us were trying to stop it.
Emerson poll, touted as most accurate in Iowa by brain surgeons Limbaugh and Hannity, was 33% more inaccurate in New Hampshire than average
But the Emerson poll was worse, off 18.9%, which was 33.1% more off the mark than the average miss.
Emerson underestimated Trump by 12.2%, Kasich by 17.7%, Cruz by 6% and Christie by 18.9%. It overestimated Rubio by 13.2%, and Little Jebbie by a whopping 45.5%. Average miss: 18.9%.
Republican New Hampshire Primary polling was off on average by 14%
Final New Hampshire result v Real Clear Politics poll average:
Trump 35. 3 v 31.2, underestimated 11.6%
Kasich 15.8 v 13.5, underestimated 14.6%
Cruz 11.7 v 11.8, overestimated 0.9%
Bush 11.0 v 11.5, overestimated 4.5%
Rubio 10.6 v 14.0, overestimated 32.1%
Christie 7.4 v 5.8, underestimated 21.6%
Average miss: 14.2%
Wednesday, February 10, 2016
Chris Christie dropped out of the race today, notably on friendly terms with Donald Trump
Reported here:
“I think that Chris did an amazing job in terms of the debate, as a prosecutor, and he’s a friend of mine,” Donald Trump said Wednesday on MSNBC’s Morning Joe. “And he actually called me last night, and we had a long talk, and he’s a little disappointed because he really did do a great job, he did an amazing job during that debate,” he added.
The current El Nino now qualifies as a very strong one, but not as severe as 1997-98
The current El Nino now qualifies as a very strong one because there have been three consecutive measuring periods at 2.0 or greater on the Oceanic Nino Index: 2.0, 2.2 and 2.3.
This is the third very strong El Nino since 1950.
For the current three month measuring period it averages 2.166, in the middle between the similarly measured 1982-83 El Nino averaging 2.033, and the 1997-98 episode averaging 2.266.
The latter event was 11.5% more severe in the current three month period than the '82-'83 episode, and the current event is only 6.5% more severe.
The 1982 episode lasted fifteen months and averaged 1.3 on the index, the 1997 episode lasted thirteen months and averaged 1.56, and the current episode is now ten months in duration averaging 1.41.
Little Jebbie spent $36 million in New Hampshire to come in . . . fourth
Reported here:
Cruz’s third-place finish also reflected badly on Rubio and Bush. Cruz spent less than $600,000 in the state yet finished ahead of fourth-place Bush who, between his super PAC and campaign, spent as much as $36 million on television. Rubio spent about $15 million and finished in a close fifth.
Trump buries #2 Kasich by almost 20 points in New Hampshire, Sanders staggers Clinton by 22
The race was called at 8:05 PM last night with just 4% of the vote counted.
Here are the results this morning with 88% of the vote counted.
Here are the results this morning with 88% of the vote counted.
Tuesday, February 9, 2016
Supreme Court decision staying EPA power emissions rule means states likely to win in court
So reports The Hill, here:
The decision means that the EPA cannot enforce the rule until the litigation against it is finished.
It also means that the court believes that the states, companies and groups suing the EPA are likely to win their case when its merits are considered.
A big victory for electricity from coal and for Laurence Tribe: Supremes stay EPA rule implementation shutting down 53 plants
The New York Times reports here:
WASHINGTON — In a major setback for President Obama’s climate change agenda, the Supreme Court on Tuesday temporarily blocked the administration’s effort to combat global warming by regulating emissions from coal-fired power plants. ... “We are thrilled that the Supreme Court realized the rule’s immediate impact and froze its implementation, protecting workers and saving countless dollars as our fight against its legality continues,” said Patrick Morrisey, the attorney general of West Virginia, which has led the 29-state legal challenge. ... In a second filing seeking a stay, coal companies and trade associations represented by Laurence H. Tribe, a law professor at Harvard, said the court should act to stop a “targeted attack on the coal industry” that will “artificially eliminate buyers of coal, forcing the coal industry to curtail production, idle operations, lay off workers and close mines.” ... Mr. Tribe added that the plan “will cause the closure of 53 coal-fired plants in 2016 and another three in 2018.”
Laugh of the Day: Marco Rubio partisan Frank Luntz says Trump has to win New Hampshire by a minimum of 15 points
Rush Limbaugh here:
Frank Luntz is the guy bandying it about, that if Trump does not win by a minimum of 15, that he may as well consider it a disappointment.
As usual Rush Limbaugh gets it wrong, this time on the Emerson poll in Iowa and in New Hampshire
Here today:
There's an Emerson poll. The Emerson poll has... What does the Emerson have? Emerson poll has a shock. Find the Emerson poll. Emerson poll. Bush in second place and Rubio slipping to fourth, and everybody says, "Emerson poll? What the hell is the Emerson poll?" It's a student poll. Okay, so why does it matter? Well, because they called Iowa. Yeah. Emerson was the only polling outfit that said Trump was not gonna win Iowa. It had Trump and Cruz finishing in a tie.
No. And No.
Emerson had the Iowa race tightening to nearly even, but Trump was still +1 in the Emerson. Three major polls showed Trump reversing Cruz' lead, and all the polls after the first Emerson poll showed Trump winning. Even the Des Moines Register got it wrong. And of course Rush never mentions Cruz' cheating in Iowa against Carson and how the math involved mentioned by Karl Rove easily could have made the difference to Trump winning instead of Cruz.
And in New Hampshire, as we pointed out yesterday, Bush was second in the Emerson over a week ago but has DROPPED 2 points. Even Hannity is repeating similar drivel today about the Emerson poll. Bush in second according to the Emerson poll isn't news.
And there ends this episode of Dumb and Dumber.
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| Iowa polling |
RNC and Marco Rubio linked to law firm thought to be behind New Hampshire voter shaming letters
From the story here:
LawNewz.com dug through publically available records, and found the group is linked to a well-known DC lobbying/election law firm, which as recently as 2012 had ties to the Marco Rubio campaign.... Federal Election Commission records reveal that as recently as 2012, the Marco Rubio campaign paid this law firm for services. Bloomberg reports that in 2011-2013 election cycle, the Republican National Committee and Senator Marco Rubio’s campaign, spent $1.7 million for the firm’s services. LawNewz.com reached out to the Rubio campaign as well as the law firm for comment, but have yet to hear back. It is unclear if Rubio made any recent payments to the firm or any of their LLCs this election cycle.
The real polls are open in New Hampshire, but the pollsters were still furiously polling up to the last second
Trump was last +15.9 in the Real Clear Politics average, but rose to +16.3 last night and now +17.2 this morning.
Enough already!
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| as of 9PM Monday night |
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| as of 9AM Tuesday morning |
Monday, February 8, 2016
Jeb Bush is a total hypocrite about eminent domain, taking an old man's home from him in 2005 when he was Florida Governor
As Governor of Florida, Jeb Bush in 2005 used eminent domain to take 70 year old Jesse James Hardy's house and 160 acres he built and owned since 1976.
It was harsh, unlovely land, miles from anything, with rocky ground, slash pines, swamp cabbage and sand gnat swarms so thick he had to hold his breath. No electricity or sewer or water. Hardy built a shed, then a house. Dug a well. For 30 years, nobody bothered him. Now they won't leave him alone. ...
Hardy spits fire when he talks about having to move next month to his new $750,000 house that has just a few more amenities than the rustic cabin he built in the Everglades with his own sweat more than a quarter-century ago.
Here's Bush in last night's New Hampshire debate:
But what Donald Trump did was use eminent domain to try to take the property of an elderly woman on the strip in Atlantic City. That is not public purpose, that is down right wrong. And here's the problem with that. The problem was, it was to tear down -- it was to tear down -- it was to tear down the house...
If Drudge had paid attention to the Emerson poll he'd have known Bush has DROPPED in it
The story here from Emerson which Drudge links to reports Bush in second with 16%. The trouble is a week ago he was second in the Emerson poll at 18%, so he's fallen!
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| Actually Bush has dropped in the latest Emerson poll to 16%, tho still in 2nd |
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| Bush was in second with 18% previously in the Emerson poll |
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