Wednesday, February 10, 2016

The current El Nino now qualifies as a very strong one, but not as severe as 1997-98

The current El Nino now qualifies as a very strong one because there have been three consecutive measuring periods at 2.0 or greater on the Oceanic Nino Index: 2.0, 2.2 and 2.3.

This is the third very strong El Nino since 1950.

For the current three month measuring period it averages 2.166, in the middle between the similarly measured 1982-83 El Nino averaging 2.033, and the 1997-98 episode averaging 2.266.

The latter event was 11.5% more severe in the current three month period than the '82-'83 episode, and the current event is only 6.5% more severe.

The 1982 episode lasted fifteen months and averaged 1.3 on the index, the 1997 episode lasted thirteen months and averaged 1.56, and the current episode is now ten months in duration averaging 1.41.

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