Saturday, July 2, 2022

US COVID-19: The Big Picture through June 2022

 Deaths per day in 2022 through June are now down to 1,050 as June has flatlined relative to May with 363 deaths per day vs. 373.

But contrast those admittedly welcome figures with influenza deaths per day 2010-2020 at about 93 on average and even at this much improved level COVID deaths are still ~4x higher.

Trying to learn anything from the case data is increasingly difficult due to increased self-testing at home, but it looks clear that cases are up again as Omicron sub variants mutate to be more spreadable.

Total cases monthly in 2022:

Jan 20.3 million

Feb 3.95m

Mar 1.07m

Apr 1.25m

May 2.89m

Jun 3.33m.

It makes sense that deaths are at their lowest in 2022 in May and June with cases at their lowest in March and April since deaths are a lagging indicator. The case increases in May and June portend higher death figures come July and August.

We averaged 1.68 million cases monthly in 2020, and 2.88 million monthly in 2021. Monthly cases in 1H2022 average 5.46 million.