Sunday, March 11, 2018

Laugh of the day: Trump's goal is reportedly 208,333 new jobs every month for 10 years

So says the story at The Daily Caller here.

Har har HAR........dee har har.

After 16 months (November 2016 inclusive through February 2018) the actual monthly rate of gain has been 182,500.

If you prefer from inauguration month instead of election month (January 2017 inclusive through February 2018), 14 months, the actual monthly rate has been 177,214.

February 2017 inclusive, first full month of presidency, through February 2018, 13 months, the rate has been 175,461.

From the post-recession low in February 2010 (not inclusive), exactly 8 years ago, through February 2018 the actual monthly rate of gain has been 192,197.

So by no measure of Trump's performance is he yet anywhere near the actual average performance post-recession of 2007, let alone near his own goal.

The best overall performance in living memory was under Bill Clinton when monthly gains averaged over 242,000 monthly over 8 years. But this coincided with the peaking of the Baby Boom in 1957 clocking in 20 years in the labor force by the end of the Clinton era, in 1999. The Baby Boom fueled the Clinton boom in every way, from jobs to housing to GDP, and also the stock market.

It's been all downhill from there.

Since peak total nonfarm employment in February 2001, just before the recession of that year through February 2018, the economy has added only 75,500 jobs a month. 

Good luck to Mr. Trump, but the demographic odds are not in his favor, on top of the headwinds from his own immigration policy.

In this context Trump's stated goals do not reflect knowledge of reality or self-knowledge, only hubris.