Thursday, November 1, 2018

Real Clear Politics predicts Republicans taking the Senate 52-48 in its no toss-ups map with 5 days to go

Hard as it is to believe, AZ has gone wobbly with Democrat wack job Kyrsten Sinema ahead in the average of the polls by 0.7 points. AZ deserves the military pilot who never crashed her plane to be its next senator, Republican Martha McSally.

Evidently Arizona is suffering from too many Californians. Let's hope they're all high on meth next Tuesday.

In ND Republican Kevin Cramer is well ahead of the Democrat incumbent by an average of 11.4 points.

In MO Republican Josh Hawley is ahead of Democrat incumbent Claire McCaskill by an average of 2 points. A Republican victory would be sweet revenge against the dirty trickster.

Toss-ups other than AZ and MO include the following:

Republican Dean Heller is ahead by 2 points on average in NV.

Democrat John Tester is ahead in MT by 4.2 points on average.

Democrat incumbent Joe Donnelly is in trouble in IN, hanging by a thread by 0.8 points on average.

And Democrat Bill Nelson is still ahead in FL with a 2 point advantage over popular governor Rick Scott.

Republicans are otherwise longshots in New Jersey, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota. The corrupt do-nothing Democrats in New Jersey and Michigan especially deserve to be unseated.

With 5 days to go to the election, US House races too close to call now number 34 at Real Clear Politics

Based on the latest dated poll in each race, US House races as of this morning shake out as follows:

Of 34 toss-ups, Democrats are polling ahead in 18 races by an average of +2.83;

Republicans poll ahead in 10 races by an average of +2.50;

5 races are tied, and 1 race has no polling at all.

Democrats are otherwise slated as likely to take 203 seats and Republicans 198.

If the voters vote as the polls predict in the toss-ups, Democrats would take 221 seats, Republicans 208, with 5 tied and 1 unpredictable.

The margin of error in these polls, however, is quite high, often 4 to 5 points.

24 of the 34 races are as close as 0-2 polling points.

218 is needed for a majority.

Wednesday, October 31, 2018

Ann Coulter remembers what day this really is


Rasmussen generic Congressional survey has Democrats at 47%, Republicans at 44%, 3% for other, 6% undecided

The stated margin of error is plus or minus two points.

Reported here:

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone and online survey finds that 47% of Likely U.S. Voters would choose the Democratic candidate if the elections for Congress were held today. Forty-four percent (44%) would opt for the Republican. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are undecided.

Tuesday, October 30, 2018

One week out, Democrats are very narrowly set to take the US House 219 to 210 with 6 races tied

With 204 seats already likely going Democrat according to Real Clear Politics, 15 toss-up seats tonight are favoring Democrats in the very latest polling, but only by the slimmest of margins, +2.46 per race on average:

MN-1
NV-3
NV-4
CA-10
CA-39
CA-45
FL-26
FL-27
IA-3
IL-6
NJ-7
NY-19
NY-22
VA-5
VA-7.

Five of these are one-point races, six are two-point races.

For their part Republicans are set to take 199 seats, with 11 toss-ups in their column with an average polling advantage per race of +3.27 in the last poll:

CA-25
CA-48
KS-2
KY-6
MI-8
NC-9
NJ-3
PA-1
TX-7
TX-32
WA-8.

Five of these also are one-point races, with just one two-point race.

Six seats remain all tied up in the latest poll in each race:

FL-15
ME-2
MI-11
MT-at large
NM-2
UT-4.

Monday, October 29, 2018

PA-1 goes dramatically from Democrat +7 to Republican +1 in the latest poll, UT-4 remains tied

The Utah poll previously showing the race tied runs through 10/26, but a different poll on 10/25 has just been reported showing the Democrat +7.

My rule is to use the latest poll for the math, so I'm making no changes. On top of that, the Democrat +7 result looks really suspicious given the large number of likely voters it claims to have polled, all in just one day! The untimely release is also a flag. They can poll nearly a thousand people in one day but it takes them four to report the results? Looks more like polling as publicity for the candidate in the final week of the campaign than anything else.

The Pennsylvania poll showing the big flip to the Republican is noteworthy because it's the very same poll which showed the Democrat so far ahead just two weeks earlier.

The math had been 220 Dem, 210 Rep, 5 Tied.

So PA-1 shifts that to 219 Dem, 211 Rep, 5 Tied.

Every Jew a .22, and every Christian a Smith&Wesson


NM-2 goes from Republican to tied in latest poll, CA-25 flips dramatically to Republican +4, VA-7 goes Democrat +1 from tied

The electoral math based on the last poll in each toss-up race had been 220 Dem, 210 Rep, 5 Tied as of last night.

So the new tie in NM-2 means the math becomes 220 Dem, 209 Rep, 6 Tied.

But CA-25 changes that to 219 Dem, 210 Rep, 6 Tied.

And VA-7 changes that to 220 Dem, 210 Rep, 5 Tied.

Real Clear Politics this morning shows 30 toss-up races, and otherwise gives the Democrats 205 to the Republicans' 200.

5 of the toss-ups are polling tied, 10 are polling Republican, and 15 are polling Democrat.

The average polling lead in the 15 Democrat toss-ups is 2.73 points.

The average polling lead in the 10 Republican toss-ups is 2.9 points.

These polls typically have a margin of error much higher than 2 to 3 points, so this is shaping up to be quite the narrowly fought contest rather than a wave election.

Democrats would be doing better had they not fielded so many extreme candidates.

Sunday, October 28, 2018

Drudge is wrong: The deadliest anti-Semitic attack in US history didn't occur in Pittsburgh, not by a longshot

The deadliest anti-Semitic attack occurred in 1939 when FDR refused to let the MS St. Louis of the Hamburg America Line dock with its over 900 Jewish refugees from Hitler's Germany.

The ship eventually had to return to Europe and it is estimated that over 200 of its Jews ended up being exterminated in the camps.

So much for the Jewess's sonnet:

"Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"

Real Clear Politics removes NC-13 and NM-2 from toss-ups column, both now lean Republican

That reduces the toss-up races to 29 but the forecast math still shows the Democrats taking control of the US House 220-210 with 5 races tied based on the latest poll in each toss-up race. NC-13 and NM-2 were already in the Republican column based on the polling and so they were already Republican in the math.

With only one full week remaining in the campaign, expect the polling to become more predictive.

But as always, the only poll that counts is the one taken on election day.

Meanwhile in Chicago, Rahm Emanuel's town, 9 shot and killed last week, 42 in October and 420 in 2018 so far


Saturday, October 27, 2018

Elizabeth who?


Obama flashes solidarity with white nationalists during anti-Trump tirade in Wisconsin


A guy just slaughtered a bunch of Jews in Pittsburgh but Twitter thinks it's still OK to give this guy a platform


Paul Gottfried has read Antifa's wunderkind Mark Bray and finds that there's no there there, just slogans

Proving once again that PhD's aren't what they used to be. Maybe it's time to draft them. 


Despite its obvious incompatibility with the dominant political culture, the alt-right seems to have rallied philosophically deeper thinkers than the slogan-chanting adolescents who swarm around [Mark] Bray. ...

Bray’s Left has nothing in common with the Left that existed in interwar Europe. His field and passion are gender studies and “fighting racism.” These were hardly the major interests of anarchists and Marxists in the 1930s. Back then the Left was serious about a socio-economic revolution and showed no noticeable interest in identity politics or LGBT self-expression. It may even be a bit of a stretch to relate antifa activism to the protests in the 1960s that I personally witnessed. The demonstrators at that time opposed a prolonged war in Vietnam into which they might be personally dragged; others protested segregation, which really existed in some parts of the country. What similarly deep cause is driving Bray and his allies? I can’t seem to find one other than seizing power or simply letting off steam.

Time Magazine article rightly speaks up for American nationalism as modeled from The Bible

The upshot is that we need to get reaquainted with the Bible in our public schools, eject opponents of our common law from the judiciary, and speaka da English.


Ancient Israel was, for generations of Bible-literate Americans, the prototype of a “nation.” ...

While biblical nations aren’t defined by race, they are also not merely “an idea.” Biblical Israel consists of a diversity of tribes, who are nonetheless bound to one another by language and law, and a mutual loyalty arising from facing adversity together in the past. ...

American nationalists used to think of their nation in just this way: Neither as a race, nor as an abstract “idea” — but rather as a diversity of tribes sharing a heritage and a mutual loyalty born of a joint history. The original American states, while internally diverse, nonetheless largely shared the English language, Protestant religion and the common law, and had fought Britain together. ... 

American nationalists sought to counterbalance increasing diversity with a carefully protected common cultural inheritance: New territories were admitted as American states only once they had an English-speaking majority and adopted the common law. The eradication of slavery in the South and polygamy among the Mormons was likewise the result of a common cultural inheritance, descended from English Puritanism, which Americans insisted on maintaining even at the price of coercion. It was not until after World War II that these core institutions at the heart of classical American nationalism — Biblical religion, the Anglo-American legal inheritance, and the English language — began to fade. 

Little-reported story about 2016 election survey found 38% of whites expressed strong feelings of white solidarity


The survey included 3,038 non-Hispanic white respondents. Among these respondents, only a minority expressed high values on any of the above questions: about 28% expressed strong feelings of white identity; about 38% expressed strong feelings of white solidarity; and about 27% felt that whites suffer a meaningful amount of discrimination in American life. A much smaller minority, about 6% of respondents, expressed all three opinions. It is worth noting that a 2017Washington Post-ABC News poll estimated that about 10% of respondents supported the Alt-Right.

In other words, the alt-right has a lot of work to do if it's going to convince the other 62% of whites to embrace their white identity.

On the other hand, the civilian non institutional white population in 2016 averaged 198.215 million people, 38% of which is 75.3 million "white aware" Americans.

From the Jews behaving badly file: Donna Zuckerberg recommends red pillers be quarantined online

That's right, put 'em in a ghetto, you know, like in Warsaw.

The sister of Mark Zuckerberg, discussed here, who doesn't "write classics" anymore than any other person does with one academic degree or another involving ancient Greece and Rome:

The classics writer said that while online anonymity allows people to spread hatred without facing repercussions, all online networks can strengthen misogynistic communities, simply by allowing more red pill members to reach each other. She suggested that misogynist groups could be quarantined, as one of Reddit’s red pill groups recently was.

Update to Cantrell Funeral Home scandal in Detroit: More than 370 bodies found dating back to 1996

Hoo wee, this story stinks.


[A]shes of more than 370 bodies, nearly two dozen of which appear to be military veterans, ... were abandoned at Cantrell in the spring. ...

A new owner, who purchased the building about a month ago, said the interior smelled horrible. The owner had removed four dumpsters of garbage as he started renovating the space to turn it into a community center. ...

[Brian] Joseph [the owner of Verheyden Funeral Homes in Grosse Pointe Park], who arrived at Cantrell even before the state investigators, was let in by the owner.

The state contacted Joseph, [Joseph] said, because in the spring, as Cantrell's financial and regulatory problems became evident, he had offered to help the operator, Raymond Cantrell II, who had inherited the business after his father died in 2016.

Cantrell then asked Joseph to honor more than 500 of his pre-arranged funeral contracts.

The money paid on the contracts is held by a third party and Joseph said he does not profit from them. He agreed, he said, because Cantrell's father had been a contemporary of the former owner of his funeral home, and he believes that he has a duty to help others in need.

In April, the state suspended Cantrell's license, citing "deplorable, unsanitary conditions." Among the problems authorities found were six decomposing bodies — three men, two women and a male fetus — in the funeral home. 

Again, to help, Joseph quietly arranged for the bodies to be buried during the summer at Mount Olivet, which donated space and services. Santieu Vaults in Livonia donated the burial vaults which protect bodies while in the ground.

Joseph is now trying to help identify the hundreds of containers holding cremated remains, some of which appear to go back to 1996. Many of the remains have names with the date the person died, Joseph said, but finding relatives and loved ones is a challenge. ...

"It's a horrible situation," said John Desmond of A.J. Desmond & Sons Funeral Directors, summing up the problems with remains that were hidden and left behind. "This is the most egregious behavior that I have ever heard of in my 50 years of being licensed in the state of Michigan."

Lesson of the Florida "bomber": They don't "x-ray" the mail at any point in the system to keep bombs out

Rush Limbaugh confidently misinformed millions of his listeners this week that the USPS scans suspicious packages in order to intercept them and keep them away from the public.

For his part, radio personality Michael Savage laughably spent most of the week wondering how all these "bombs" could be "hand-delivered" all over the place supposedly without entering the postal system, because he believed fake news to that effect. It must have been a conspiracy! The van was too clean after all that driving up and down the east coast and to California and back! The stickers on the windows were too recently affixed because they weren't yet faded!

What we learned once again, however, was that the USPS only isolates suspicious packages for scanning by outside authorities. The cost of installing such scanners in every postal sorting facility would cost billions of dollars the already bankrupt USPS doesn't have. In this instance, the USPS was alerted to the package M/O by the outside authorities after the fact, after some of the "bombs" had already been delivered. The USPS was told what to look for, not the other way around. 

This affair exposes the fact that the entire USPS system remains vulnerable to penetration by serious terrorists at any time, and that a person who really intended to harm others, say with bombs, could do so as long as the intended target isn't too famous. That's why the more serious threats are the poisoners, who can still reach their intended famous targets occasionally with letters, such as Vanessa Trump. The contents of mail are not "scanned", only the fronts and backs are imaged and the images stored. That's how the authorities, once alerted to the problem in Florida, "were reviewing mail streams in and out of Florida, attempting to pinpoint locations where the parcels may have originated", as reported in the USA Today story linked below.

A real bomber in this instance would have rigged his packages to blow up as they are opened by the designated target, as when a box lid lifted on its hinge triggers a circuit with a detonator. Of course, the difficulty of getting such a package into the actual hands of famous persons with staff protecting them from such an eventuality is a thought which cannot have escaped the mind of Cesar Sayoc.

A real bomber does not stuff active devices into padded envelope mailers as Sayoc did, where they could blow-up indiscriminately under normal, rough handling, including in his own hands. A real bomber does not leave finger prints behind on his mail bombs, especially if his fingerprints are already in the crime reporting system due to many prior arrests and convictions.

It's almost as if poor Cesar Sayoc, aged 56, suddenly homeless and forced to live in his van, intended to get caught so that he could finally escape all his problems and finally get a roof over his head and three square meals a day for the rest of his life after so many years of struggling with poverty.

CNN reported here:

Bomb suspect Cesar Sayoc had been kicked out by his parents, so he has living in the van that we have seen in pictures today, according to a law enforcement official. ... Sayoc was initially somewhat cooperative, the official said. He told investigators that the pipe bombs wouldn’t have hurt anyone and that he didn’t want to hurt anyone. 


USA Today reports here:

The total number of bombs reached at least 14 Friday after more suspicious packages were recovered: one in Florida addressed to New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker, another in New York addressed to former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper, a device recovered at Sen. Kamala Harris’ office in Sacramento, California, and another package that was intercepted at a mail facility in Burlingame, California, addressed to billionaire Tom Steyer.

Harris’ office says it was informed that the package was identified at a Sacramento mail facility. The FBI responded to the facility in a South Sacramento neighborhood that’s been blocked off by caution tape.

A package addressed to Clapper was recovered at a Manhattan postal facility. Like some of the previous packages, the one found in New York City on Friday had the office of Florida Democratic Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz as the return address, a photo obtained by CBS News showed. ...

The suspicious package intended for Clapper was spotted by a postal worker at the Radio City Station facility at around 8:15 a.m. The employee contacted U.S. Postal Inspection Service, and they contacted the NYPD and FBI.

NYPD Bomb Squad officers scanned the package and saw what appeared to be a pipe bomb, NYPD Deputy Commissioner for Intelligence and Counterterrorism John Miller said at a Manhattan news conference.