Friday, November 4, 2016
This morning's Electoral College prediction with 4 days to Election 2016: Clinton 298 to Trump 240
Clinton begins with 226 Electoral College votes on the Real Clear Politics map.
The average of the last poll and the polling average this morning indicates she wins FL (29) by less than 3 points, VA (13) by more than 4 points, PA (20) by 2.5 points, ME-2 (1) by more than 1 point, and CO (9) by more than 1 point.
Trump begins with 180 Electoral College votes and wins NC (15) by 3.9 points, NH (4) by less than 1 point, OH (18) by more than 4 points, IA (6) by less than 1 point, AZ (11) by 4.5 points, and NV (6) by 1 point.
The most recent polls are all tied up in NH, IA, CO and NV.
Clinton is ahead by only 2 points in the latest polls in PA and ME-2. Her margins in the averages are razor thin in FL (1.2) and ME-2 (0.7) and thin in PA (3.0) and CO (2.6).
Trump is ahead by only 1 point in the latest poll in GA (a phony to make him spend money there?). His margins in the averages are razor thin in NC (0.8), NH (1.5), and IA (1.4) and thin in OH (3.3) and NV (2.0).
Clinton's objective is clear: Take away NH, IA and NV from Trump and make him spend money in NC and OH.
Trump's objective is more daunting, to keep NC, NH, IA, OH and NV while pressing hard in PA, ME-2, FL and CO. Trump needs 30 more Electoral College votes to win, which he can get in a few ways, say by winning FL and ME-2, or he can win even if he loses FL by winning PA, CO and ME-2.
Clinton's vulnerability in PA, ME-2, FL and CO adds up to 59 Electoral College votes.
Trump's vulnerability in NC, NH, IA, OH and NV adds up to 49 Electoral College votes.
Thursday, November 3, 2016
Hillary lied to everyone about turning over all work-related e-mails: FBI finds such e-mails on Weiner's laptop which weren't
Destroying government property is a criminal offense in addition to the offense of obstruction of justice and committing perjury. Transmitting government communications to unauthorized civilian personnel is also an offense.
CBS News reports here:
The FBI has found emails related to Hillary Clinton’s tenure as secretary of state on the laptop belonging to the estranged husband of Huma Abedin, Anthony Weiner, according to a U.S. official. These emails, CBS News’ Andres Triay reports, are not duplicates of emails found on Secretary Clinton’s private server.
Bret Baier claims 2 sources in FBI say indictment likely in Clinton Crime Family Foundation pay for play scandal
Detailed here.
He mentions that Cheryl Mills' and Heather Samuelson's laptops are being plumbed. They were not destroyed after all.
As polls tighten Trump campaign has been proven right about PA but should focus on CO, NH and VA instead of MI, WI and NM
Clinton's lead in PA is down to 3.4. That would be a huge coup for Trump.
Clinton's lead in CO is down to 1.7, in NH 3.3 and in VA 4.7. Go for those.
Clinton's lead in MI is 5.7, in WI 5.4, and in NM 8.5. Pretty far out of reach with five days to go.
Trump is still very vulnerable in FL (+0.7), NC (tie), ME-2 (Clinton +0.7), OH (+3.3) and IA (+1.4), as he is in AZ and NV where he has improved to +3 and +2 respectively.
Wednesday, November 2, 2016
Like I said, Trump should concentrate on Virginia, not Wisconsin or Michigan: Real Clear Politics just moved Virginia to "Toss-up" this morning
Virginia now favors Clinton by only +4.7.
Michigan is now Clinton +7.
Wisconsin is Clinton +5.7.
Trump is wasting his time in Michigan and Wisconsin.
Tuesday, November 1, 2016
Trump is misspending some of his $25 million ad blitz: In Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and New Mexico in particular
Trump needs instead to spend money to retake NV, AZ, CO and NC from Hillary where she leads narrowly and shore up IA, OH, GA and FL where Trump leads narrowly.
He's NOT going to retake WI (Clinton +5.7), Michigan (Clinton +6.7), Pennsylvania (Clinton +6), or New Mexico (Clinton +8.5).
Dumb.
Story here.
Drudge is an idiot for calling Wisconsin a battleground based on a WaPo story which is trying to divert Trump's energies
Wisconsin is a distraction. Trump isn't going to win it, and Drudge is a fool for taking the bait and headlining this WaPo story:
Trump is losing Wisconsin to Clinton at this hour by 5.7 points because of #NeverTrump libertarians who follow radio talker Charlie Sykes. That guy's never been on Trump's side and never will be. Wisconsin "conservatives" follow a ridiculous Speaker Paul Ryan who thinks preserving Medicare for future generations is a conservative thing. That's Ripon Society Republicanism, Teddy Roosevelt progressivism.
Libertarian Gary Johnson is polling 6.3 there, way above his current national average of 4.6, accounting for all of Clinton's margin of victory.
Trump shouldn't waste any more time or resources on Wisconsin.
He'd have been far better off trying for Virginia where he is polling better than in Wisconsin, but it's too late for that, too.
Trump's path to the presidency (164 Electoral College votes currently) is through NV, AZ, CO, IA, OH, NC, GA and FL (110).
He might want to visit NH and ME-2 also if he has the resources, but the main battle is in the eight states shown.
If Republicans had any brains they'd be pointing out that GDP is running $2 trillion behind Bush and employment 6 million
But no, they have their heads up their ass because Trump talked about grabbing pussy.
Which proves that Republicans don't care about the economy and the middle class, only about their privileges under the establishment.
Which is why they hate Trump, because he does care.
Mark Levin waits until one week before Election 2016 to state that Donald Trump is more conservative than both John McCain and Mitt Romney on a host of issues
What a piece of shit Levin is.
At the end of the first half hour, tonight.
Trump campaign's travel schedule since 10/25/16 is hit and miss
Made/makes sense to visit:
NV (Clinton +1.0), 10-30
AZ (Clinton +0.6), 10-29, 11-2
CO (Clinton +4.0), 10-29, 10-30, 11-2
OH (Trump +2.5), 10-27
NC (Clinton +2.6), 10-26, 11-3
FL (Trump +1.0), 11-2, 11-3
No visits:
IA (Trump +1.4)
ME-2 (Clinton +2.0)
GA (Trump +3.6)
Made/makes no sense to visit:
PA (Clinton +6.0), 11-1, 11-3
MI (Clinton +6.7), 10-31
WI (Clinton +5.7), 11-1
NM (Clinton +8.5), 10-30, 11-2
Trump's path to victory is a surge in NV, AZ, CO, and NC, not MI
Trump's path to victory does not run through MI. Trump is wasting time and resources here.
With 233 Electoral College votes more or less in the bank as of today, the path to victory runs through NV, AZ, CO and NC instead.
He can overcome Hillary's +1 in NV, Hillary's +0.6 in AZ, Hillary's +4.0 in CO, and Hillary's +2.6 in NC. If he does he can win 274-264.
Trying to overcome Hillary's +6.7 in MI is a fool's errand.
Instead he ought to be trying to keep IA, where his lead is just +1.4, OH, where his lead is just +2.5, GA, where his lead is just +3.6, and FL, where his lead is just +1.0.
Whoever let Trump come to MI yesterday is a fool.
But it was probably Trump himself.
With one week until Election 2016, America is about to elect a crook, Hillary Clinton, president with 305 Electoral College votes
The Real Clear Politics map at this hour shows Clinton with 263 Electoral College votes in her column, Trump with 164, and 111 Toss-Ups.
NH, PA, VA, MI, WI, MN, NM and OR lean Clinton by an average of 6.55 points and are included in her total of 263.
IN, MO, TX and UT lean Trump by an average of 6.5 points and are included in his total of 164.
Based solely on the polling in the Toss-Ups, Clinton is set to win NV, AZ, CO, ME-2 and NC, giving her a total of 305, 35 more than the 270 she needs to win. Her average lead in the polls in these 5 is just 2.04 points.
Trump is set to win IA, OH, GA and FL, giving him a total of 233, 37 fewer than the 270 he needs to win. His average lead in the polls in these 4 is 2.13 points.
Clinton's margin nationally has fallen to +2.2 over Trump. Libertarian Johnson averages 4.6 points and Green Party Stein 2.1 points.
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