Sunday, September 25, 2011

Rush Limbaugh Slams Obama's 'Peace is Hard,' Forgets Bush's 2004 'Hard Work' Remarks

"We don't elect presidents expecting them to tell us how damn hard the job is." 

-- Rush Limbaugh, Thursday, September 22, 2011, reacting to Obama's comments to the UN that Mideast peace is hard.

I guess Rush doesn't remember these lines from George W. Bush from the first 2004 presidential debate with Senator John Kerry:

"In Iraq, no doubt about it, it's tough. It's hard work. It's incredibly hard.

"I understand the serious consequences of committing our troops into harm's way. It's the hardest decision a president makes.

"There's a lot of good people working hard.

"I work with Director Mueller of the FBI; comes in my office when I'm in Washington every morning, talking about how to protect us. There's a lot of really good people working hard to do so. It's hard work.

"And now we're fighting them now. And it's hard work. I understand how hard it is. I get the casualty reports every day. I see on the TV screens how hard it is. But it's necessary work. And I'm optimistic. See, I think you can be realistic and optimistic at the same time. I'm optimistic we'll achieve -- I know we won't achieve if we send mixed signals. I know we're not going to achieve our objective if we send mixed signals to our troops, our friends, the Iraqi citizens. We've got a plan in place. The plan says there will be elections in January, and there will be. The plan says we'll train Iraqi soldiers so they can do the hard work, and we are. And it's not only just America, but NATO is now helping, Jordan's helping train police, UAE is helping train police. We've allocated $7 billion over the next months for reconstruction efforts. And we're making progress there. And our alliance is strong. And as I just told you, there's going to be a summit of the Arab nations. Japan will be hosting a summit. We're making progress. It is hard work. It is hard work to go from a tyranny to a democracy. It's hard work to go from a place where people get their hands cut off, or executed, to a place where people are free. But it's necessary work. And a free Iraq is going to make this world a more peaceful place.

"You know, every life is precious. Every life matters. You know, my hardest -- the hardest part of the job is to know that I committed the troops in harm's way and then do the best I can to provide comfort for the loved ones who lost a son or a daughter or a husband or wife. You know, I think about Missy Johnson. She's a fantastic lady I met in Charlotte, North Carolina. She and her son Bryan, they came to see me. Her husband PJ got killed. He'd been in Afghanistan, went to Iraq. You know, it's hard work to try to love her as best as I can, knowing full well that the decision I made caused her loved one to be in harm's way.

"There are 100,000 troops trained, police, guard, special units, border patrol. There's going to be 125,000 trained by the end of this year. Yes, we're getting the job done. It's hard work. Everybody knows it's hard work, because there's a determined enemy that's trying to defeat us.

"I understand how hard it is to commit troops. Never wanted to commit troops. When I was running -- when we had the debate in 2000, never dreamt I'd be doing that.

"We've done a lot of hard work together over the last three and a half years. We've been challenged, and we've risen to those challenges. We've climbed the mighty mountain. I see the valley below, and it's a valley of peace."

Wasn't George W. Bush re-elected shortly after these debate remarks?

Feds Drop Short-Barreled Rifle Charge Against Hutaree Member

As reported here:

Federal prosecutors have dismissed a gun charge against Hutaree militia member David Brian Stone Jr. Prosecutors filed a motion Friday in federal court in Detroit that says "the ends of justice would best be served by this dismissal." It does not elaborate.

The charge alleged Stone Jr., who is the adopted son of Hutaree leader David Brian Stone, had a short-barreled rifle that wasn't registered.

"The ends of justice would best be served . . .."?

Uh huh.

If the Feds had a case you can bet they would have tried to make it.

They didn't have one. 

Saturday, September 24, 2011

Smartest President Ever Says We Built The Intercontinental Railroad

Ah, that would be transcontinental.

Andrew Malcolm for The LA Times, here:

"We’re the country that built the Intercontinental Railroad," Barack Obama.

That's what the president of the United States flat-out said Thursday during what was supposed to be a photo op to sell his jobs plan next to an allegedly deteriorating highway bridge.

A railroad between continents? A railroad from, say, New York City all the way across the Atlantic to France? Now, THAT would be a bridge!

It's yet another humorous gaffe by the Harvard graduate, overlooked by most media for whatever reason. Like Obama saying Abraham-Come-Lately Lincoln was the founder of the Republican Party. Or Navy corpseman. Or the Austrian language. Fifty-seven states. The president of Canada. Etc.


"[Obama's] probably the smartest guy ever to become president."














(Michael Beschloss, Harvard MBA, presidential historian, interviewed on Don Imus in November 2008, transcript and appropriate commentary mockery here.)

No wonder Obama keeps his college transcripts sealed.

"How does a bad student go to Columbia and then to Harvard?"

Obama vs. Bush: Initial Claims for Unemployment Compared

Hundreds of thousands of people lose a job every week, year in and year out, and file a first-time claim for unemployment benefits. The federal government keeps track of that information and reports it weekly, here. You can examine it for yourself by following the link at the bottom of that page at the US Department of Labor.

What follows is the Obama record of such claims (150 weeks so far-November 2008 to present) compared with the Bush record (417 weeks-November 2000 through October 2008), showing the seasonally adjusted number of weeks in which 200,000 or more filed a claim for first time benefits, 300,000 or more, and so on up through 600,000 or more.

Generally speaking, first time claims in the 300,000s is consistent with an economy where people lose a job and find a new one within the usual period of benefits, which customarily has been limited to 26 weeks (6 months). Hence the usual advice of financial advisers to save money equivalent to 6 months' expenses. At the same time, net new workers enter the workforce as the population grows in size, and they also find work under those conditions.

200,000+ (Obama: 0 weeks; Bush: 14 weeks) -- longest consecutive streak: Bush with 7
300,000+ (Obama: 8 weeks; Bush: 304 weeks) -- longest consecutive streaks: Bush with 104, 61, 30, 24
400,000+ (Obama: 86 weeks; Bush: 98 weeks) -- longest consecutive streaks: Obama with 52, Bush 23
500,000+ (Obama: 35 weeks; Bush: 1 week) -- longest consecutive streak: Obama with 20
600,000+ (Obama: 21 weeks; Bush: 0 weeks) -- longest consecutive streak: Obama with 18

Unless initial claims soon recede below 400,000 per week and stay there, Obama will easily beat Bush's two term record of first time claims at the 400,000+ level in just one term. And so far, 60 percent of Obama's time in office has been spent with unemployment at catastrophically high levels week after week, whereas under Bush it was just 6 percent of the time.

Friday, September 23, 2011

James Altucher Talks Up Optimism, and Five Stocks He Doesn't Own!


Give me a break! Put your money where your mouth is, bro!

Apple, Exxon Mobil, Walmart, Amazon and Google: This year's dinosaurs are next year's tank of gas. It's happened before, and it will happen again. Maybe not right away, but Steve Jobs will die. The Arabs will try another embargo over Israel. Companies depending on relatively cheap transportation and distribution will experience tighter margins. And we can't predict the future, but a world where energy costs more is a world where electricity usage puts free operations like Google between a rock and a hard place.

On the macro side James Altucher really shows his colors: securitization without mark-to-market. You can't have the one without the other. He must be reading too much Steve Forbes.

Have fun stormin' the castle!

The Economy Is Not The Same Thing As The Market, Or Is It?

Mark Hulbert reminds everyone here that the DOW quadrupled between July 1932 and March 1937.

He thinks analogists should think about that when drawing doomsday scenario parallels. He's surely correct that smart investors could make a lot of money if today's market replays the DOW from that period in The Great Depression.

But that's one hell of a big "if".

I don't buy the analogy.

For one thing, the Shiller p/e ratio then had fallen way below 10 to the near rock bottom levels near 5 once seen in 1920-1921. Today we're still around 19.

And then there's the little matter of GDP.

Having fallen from $103.6 billion in 1929 to $58.7 billion at the end of 1932, GDP began to rise again in 1934, reaching $91.9 billion by the close of 1937. From the GDP low of $56.4 billion in 1933, GDP rose nearly 63 percent in just four years of the DOW's five year cyclical bull recovery in that secular bear during the 1930s. Today growth is mired in the vicinity of 1 percent, after a decade of average annual growth of 1.67 percent. That was a raging fire then. We've only lit a match.

The depression of 2008-2009 was much too small by comparison to 1929-1940 to draw any meaningful parallels: a 46 percent drop in GDP over four years today would mean reducing our $15 trillion economy by nearly $7 trillion. We didn't drop even a half trillion dollars from GDP in 2009. And the last time the p/e ratio got close to the low 1921 and 1932 levels was in 1982.

We've had a little depression. A little growth and a little gain in the markets would seem to follow.

But since government can screw up a two-car funeral, anything is possible. 

Michael Moore: Another Leftist Threatening Violence

As reported here:


"The smart rich know they can only build the gate so high. And, and, sooner or later history proves that people when they've had enough aren’t going to take it anymore. And much better to deal with it nonviolently now, through the political system, than what could possibly happen in the future, which nobody wants to see," Michael Moore said on Current TV's "Countdown" program.

Moore was alluding to riots, which he was discussing with "Countdown" host Keith Olbermann prior to his comment to deal with things nonviolently now.

He should be arrested and prosecuted for conspiracy to commit mob action.

Fukushima Radiation Hysteria Lives on at Naked Capitalism and Washington's Blog

The latest example is here.

For a self-described moderate, Yves sure does showcase a lot of left-liberalism, conspiracy theory, anti-capitalism and fear-mongering.

I can't take her claim to moderation seriously. I think it's meant to deceive. She's obviously working for the other side, so much so that for her, even socialist Bernie Sanders is a Quisling.

Maybe she's a moderate communist: Who else would link to Gorbachev's NYT defense of Russia's war in South Ossetia?

Thursday, September 22, 2011

So, You Think You Should Buy On This Dip?

The Shiller S and P price to earnings ratio stands tonight at 19.42, as here, still way above the historic middling 16.

I can remember people calling it the buying opportunity of a lifetime, at around 15, in March 2009. Why isn't this the selling opportunity of a lifetime?

The S and P is down over 10 percent year to date, down less than one-half of one percent in the last 12 months when QE II got underway, and down 14 percent in the last five years despite QE I and II. Not counting (negligible) inflation on the negative side, nor (declining) dividends on the positive side.

Since 1881 opportunities to sell around 20 outnumber opportunities to buy around 10, but not by much: the ratio is roughly 11 to 9, in my post-prandial bliss.

This is still a selling opportunity.

Steve Forbes: Shill for the Banks, Defends TARP and Suspension of Mark to Market Rules

And just to be consistent, recommends the same to Europe now, here.

Why, if government can conjure $7 trillion in money creation from $700 billion in TARP investments, why don't we just dispense with private capital altogether and let governments do this all the time?

Then people all over the world can enjoy perpetual unemployment while Steve and his clones get filthy stinking rich because they're first in line for the easy money.

Great idea, Steve! Until your precious banks implode under their own weight.

It can't happen soon enough. 

I Don't Like Felix Salmon's Chart. I Like My Chart.

His chart here makes it look like what's been going on since 1995 has been part of one relentless long term uptrend, the sanguine implication of which is that we should stop worrying if we are long term investors:











My chart shows that since the beginning of 1995 the trend supercharged into what people call, for lack of a better description, irrational exuberance, so named by Alan Greenspan himself at the end of 1996, whose own Federal Reserve management arguably makes him the very author of it:













You'd entirely miss that from Felix's chart.

There is no reason why stocks should be down today, as Felix says, except that from the long term perspective an S and P 500 index in the vicinity of 800 looks like a more fair valuation than 1200. The market has twice tried to tell us that, in 2002-2003 at the 775 level, and again in 2008-2009 at the 675 level.

It may be getting ready to tell us something similar again.

What say 575?


Libertarians Are Nuts: Transparent, Principled Representation Is Easily Stopped

Usually by a pair of tits or testicles, or ambition, greed or personal animus.

"Transparent, principled representation—supported by grassroots networks and promoted through social media—is becoming an unstoppable force," says a Republican libertarian would-be star in a fundraising letter.

That's pretty transparent all by itself. Dangle hope, and raise money. Reminds me of a certain prominent Democrat's recent campaign, which is bumping up against the unstoppable force of failure and its discontents.

Like all good ideologies, the libertarian one assumes people are essentially good and will do the right thing more often than not, if the politician but sets a good example and gives everyone all the information. A child of his age is this one, worshipping at the altar of Education, which the more one has, the better one is.

Why, one wonders why the founders bothered separating the powers of government at all, seeing how history teaches us how good men are.

"But what is government itself, but the greatest of all reflections on human nature? If men were angels, no government would be necessary. If angels were to govern men, neither external nor internal controls on government would be necessary. In framing a government which is to be administered by men over men, the great difficulty lies in this: you must first enable the government to control the governed; and in the next place oblige it to control itself. A dependence on the people is, no doubt, the primary control on the government; but experience has taught mankind the necessity of auxiliary precautions."

-- James Madison, Federalist No. 51

At least my libertarian has declined to run for the Senate. For now.

Having gone from daddy's business to one term in the state House and one term in the federal House, that would be just too obvious.

Besides, it takes millions to run for the Senate, and right now, the coffers are looking a little light for another House run in a redrawn district which will be more Democrat than before.

Which explains statements like this: "I always vote for the side that increases our personal and economic freedoms—regardless of party."

Tracking left, where the votes are, where he belongs.

Shared Sacrifice: Moochelle Sports New Diamond Jewelry

Where else? At a fundraiser!

As reported here:

Moochelle's New $42K Diamond Cuffs


Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Two Big Reasons I Support Rick Perry
















Here.

Federal Reserve Says 'Let's Twist Again, Like We Did Last . . .1961'

In another effort to reduce longer term interest rates, those from six years to thirty, evidently aimed at the mortgage market, which remains in ICU.

Expect short term interest rates to increase as short term instruments are sold by the Fed and replaced with longer term bonds on the Fed balance sheet.

Complete coverage here at Bloomberg.com.

And just for fun, here's Chubby Checker:

My Congressman, Rep. Justin Amash, Is Way Out There.

At least he's in right field, sort of:












Story here.

It was reported on Monday here that Rep. Amash has endorsed Rep. Ron Paul for president.

I see that mycongressmanisnuts.org is still available.

How Many Gay Sailors Does It Take To Screw In A Light Bulb?

One. However, it takes a whole emergency room to get it out.

Tuesday, September 20, 2011

While Warren Buffett Wants To Raise Your Taxes, He's Been Fighting His Since 2002

So says The New York Post here:


Billionaire Warren Buffett says folks like him should have to pay more taxes -- but it turns out his firm, Berkshire Hathaway, hasn’t paid what it’s already owed for years. ...

[T]he company openly admits that it owes back taxes since as long ago as 2002.

“We anticipate that we will resolve all adjustments proposed by the US Internal Revenue Service (“IRS”) for the 2002 through 2004 tax years ... within the next 12 months,” the firm’s annual report says.

It also cites outstanding tax issues for 2005 through 2009. ...

Obama, and co-conspirators like Buffett, claim to want to slap only “millionaires and billionaires.” ...

Obama’s hikes on “millionaires and billionaires” actually start with folks earning as little as $200,000.

Buffett's annual report states he is fighting the IRS over $1 billion in unpaid taxes.

Obama's Lies on Taxes Obvious Even to the Associated Press

Today, in a fact-check piece by Stephen Ohlemacher :

President Barack Obama makes it sound as if there are millionaires all over America paying taxes at lower rates than their secretaries.

"Middle-class families shouldn't pay higher taxes than millionaires and billionaires," Obama said Monday. "That's pretty straightforward. It's hard to argue against that."

The data tell a different story. On average, the wealthiest people in America pay a lot more taxes than the middle class or the poor, according to private and government data. They pay at a higher rate, and as a group, they contribute a much larger share of the overall taxes collected by the federal government.

The rest summarizes all the data, here.

Monday, September 19, 2011

Sharp Uptick in ATM Crime Since June When Obama Blamed Tech. for Unemployment

Seen here:

"Hey #attackwatch, I saw 6 ATM's in an alley, killing a Job. It looked like a hate crime!" wrote @thorninaz.

Obama blamed technological efficiencies like ATMs for unemployment in June, as reported here:

On the June 14 edition of NBC's "Today," President Barack Obama ascribed part of the blame for the high unemployment rate to ATMs, yet most media outlets continue to ignore the gaffe.

"There are some structural issues with our economy where a lot of businesses have learned to become much more efficient with a lot fewer workers," lectured Obama in an interview with NBC's Ann Curry. "You see it when you go to a bank and you use an ATM, you don't go to a bank teller, or you go to the airport and you're using a kiosk instead of checking in at the gate."

Cash For Clunkers Was Extremely Successful

Seen here:


"hey #AttackWatch I heard the only good 'Cash For Clunkers' did was get all the obama stickers off the roads, thank you," tweeted @speedyjerry.

All, except for this one:

A paroled killer’s “Obama” bumper sticker was the break that helped cops nab the man accused of the cold-blooded murder of a Tedeschi’s convenience store clerk, jurors in Edward Corliss’ murder trial learned yesterday.

Nissan Maximas, of course, are not clunkers:


Please Send This To AttackWatch.com


Arrogant Prick

The Obama Jobs Bill 'Right Now' Farce

Jobs 'right now' had to wait for Obama's August vacation to conclude, and for over 2.5 years of his first, and hopefully last, term of office.

Then 'right now' got serious in the speech to Congress in early September, where he actually said 'right now' seven times.

News outlets reported Obama actually had a bill on paper to introduce on the day of the speech.

Obama waved around for the cameras over a hundred pages of something he claimed was the jobs bill.

But despite 'right now' a bill hasn't been introduced in the House, and now Democrats in the Senate expect to have a bill sometime in October, about a month from the fierce urgency of 'right now'.

Andrew Malcolm ridicules the whole thing here in The Los Angeles Times:

Well, here we are on the next Monday after that next Monday and we've just learned from the No. 2 Democrat in the Senate, Dick Durbin, that actually it seems that body won't really be seriously getting into the legislation for a while yet. The Senate has some other more important business to handle. And then there's this month's congressional vacation, which in Washington is called "a recess," like elementary school. 

Communist idlers.

Oh yeah. Great shot of Obama doing The Mussolini, too:

The blended strongman

Matt Latimer Doubts Obama is a Closet Muslim . . .

. . . and just about everything Joe McGinniss says about Sarah Palin in a new book, here.

When Matt starts doubting Obama is a secular humanist, then we're all in trouble.

Just for fun, here's a screen shot of the Fox News poll of 911 registered voters from late August showing 71 percent of Republicans don't want Sarah to run for president:

Sunday, September 18, 2011

'Hubbert's Peak Is Still Not In Sight'

So says Daniel Yergin for The Wall Street Journal, here:


By 2010, U.S. oil production was 3.5 times higher than Hubbert had estimated: 5.5 million barrels per day versus Hubbert's 1971 estimate of no more than 1.5 million barrels per day.

Saturday, September 17, 2011

Solyndra: A One Half Billion Dollar Microcosm of Obama's Crony Capitalism

Which rewards the takers, not the makers.

Read about it here, from James Pethokoukis:

"politicians enriching favored businesses, who then return the favor." 

Saudi Arabia Puts The Screws To The Muslim Sympathizer In Chief

Turki al-Faisal, here, in The New York Times:

Today, there is a chance for the United States and Saudi Arabia to contain Iran and prevent it from destabilizing the region. But this opportunity will be squandered if the Obama administration’s actions at the United Nations force a deepening split between our two countries. ...

American support for Palestinian statehood is therefore crucial, and a veto will have profound negative consequences.


Expect more bowing to Saudi Arabia from President Obama: "Palestinian" statehood based on the pre-1967 borders, despite Israel's right to Judea and Samaria as the spoils of the 1967 war, will not be vetoed by the US at the UN because Obama, well, you know, has a problem with Israel.

The tyrant is but the slave turned inside out.

The Pittsburgh Press, June 12, 1967



The Shiller Price to Earnings Ratio in the News

From Jack Hough for The Wall Street Journal, here:

The plain old trailing P/E—the one that suggests stock prices are normal—is at least based on known earnings, so it's a good place to start in deciding whether stocks are affordable. But it has a flaw: If the past year's earnings were unsustainably high, today's P/E might be deceivingly low.

One fix is to take an average of many years of trailing earnings. Yale economist Robert Shiller advocates using 10 years, adjusted for inflation. His "cyclically adjusted P/E" is 20.8, versus an average since 1881 of 16.4.

Mr. Shiller's measure suggests stocks are a bit pricey, and another signal agrees. According to government statistics, after-tax corporate earnings are near a record high relative to worker wages. In the past, similar readings have foretold sharp earnings drops.

Today, that scenario isn't certain, because companies make more of their money overseas than in the past. "The government data might be a warning," says Mr. Shiller.

So it is time to be cautious, but not necessarily to flee stocks. U.S. ones are priced to deliver long-term inflation-adjusted returns of 4 percent a year, including dividends, reckons Mr. Shiller, about double what the 10-year Treasury bond pays.

Friday, September 16, 2011

FORD Owner 'Chris' Slams Auto Companies Receiving Government Bailouts

As reported here:

"I wasn't going to buy another car that was bailed out by our government. I was going to buy from a manufacturer that's standing on their own: win, lose, or draw. That's what America is about is taking the chance to succeed and understanding when you fail that you gotta' pick yourself up and go back to work. Ford is that company for me."

Chris is obviously referring to the fact that Chrysler got bailed out once before long ago in addition to its most recent bailout, which was also taken by GM.

Memo to Sarah Palin and Michele Bachmann: The auto bailouts are crony capitalism at its worst. Why aren't you talking about that instead of Gov. Perry and Gardasil?

Because you're phonies, that's why!

California Democrat Calls Obama's Mortgage Crisis Responses Abysmal Failures

At TheHill.com, here:


"The administration has been AWOL on this issue," charged Rep. Dennis Cardoza (D-Calif.), "and the American people are suffering because of the mismanagement."

"In my entire political career, I've never seen anything this irresponsible," he added. ...


"I couldn't wait to get Obama in office because I was sure a Democrat would do a better job," Cardoza said, referring to the foreclosure-relief efforts under the Bush administration. "And, frankly, nothing's happened. The programs that were put in place were abysmal failures."

Liberal Bloomberg Makes a Veiled Threat of Violence, Throwing Down the Gauntlet

If a Republican issued these kinds of warnings, liberals like Bloomberg would be calling them the completely inappropriate kind of incendiary remarks typical of right wing extremists:

Mayor Bloomberg warned Friday there would be riots in the streets if Washington doesn't get serious about generating jobs.

"We have a lot of kids graduating college, can't find jobs," Bloomberg said on his weekly WOR radio show.

"That's what happened in Cairo. That's what happened in Madrid. You don't want those kinds of riots here." ...

"Now everybody's got to sit down and say we're actually gonna do something and you have to do something on both the revenue and the expense side."


Typical hypocritical liberal intemperance.

NPR Notices Obama Riffing on Jesus, But Prefers a Different Reference

NPR story here. Ours here.

Nine States and 1.4 Million Votes in 2008 Made Obama President Instead of McCain

That's what we said here about Obama's vote margins way back in 2009, which looked like this:

Colorado 215,000
Florida 236,000
Indiana 28,000
Iowa 147,000
Nevada 121,000
New Mexico 126,000
North Carolina 14,000
Ohio 262,000
Virginia 235,000.

Now others are catching on, especially as Obama's support in those states dries up.

From The Washington Times, here:

Mr. Obama was able to win three years ago mainly because he captured nine states that had gone for Republican George W. Bush in 2004: Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico and Nevada. Combined, those states will account for 112 electoral votes in 2012.

But with just over a year until the next election, Mr. Obama’s rating has fallen below 50 percent in every one of those states — always a warning sign for an incumbent. In only one state, Iowa, is his approval rating, 48 percent, higher than his disapproval rating, 45 percent.

The key point missing from the article, however, is that Obama turned out a massive Democrat vote in those states, garnering 3.04 million more votes than John Kerry received in 2004, while McCain failed to turn out the Republican vote, receiving nearly 200,000 fewer votes than George Bush did in 2004.

Obama is extremely vulnerable in 2012 for a host of reasons, not the least of which already is enthusiasm.

Wednesday, September 14, 2011

Why is This Woman Smiling?

Because she's got a boot up your ass, that's why.

Barack Obama Thinks He's Jesus Christ

"But if you love me you've got to help me pass this bill."

-- Obama, here

"If ye love me, keep my commandments."

-- Jesus, The Gospel of John 14:15

Can No One Tell The Truth, Even About The Great Depression?

Seen here:

Between 1929 and 1933, U.S. gross domestic product contracted by around 30%.

Where the hell does that come from?

In 1929 GDP was $103.6 billion. By the end of 1933 GDP had declined to $56.4 billion. That's a decline of over 45 percent, not "around 30 percent."

Matthew Lynn for Marketwatch.com is talking about "the buying opportunity of a lifetime" at the link.

Really? With the Shiller price-to-earnings ratio at 20.43?

The buying opportunity of my lifetime was between 1973 and 1983, when the Shiller p/e ratio rattled around 10, fifty percent lower than it is today. And it just so happens that I didn't have any money to invest in those years like I do today because of a lifetime of saving.

Not even March 2009 was the buying opportunity of a lifetime, when the Shiller p/e fell to around 15.

If you are wise you will keep your powder dry until you see the whites in their eyes, so to speak, when we get to 10. But even then, can you live with yourself if you pull the trigger and then a total market collapse like 1929 brings the p/e closer to 5?

Well, can ya?

Remember the one true thing of Keynesianism: markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. A decline from 10 to 5 can wipe out 50 percent of what you have.

There is nothing which cannot repeat itself, because human nature does not change.

Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-IL): Commie Redistributionist, Pure and Simple.

Here she is in her own words, in an appearance with Don Wade and Roma on WLSAM.com, The Big 89:

Schakowsky said that Americans don't deserve to keep all of their money because we need taxes to support our society.

“I’ll put it this way. You don’t deserve to keep all of it and it’s not a question of deserving because what government is, is those things that we decide to do together. And there are many things that we decide to do together like have our national security. Like have police and fire. What about the people that work at the National Institute of Health who are looking for a cure for cancer,” Schakowsky said.

Hey, what about my kid who'd like a hamburger for a change instead of rice and beans, Jan, you ignorant slut, while you and your national socialist pals bail out the bankers with our tax dollars, huh?!

Nearly One Week On Obama Still Can't Find a Democrat to Sponsor His Jobs Bill

Pass this bill! Pass this bill!

But no Democrat has filed the bill in the US House.

Maybe because Democrats went to the mat for ObamaCare in March 2010, and lost big for it in November 2010.

Democrats in the House are obviously letting The One twist in the wind right now because The One did nothing to help them win re-election last autumn. Obama let them twist in the wind while he went on vacation every six weeks during 2010.

To rub the Democrats' noses in it, Republican Rep. Louie Gohmert finally has taken advantage of the lack of initiative and co-opted the bill with one of his own by the same name, as reported here:

President Obama repeatedly asked members of Congress to pass the American Jobs Act last week. But when no Democrat filed Obama’s bill after he presented it to Congress, a conservative congressman swiped the name for his own legislation.

The American Jobs Act introduced in the House of Representatives looks quite different from the version President Obama outlined in his speech to Congress. Instead of hiking taxes on working Americans to pay for another stimulus, Rep. Louie Gohmert’s (R-TX) legislation offers a tax cut.

UPDATE: Gohmert’s bill now has a number. It’s HR 2911.

Democrats can't say Gohmert didn't give them plenty of time, considering the urgency of the matter as put forward by Obama.

The fact of the matter is, when Obama and the Democrats controlled both the House and the Senate and the Executive from the beginning of 2009 into early 2010, it was the Senate which stalled almost everything sent to it by Speaker Pelosi and Company. Hundreds of measures passed by the Democrat House never saw the light of day in the Democrat Senate.

The point is that the problem for "legislative progress" is "structural" as the economists want it. The problem is with the US Senate, no matter which party controls it.

Gov. Rick Perry is wise in recognizing that the problem specifically has to do with who elects the Senate, which is no longer the State Legislatures, the way prescribed by the Constitution.

The consequence of the 17th Amendment is that we now have two legislative houses in competition for mere populist sentiment, which is a recipe for inaction, not action, because the legislative cycle distributes populist urgency differently in the two houses of our legislature. In changing the manner of election in the 17th Amendment, they forgot to change the timing.

As it is, only one third of the Senate is up for election/re-election every two years with the House, which still keeps most of the Senate largely behind the schedule of the mere popular whim, just as the Constitution intended, and the popular whim changes so fast these days that it's usually only a Senator (!) who notices it, and he or she bides his or her time, knowing popular whim will be forgotten in two years' time, or four. Better to wait and catch the next wave, which will doubtless be different.

Obama should be so smart.

To Whom Do You Go To Get The President Declared Incompetent?

Here he is today, blinded by his narcissism:


"But if you love me you've got to help me pass this bill."

What bill?

He keeps waving it around but the US House still doesn't have it.

Incompetent FBI Under Obama Again Raids an Incorrect Address

This time they got a CBS News employee's house by mistake.

Oops.

Story here.

Which Republican Woman is Desperate, Ambitious and Egotistical?

Sarah Palin, right?

No, that's The Ace of Spades on Michele Bachmann, crying "Bullshit!" on her anti-vaccination critique of Gov. Rick Perry, here:

Michelle Bachmann is desperate. She's an ambitious, egotistical woman who started running for President just two short years after she first ran for Congress. In the past two months her support went from 13% and rising to 4% and falling.

That's funny, Sarah Palin keeps launching salvos in the direction of the declared Republican candidates but keeps playing coy about her own candidacy, imagined she could resign her governorship and remain credible with the Republican rank and file, and plays the kingmaker in races all over the country on the basis of the thinnest of records of public service all the while touting that record as twenty years in public life, mutilating sweet reason all along the way.

Sounds pretty egotistical, ambitious and desperate to me.

The Republican Party still doesn't have its Margaret Thatcher. More like a pair of Molly Hatchets.

Depression of 2008-2009 Devastates Male Incomes to Levels Lower Than in 1978

And compared to the men, women still make 77 cents on the dollar.

Female participation in the workforce today merely keeps the household income picture from looking as bad as it could, but no one seems to reflect on the social costs to the country at large and to the children not raised by a parent in the home. Nor do many appreciate the massive cheapening of the worth of all labor which their participation necessarily caused starting in the 1970s.

What on earth was improved by nearly doubling the workforce and halving the income? The American family? In truth the only thing which was improved was the corporate bottom line, and the investor class which it rewarded.

And often the price was having a smart-mouthed, ungrateful, unemployed 26-year old college graduate still living in the basement trying to figure out how to pay off the college loan between bong hits. Imagine that person ever growing up, flying straight and voting for anything worthwhile except for goodies from Uncle Sam.

If the working women of America really wanted to change something, they'd unite . . . and go home.  

The data were reported here in The Wall Street Journal:

The income of the typical American family—long the envy of much of the world—has dropped for the third year in a row and is now roughly where it was in 1996 when adjusted for inflation.

The income of a household considered to be at the statistical middle fell 2.3% to an inflation-adjusted $49,445 in 2010, which is 7.1% below its 1999 peak, the Census Bureau said. ...

For a huge swath of American families, the gains of the boom of the 2000s have been wiped out.

Earnings of the typical man who works full-time year round fell, and are lower—adjusted for inflation—than in 1978.

Weiner's Seat in NY-9 Goes Republican for First Time Since 1920s

So says The Washington Post here:

Turner, who ran as a staunch conservative embracing the tea party, will be the first House Republican representing this portion of Queens since the 1920s — a striking departure from its Democratic traditions. This is the district that sent the late Geraldine Ferraro, the Democratic Party’s 1984 vice presidential nominee, to Congress, as well as Sen. Charles E. Schumer, one of the party most consistent liberal voices.

Evidently its Orthodox Jewish vote also was unhappy for some reason.

Tuesday, September 13, 2011

Sarah Palin's Neurons Are So Cross-Connected She Cannot Produce a Complete Sentence

You may verify the following completely incoherent excerpt for yourself, here:

Michelle Bachmann pointed out that Governor Perry's former chief of staff who then went to work for a drug company who made the drug that would be required of the Texan government to mandate that our young daughters would have to be inoculated against a potential disease from this company that his former chief of staff was lobbying for. That is crony capitalism. 

Here's the translation, in English:

Michele Bachmann pointed out that Governor Perry's former chief of staff went to work for a drug company which made the drug that the Texas government under Rick Perry required our young daughters to receive in order to be inoculated against a potential disease [.]  That is crony capitalism.

Ya got that?


Yes, it might indeed be crony capitalism, if only we understood what the hell you are trying to say, except that even if we did it pales in comparison to the way the Federal Reserve, and the Executive and Legislative branches of our government have conspired to bail out the bankers and big business at the expense of trillions to the electorate. Thanks Newt. Thanks Phil Gramm. Thanks Bill Clinton.


If only any of you had the brains to talk about that, or its twin problem ObamaCare. But no, you decide to criticize someone who's on your side just to score a few miserable points.


While I fully understand how a person of such limited intellectual ability can be awarded a college degree in our culture of decrepitude, what I cannot understand is the enthusiasm which a certain part of the electorate has for this woman. Being able to supply (!) and string together correctly a subject, verb and object should be the last thing on our list of presidential qualifications, but alas, it appears to be first.

The electorate which backs Sarah Palin should know better, and that a substantial part of it does not is the real cause for alarm.

Household Net Worth Through March 31, 2011 Still $7.7 Trillion Off Peak

As reported here on June 9th: [N]et worth was at $58.1 trillion in Q1 2011.

Barocky Road: Ice Cream of the Obama-Spread-the-Depression-Around

"Barocky Road is a blend of half vanilla, half chocolate, and surrounded by nuts and flakes. The vanilla portion of the mix is not openly advertised and usually denied as an ingredient. The nuts and flakes are all very bitter and hard to swallow. The cost is $82.84 per scoop . . . so out of a hundred dollar bill you are at least promised some . . . CHANGE! 

"When purchased it will be presented to you in a large beautiful cone, but after you pay for it, the ice cream is taken away and given to the person in line behind you . . . at no charge. You are left with an empty wallet, staring at an empty cone, and wondering what just happened to you. . . . Are you stimulated?"

Not quite the original Rocky Road, invented in early 1929, given that name subsequently in the ensuing economic depression of the 1930s, the name being an in your face demonstration of the pluck in the American character, as if to say, "Depression? What Depression? We'll eat your Depression and enjoy it, too!"

Today, we can't bring ourselves even to call what we're going through by its proper name.

h/t Chris

M-m-m-my Moroni

Moroni atop The Temple in Salt Lake City
Ooh, my little naive one, naive one
Open up a package of my moroni
Ooh, I think this guy is dumb, this guy is dumb
Top him with a little of my moroni

Never gonna stop, eat it up
Such a golden snack I always eat too much, then throw up
But I'll soon be back for my, my, my, yi, yi, woo
M-m-m-my moroni

Spreadin' it on really thick, in secret scripts
Spread it with a little of this moroni
Wear the glasses if you must, if you must
If you do I'm sure you won't miss my moroni

Never gonna stop, eat it up
Such a golden snack I always eat too much, then throw up
But I'll soon be back for my, my, my, yi, yi, woo
M-m-m-my moroni
M-m-m-my moroni

(belch)

Goin' to the temple now, temple now
I'm the city's biggest moroni buyer
Walkin' down the shopping aisles, shopping aisles
Filling up my basket with Joe the liar

Never gonna stop, eat it up
Such a golden snack I always eat too much, then throw up
But I'll soon be back for my, my, my, yi, yi, woo
M-m-m-m-m-m-m-my, my, my, yi, yi, woo
M-m-m-my moroni
M-m-m-my moroni
M-m-m-my moroni
M-m-m-my moroni


(with apologies to Weird Al)

Just 93 Million Full Timers in Private Sector Now Form the Tax Base for 53 Million Social Security Recipients

Some of the latest grim facts about Social Security, as reported here:

[T]otal revenue from Social Security taxes in 2010—$544.8 billion—was not enough to cover Social Security’s total benefit payments—$577.4 billion. ...

The Social Security board of trustees reported that there were 53.398 million Social Security beneficiaries in 2010. ...

93.641 million full-time private sector workers were the foundation of the tax base that supported both government at large and Social Security in particular.

Monday, September 12, 2011

Year Over Year GDP Declines From 1900 to 1949

1904 $  0.23 billion (1903 level exceeded in 1905): 3 years/a decline of less than one percent

1908 $  3.75 billion (1907 level exceeded in 1911): 5 years/a decline of eleven percent

1914 $  2.62 billion (1913 level exceeded in 1916): 4 years/a decline of less than seven percent

1921 $14.79 billion
1922 $  0.20 billion (1920 level exceeded in 1925): 6 years/a decline of almost seventeen percent

1927 $  1.40 billion (1926 level exceeded in 1928): 3 years/a decline of less than two percent

1930 $12.40 billion
1931 $14.70 billion
1932 $17.80 billion
1933 $  2.30 billion
1938 $  5.80 billion (1929 level exceeded in 1941): 13 years/a decline of over forty-five percent through 1933 with an additional six percent drop in 1938 relative to 1937

1946 $  0.80 billion (1945 level exceeded in 1947): 3 years/a decline of less than one half percent

1949 $  1.90 billion (1948 level exceeded in 1950): 3 years/a decline of less than one percent


Current revisions to GDP for 2008 and 2009 show declines of 0.3 percent and 3.5 percent, respectively, making the severity of the GDP decline most like 1938, though still not yet as severe.


Depression of 2008-2009 Comparable to 1938 in GDP Decline

Obama's Transformational Change of US Nuclear Weapons Posture Means We're Inviting Attack By Terrorists

From the source:

"[T]he United States will not use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear weapons states that are party to the NPT [Non-Proliferation Treaty] and in compliance with their nuclear non-proliferation obligations. ...

"The United States would only consider the use of nuclear weapons in extreme circumstances to defend the vital interests of the United States or its allies and partners.

"[T]he United States affirms that any state eligible for the assurance that uses chemical or biological weapons against the United States or its allies and partners would face the prospect of a devastating conventional military response – and that any individuals responsible for the attack, whether national leaders or military commanders, would be held fully accountable." (italics added)

Biggest Applause Lines From September 7, 2011 Republican Debate

"We should make English the official language of government."

-- Rep. Newt Gingrich

"But in the state of Texas, if you come into our state and you kill one of our children, you kill a police officer, you're involved with another crime and you kill one of our citizens, you will face the ultimate justice in the state of Texas, and that is, you will be executed."

-- Gov. Rick Perry

Full transcript here at The New York Times.

Reminiscent of Michael Savage's themes of borders, language and culture.

EU Crisis: PIIGS' Bankruptcy Could Dwarf Lehman's By Nearly Three Times

Phase One, in which Doris gets her oats, is now over.

Time to save your money. You're going to need it.

Carl Weinberg, the chief economist at High Frequency Economics is very worried about Europe. His central forecast is that the debt crisis will lead Europe into a depression that will mean soaring unemployment, deflation and zero interest rates for the foreseeable future.

After months of inaction, Weinberg believes the time to stop a Greek default has now passed. He believes that once it becomes clear that Greece has defaulted, the market will quickly come to the realization that other euro zone members like Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Italy will be allowed to fail as well.

With the so-called PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) sitting on 3 trillion euros in debt, Weinberg is assuming losses could ultimately hit 50 cents in the euro, leading to a 1.5 trillion euro hit to the financial system.

This will in Weinberg’s opinion force banks to stop lending. Governments will then be forced to bail them out, elevating debt-to-GDP ratios for national governments to "horrific levels".

Read the full story here.

Friday, September 9, 2011

The Shiller S and P 500 Price to Earnings Ratio Stands at 19.84

As reported here.

1974 to 1984 was one hell of a buying opportunity by comparison.

Unmanned Drone




















h/t Steyn

The New York Times Notices Sarah Palin Now Speaks Their Language

Here, where hope springs eternal:

Ms. Palin’s third point was more striking still: in contrast to the sweeping paeans to capitalism and the free market delivered by the Republican presidential candidates whose ranks she has yet to join, she sought to make a distinction between good capitalists and bad ones. The good ones, in her telling, are those small businesses that take risks and sink and swim in the churning market; the bad ones are well-connected megacorporations that live off bailouts, dodge taxes and profit terrifically while creating no jobs.

Strangely, she was saying things that liberals might like, if not for Ms. Palin’s having said them.

“This is not the capitalism of free men and free markets, of innovation and hard work and ethics, of sacrifice and of risk,” she said of the crony variety. She added: “It’s the collusion of big government and big business and big finance to the detriment of all the rest — to the little guys. It’s a slap in the face to our small business owners — the true entrepreneurs, the job creators accounting for 70 percent of the jobs in America.”

Is there a hint of a political breakthrough hiding in there?

Honey! I Shrank The Workforce!

Employed in January 2009: 142 Million. Employed in July 2011: 139 Million.

So Jim Powell, here, who says the private sector also has shrunk:


According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, there are fewer people employed now than back in January 2009 when Barack Obama was sworn in as President, and there are more people unemployed now than in January 2009.

Back then, a reported 142 million people had jobs. In July 2011, 139.2 million people had jobs.

In terms of employment, the private sector is smaller now than when Obama was sworn in. In January 2009, 110.9 million people were working in the (nonfarm) private sector, but by July 2011 there were only 109.9 million - despite the larger U.S. population in 2011.



Of Course It's Class Warfare!

And of course he's an ideologue, and of course Obamacare is a Bolshevik plot.

And of course whatever he says is not something, is that, and of course whatever he says something is, is not that.

Here's the video.

YOU LIE!

Arizona Power Company Employee at North Gila Substation Causes Massive Outage in San Diego

Oops:

"The outage was triggered after a 500-kilovolt (kV) high-voltage line from Arizona to California tripped out of service. The transmission outage cut the flow of imported power into the most southern portion of California, resulting in wide-spread outages in the region," according to Cal ISO. ...

The Arizona power company APS said the outage appears to be related to a procedure an employee was carrying out in the North Gila substation, located northeast of Yuma, Ariz. Operator error was determined to be the initiating event.

Operating and protection protocols typically would have isolated the resulting outage to the Yuma area. The reason that did not occur in this case will be the focal point of the investigation, which is underway.

More here.

Who needs terrorists when home grown incompetence will do?

Thursday, September 8, 2011

'Social Security's Long-Term Shortfall Grows About $1.2 Trillion Annually'

And by "long-term" the meaning is about 18 years.

So said Dennis Cauchon late in the spring for USA Today, here:

Social Security's long-term shortfall grows about $1.2 trillion annually — a sign of an imbalance between the number of young workers and older beneficiaries, according to the Social Security trustees' annual reports. The $21.4 trillion unfunded liability represents the difference between all taxes that will be paid and all benefits received over the lifetimes of everyone in the system now — workers and beneficiaries alike. This is the measure corporations and insurance companies use to assess financial adequacy of their retirement programs.

What this means is that this year and every year for the next two decades or so social security will be in the red annually to the tune of about $1.2 trillion, and government will have to borrow the funds to pay for that annual deficit spending.

Put another way, the social security scheme is a Ponzi scheme writ large. The pool of early fools putting up the dough for the few early, and very lucky, investors has now dried up so much that the program will run in deficit mode annually going forward, just like the rest of government has for years.

This will add significantly to the national debt, driving up interest payments on that debt and severely crimping the government's other spending options without massive injections of new revenues, aka higher taxes on the people.

In the short term, the $2.6 trillion in the social security trust fund (intragovernmental debt) would disappear in relatively short order under this analysis, say roughly in just over two years from now, except that the monies are invested in a mix of shorter and longer US Treasury securities which will reach maturity over a more or less longer period of time and thus force the program into deficit much sooner because redemptions are barred, compounding the pressure on the availability of funds for current year government spending.