Long-term unemployment is surging in the U.S. There are hidden costs for workers and the economy
Long term unemployment is . . . falling.
The four-week moving average of initial claims has been falling for a year.
The four-week moving average of continued claims has been falling for ten months, not very fast at first, but falling decisively nevertheless.
The actual number unemployed 27 weeks or longer is down since December 2025. Yes, it is slightly higher than in January.
The percentage of population unemployed 27 weeks or longer is not surging either. At 0.666% in April, the percentage has been holding fairly steady near this level also for ten months.
In this latter metric, a surge would look more like a steady climb toward 1.00% of population unemployed 27 weeks or longer, which is common after recessions begin. The climb to the current level has been very choppy, reflecting the chaos of positive and negative developments under Trump II.
And incidentally, a contraction in this metric falling below 0.5% would indicate good times are here indeed, so this right now is not that either, as Trumpty Dumpty keeps saying.
Of course all of this could be about to change for the worse because of oil.
Oil makes our world go round.
