Thursday, June 25, 2026

The current economic growth rate continues to underperform the post-war compound annual growth rate to Reagan by 42%

 1Q2026 real GDP in the third estimate today came in at an annualized rate of 2.1%.

The first estimate was 2.0%. The second was 1.6%.

The revision back up again and a little higher was "primarily reflecting a downward revision to imports", which are a subtraction from GDP.

Expect higher GDP in 2Q on the strength of oil exports. 

The post-war economic growth rate to Reagan was 3.64% compound annual vs. 2.1% now.

The compound annual rate 2017-2025 was 2.48%.

Trump is even underperforming himself by 15%.