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| Nebraska turnout in 2016 bests 2008 by almost 31% but lags 2012 by not quite 4% |
Wednesday, May 11, 2016
Trump wins in Nebraska besting McCain in 2008 but not Romney in 2012: The influence of #NeverTrump Senator Ben Sasse?
Tuesday, May 10, 2016
Ted Cruz earlier today: "But let's be clear, we're not going to win Nebraska today"
See for yourself, here.
As usual everyone's making a mountain out of a molehill, but refreshingly, NOT TED!
Monday, May 9, 2016
Rush Limbaugh perverts conservatism, says there's no other kind of conservatism than "ideological"
Earlier today on the show.
Actually, conservatism is nothing if it is not at bottom suspicious of ideology, as Theodore Dalrymple reminds us here:
Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn said of William Shakespeare, the 400th anniversary of whose death has just passed, that he was capable of writing tragedies only about individuals, or small groups of individuals, because he lived at a time without ideology. The latter was necessary for killing on a mass scale, Solzhenitsyn said. Two years after Shakespeare died, the Thirty Years’ War broke out, which reduced the population of Germany by about a third. The war was ideological.
Solzhenitsyn also said that the dividing line between good and evil ran through every heart. This is not a contradiction: Ideology encourages or makes easier the commission of evil.
The propensity to do good or evil no doubt varies between individuals for inborn reasons; but that propensity follows, or at least can be conceived as following, a normal distribution, a bell-shaped curve. At the extremes of the distribution are saints and monsters, the vast majority of us lying somewhere in between; but the whole distribution can be shifted in the direction of good or evil by circumstances, among which is the prevalent ideology. When the bell-shaped curve shifts in the direction of evil, disproportionate numbers of monsters emerge who do things that, at other times and in other places, they would not do.
Drive-by-media keep accusing Trump of flipping on tax increases, but Grover Norquist is having none of it
Reported here:
Anti-tax crusader Grover Norquist, who has backed Donald Trump's promised across-the-board tax cut, endorsed the plan Monday even though Trump now says some of the wealthiest Americans will be paying a bit more.
"Some people who organize their lives around tax credits and tax deductions might see some increase," Norquist told CNBC's "Squawk Box" a day after the presumptive GOP presidential nominee doubled-down on comments he made on CNBC last week. ... "Because Trump takes the top personal rate from 39.6 percent to 25 percent and the corporate rate from 35 percent to 15 percent, there is no way anyone would see an actual tax increase," Norquist said in a statement emailed to CNBC after the interview. "Trump's tax cut would be a tax cut for every American," he added.
Sunday, May 8, 2016
The back of the current very strong El Nino has been broken
After four consecutive measuring periods averaging 2.2 on the Oceanic Nino Index, the back of this current very strong El Nino (VSE) has been broken decisively by the last two measuring periods averaging 1.75.
The January-February-March period has been revised down from 2.0 to 1.9, followed by the initial reading for February-March-April coming in at 1.6.
To date this VSE has extended for thirteen periods still averaging 1.53, making it as long as the 1997-1998 episode but slightly weaker than its 1.56 average on the index.
If past experience is any guide, expect two or three more periods at 0.5 or above on the index before this VSE is finally over.
Currently about 34% of the nation is abnormally dry or worse. A year ago at this time almost 56% of the country was abnormally dry or worse. That's an almost 40% improvement in drought conditions thanks to El Nino rains.
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| Early May 2016 |
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| Early May 2015 |
Saturday, May 7, 2016
Republican presidential primary turnout in Indiana up 175% over 2008: 1.1 million in 2016 (Trump), 0.6 million in 2012 (Romney), 0.4 million in 2008 (McCain)
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| Indiana GOP primary 2016 |
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| Indiana GOP primary 2012 |
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| Indiana GOP primary 2008 |
Mike Huckabee goes "all in" for Trump Wednesday afternoon, urging an end to the anti-Trump movement within the GOP
Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, quoted here:
"I am all in for @realDonaldTrump and urge all the GOP to unite and win back the White House," Huckabee tweeted, linking to a statement that called Trump better than Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton.
Huckabee called on the anti-Trump forces within the GOP to give up on "the hapless 'Never Trump' nonsense."
Wow, Rick Perry endorses Donald Trump late Thursday, further isolating #NeverTrump
Rick Perry was NeverTrumper Erick Erickson's preferred 3rd party challenger.
Former Texas Gov. Rick Perry, quoted here:
"He is not a perfect man. But what I do believe is that [Trump] loves this country and he will surround himself with capable, experienced people and he will listen to them," Perry said Thursday.
"He wasn't my first choice, wasn't my second choice, but he is the people's choice," Perry added.
"I believe in the process, and the process has said Donald Trump will be our nominee and I'm going to support him and help him and do what I can," Perry said.
"He is one of the most talented people who has ever run for the president I have ever seen," he added, saying Trump knows how to market and brand like no one he has ever seen.
"Anyone who is considering a third-party run does not understand what is going on in this country -- does not understand the anger that the country has," Perry said.
Bob Dole endorses Trump after previously supporting Jeb Bush and questioning Ted Cruz' loyalty to the Republican Party
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| Sen. Dole, US Army 10th Mountain Division veteran, wounded since April 1945 |
Quoted here:
Former senator and 1996 Republican presidential nominee Bob Dole on Friday endorsed Donald Trump, becoming the latest GOP leader to back the real estate mogul even as others have distanced themselves from the candidate.
"The voters of our country have turned out in record numbers to support Mr. Trump," Dole said in a statement released by the Trump campaign. "It is important that their votes be honored and it is time that we support the party's presumptive nominee."
Dole had previously endorsed Jeb Bush and slammed Ted Cruz as an extremist liked by nobody in Congress. Interviewed in December here, Dole took particular exception to Ted Cruz calling Mitch McConnell a liar on the floor of the Senate. The irony of the campaign is that Donald Trump has made that charge stick to Ted Cruz instead. There are the Ted Cruz principles, and then there are the Bob Dole principles.
Sleeping with the enemy for 23 years, Bush cheerleader Mary Matalin switches to Libertarian Party
"I'm not a Republican for a party or a person," she explained, adding she pledged party loyalty in more of a "Jeffersonian, Madisonian sense." For her, the Libertarian Party "continues to represent those constitutional principles that I agree with." Matalin, who served as the campaign director for Bush No. 41 and as an assistant to Bush No. 43, swears her latest move isn't because of Donald Trump's ascension in the GOP, noting that so far she likes what she sees.
Elsewhere she tried to explain:
“I didn’t leave it, it left me,” she added. “When we had a standard-bearer with impeccable credentials in Ted Cruz and he’s loathed by the party leaders and he’s called a ‘wacko bird’ by the party leaders, where does that leave us? They left us!”
Evidently this is about the complete absence of any Republican commitment to reign in the size and scope of the federal government, but why doesn't she just come out and say so if that's what this is about? You know, like maybe mention Obamacare and Cromnibus?
That said, government got pretty big and intrusive under her pals George Herbert Walker Bush and his son George W. Bush when they were presidents. Hate speech legislation, Americans with Disabilities Act, savings and loan bailouts, drugs for seniors, TARP, et cetera. Where was the libertarian outrage then, huh?
At least we know she can't stand the John McCain, Lindsey Graham wing of the Republican Party.
Elsewhere she tried to explain:
“I didn’t leave it, it left me,” she added. “When we had a standard-bearer with impeccable credentials in Ted Cruz and he’s loathed by the party leaders and he’s called a ‘wacko bird’ by the party leaders, where does that leave us? They left us!”
Evidently this is about the complete absence of any Republican commitment to reign in the size and scope of the federal government, but why doesn't she just come out and say so if that's what this is about? You know, like maybe mention Obamacare and Cromnibus?
That said, government got pretty big and intrusive under her pals George Herbert Walker Bush and his son George W. Bush when they were presidents. Hate speech legislation, Americans with Disabilities Act, savings and loan bailouts, drugs for seniors, TARP, et cetera. Where was the libertarian outrage then, huh?
At least we know she can't stand the John McCain, Lindsey Graham wing of the Republican Party.
Friday, May 6, 2016
Wayward child Nebraska Gov. Pete Ricketts endorses Donald Trump, as does former Gov. Dave Heineman
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| Trump takes a scalp, as it were |
CNN reports here:
Some of the Ricketts family in Nebraska spent millions to defeat Donald Trump. Now the most high profile Ricketts is endorsing him. Nebraska Gov. Pete Ricketts on Friday put his support behind the presumptive Republican presidential nominee while appearing at a rally with him in Omaha, Nebraska. ...
"Ultimately, it's a choice election," former Nebraska Gov. Dave Heineman told CNN Friday. "It's Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton." Heineman, who endorsed Mitt Romney four years ago and is a longtime admirer of the Bush family, endorsed Trump this week. He said he is nervous that Trump will misspeak or be less-than-presidential, but believes the advantages outweigh the risks.
Mark Levin's talking history again because the present is just too painful
It's as though if you didn't fight in Iwo Jima, then you aren't entitled to an opinion as an American.
Yeah, "conservatism is about freedom", as if all those boys fought for your right to love a man.
Conservatism, not libertarianism, not Mark Levin.
From the Sean Hannity Dept. of Redundancy Department
"We have institutionalized bureaucracy."
No kidding. Hey, is there a bureaucracy that isn't an institution?
The guy reminds me of Yogi Berra: "We made too many wrong mistakes".
Trump is right that wages are too high: The minimum wage should be reduced to $4.20 per hour, not raised, to put teenagers back to work
Trump was right when he said during the debates that wages are too high. He was referring to our comparative disadvantage as a nation with lower wages abroad.
A key reason wages are "too high" in the US is because the minimum wage sets the floor for wages too high to begin with. That's why Trump said he didn't want to see a minimum wage increase. But we could actually start to reverse this problem by reducing the minimum wage to $4.20 per hour, not raising it.
Currently the federal minimum wage is $7.25 per hour, almost 73% higher than it should be.
The minimum wage set by the Fair Labor Standards Act of 1938 set the minimum wage at $0.25 per hour. Indexed to the Consumer Price Index since then, the current level should be about $4.20 per hour, through 2014.
One terrible consequence of artificially high wages at the bottom of the scale is that average teenage employment in the United States has plummeted from its high in 1978 and 1979 at 8.1 million to 4.7 million in 2015.
As recently as 2006 teenage employment averaged 6.2 million, but now on average 1.5 million fewer teenagers work compared to 2006 after a fusillade of minimum wage increases were unleashed beginning in 2007 under George W. Bush.
Demographics are not to be faulted. Birth rates have held steady between 1977 and 1999 at 15.525 per 1000, so that people born between those years turned 16 between 1993 and 2015, providing a steady supply and a steady level of young labor.
So compared to peak teenage employment, 3.4 million fewer teenagers work today even as the federal minimum wage was hiked ELEVEN times:
From $2.30 in 1976
to $2.65 in 1978,
to $2.90 in 1979,
to $3.10 in 1980,
to $3.35 in 1981,
to $3.80 in 1990,
to $4.25 in 1991,
to $4.75 in 1996,
to $5.15 in 1997,
to $5.85 in 2007,
to $6.55 in 2008,
to $7.25 in 2009.
That's a 215% increase in the minimum wage since peak teenage employment, accompanied by a 42% decline in that employment. You get the picture. Increase the cost of labor, and you get less of it.
Teenage employment is critical to transmitting our values to the next generation of Americans by giving the young an opportunity to gain the work experience and habits they will need to get that first "real" job, and to learn the relationship between effort and enjoying the fruits of labor.
Unfortunately their teachers and parents have not been communicating this message in word nor in deed. The socialism of Bernie Sanders is all the rage at the schools even as the parents idly answer the siren song of minimum wage increases sung by Republicans and Democrats alike.
The only problem with all that is, eventually the kids will run out of the fruits of other people's labor, including their parents'.
Trump causes widespread confusion telling West Virginians they don't need to vote in Tuesday's primary
I must admit I didn't post on it last night because I found it very confusing, assuming it would blow over.
It didn't.
Story here.
Maybe this is just Trump pulling everybody's chain again, keeping himself in the news cycle
Maybe this is just Trump pulling everybody's chain again, keeping himself in the news cycle
Thursday, May 5, 2016
Libertarians routinely play the spoilers in elections, but Rush Limbaugh is surprised the Koch Bros. may support Hillary
Our Big Fat Idiot strikes again.
Today, here:
I mean, the #NeverTrump movement's still there, and I'll treat you to them as the program unfolds. All kinds of major, big Republican donors are saying, "I can't do it! I just can't give my money to Trump." The Koch brothers are thinking of going with Hillary, for example. Which really surprises me. I mean, they are libertarians, and that just blows me away that the Koch brothers would be all-in for Hillary. But everybody's noses are still out of joint in a lot of ways. We'll see how people are feeling and thinking a week from now, two weeks from now.
Kasich changed his mind Wednesday morning after losing Reince Priebus' blessing Tuesday night
From the story here:
By Wednesday morning, Kasich appeared to have a full change of heart, when he was scheduled to hold a press conference at Dulles Airport near Washington. Dozens of reporters milled around in the lobby of a private aviation terminal, waiting for Kasich to arrive. As the scheduled time came and went, rumors began swirling. The Ohio governor had not left Columbus and was discussing his future with advisers.
Wednesday, May 4, 2016
Ted Cruz-Mark Levin-Rush Limbaugh conservatism UTTERLY REPUDIATED IN EVERY INDIANA CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
Where the true conservatism of American hearth, home and altar screamed "NO"! Indiana was a referendum on what Ross Douthat calls "True Conservatism", where it lost, in contrast to "ideological" Wisconsin, where it won:
In the days before and after the Wisconsin primary, with delegate accumulation going his way and the polling looking plausible once the Northeastern primaries were over, it seemed like Cruz could reasonably hope for a nomination on the second or third ballot. ... But it turned out that Republican voters didn’t want True Conservatism any more than they wanted Bushism 2.0. Maybe they would have wanted it from a candidate with more charisma and charm and less dogged unlikability. But the entire Trump phenomenon suggests otherwise, and Trump as the presumptive nominee is basically a long proof against the True Conservative theory of the Republican Party.
Presidential turnout since 1972: Increased participation favors Democrats, and maybe the anti-Bush former Democrat named Donald Trump
Presidential turnout since 1972:
Average percent of the voting age population: 53%
Average percent of the voting age population when Republicans win: 53% (average)
Average percent of the voting age population when Democrats win: 54% (1 point above average)
Average percent of the registered voters: 74%
Average percent of the registered voters when Republicans win: 73.9% (0.1 point below average)
Average percent of the registered voters when Democrats win: 72.9% (1.1 points below average)
Republican wins in elections most like 2016:
Average percent of the voting age population in 1980, 1988, 2000: 51.1% (1.9 points below average)
Average percent of the registered voters in 1980, 1988, 2000: 72% (2.0 points below average)
Democrat wins in elections most like 2016:
Average percent of the voting age population in 1976, 1992, 2008: 55.7% (2.7 points above average)
Average percent of the registered voters in 1976, 1992, 2008: 76.7% (2.7 points above average)
Small man: Trump congratulated Cruz last night, but Cruz didn't reciprocate
CNN has the Trump video here.
Rush Limbaugh caller "New Jersey George" explains how Ted Cruz picked a fight with midwest common sense in Indiana and lost
From the Rush Limbaugh transcript, here:
CALLER: Okay, Rush. Thank you for taking my call. Been with you for many years. Love you. I just have this feeling -- I don't know why -- but I just have a feeling that you're a Cruz supporter. Not a Trump supporter, I can't find that, but that's how I feel. But the reason I called, I just wanted to defend the guy that you called brain-dead yesterday. I watched that interview from the beginning, and, you know, we'll call him "braid-dead" since we don't know his name. He was a very polite protester. He was standing on the street with a Trump sign, and he wasn't bothering anybody, and, lo and behold, who comes along to cross the street, Ted Cruz.
Now, Cruz confronted him, and in the very beginning of the conversation, the number 1237 came up, and the guy knew what 1237 was, and he told Cruz in his opinion that Trump was gonna hit the 1237 and in his opinion would probably go over that. And then he also asked Cruz a question. He said, "I'd like to ask you a question. Why don't you step out of the race because you've indicated that Kasich should step out, and, since you've indicated that, you think that Kasich can't make it, and neither do we think that you can, why don't you step out?"
Now, the reason I mentioned these couple things to you, that doesn't seem to me as a brain-dead person. That's just my opinion. And a brain-dead person is just gonna stand there and look brain-dead. This guy had some some some substance there. So I didn't think it was fair that you labeled him as brain-dead. Then Cruz started his stump speech. And the guy was polite. He was listening and listening and listening, and Cruz was going over all his stump speech. And I think the guy had had it and finally didn't want to hear anything more, and he started yelling, you know, Lyin' Ted, Lyin' Ted, and he had had it. And that's just my opinion. And I -- I just feel that you labeled him wrong. And I might even think that sometimes maybe I might be part of the brain-dead crowd.
Another thing I just wanted to put in there real quick, I have a cleaning lady that was in my house yesterday, and she's from Thailand. And Trump came on television, and she looked up and she said, I used to work for him. I live 30 miles from Atlantic City. So she said, I used to work for him. And my wife said, what did you think? Again. And she said, he was very nice, he was a very nice person, he treated me with respect, and so did he treat all of us.
Now, they were just cleaning people in Trump's casino. One other quickie. I was in a restaurant a couple weeks ago, and the owner who I know came up to me, and he knows I'm a Trump guy, and he said I just gotta tell you something, he said I just had a guy was in here, and he got caught up in Trump's problems with the casino and he lost a hundred thousand dollars in the bankruptcy. He said, but I'm gonna tell you something. I lost a hundred G's, he says I'm gonna tell you, I'm voting for him. You know why? He's a straight shooter. He said he got caught up in a bad situation, and he did his very best, he says, so he's got my vote. I just wanted to pass these things on, and I want to tell you, I love you, I'll always be with you.
Tuesday, May 3, 2016
Indiana rejects Ted Cruz, who suspends a campaign descending into ugliness
A better man who really cared about the party and the country would have gotten out after Pennsylvania. Then again, a better man wouldn't have pulled a dirty trick in Iowa, or in Utah. How anyone can take the guy seriously as a Christian values candidate going forward is beyond me. Better to have bowed out earlier and salvaged a future for himself, but that was not possible for the man in a hurry.
Grand Rapids, MI experienced a reported temperature anomaly in April 2016 of 2.0 degrees F BELOW normal
Temperature averaged 46 degrees F, according to the preliminary monthly climate data for April 2016 in Grand Rapids, MI. The cumulative reported total anomaly year to date therefore falls from +9.3 last month to +7.3 degrees F in April.
Using the full NOW data set going back to about 1892, however, the cumulative temperature anomaly for the first four months of 2016 is +13.4 degrees F.
Precipitation was a reported 0.57 inches above normal, coming in at 3.92 inches.
Snowfall was 9.4 inches, 7.1 inches above the mean average of 2.3 for the month, calculated going back to the beginning of the record. Snowfall has come to 61.1 inches to date, 4.7 inches below the long term mean average of 65.8 inches to date, with two months left in the measuring period.
Heating degree days in April at 564 were just above normal, only 1.8% above the very long term mean of 554. The long term mean expected HDD to date would be 6411. Actual to date were 5390, 15.9% below normal, thanks to the El Nino, with two months left in the measuring period.
It is notable that neither this El Nino nor any other since 1950 has come close to producing the warm winter Grand Rapids experienced in 2011-2012 when the heating degree day measurement hit an all time record low of 5253. Placeholders two and three for warmest winters by HDD after 2011-12 were 1920-21 at 5520 and 1931-32 at 5619.
Average temperature in Grand Rapids was also an all time high 52.8 degrees F (mean is 48) in 2012. The only other years which came close were 1931 and 1921, both at 52.2.
The difference between the first four months of 2016 and of 2012 is cumulative anomalies of +13.4 vs. +18.5 degrees, or an average temperature monthly of 35.525 now vs. 40.15 degrees then.
Monday, May 2, 2016
Why does Glenn Beck still look like he could stand to fast like he's never fasted before?
I thought he was fasting every Tuesday for Ted Cruz.
And just how do you do that, fasting like you've never fasted before? If I'm not eating anything, I can't eat any less, can I?
Or is there some secret eatin' goin' on in Mormon fasting that I don't know about, which you can forego and then REALLY fast?
Oh boy, he really must mean it this time!
58% of Hoosiers disapprove of Ted Cruz/John Kasich tag-teaming to defeat Donald Trump
A question in the NBC/WSJ/Marist poll here showing Trump +15 in Indiana.
Ted Cruz' problem: He was for a wall in 2011 and 2012, but it's STILL not the centerpiece of his campaign
But Ted's problem is that he's FOR all kinds of stuff, and AGAINST all kinds of stuff, but nobody seems to believe him, primarily because he's too smart and too slick.
People believe Trump, because he's neither.
Under winner take all, Hillary would already be the nominee for the Democrats
Just counting the 35 states where a popular vote has been taken, under winner takes all delegates, including super delegates, Hillary Clinton has already clinched the Democrat nomination with her win in Pennsylvania.
Hillary has won 21 state contests so far, topping the 2382 delegates needed with 2523 because of Pennsylvania.
Bernie Sanders has won 14 state contests, but has garnered just 731 delegates under winner take all, including super delegates.
So far no popular vote was taken in Iowa, Nevada, American Samoa, Maine, Northern Mariana Islands, Alaska and Washington State.
The reality of the actual system, however, is that Bernie Sanders so far has accumulated 1357 delegates of both types, and Hillary 2165.
As in the Republican primaries, the also ran benefits at the expense of the front-runner.
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