Iran is in the ‘process of blinking’ over the Strait of Hormuz, Petraeus says
Monday, May 25, 2026
Failure of nerve: Trump's ceasefire has only made Iran stronger with each passing day and their negotiating position its strongest in 47 years
Hostilities lasted 38 days.
Today is the 48th day of the ceasefire, the chicken-out.
Asia is sucking fumes.
Europe is buying from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve and will be in trouble similar to Asia in June, and the US itself will develop problems in July.
Oil market at ‘tank bottoms’ in Asia, and Europe isn’t far behind, warns market veteran Jeff Currie
... “I would say, Asia, you’re there. Europe, give it about another month, and look for July being a problem in the U.S.,” Currie said. ... “Every day that goes by, Iran’s negotiating leverage compounds. Why? Because inventories of oil and inventories continue to drop,” he said. “The minute you think you won, that’s exactly when you know you probably lost, and their negotiating position at this point has never been stronger in the last 47 years.”
Sunday, May 24, 2026
Saturday, May 23, 2026
Trump's White House director of communications tells off former Trump Secretary of State, who is rightfully worried about today's Iran peace deal rumors
One of the more disgraceful displays of the second term.
Friday, May 22, 2026
Kilmar Abrego Garcia is a free man
... Sean Hecker, Abrego’s attorney, said that his client “is a victim of a politicized, vindictive White House and its lawyers at what used to be an independent Justice Department. We are so pleased that he is a free man. Justifiably so.” ...
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index at 44.8 has never been lower
... Gallup’s findings were echoed by University of Michigan data released Friday that showed consumer sentiment falling to its lowest point since the survey began in 1952. ...
-- WaPo
The index of consumer sentiment fell to 44.8 from a preliminary reading of 48.2. It’s also well below the 49.8 level seen at the end of April. ...
But it's the Golden Age!
Robert Kagan: Trump seems to hope to slip away without Americans noticing the magnitude of this defeat
Which is exactly what Trump did a year ago in the Red Sea.
Beyond the near term endgame Kagan describes, and the isolation of Israel in particular, Trump's cowardice, weakness, and incompetence will have the unintended consequence of reinvigorating the climate and green energy madness which has already weakened the West.
From the story here:
... In a phone call
with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu yesterday, Trump
reportedly explained that the United States was negotiating a “letter of
intent” with Iran that would “formally end the war and launch a 30-day
period of negotiations” on Iran’s nuclear program and the reopening of
the Strait of Hormuz. The purpose and effect of such an agreement should
be clear: The United States is walking away from the crisis.
... Trump has blinked many times in the confrontation with Iran—ever since
March 18, when Israel attacked the Pars gas field and Iran retaliated
with a strike against Qatar’s most important natural-gas-production
facility. Trump then called for a halt on U.S. and Israeli targeting of
Iran’s energy infrastructure, and the war effectively ended.
... [Iran's] terms for a settlement are those of a victor: They demand war
reparations, no limits on uranium enrichment, recognized control of the
strait, and an end to sanctions. For Trump to respond to this defiance by now calling for another 30 days of cease-fire and talks is a tacit admission of defeat.
... with 30 more days to heal, rearm, and fill its coffers with tolls, Iran will be a more formidable adversary. In 30 days, moreover, the new Iranian strait regime may already be firmly in place. As the Institute for the Study of War reports,
Iran has been using the cease-fire period [since April 7] to “normalize” its control
over the strait by “compelling oil-importing countries” to establish
transit agreements with Tehran and charging fees on vessels from nations
without such deals.
... Now that Trump has made clear he has no intention of fighting to reopen
the strait, the stampede to get good terms with Tehran will begin.
... By the end of 30 days, most of the world will have a stake in the new
arrangement and will oppose any resumption of hostilities, even in the
unlikely event that Trump wanted to go back to war. Trump no doubt hopes that he can slip away without Americans noticing the magnitude of this defeat.
... The president may also hope that he can change the subject by launching
another military operation, this time against the government in Cuba. ...
Republican Congress critters got the hell out of town Thursday and won't be back until June and left all this unfinished business in their wake lol
Republicans lash out over $1.776B ‘anti-weaponization’ fund
McConnell slams Blanche over ‘slush fund to pay people who assault cops’
Republicans punt on reconciliation amid furious disagreement over ‘anti-weaponization’ fund
House Republicans fume at Senate for punting immigration funding package
House punts Iran war powers resolution vote
Trump approval among Republicans at new low in Fox News poll
Trump, facing GOP blowback, sends 5,000 troops to Poland
(Trump orders withdrawal of 5,000 troops from Germany amid feud with Merz)
Thursday, May 21, 2026
Yesterday's reported week over week US drawdown of 17.8 million barrels of crude oil was the largest on record
The announcement was made as usual at 1030 hours.
To head off a price increase in oil Trump at 1052 hours announced that the US was in the "final stages" of the negotiations with Iran, which was a load of crap.
Middle East tanker transits per UKMTO JMIC Update 47 May 12-18, 2026: Strait of Hormuz 2.00/day, Bab-el-Mandeb Strait 15.42/day
The tanker table for JMIC Update 48 is a mess. It has the wrong dates, and five days of data are identical to the data in Update 47.
There was also a duplicate JMIC 46 update a few days ago, just minutes apart.
It is what it is.
 |
| From JMIC 47 |
 |
| From JMIC 48 (the dates should be 14 May-20 May like the Cargo Vessels table, but somehow the exact same data for May 12-16 from Update 47 reappears!) |
Look out Maine and New Hampshire, and North and South Carolina, they'll be comin' for your lithium when they come
... Mining these deposits would involve opening giant pits and destroying wildlife habitats, affecting the landscape and regional biodiversity. It would also create harmful pollution due to waste products such as fluids and finely ground rock that can leach trace elements
into the ground and waterways. Additionally, the heavy machinery that
would be required for hard-rock mining in the Appalachians would pump
huge amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, and extracting
lithium from those rocks would involve toxic chemicals and more greenhouse gas emissions.
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