Saturday, November 2, 2024
Friday, November 1, 2024
Stocks remain wildly overvalued and seriously underperforming
The S&P 500 averaged 5,792.32 in October 2024 (the all-time high was on 10/18 at 5,864.67).
Nominal GDP was updated on Oct 30th at $29.349924 trillion for 3Q2024.
That yields a ratio of SPX/GDP of 197.35 vs. median of 81.
Stocks remain wildly, obscenely, off-the-chart overvalued.
The formula is GDPx = SPX.
29.35(81) = 2,377.
The market would have to fall 3,415 points just to hit median valuation at current GDP, or about 59%.
You can see a similar analysis here, where the median is 79.7 vs. current 200.7.
Real return from SPX since Aug 2000 is now about 5.1% per annum vs. 7.4% before that (including the Great Depression, the depression of 1920, and every collapse before that going back to 1871), 31% worse.
We are living through developments echoing the lunatic era of the 1920s, which ended in tears.
Owe no man anything . . ..
Remember when Drudge falsely told people the "feds" said stop taking baby aspirin to prevent heart attack and stroke in October 2021?
No, Joe Biden, it's not illegal to shout "Fire!" in a crowded theatre.
But it is irresponsible, just like this.
See, it's not just me
I hardly cover it anymore because I'd have to rebut almost every Drudge headline. That's boring, and a full time job without pay.
Just 49.7% had a full-time job in October 2024 vs. 50.3% in Oct 2023 and 50.1% in Oct 2022
Just one percentage point of current civilian population is 2.69 million full time jobs.
The trend is worryingly down for the middle class, which needs full-time jobs in order to buy homes.
The percent working full time in Jun 2023 almost but not quite beat the high under Trump of 50.98% in the summer of 2019, but that was 16 months ago.
The Jan 2024 low was lower than the Jan 2023 low, too.
NOT GOOD.
Better save your pennies.
Thursday, October 31, 2024
Democrats sound the dog-whistle to legal and illegal aliens to go vote, Chinese non-citizen shows them all how to commit vote fraud at a polling place in Michigan
The Chinese man – a student at the University of Michigan – cast his ballot on Sunday and then reached out to local election officials later that day in an attempt to get the ballot back, according to a source familiar with the situation.
The man registered to vote at the polling place on Sunday, the source said. He used his university ID and other documents to demonstrate his residency in Ann Arbor while filling out a same-day voter registration forms, the source said. The Detroit News first reported the details. ...
WELL WHY WOULD HE DO THAT?
He's the sacrificial lamb, that's why.
All he risks is deportation for committing perjury and vote fraud. But there are millions of people here right now who should be deported for breaking the immigration law but Democrats won't enforce that law.
That's what's going on here: Don't admit you did it like this lunatic did and presto, nothing to prosecute!
But there is no mechanism to detect such lying, and Democrats aren't interested in creating one.
The rest of us are chumps, showing up with our drivers licenses thinking our id protects the integrity of the system when the system was deliberately designed with this giant same day registration loophole you could drive the entire communist party of China through.
The whole episode is a vote fraud instruction manual.
I wonder how much they paid him.
It appears that the student’s vote can’t be nullified after the fact and will be counted.
Washtenaw County Clerk Lawrence Kestenbaum told CNN ballots can’t be retrieved once they have gone through the tabulator. Unlike vote-by-mail, ballots cast at in-person voting locations don’t contain any identifying information about the individual voter, making it impossible to determine which one belonged to the student, Kestenbaum said.
“There’s a box of ballots underneath the tabulator and all of the ballots — they all look the same … there’s no way to go back and undo it,” Kestenbaum said in an interview.
Experts said this is a standard election procedure to maintain secrecy.
The story is here.
Yeah, let's blame the secret ballot now.
Wednesday, October 30, 2024
The Wall Street Journal: Trump is leading Harris among whites by 22 points, among seniors by 8 points
New record for gold: $2,789.73
Gold prices rose to a record high on Wednesday as uncertainty over the U.S. presidential election boosted safe-haven demand, with traders also awaiting economic data for cues on the Federal Reserve’s policy path.
Spot gold rose 0.5% to $2,788.89 per ounce after reaching an all-time high of $2,789.73 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures gained 0.7% to $2,799.90.
Honestly, I don't know how Staten Island does it
The landfill site operated from 1948-2001.
Pennsylvania, Virginia, Ohio, and South Carolina now get New York's garbage.
The rest of the country gets California's.
Tuesday, October 29, 2024
Kamala Harris is keeping quiet about climate change because the so-called Inflation Reduction Act's climate provisions are going to screw America good and hard for decades, to the tune of $3 trillion
The climate policies she would offer promise huge costs for negligible benefits. It’d be one thing to ask for sacrifices that could save the planet. But even at a whopping official price tag of $369 billion over 10 years, the Inflation Reduction Act’s climate measures as written were likely to lower the projected global temperature in 2100 by less than 0.03 degree Fahrenheit. In reality, the IRA has turned out to be an even rawer deal. The cost has rapidly ballooned to somewhere north of $3 trillion over 30 to 40 years, even as emission cuts have been slower and smaller than predicted. No wonder Ms. Harris isn’t trumpeting it.
-- Bjorn Lomborg, here
Kamala Harris was the tie-breaking vote in the US Senate twice to advance the bill into law.
COVID-19 hits record lows for October in national wastewater analysis from the CDC, vaccine uptake for 2024-2025 season languishes at 4.8% for children and 13.5% for adults 18 and older
Oct 15, 2022: 3.38
Oct 14, 2023: 3.81
Oct 19, 2024: 1.94 (low, approaching minimal)