Core pce inflation remained high but falling during Greenspan's first seven years, but stayed below the trend he helped to create for the remaining thirteen

PCEPILFE fell to 2.23% yoy in 1994 and as low as 1.27% by 1998 even as the Fed Funds Effective Rate (DFF) averaged 5.49% for four years 1995-1998.

Greenspan's observed "irrational exuberance" in stocks certainly wasn't caused by low interest rate policy. By today's standards his policy was hawkish even as the market formed a bubble.

His career core pce inflation performance averaged 2.46% yoy.  

It is difficult to imagine today's world being at all patient enough to tolerate Alan Greenspan, especially the Alan Greenspan of 1987-1990 when DFF averaged 7.89%.

He would be run out of town like Ben Bernanke and Jerome Powell, neither of whom arguably were in office long enough to really judge fairly by comparison with Alan Greenspan and both of whom were shabbily treated by Obama and Trump.

 

 

Trump's tech-bro tyranny is censoring Trump's critics

Musk Suspends X Accounts Criticizing JD Vance...

I can confirm from personal experience this weekend that this is true after being unaccountably disconnected multiple times just out of the blue and forced to log back in, only to have that process throttled as well. 

AMAZON, GOODREADS restrict reviews of Vance book after savage critiques...

He's killing the ducklings, he's killing the offspring of the wildlife that lives there

 

Dead duck found floating in Trump's new Reflecting Pool... 

A DEAD duckling has been found floating in Donald Trump’s troubled new Reflecting Pool – just days after workers dumped bleach-like chemicals into the water following its $14million revamp. 

... The sad discovery comes just days after workers were photographed pouring large bottles of hydrogen peroxide into the pool in a bid to tackle the growing algae problem, TMZ reported.

Hydrogen peroxide is generally considered safer than chlorine bleach because it breaks down in water – but high concentrations can pose a risk to ducks and other birds. ...

 

Middle East tanker transits June 14-20, 2026: Strait of Hormuz 5.4/day, Bab-el-Mandeb Strait 16.7/day

Tanker transits through the Strait of Hormuz would be normal if they were more like 70 per day total, in and out. This would be out of ~138 total transits, which is the normal historical average including also cargo/bulk/etc. vessels as stated in the latest JMIC Update 061.

We are nowhere close to that after Trump's so-called peace deal with Iran.

People who think the world isn't still headed to an oil supply crisis don't know what they're talking about. 

SoH E: 2.6/day; 4.3/day June 18-20 (lol get real)

BAM SE: 7.7/day  

The Maestro is dead, long live The Maestro

 

 Greenspan had the main ideas right:

Low inflation over full employment, because inflation is the worst tax on the people;

And broad property ownership as the foundation supporting the American economy and securing the consent of the governed.

During his nearly 20-year tenure, the Federal Funds Effective Rate averaged 4.87%. 

This is a really good look at Greenspan's career from Marty Steinberg at CNBC. It is one of the best reads I've had at CNBC in a long time. 

 Alan Greenspan, former chairman of the Fed, dies at age 100

... Throughout, he focused on fighting inflation over promoting full employment. His supporters say he presided over the longest economic expansion in U.S. history, but critics said Greenspan’s low interest rate policies set the stage for the housing bubble that burst into the Great Recession a year after his successor, Ben Bernanke, took the Fed helm.

... in his best-selling memoir “The Age of Turbulence,” he defended the low-rate policy, which encouraged people to buy homes: “I believed then, as now, that the benefits of broadened homeownership are worth the risk. Protection of property rights, so critical to a market economy, requires a critical mass of owners to sustain political support.” ... 

Two tier Keir calls it quits after the biggest Labour victory in decades in July 2024, had said he wouldn't and would fight

Joe Biden was once king of the heap, too, until his enemies to the left pushed him off.

That's the story in the UK, too, which CNBC doesn't tell you.

Socialist Andy Burnham led the rebellion against Starmer from within the Labour Party.

Burnham is a self-described enemy of British nationalism.

 

UK PM Starmer resigns as Britain faces its seventh leader in 10 years 

... Keir Starmer’s resignation comes almost 10 years to the day since the U.K. voted to leave the European Union. His successor will be the country’s seventh leader in that period, underscoring how political and economic turmoil continue to unsettle British politics long after the Brexit process was concluded.

 ... Starmer’s government was ultimately weakened by dwindling poll ratings, Labour infighting and growing public frustration over its failure to deliver quickly on growth and the cost of living. ...

If he really had fire in the belly he'd have said Hezbollah

 

J. D. Vance channels his inner Barack Obama

 

Real conservatism demands August be restored to Sextilis

Yes, it comes right after Quintillis. Sic semper tyrannis.

 

The UK Labour Party is cracking up as socialist Andy Burnham is set to challenge Starmer

 UK minister says PM Starmer is considering ‘political realities’ amid leadership pressure

... The threat to Starmer’s position, which has been building for months, increased sharply on Friday when former Greater Manchester Mayor Burnham won a seat in parliament that will allow him to launch a formal leadership challenge.

Starmer’s unpopularity was laid bare by the ruling party’s heavy losses in local elections in May, and polls of Labour party members indicate Burnham would win such a contest.

... Starmer has previously said he would stand in any formal Labour Party leadership contest that sought to replace him.

Leadership contenders need to amass the support of 81 Labour members of parliament - a fifth of those sitting - to launch a formal challenge.

With Trump a failure in the Red Sea in 2025 and now in the Persian Gulf in 2026, it's easy to imagine China pulling the trigger in Taiwan

China's Navy Tightening the Noose on Taiwan...

Good energy news

Russia Faces Spreading Fuel Shortages After Drones Pummel Refineries...

Still can't spell it

MAMDAMI-MANIA: Socialists Took City Hall. Now They're Aiming at Congress...

The Reflecting Pool paint job made it almost two weeks, the Iran peace deal almost one

 Iran reportedly closes Strait of Hormuz again, casting shadow over nuclear talks

Which is better? Two Weeks Trump, or One Week Trump?  

 

Always the last paragraph

 Israeli strikes kill 10 in Lebanon hours after ceasefire

... The U.S.-Iran understanding announced this week calls for an immediate, permanent end to military operations by the parties and their allies across multiple fronts, including Lebanon.

Israel, which was not part of those negotiations, has opposed provisions it says could constrain its campaign in Lebanon.

Dun dun ... dun dun ... dun-dun ... dun-dun ... dundun dundun dundun dundun dundun dundun dundun dundun

 

Isolationism at the G7

 

Zelensky had a blast at the Moscow oil refinery this week where he cooked up something extra special for Putin

 

Juneteenth 2026

 

You

 

The Biggest Scandal That Legacy Newspapers Won't Touch

Sen. Ron Johnson, X

 

What did you do with the fake elector ballots on January 6th, Senator? 

The paint's comin' off the peace deal faster than it came off the Reflecting Pool

 

See, we're living in his brain rent-free

 Trump claims Iran deal is ‘unconditional surrender,’ says his power has ‘no limits’: Axios 

... Asked what he had learned from the war about the limits to his power, Trump said that “I haven’t learned that lesson yet. I know there are, but there are no limits.” ... 

Nemesis is coming. 

The Reflecting Pool renovation by Trump's pool guy has failed in record time

 

JMIC states Strait of Hormuz open as of today and the U.S. Navy blockade at an end, tanker transits reported for June 11-17, 2026

SoH tanker transits 1.4/day, SoH E 0.9/day

BAM tanker transits 17.0/day, BAM SE 7.1/day

Strait of Hormuz Open

Blockade End

 

Trump has paved the way to the billions of dollars Vance says Iran will need to rebuild its nuclear program lol

 Yale man.

 

 

In Michigan's Democrat primary in Congressional District 2, The Detroit News endorses Ben Ambrose to run against Republican incumbent John Moolenaar

 

Yes indeedy

 Ukraine Launches War's Largest Attack On Moscow: Zelensky Says "If Ukraine Burns, Moscow Will Burn As Well"

Typical straw man argument from Trump when Saudi Arabia has primarily defensive ballistic missiles, 30x fewer of them than Iran, and used none of them in the recent war when Iran launched 135 against them

 Trump On Iran Deal: "What Am I Going To Do? Let Saudi Arabia Have Missiles, But They Can't?"

Trump makes Michigan Democrats nuts: They have a perfectly sane candidate in the centrist Stevens but are going for the progressive lunatic El-Sayed instead

 

 New Poll Shows El-Sayed With Big Lead in Dem Senate Primary in MI

I'm going to vote in this primary for Stevens. 

Creating space for taking the insane mullahs of Iran seriously is insane, Senator

 

 Sen. Eric Schmitt: Trump Created "Space For Diplomacy" With Iran That Experts Thought Was Impossible

Like I said, Trump is making us all nuts. 

Real Clear Politics puts a guy in its lineup this morning to whom the Obama presidential library denied access three times

 

A Tombstone for Obamaism

Ryan Zickgraf, UnHerd

 

"... the Obama Foundation denied my media credentials for the opening three times ..." 

 

Gee, why would Obama do that to someone who traffics in fabricated anti-gay slurs, even if they're about Trump?

 

 

 I carry no brief for Obama. I've been whaling on (look it up) the guy since 2009.

 

But criticizing Obama's so-called library because it's all about Obama, and Obama himself post-2016 for being apolitical, strike me as bizarre criticisms.

 

Isn't the latter what we want in an ex-president? In fact if the comparison is between George W. Bush and Barack H. Obama in their post-presidencies, it is Obama who has been far more political, most recently sealing the fate of Biden at the eleventh hour of the 2024 race. Bush merely fancies himself a painter.

 

That the Obama library isn't really a library only reminds us that the Affordable Care Act provided neither care nor affordability, just as America will not be great again when Trump leaves office and millions of illegal aliens will still be here.

 

To say that there isn't anything very tangible left of the Obama era can be said of all the presidents in our lifetimes to one degree or another.

 

Yes, it will be hard to ignore Obama's giant tombstone jutting up into the sky from Jackson Park, if you happen to be traveling there. Otherwise he'll be as forgettable as the next guy.

 

But to speak at this hour of Obama's excess of vanity when there has never been a more self-important and grandiose spectacle erupting daily from 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue than now in the person of Donald Trump is as batshit crazy as Trump is.

 

Trump is making us all nuts. 

CNBC now has the memorandum of understanding signed by Trump and the Iranian president

 Trump and Iran’s President Pezeshkian sign memorandum aimed to end war

... Sen. Bill Cassidy, a Louisiana Republican, in a post on X, called the deal “the worst foreign policy blunder in decades.”

Former President Ronald “Reagan is rolling over in his grave,” Cassidy wrote.

"Iran’s nuclear ambitions were not curbed, and they have learned that threatening the Strait of Hormuz works and will undoubtedly leverage it in the future,” Cassidy said.

“Now, Iran gets to build brand-new infrastructure under this deal. Before the war, the strait was open, Iran was being crushed by sanctions, and 13 service members were still alive. Now, 13 Americans are dead, families have paid billions at the pump, sanctions will be lifted, and the bombing has stopped. ..."

 

2027 global oil glut headlines, but 2026 historic lows are the present reality

 And Donald Trump has put Iran in the catbird seat. 

 World facing a glut of oil after Iran peace deal

... stockpiles are now dangerously low.

Among the 38 wealthier countries in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, stockpiles are at their lowest level since 1990, according to the IEA.

“Further declines in the coming months could still take global oil stocks to historic lows before the market balance shifts to surplus,” the IEA warned. ...

Markets to Warsh: Welcome to the party, pal

Do you think the markets care much about the Fed lol?

Ten articles on the front page right now at CNBC:

 

Warsh experiences worst ‘Fed day’ S&P 500 performance for a new chair since 1994 

Chairman Warsh abstains from giving rate forecast as several members signal a hike in 2026

2-year Treasury yield rockets higher as many Fed officials signal possible hike this year

Chairman Warsh drastically alters Fed rate statement. Here’s what’s changed

Fed holds interest rates steady: Here’s what that means for your borrowing and savings rates

Fed holds rates steady, pares down statement to remove cutting bias

Fed meeting recap: Warsh announces task forces to overhaul major Federal Reserve operations

Jeffrey Gundlach says Fed’s Warsh is not going to be the ‘easy money’ chairman many hoped for 

The market didn’t like what it heard from the Fed and its new leader Kevin Warsh

Five big takeaways from Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Fed chairman

 

 

Pete Hegseth impales an eagle

The Morons are on a roll.

 

 

This moronic spawn of John McCain doesn't know that Social Security taxes were increased at least a dozen times on boomers

 

This moron now calls Israel "a little location" and ignores that most of Europe is in range of Iranian ballistic missiles, which will only get more powerful and more accurate

 

This damn fool dithered for over two months AFTER the April 8 ceasefire before he finally figured out that the war he started was going to endanger oil supplies

 

Andrew Neil, former chairman of The Spectator: Trump partners with the tyrants of Tehran

 

The secrecy from Trump on the MOU is doing Trump severe political harm with his base

 

What we want is the truth

Can you imagine a Vance presidency?

I can't. 

Vance: Iran Deal Critics "Want This To Go On Until Every Bomb Has Been Dropped Or Until Every Iranian Is Dead" 

Three Iranian tankers exit U.S. blockade as shipowners eye Hormuz in ‘wary disbelief’ 

 ... The U.S. and Iran signed a Memorandum of Understanding on Monday to end the nearly four-month war, with a formal signing ceremony to take place on Friday in Geneva. The pact, whose details have not been disclosed, is expected to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and waive sanctions on Iran’s oil sales. ... 

Update 12:10pm 

Read the 14-point draft agreement between the US and Iran

... The 14-point memorandum of understanding has not yet been officially released but a copy of it was obtained by CNN from a US official.

... A White House spokesperson said the text did not reflect the actual memorandum. 

... The US official told CNN that the text reflects the agreement signed digitally by President Donald Trump, Vice President JD Vance and Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf on Sunday. 

... Bloomberg earlier published a version of the draft. ...                                          

Update 5:20pm

The CNN story above now contains the official agreement, as of 38 minutes ago.  

A day after the June 16th primaries, everybody has 95% of the vote counted, except for California

 

Middle East tanker transits June 9-15, 2026: Strait of Hormuz 0.9/day, Bab-el-Mandeb Strait 16.7/day

SoH E:  0.7/day

BAM SE:  8.4/day 

What he said

 

The key word in this story is not fascism but bloated lol

 

This moron doesn't know MOU-signer and IRGC general Ghalibaf has been Speaker of the Parliament of Iran since 2020

 

Yeah right, Trump will hear Bismarck and think breakfast, not statesmanship

 

Article after laughable article is wasted in this country saying "Trump should" this and "Trump should" that, when all they are doing is trying to make a purse out of a sow's ear.

The number of these is legion because everyone can sense that when it comes to Trump, there is no there there. He is an empty vessel into which every Tom, Dick, and Harry pours his most fanciful thoughts and wishes in a futile attempt to steer the man in what each thinks is the right direction. 

In Iran, Trump's Role Model Should Be Bismarck

Francis Sempa, American Spectator

You can always count on Brit Hume to state the obvious long after the fact

 Brit Hume: "Iran Has Lost A Lot, But This Is Not Unconditional Surrender"

 

 

Trump is a POS, he's describing what Putin does routinely to Ukraine and for which he never lifts a finger to complain to or sanction Russia

 Israel meanwhile sends evacuation warnings ahead of strikes.

 Trump: Israeli Attacks In Lebanon Are "Vicious," "Too Much" -- "Knock Down Entire Apartment House Looking For Someone"

It's a giant con: They signed a nothingburger with Iran, that's why they're not showing it to us

 

 

It is another desperate ploy to jawbone oil prices down in a world hurtling toward tank bottom.

 

Meanwhile, why did Vance have to sign?

 

Is Trump on his last legs?

 

And we're still dealing with Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf? I thought Trump said all this took extra time because they were trying to find a more moderate faction?

 

It's all BS, MS, Piledhigh and Deep. 

 

 

June 11:  Oil executives warn White House that gas prices will get worse 

 

... “Both camps know exactly what is at stake,” said one industry official who frequently interacts with the administration. “The industry folks are intent on making sure that if the worm turns, the White House does not point fingers that the industry did not do enough.”

“Everyone everywhere fully appreciates that the standoff cannot go on for another 30-45 days without the political calculations changing,” the official said.

“The White House knows and understands the severity of the potential situation. … They are politically constricted from saying that publicly.” ...

 

June 15: Trump, Vance, Iranian official sign US-Iran peace memo

... Both President Trump and Vice President Vance electronically signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran on Sunday, while Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, speaker of the Iranian Parliament, signed for the Iranian side, senior U.S. officials said Monday. ...

 

 Vance: Iran Deal A "Very General Document," We'll Figure Out The Details In The "Technical Negotiation Phase"

Vice President Vance acknowledged that the preliminary U.S.-Iran memorandum is only "about a page and a half" and described it as a "very general document. ... what the MOU does is set up a framework ..."                                   

 

Trump is a terrible judge of character. Ghalibaf is an IRGC fundamentalist.

 

 

C a p i t u l a t i o n

 

Make sure to write-in AI Mike Rogers in Michigan this November, who is guaranteed to be better than the real Mike Rogers

 

How do you spell Mamdani?

DC's Mandami Moment? Frontrunner for mayor is avowed Socialist...

 

... Janeese Lewis George, proudly affiliated with the Democratic Socialists of America ...

Middle East tanker traffic June 7-13, 2026: Strait of Hormuz 1.3/day, Bab-el-Mandeb Strait 17.0/day

SoH E: 0.7/day

BAM SE: 8.1/day

 

I guess he meant by us, not them

 

Yeah well, Gene Shalit was with NBC for 40 years, lightweight Bryant Gumbel, who had a knack for saying the wrong thing, for only 15

 May Eugene's memory be a blessing.

 

 

... During his tenure, he traded quips with anchors ranging from Edwin Newman, Barbara Walters and Jane Pauley to Tom Brokaw, Bryant Gumbel, Katie Couric, Jane Pauley, Al Roker and Meredith Vieira.

Gumbel was not always a fan, once saying Shalit's reviews "are often late and his interviews aren't very good." The critique came in what was supposed to be a confidential memo to Marty Ryan, the show's executive producer at the time. ...

More. 

Not to mention Jane Pauley. 

Gold and silver are down year to date, but not copper

 Copper is up because high oil prices are bullish for all things electric.

 

 

 

Trump merely decimated Iran, but Cushing he has annihilated