Ann Coulter remembers what day this really is

Rasmussen generic Congressional survey has Democrats at 47%, Republicans at 44%, 3% for other, 6% undecided

The stated margin of error is plus or minus two points.

Reported here:

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone and online survey finds that 47% of Likely U.S. Voters would choose the Democratic candidate if the elections for Congress were held today. Forty-four percent (44%) would opt for the Republican. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are undecided.

One week out, Democrats are very narrowly set to take the US House 219 to 210 with 6 races tied

With 204 seats already likely going Democrat according to Real Clear Politics, 15 toss-up seats tonight are favoring Democrats in the very latest polling, but only by the slimmest of margins, +2.46 per race on average:

MN-1

NV-3

NV-4

CA-10

CA-39

CA-45

FL-26

FL-27

IA-3

IL-6

NJ-7

NY-19

NY-22

VA-5

VA-7.

Five of these are one-point races, six are two-point races.

For their part Republicans are set to take 199 seats, with 11 toss-ups in their column with an average polling advantage per race of +3.27 in the last poll:

CA-25

CA-48

KS-2

KY-6

MI-8

NC-9

NJ-3

PA-1

TX-7

TX-32

WA-8.

Five of these also are one-point races, with just one two-point race.

Six seats remain all tied up in the latest poll in each race:

FL-15

ME-2

MI-11

MT-at large

NM-2

UT-4.

PA-1 goes dramatically from Democrat +7 to Republican +1 in the latest poll, UT-4 remains tied

The Utah poll previously showing the race tied runs through 10/26, but a different poll on 10/25 has just been reported showing the Democrat +7.

My rule is to use the latest poll for the math, so I'm making no changes. On top of that, the Democrat +7 result looks really suspicious given the large number of likely voters it claims to have polled, all in just one day! The untimely release is also a flag. They can poll nearly a thousand people in one day but it takes them four to report the results? Looks more like polling as publicity for the candidate in the final week of the campaign than anything else.

The Pennsylvania poll showing the big flip to the Republican is noteworthy because it's the very same poll which showed the Democrat so far ahead just two weeks earlier.

The math had been 220 Dem, 210 Rep, 5 Tied.

So PA-1 shifts that to 219 Dem, 211 Rep, 5 Tied.

Every Jew a .22, and every Christian a Smith&Wesson

NM-2 goes from Republican to tied in latest poll, CA-25 flips dramatically to Republican +4, VA-7 goes Democrat +1 from tied

The electoral math based on the last poll in each toss-up race had been 220 Dem, 210 Rep, 5 Tied as of last night.

So the new tie in NM-2 means the math becomes 220 Dem, 209 Rep, 6 Tied.

But CA-25 changes that to 219 Dem, 210 Rep, 6 Tied.

And VA-7 changes that to 220 Dem, 210 Rep, 5 Tied.

Real Clear Politics this morning shows 30 toss-up races, and otherwise gives the Democrats 205 to the Republicans' 200.

5 of the toss-ups are polling tied, 10 are polling Republican, and 15 are polling Democrat.

The average polling lead in the 15 Democrat toss-ups is 2.73 points.

The average polling lead in the 10 Republican toss-ups is 2.9 points.

These polls typically have a margin of error much higher than 2 to 3 points, so this is shaping up to be quite the narrowly fought contest rather than a wave election.

Democrats would be doing better had they not fielded so many extreme candidates.

Drudge is wrong: The deadliest anti-Semitic attack in US history didn't occur in Pittsburgh, not by a longshot

The deadliest anti-Semitic attack occurred in 1939 when FDR refused to let the MS St. Louis of the Hamburg America Line dock with its over 900 Jewish refugees from Hitler's Germany.

The ship eventually had to return to Europe and it is estimated that over 200 of its Jews ended up being exterminated in the camps.

So much for the Jewess's sonnet:

"Give me your tired, your poor,

Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,

The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.

Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,

I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"

Real Clear Politics removes NC-13 and NM-2 from toss-ups column, both now lean Republican

That reduces the toss-up races to 29 but the forecast math still shows the Democrats taking control of the US House 220-210 with 5 races tied based on the latest poll in each toss-up race. NC-13 and NM-2 were already in the Republican column based on the polling and so they were already Republican in the math.

With only one full week remaining in the campaign, expect the polling to become more predictive.

But as always, the only poll that counts is the one taken on election day.

Meanwhile in Chicago, Rahm Emanuel's town, 9 shot and killed last week, 42 in October and 420 in 2018 so far

Elizabeth who?

Obama flashes solidarity with white nationalists during anti-Trump tirade in Wisconsin

A guy just slaughtered a bunch of Jews in Pittsburgh but Twitter thinks it's still OK to give this guy a platform

Paul Gottfried has read Antifa's wunderkind Mark Bray and finds that there's no there there, just slogans

Proving once again that PhD's aren't what they used to be. Maybe it's time to draft them. 

The Myth Making of Antifa Intellectuals:

Despite its obvious incompatibility with the dominant political culture, the alt-right seems to have rallied philosophically deeper thinkers than the slogan-chanting adolescents who swarm around [Mark] Bray. ...

Bray’s Left has nothing in common with the Left that existed in interwar Europe. His field and passion are gender studies and “fighting racism.” These were hardly the major interests of anarchists and Marxists in the 1930s. Back then the Left was serious about a socio-economic revolution and showed no noticeable interest in identity politics or LGBT self-expression. It may even be a bit of a stretch to relate antifa activism to the protests in the 1960s that I personally witnessed. The demonstrators at that time opposed a prolonged war in Vietnam into which they might be personally dragged; others protested segregation, which really existed in some parts of the country. What similarly deep cause is driving Bray and his allies? I can’t seem to find one other than seizing power or simply letting off steam.

Time Magazine article rightly speaks up for American nationalism as modeled from The Bible

The upshot is that we need to get reaquainted with the Bible in our public schools, eject opponents of our common law from the judiciary, and speaka da English.

Nationalism Has Gotten a Bad Reputation. But It’s What America Needs Right Now:

Ancient Israel was, for generations of Bible-literate Americans, the prototype of a “nation.” ...

While biblical nations aren’t defined by race, they are also not merely “an idea.” Biblical Israel consists of a diversity of tribes, who are nonetheless bound to one another by language and law, and a mutual loyalty arising from facing adversity together in the past. ...

American nationalists used to think of their nation in just this way: Neither as a race, nor as an abstract “idea” — but rather as a diversity of tribes sharing a heritage and a mutual loyalty born of a joint history. The original American states, while internally diverse, nonetheless largely shared the English language, Protestant religion and the common law, and had fought Britain together. ... 

American nationalists sought to counterbalance increasing diversity with a carefully protected common cultural inheritance: New territories were admitted as American states only once they had an English-speaking majority and adopted the common law. The eradication of slavery in the South and polygamy among the Mormons was likewise the result of a common cultural inheritance, descended from English Puritanism, which Americans insisted on maintaining even at the price of coercion. It was not until after World War II that these core institutions at the heart of classical American nationalism — Biblical religion, the Anglo-American legal inheritance, and the English language — began to fade. 

Little-reported story about 2016 election survey found 38% of whites expressed strong feelings of white solidarity

The Demography of the Alt-Right:

The survey included 3,038 non-Hispanic white respondents. Among these respondents, only a minority expressed high values on any of the above questions: about 28% expressed strong feelings of white identity; about 38% expressed strong feelings of white solidarity; and about 27% felt that whites suffer a meaningful amount of discrimination in American life. A much smaller minority, about 6% of respondents, expressed all three opinions. It is worth noting that a 2017Washington Post-ABC News poll estimated that about 10% of respondents supported the Alt-Right.

In other words, the alt-right has a lot of work to do if it's going to convince the other 62% of whites to embrace their white identity.

On the other hand, the civilian non institutional white population in 2016 averaged 198.215 million people, 38% of which is 75.3 million "white aware" Americans.

From the Jews behaving badly file: Donna Zuckerberg recommends red pillers be quarantined online

That's right, put 'em in a ghetto, you know, like in Warsaw.

The sister of Mark Zuckerberg, discussed here, who doesn't "write classics" anymore than any other person does with one academic degree or another involving ancient Greece and Rome:

The classics writer said that while online anonymity allows people to spread hatred without facing repercussions, all online networks can strengthen misogynistic communities, simply by allowing more red pill members to reach each other. She suggested that misogynist groups could be quarantined, as one of Reddit’s red pill groups recently was.

Update to Cantrell Funeral Home scandal in Detroit: More than 370 bodies found dating back to 1996

Hoo wee, this story stinks.

What happens to nearly 400 human remains at Cantrell?:

[A]shes of more than 370 bodies, nearly two dozen of which appear to be military veterans, ... were abandoned at Cantrell in the spring. ...

A new owner, who purchased the building about a month ago, said the interior smelled horrible. The owner had removed four dumpsters of garbage as he started renovating the space to turn it into a community center. ...

[Brian] Joseph [the owner of Verheyden Funeral Homes in Grosse Pointe Park], who arrived at Cantrell even before the state investigators, was let in by the owner.

The state contacted Joseph, [Joseph] said, because in the spring, as Cantrell's financial and regulatory problems became evident, he had offered to help the operator, Raymond Cantrell II, who had inherited the business after his father died in 2016.

Cantrell then asked Joseph to honor more than 500 of his pre-arranged funeral contracts.

The money paid on the contracts is held by a third party and Joseph said he does not profit from them. He agreed, he said, because Cantrell's father had been a contemporary of the former owner of his funeral home, and he believes that he has a duty to help others in need.

In April, the state suspended Cantrell's license, citing "deplorable, unsanitary conditions." Among the problems authorities found were six decomposing bodies — three men, two women and a male fetus — in the funeral home. 

Again, to help, Joseph quietly arranged for the bodies to be buried during the summer at Mount Olivet, which donated space and services. Santieu Vaults in Livonia donated the burial vaults which protect bodies while in the ground.

Joseph is now trying to help identify the hundreds of containers holding cremated remains, some of which appear to go back to 1996. Many of the remains have names with the date the person died, Joseph said, but finding relatives and loved ones is a challenge. ...

"It's a horrible situation," said John Desmond of A.J. Desmond & Sons Funeral Directors, summing up the problems with remains that were hidden and left behind. "This is the most egregious behavior that I have ever heard of in my 50 years of being licensed in the state of Michigan."

Lesson of the Florida "bomber": They don't "x-ray" the mail at any point in the system to keep bombs out

Rush Limbaugh confidently misinformed millions of his listeners this week that the USPS scans suspicious packages in order to intercept them and keep them away from the public.

For his part, radio personality Michael Savage laughably spent most of the week wondering how all these "bombs" could be "hand-delivered" all over the place supposedly without entering the postal system, because he believed fake news to that effect. It must have been a conspiracy! The van was too clean after all that driving up and down the east coast and to California and back! The stickers on the windows were too recently affixed because they weren't yet faded!

What we learned once again, however, was that the USPS only isolates suspicious packages for scanning by outside authorities. The cost of installing such scanners in every postal sorting facility would cost billions of dollars the already bankrupt USPS doesn't have. In this instance, the USPS was alerted to the package M/O by the outside authorities after the fact, after some of the "bombs" had already been delivered. The USPS was told what to look for, not the other way around. 

This affair exposes the fact that the entire USPS system remains vulnerable to penetration by serious terrorists at any time, and that a person who really intended to harm others, say with bombs, could do so as long as the intended target isn't too famous. That's why the more serious threats are the poisoners, who can still reach their intended famous targets occasionally with letters, such as Vanessa Trump. The contents of mail are not "scanned", only the fronts and backs are imaged and the images stored. That's how the authorities, once alerted to the problem in Florida, "were reviewing mail streams in and out of Florida, attempting to pinpoint locations where the parcels may have originated", as reported in the USA Today story linked below.

A real bomber in this instance would have rigged his packages to blow up as they are opened by the designated target, as when a box lid lifted on its hinge triggers a circuit with a detonator. Of course, the difficulty of getting such a package into the actual hands of famous persons with staff protecting them from such an eventuality is a thought which cannot have escaped the mind of Cesar Sayoc.

A real bomber does not stuff active devices into padded envelope mailers as Sayoc did, where they could blow-up indiscriminately under normal, rough handling, including in his own hands. A real bomber does not leave finger prints behind on his mail bombs, especially if his fingerprints are already in the crime reporting system due to many prior arrests and convictions.

It's almost as if poor Cesar Sayoc, aged 56, suddenly homeless and forced to live in his van, intended to get caught so that he could finally escape all his problems and finally get a roof over his head and three square meals a day for the rest of his life after so many years of struggling with poverty.

CNN reported here:

Bomb suspect Cesar Sayoc had been kicked out by his parents, so he has living in the van that we have seen in pictures today, according to a law enforcement official. ... Sayoc was initially somewhat cooperative, the official said. He told investigators that the pipe bombs wouldn’t have hurt anyone and that he didn’t want to hurt anyone. 

USA Today reports here:

The total number of bombs reached at least 14 Friday after more suspicious packages were recovered: one in Florida addressed to New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker, another in New York addressed to former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper, a device recovered at Sen. Kamala Harris’ office in Sacramento, California, and another package that was intercepted at a mail facility in Burlingame, California, addressed to billionaire Tom Steyer.

Harris’ office says it was informed that the package was identified at a Sacramento mail facility. The FBI responded to the facility in a South Sacramento neighborhood that’s been blocked off by caution tape.

A package addressed to Clapper was recovered at a Manhattan postal facility. Like some of the previous packages, the one found in New York City on Friday had the office of Florida Democratic Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz as the return address, a photo obtained by CBS News showed. ...

The suspicious package intended for Clapper was spotted by a postal worker at the Radio City Station facility at around 8:15 a.m. The employee contacted U.S. Postal Inspection Service, and they contacted the NYPD and FBI.

NYPD Bomb Squad officers scanned the package and saw what appeared to be a pipe bomb, NYPD Deputy Commissioner for Intelligence and Counterterrorism John Miller said at a Manhattan news conference.

The latest poll in IL-6 flips the seat from red to blue by +2

That changes the electoral math from 219-211-5 to 220-210-5, putting the Democrats in control of the US House by a slim majority of three if the election were held today and the voters voted exactly in sync with the very latest poll in every Real Clear Politics "toss-up" congressional district.

218 seats are needed for a majority.

UT-4 remains tied in the latest poll there.

NBC joins CNN as enemies of the people, had exculpatory information on Swetnick claims but sat on it to help Democrats defeat Kavanaugh

Once Again, NBC Sits On Story Related to Sexual Misconduct Until After It Matters:

[T]his makes three times that the network has been reluctant to run important, high-profile reports related to sexual misconduct.

The DOJ goes nuclear on Trump in the delay game on FISA warrants to cover up FBI wrongdoing, hoping Democrats win the US House in November

From the story here:

In court filings last week the Department of Justice deployed what could be the nuclear option in its latest effort to prevent President Trump from declassifying information regarding FISA warrants used to spy on his campaign aide Carter Page: It is claiming that such a move would interfere with Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation. 

This is the first time the DOJ has explicitly made this argument implying personal peril for the president, since interference could open Trump to charges of obstruction of justice. Until now, the department has argued that declassifying the documents threatened national security.

In the 178-page court document, DOJ officials said they had “determined that disclosure of redacted information in the Carter Page FISA documents could reasonably be expected to interfere with the pending investigation into Russian election interference."

That rationale has heightened suspicions among congressional investigators that the special counsel is being used to prevent the disclosure of possible FBI abuses and crimes committed during the Russia probe. ...

[S]ources told [Real Clear Investigations] that the president and the DOJ are at a standoff. “Trump knows that what’s in those documents clears him of all the collusion stuff,” said a third congressional source, “and it shows the FBI was doing some very bad things.” 

 

But what’s now keeping Trump from pulling the curtain back on the Russia investigation is the probe itself. “That’s the leverage the DOJ has on Trump,” explained this source. “Nothing on Russia or collusion or anything like that — it’s the actual investigation. If he’s seen to be interfering, they move to obstruction.”

GDP is growing at a rate 66% better under the first two years of Trump than under the last two years of Obama

NJ-3 tilts back to the Republican by +1 in the latest poll as other toss-up races tighten

The math thus shifts from 220-210-5 back to 219-211-5 with Democrats winning the majority by just 2 seats.

Meanwhile CA-10 has tightened from D+5 to D+2.

NY-22 has tightened from D+2 to D+1.

TX-7 has tightened from R+3 to R+1.

What better way for Antifa to discredit the right than by sending "bombs" to prominent Democrats?

Democrats (especially the neoliberal establishment standing in Bernie's way) are Antifa's enemies as much as are Republicans, who together all represent "the system" which these anarchists insist must be overthrown, including Bernie who is an anachronistic nationalist.

Sarah Silverman, specialist in "black comedy", went blackface in 2007 and can't go back (sorry Jimmy Kimmel), worked for NBC just like Megyn Kelly

Here.

Back when Jimmy Fallon was a kid, you know, in 2000, it was OK to APPEAR in blackface on NBC, not just talk about it

Reprised here.

Back when Jimmy Kimmel was a kid, you know, in 2000, it was OK to wear blackface and go on to work for ABC

Here.

NBC fires Megyn Kelly, proving once again, as Bertie might say, that liberals are humorless dolts

Latest poll in NJ-3 flips seat to D+2 from R+2

That changes the latest US House math from 219-211-5 in favor of the Democrats to 220-210-5, based solely on the latest poll in each of the 31 toss-up races.

Obama takes credit for the upcoming recession

Obama: When you hear economy is improving, 'remember who started it’:

"So when you hear all this talk about economic miracles right now, remember who started it," he said to thunderous applause and a standing ovation. 

National Review commenter: "American politics is a varitable buffet of stupidity at the moment"

I'd say so, verily verily.

Latest poll tips FL-26 to the Democrat by +1, was previously Republican by +1

That takes the math to Democrats winning the majority 219-211 with 5 seats tied based on the latest poll in each of the 31 toss-ups.

Of the 31 current toss-ups, 10 races are +1 either way and 5 are tied, making 48% of the toss-up races just that close.

Of the 10 races +1, they are evenly split Democrat and Republican.

Polling remains out-of-date in 11 races, or 35% of the toss-ups, dating to September. Of those 6 favor the Democrat plus a seventh race is tied. Just four of these 11 races are +1 with one in the Democrat column.

Gov. Cuomo, NY's version of Hitler, says he got a bomb too when he didn't, hastily deploys 100 National Guardsmen on streets anyway

We have to restrict freedom in order to preserve it!

Reported by NBC here:

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo revealed that one of the packages was addressed to him and sent to his office.

"A device has been sent to my office in Manhattan which we were just informed about and that device is being handled," he said.

But shortly afterward, the FBI said that Cuomo's office had not received an explosive device and a Cuomo spokesman said the package contained computer files on the Proud Boys, a far right hate group some of whose members were recently arrested in Manhattan.

Saying he was acting "out of an abundance of caution," Cuomo later dispatched 100 members of the National Guard to beef up the already tight security at key New York City crossings, the airports, and in the subway system.

Remember when ricin was sent to Trump, Mattis, Wray, Haspel, Wilson and Richardson in early October?

You know, to the president, the defense secretary, the FBI director, the CIA director, the secretary of the US Air Force, and the Chief of Naval Operations from that guy in Utah?

Yeah, me either.

Odd how the media just let that pass into oblivion.

Really odd.

Whoever sent the pipe bombs to Democrats was just following Hillary's logic

Hillary 10/9/18: "You cannot be civil with a political party that wants to destroy what you stand for, what you care about.”

Aww, how come no one ever sends me a bomb?

Best Democrat political ad of the season

Here.

Kavanaugh effect evaporates in Rasmussen generic congressional poll, Democrats take 3-point advantage

Democrat 47%

Republican 44%

Other 3%

Undecided 6%

Reported here:

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone and online survey finds that 47% of Likely U.S. Voters would choose the Democratic candidate if the elections for Congress were held today. Forty-four percent (44%) would opt for the Republican. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are undecided.

False flag operations: "Potential" bombs sent to Hillary and Obama after one allegedly sent to Soros yesterday

Right wing violence, right on time for the elections after nearly two years of violence from the left!

Anthony Weiner probably sent them from the penitentiary in exchange for early release.

The Chicoms are the new Nazis and it's high time experts stopped using euphemisms for it like "authoritarian capitalism"

Like Brahma Chellaney, here:

China still gets a free pass on human-rights abuses, from holding up to a million Muslims from Xinjiang province in internment camps to effectively kidnapping Interpol President Meng Hongwei. And, despite his assertions that the Obama administration's response to China’s activities in the South China Sea was “impotent,” Trump has done little to counter Chinese expansionism. ...

China is already challenging the US for technological and geopolitical primacy, and flaunting its authoritarian capitalism as an alternative to democracy. Communism couldn’t pose a credible challenge to liberal democracy, but authoritarian capitalism might. In that sense, China’s model represents the first major challenge to liberal democracy since the rise of Nazism.

MN-1 moves into Toss-up, Democrat polls +2

That makes the math 218-212-5, with a majority for the Democrats, based on the latest poll in the toss-up races.

Latest polling tips NM-2 Republican +1, taking away Democrats' 218 majority

The math this morning is now Democrats 217, Republicans 213, Tied 5 based on the latest poll in each toss-up race for the US House.

US House Election Snapshot for Tuesday 10/23/18: Democrats win control with 218

Real Clear Politics has the race at 205 Democrat to 200 Republican with 30 toss-ups.

Based on the latest polling date in each of the toss-ups, Democrats pick-up 13 and Republicans pick up 12 with 5 more races officially tied.

Democrats win control 218-212-5.

14 contests have severely out-of-date polling, however, 13 from September and 1 from August. 16 contests have the latest poll taken sometime in October.

Republicans own the October polling: Republican 8, Democrat 4, Tied 4. The average lead for Republicans is +3.375 and for Democrats is +4.25.

Democrats own the out-of-date polling, throwing cold water on their projected win: Democrat 9, Republican 4, Tied 1.

The average lead in Democrat polling overall is +3.3 and in Republican is +2.75.

Bradley Manning finally goes all the way and gets a chopadickoffamy as Trump sides with chromosomes

Chelsea Manning posts post-surgery Twitter photos following gender reassignment surgery

The Trump Administration Is Right To Define Gender Biologically:

The Trump administration is moving forward with efforts to define gender on the basis of biological sex, reversing decisions under the Obama administration that essentially allowed individuals to choose their own sex for federal government purposes. A new memo from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services argues federal agencies need a definition of sex and gender that is defined “on a biological basis that is clear, grounded in science, objective and administrable.”

The changes are to take place under Title IX section of a 1972 law that bars sex-based discrimination in federally funded education institutions, but could have far broader implications, in areas such as single sex settings and set aside programs. ...

The fact of the matter is that while academics and activists have been running around willy nilly changing the definition of sex and inventing 72 (at least) new pronouns, none of this has been rooted in any kind of confirmable science. It is farcical to think that the state can somehow keep up with such changes or pursue policies regarding sex without a workable and consistent definition.

Piers Morgan: Trump is kicking Democrats' ass

Piers Morgan, here:

According to the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, Trump is now at 47% approval, compared to Obama’s 45% two weeks before the midterm elections in 2010. ...

And I see a President who’s growing stronger by the day.

Trump’s become a political Godzilla, crushing everyone who dares challenge him and bulldozing his way through an agenda that is beginning to pay real dividends.

In less than two years, Trump’s got two nominees onto the Supreme Court, entrenching a Conservative majority.

He’s slashed taxes, and regulations – sparking a boom in the US economy that shows no sign of stopping, a surge in jobs and record low unemployment.

Trump’s forged a peaceful dialogue with North Korea, launched a trade war with China that many think is long overdue, withdrawn from the obviously flawed Iran nuclear deal and Trans-Pacific Partnership, forced Mexico and Canada to update NAFTA, bullied NATO countries into paying their bills, and bombed ISIS out of Iraq and Syria.

He’s also clamped down hard on illegal immigration.

As I write this, a ‘caravan’ of more than 7,000 Central American migrants – most of them from Honduras - is moving towards the Southern border.

They intend trying to enter the United States illegally.

It’s hard to think of a more powerful image to vindicate Trump’s much criticized demand for a new ‘Wall’, isn’t it?

Hillary inner circle member at State Dept. Philippe Reines justifies personal intimidation of Republicans because they're white nationalists

Here.

The rhetoric of Democrats and so-called journalists like John Harris is seamlessly spoken.

Politico co-founder and so-called journalist John Harris should suspend and fire himself

From the story here:

Both VandeHei and Harris are familiar with how severe the repercussions for opinionated tweets can be. In 2012, when they were running Politico together, the organization suspended and then fired a reporter because of remarks he had made on television and Twitter, including one remark suggesting that Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney was only comfortable around white people.

In the memo announcing the journalist's suspension, Harris and VandeHei reminded staff that all journalists had a "clear and inflexible responsibility to cover politics fairly and free of partisan bias."

Democrat frauds, let me count the 1/1024 ways, but the most important is the 0/1024

Your almost VP Tim Kaine again calls for street violence

Laugh of the Day: Christian Science Monitor suggests "alien invasion" could unite Americans, or "climate change"

Talk about being out of touch.

The latest invasion is on the way from Honduras as we speak and the last thing I expect to see is Democrats and Republicans unite to stop it.

Instead Democrats intend to welcome the invasion with open arms.

Here:

The parties could also unite to solve an overarching national goal. The problem here is, what? Absent an alien invasion requiring Americans to pull together, what goal would suffice? Some experts suggest climate change, but that would require Republicans to change position and favor more active intervention on the issue.

Laugh of the Day: Axios/Politico co-founder complains reporters always seem to prove they are leftists on social media, should hide it to deceive!

Jim VandeHei.

Here:

Media: News organizations should ban their reporters from doing anything on social media — especially Twitter — beyond sharing stories. Snark, jokes and blatant opinion are showing your hand, and it always seems to be the left one. This makes it impossible to win back the skeptics. 

Democrats in this cycle are clearly lacking the wave leadership like Rahm Emanuel once provided in 2006

Case in point, TX-23, discussed here at length by The Other McCain:

The Republican incumbent there scarcely fits the stereotype of a right-winger. Will Hurd is the only black member of the Texas GOP congressional delegation, a former CIA officer who has held the seat since 2014. The largely rural district, which stretches all the way from the suburbs of San Antonio in the east to El Paso in the west, is majority Hispanic and the congressional seat has changed hands five times between Republicans and Democrats since the 1990s. Hurd won re-election two years ago by a margin of barely 3,000 votes and was obviously a vulnerable target in this year’s midterms, but Democrats appear to have fumbled away their chance of winning in TX23 by nominating a pro-abortion Filipina lesbian as their candidate.

Gina Ortiz Jones was recruited into this campaign by Democrats at a time when feminist rage over Trump’s 2016 election was a fresh wound in the Left’s collective psyche, and it appears they didn’t bother asking whether she was a good match for the district. Jones has made a point of using her mother’s maiden name with the slogan “One of Us, Fighting For Us” in her campaign. However, she’s not Hispanic. Her mother immigrated from the Philippines and her white father (who never married her mother) was a drug addict. While she used “Ortiz” to play the identity-politics game with Texas voters, she used a similar message to solicit support nationally from Trump-haters, promising to become the “first Filipina-American and first out-lesbian to represent Texas in Congress, and she’ll be the first woman to represent her district.” She was endorsed by all the usual suspects of left-wing extremism, including pro-abortion groups like Planned Parenthood and Emily’s List, pro-homosexual groups like Equality PAC, Human Rights Campaign and the LGBT Victory Fund, and the anti-Israel JStreetPAC, as well as the Feminist Majority, People for the American Way and the AFL-CIO. She is campaigning on an agenda that includes socialized medicine, taxpayer funding for abortion, gun control, and amnesty for illegal aliens.

Well, good luck selling that to voters in rural Texas, ma’am. Anyone with a lick of common sense could see the problem with trying to run such a campaign in TX23, but Democrat voters in the five-way March primary paid no heed to common sense and, after she defeated Rick Trevino in a May runoff, Ms. Jones became a darling of her party’s liberal donor base. By the end of September, she had raised more than $4 million, but it now seems all that money has gone to waste. 

US Chamber of Commerce strategist predicts Republicans keep US House 222-213

The current US House is controlled by Republicans 236-193.

Blue wave hope ebbs as GOP rebounds:

To galvanize their voters, Republicans are airing attack ads that argue Democrats would target Trump and Kavanaugh, unleash mob rule and threaten cultural values. "Closing with a little fear," said Scott Reed, senior political strategist at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, describing the GOP approach. Reed predicted that Republicans would keep their losses to 20 House seats, just under the 23 Democrats need to return to power. Republicans are favored to hold their majority in the Senate, which stands at 51-49. 

The WaPo typist of this article for the Democrat Party leads off with some amusing fantasies:

Underscoring the fast-changing political fortunes are the cold calculations by both parties in the final days.

 

The GOP is redirecting $1 million from a suburban district in Colorado to Florida, bailing on incumbent Rep. Mike Coffman to try to hold an open seat in Miami. Democrat Donna Shalala, a former Health and Human Services secretary in the Clinton administration, is struggling to break away from Maria Elvira Salazar, a Cuban American and former television anchor, in a district Hillary Clinton won by nearly 20 points.

Republicans have also pulled back in a Democratic-held open seat in Nevada that includes some of the suburbs of Las Vegas. Clinton won there, as well.

Democrats, meanwhile, are cutting funds in a GOP-held district in Nebraska and a Democratic-held district in northern Minnesota, two places Trump won. The latter represents one of the GOP's best chances to flip a seat from blue to red.

Start with Coffman's Republican seat in CO-6.

It was slated to go Democrat already over a month ago at Real Clear Politics when I checked on September 17th. And it had been a toss-up on September 10th. Whatever's happening with the money there, CO-6's shift toward the Democrat is not part of "fast-changing political fortunes . . . in the final days". The shift occurred much earlier.

As for Donna Shalala in FL-27 (Clinton retread!), she isn't "struggling to break away from Maria Elvira Salazar". Her support there has been ERODING, from likely Democrat in early September to leans Democrat in mid-September to toss-up in mid-October. The Republican Salazar is actually ahead there in the only poll available. The recent movement is all toward the Republican.

Same thing with the open Democrat seat in NV-3. Whatever the parties are doing with their money, the seat has been in the Democrat column for well over a month, since September 10th. But today it's a toss-up. The movement has been toward the Republican, but you would never know that from this propaganda piece.

And why mention Democrats shifting money out of Nebraska? Oooh Mable, look at that! Nebraska doesn't even have a seat on anybody's radar because there isn't one, but saying so makes it seem like there is, deep in the heart of Republican flyover country. The mission is to demoralize Republicans with this stuff, made up out of whole cloth. The Republican Bacon in NE-2 is ahead by nine points.

MN-8 is also instructive. It's not just that Republicans have there "a chance to flip a seat". The Democrat candidate there was +1 to begin September in the NYTimes poll. By mid-October the same poll has the Republican +15. Again, the direction is (massively in this instance) toward the Republican.

Of ten specific races identified in the story, I put six in the Republican column (NE-2, FL-27, MN-8, MI-6 [the Democrats' own latest poll there has Upton up by three], MN-1 and TX-23), one in the Democrat column (CO-6), and three in the toss-ups (NV-3, KY-6, PA-1).

60-40.

Looks more like a Republican wave, not an ebbing Democrat wave.

Despite alarmist headlines, Italy knows it can play chicken with the Euro cheaters up north and win because Super Mario will do "whatever it takes"

That's the lesson of Greece and Italy knows it. If there is no way the EU would let Greece go, there is no way Italy or Spain or Portugal are going to be let go, either.

Meanwhile, enjoy these alarmist headlines from a gold fundamentalist.

Italy Bond Yields Surge In Confrontation with ECB President Mario Draghi:

In theory, German, Italian, and Greek 10-year bonds should all have the same yield. In practice, they clearly don't. The difference is perceived default risk. The odds of Italy leaving the Eurozone are rising.

"One Size Fits Germany" Math Impossibility, Get Your Money Out of Italy Now!:

[I]nterest rates are on the verge of spiraling out of control in Italy. ... In theory, German, Italian, and Greek 10-year bonds should all have the same yield. In practice, they clearly don't. The spread between German 10-year and Italian 10-year bonds is 330 basis points (3.3 percentage points). The difference is perceived default risk. The odds of Italy leaving the Eurozone are rising. On September 28, Italy's proposed budget deficit of 2.4% sent bond yields soaring. And they haven't stopped.

The yield on the 10-year has been a lot higher for a long period of time than it is right now.

Everyone should relax and enjoy the show. Who knows, maybe this will force the other rule breakers to clean up their act a little bit, at least for a little while.

Pollsters on both sides agree: Bye Bye Blue Wave

Like it ever existed in the first place.

The Blue Wave was a joint creation of the Democrat Party and its allies in "communications", which is to say it was manufactured out of whole cloth for anyone who still happened to turn on the TV or the radio to get "the news". The number one objective? Demoralize the electorate which made Trump president. The polling operations funded by the Democrat media provided "proof". Like the cell phone towers which litter the American landscape, their websites became the online repeaters of this "information".

The point of this propaganda was to create the wave, not report on it.

Some polling operations were more honest, or stumbled into the truth.

Rasmussen has had the race tied twice, as far back as mid-August and also in early October (Christine Blasey Ford testified and Brett Kavanaugh defended himself on September 27th, flipping the poll from Dems +5 to Tied by October 4th).

Investors Business Daily had the race tied already in late July.

Rasmussen has had the race as close as Democrats +1 way back in May.

So did Reuters/Ipsos.

Just remember folks. For every 108 members of Communications faculties in America's colleges and universities, there are exactly ZERO registered Republicans among them.

Just about everyone you listen to in this country for information, from the time you're in kindergarten all the way to the retirement home, is a registered Democrat, or was "informed" by one.

Steve Liesman, here, getting out in front of the lies to burnish CNBC's credibility:

The latest CNBC All-America Economic Survey offers mixed signals, but leans against a wave Democratic election like ... those that swept Republicans to power in 2010 and 2014. ... "A six point differential is not something that's going to cause a big electoral wave," said Micah Roberts, the Republican pollster on the CNBC poll, a partner Public Opinion Strategies. "Economic confidence that people have among a lot of groups is providing a buffer" for Republicans. ... Jay Campbell, the Democratic pollster for the survey and a partner with Hart Research Associates, is skeptical of a wave for the Democrats, saying the six-point advantage is "not enough to suggest this is going to be a massive wave election a la 2010." Campbell did add that the survey found a large 17 percent of undecided voters who will be critical to the outcome.

Salena Zito thinks John James could beat Debbie Stabenow in Michigan

"With a little flow of cash and some borrowed time, he could be this year’s Larry Hogan — the Republican in a blue state no one was watching who got swept up in a wave in Maryland to win the governor’s office in 2014."

Read about it, here.

Police find many more infant bodies in another Detroit funeral home as scandal expands

This story is the macabre bookend to the grisly Kermit Gosnell infanticide case in Philly.

63 remains of fetuses removed from Perry Funeral Home in Detroit:

[T]wo attorneys said they believe many more infants’ remains may be found in the improper possession of the Perry Funeral Home, perhaps as many as 200, based on their research of log books kept by the Wayne State University School of Mortuary Science. The funeral home routinely deposited infant remains at the WSU school’s morgue, then failed to follow up with parents’ wishes for the remains to be used in research by the WSU School of Medicine, they said.

“I’m really wondering where all the rest of them are,” Cieslak said late Friday. The lawsuit filed by the two charges that Perry may have fraudulently billed Medicaid, as well as the Detroit Medical Center, for burials it never performed. The lawyers said they can’t estimate how much money might be involved, “but it must be significant,” Parks said.

"We already have people calling us, after seeing the news, saying 'this happened to me,'" he said.

Elizabeth Talking Bull and her horse Stormy

If Democrats aren't more careful people might get the impression that white liberals are just a bunch of cultural appropriators

Looks like Stormy Daniels was stalking Barack Obama long before Donald Trump came on the scene

And just like that, Elizabeth Warren becomes instantly 100% white

What Elizabeth Warren has in common with a duck

Elizabeth Warren is so white she could be the poster girl for Ivory Soap

Pro-Democrat Politico wouldn't write a story like this if the Blue Wave hadn't fizzled already

How Republicans could (barely) hang on to the House:

[P]rivately, even a few Democrats — say the GOP could still hang on, if only by a few seats. ... Democrats have pulled money out of several districts that should be competitive, indicating that Republicans have solidified their leads in the closing days of the campaign. ... Democrats should have had “these seats put away by now, and they don’t,” House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) said in an interview. “I feel like they’ve hit a ceiling and held there — and we’re coming back.”

No Senator, it's just a helicopter you see, not an Indian

Noncompetes: Tell me about it

It ain't capitalism when the capitalists try to eliminate competition . . . especially yours.

Even janitors have noncompetes now. Nobody is safe. :

It’s this perception of a legal threat, Starr, Prescott and Bishara found, much more than the reality of whether they could actually be sued that explains why people turn down job offers because of noncompetes. The predictable result is that workers with noncompetes tend to stay in the same job a lot longer. So it should be no surprise, as the U.S. Treasury points out, that noncompetes are also associated with lower wage growth. It isn’t easy to negotiate a raise when you can’t use other offers as leverage.

The so-called tight labor market is a euphemism for age discrimination by employers

Employers can't find enough young, cheap labor because of declining birth rates, reducing the available pool (blue line year over year growth in decline on an average basis since the mid-1980s, lower than 1% for 20 years).

There's still plenty of older, more expensive labor out there, but employers keep getting rid of them and won't rehire them (red line year over year growth steady between 2-3% for 20 years).

Alan Greenspan's tight labor market is fake news: Unemployment is really 8.4%

In September 2018, the civilian labor force was just 62.7% of the civilian noninstitutional population (161.958 million X 100 / 258.290 million = 62.7).

Not seasonally adjusted, this yielded an unemployment rate of 3.6% (5.766 million unemployed X 100 / 161.958 million = 3.56, before rounding up).

Unfortunately that's only because the labor force shrank by 8.5 million since 2008. The labor force then averaged 66% of the civilian noninstitutional population, not today's 62.7%.

Taking 66% of September 2018's civilian noninstitutional population means a labor force of 170.5 million instead of the not quite 162 million we've actually got. Where'd all those 8.5 million go? New Zealand?

Add 'em back in on both sides of the equation, both to the size of the labor force and to the unemployed, because they are obviously not working, and unemployment soars to . . . 8.4% (14.266 million unemployed X 100 / 170.458 million = 8.36).

All this labor slack is the reason wages fail to go up at rates of 3-4% as in previous recoveries.

It's not a tight labor market.

Elizabeth Warren's updated 2020 Election chances

House projection with 19 days to go: Republicans keep the House 218-217 in the worst case scenario

Real Clear Politics has the current math at Democrats 206 to Republicans 199, with 30 toss-ups, 29 of which are Republican.

To date 15 formerly Republican seats have shifted to Likely/Leans Democrat in the so-called Blue Wave, or 34% of the total 44 Republican seats at some level of risk of flipping. Defying that trend, 3 formerly Democrat seats have shifted to Likely/Leans Republican.

Were the Democrat trend to continue, which is now however unlikely in view of Democrat missteps in the Kavanaugh affair and other public relations disasters, Democrats might be expected to peel off at most 10 more of the 29. Add the Democrat toss-up seat, and Democrats finish with 217, one shy of a majority.

That's my story and I'm stickin' to it.

Until next week.

If we had 66% of the population in the labor force like we still did in 2008, it would be 8.5 million larger in 2018 than it is

dailyvaluewatch.blogspot.com

Elizabeth Warren's DNA results

Former wrestler pins down Russia collusion hoax in record eight seconds

Republicans slip one point from tied with Democrats in latest Rasmussen generic Congressional poll

Dems 45

Repubs 44

Other 4

Undec 7

Reported here:

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone and online survey finds that 45% of Likely U.S. Voters would choose the Democratic candidate if the elections for Congress were held today. Forty-four percent (44%) would opt for the Republican. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided.

When obsessively choosing the free market over union shops makes you an inauthentic socialist candidate for the US House