Wednesday, June 20, 2012

Goodbye Euro. Get Ready For The New Thaler, The Dollar's Forebear.

From Germany, of course.

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard summarizes the recent developments about a North-South split in Europe, here:


Unease over escalating euro rescues is building by the day in Germany. Forty economists and professors have written a joint letter to Mrs Merkel proposing a break-away "Northern Euro", exhorting her to step back from the brink before making the "even greater error" of ratifying the ESM.

The group said Berlin must clarify exactly how much Germany could stand to lose from the ECB's internal payments system, known as Target2. The Bundesbank claims on fellow central banks have exploded to €699bn, or 27pc of German GDP. The arcane issue of Target2 has fueled a hot-tempered debate in Germany over who foots the bill if monetary union falls apart.

The professors called for study laying out the pros and cons of a return to the D-Mark, or the creation of a new currency or "North Euro" led by Germany, the Netherlands, and like-minded states.

The idea of a North Euro -- or "Thaler", the coin of the late Holy Roman Empire -- was first [m]ooted by the former chief of the German Industry Federation, Hans-Olaf Henkel.

It would let southern EMU states to keep the euro and uphold euro debt contracts. The region could reflate and regain trade competitivenes with a weaker exchange rate.

While the letter is unlikely to sway thinking in Berlin, such radical proposals are gaining a wider hearing. Georg Schuh, chief investor of Deutsche Bank's DB Advisers, said the crisis is terminal. "A break-up of the eurozone is very likely. Capital markets have already priced it i[n]. I think we are in the end-phase," he said.