Gold shot up on Friday to about $1,604 the ounce, as did oil to almost $85 the barrel, in doing which both proved that neither gold nor oil really believes in the concurrent and dramatic stock market gains, nor that Merkel's concessions to Italy and Spain are fundamentally positive.
The Shiller p/e ratio is elevated over 35 percent above the mean of 16, as the Standard and Poor's 500 itself lagged both gold and oil and was up only 2.5 percent. In other words, it's closer to its upper bound than is gold, which vaulted 3.5 percent, and oil, which spiked over 9 percent. In the only contest that counts, hard assets won again.
Spain and Italy need to borrow more cheaply than the bond market is allowing at the moment, and now we are told both countries are going to be allowed to borrow from the European Stability Mechanism, which doesn't yet exist, hasn't been approved by all members, has so far very little capital, and both Italy and Spain are themselves supposed to be contributors to it at the same time they need help from it.
As others have pointed out, the ESM will fail because it will not provide an infinite pool from which to borrow. Once its limited reserves have been tapped, the bond market will come calling again.
It is noteworthy that this time the sovereign borrowing will not subordinate other borrowers. This is being viewed as a way to de-link the sovereigns and the banks and maintain the value of the bond pool and hence subdue rising yields, making it easier for the sovereigns to borrow. What it really represents is the further debasement of the sovereigns.
Also noteworthy is the fact that the borrowing will not be counted against EU fiscal requirements, and will be lawfully conducted off balance sheet. This amounts to a step toward less transparency, not more, and resembles nothing so much as the gigantic global banking operations who seek sovereign protections while carrying structured investment vehicles off the books.
All of which amounts to Germany giving its approval to cheating by Spain and Italy because they are too big to fail if the euro is to succeed. Portugal, Ireland and Greece were not similarly treated. So much for the rules.
Also noteworthy is the fact that the borrowing will not be counted against EU fiscal requirements, and will be lawfully conducted off balance sheet. This amounts to a step toward less transparency, not more, and resembles nothing so much as the gigantic global banking operations who seek sovereign protections while carrying structured investment vehicles off the books.
All of which amounts to Germany giving its approval to cheating by Spain and Italy because they are too big to fail if the euro is to succeed. Portugal, Ireland and Greece were not similarly treated. So much for the rules.
"Europe" is still a fiction, except to the extent that this deal looks hastily cobbled together so that everyone can go enjoy their 6-week summer vacation.
Pretty shabby.
Pretty shabby.
