Wednesday, October 31, 2018
Rasmussen generic Congressional survey has Democrats at 47%, Republicans at 44%, 3% for other, 6% undecided
The stated margin of error is plus or minus two points.
Reported here:
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone and online survey finds that 47% of Likely U.S. Voters would choose the Democratic candidate if the elections for Congress were held today. Forty-four percent (44%) would opt for the Republican. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are undecided.
Tuesday, October 30, 2018
One week out, Democrats are very narrowly set to take the US House 219 to 210 with 6 races tied
With 204 seats already likely going Democrat according to Real Clear Politics, 15 toss-up seats tonight are favoring Democrats in the very latest polling, but only by the slimmest of margins, +2.46 per race on average:
MN-1
NV-3
NV-4
CA-10
CA-39
CA-45
FL-26
FL-27
IA-3
IL-6
NJ-7
NY-19
NY-22
VA-5
VA-7.
Five of these are one-point races, six are two-point races.
For their part Republicans are set to take 199 seats, with 11 toss-ups in their column with an average polling advantage per race of +3.27 in the last poll:
CA-25
CA-48
KS-2
KY-6
MI-8
NC-9
NJ-3
PA-1
TX-7
TX-32
WA-8.
Five of these also are one-point races, with just one two-point race.
Six seats remain all tied up in the latest poll in each race:
FL-15
ME-2
MI-11
MT-at large
NM-2
UT-4.
Monday, October 29, 2018
PA-1 goes dramatically from Democrat +7 to Republican +1 in the latest poll, UT-4 remains tied
The Utah poll previously showing the race tied runs through 10/26, but a different poll on 10/25 has just been reported showing the Democrat +7.
My rule is to use the latest poll for the math, so I'm making no changes. On top of that, the Democrat +7 result looks really suspicious given the large number of likely voters it claims to have polled, all in just one day! The untimely release is also a flag. They can poll nearly a thousand people in one day but it takes them four to report the results? Looks more like polling as publicity for the candidate in the final week of the campaign than anything else.
The Pennsylvania poll showing the big flip to the Republican is noteworthy because it's the very same poll which showed the Democrat so far ahead just two weeks earlier.
The math had been 220 Dem, 210 Rep, 5 Tied.
So PA-1 shifts that to 219 Dem, 211 Rep, 5 Tied.
NM-2 goes from Republican to tied in latest poll, CA-25 flips dramatically to Republican +4, VA-7 goes Democrat +1 from tied
The electoral math based on the last poll in each toss-up race had been 220 Dem, 210 Rep, 5 Tied as of last night.
So the new tie in NM-2 means the math becomes 220 Dem, 209 Rep, 6 Tied.
But CA-25 changes that to 219 Dem, 210 Rep, 6 Tied.
And VA-7 changes that to 220 Dem, 210 Rep, 5 Tied.
Real Clear Politics this morning shows 30 toss-up races, and otherwise gives the Democrats 205 to the Republicans' 200.
5 of the toss-ups are polling tied, 10 are polling Republican, and 15 are polling Democrat.
The average polling lead in the 15 Democrat toss-ups is 2.73 points.
The average polling lead in the 10 Republican toss-ups is 2.9 points.
These polls typically have a margin of error much higher than 2 to 3 points, so this is shaping up to be quite the narrowly fought contest rather than a wave election.
Democrats would be doing better had they not fielded so many extreme candidates.
Sunday, October 28, 2018
Drudge is wrong: The deadliest anti-Semitic attack in US history didn't occur in Pittsburgh, not by a longshot
The deadliest anti-Semitic attack occurred in 1939 when FDR refused to let the MS St. Louis of the Hamburg America Line dock with its over 900 Jewish refugees from Hitler's Germany.
The ship eventually had to return to Europe and it is estimated that over 200 of its Jews ended up being exterminated in the camps.
So much for the Jewess's sonnet:
"Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"
Real Clear Politics removes NC-13 and NM-2 from toss-ups column, both now lean Republican
That reduces the toss-up races to 29 but the forecast math still shows the Democrats taking control of the US House 220-210 with 5 races tied based on the latest poll in each toss-up race. NC-13 and NM-2 were already in the Republican column based on the polling and so they were already Republican in the math.
With only one full week remaining in the campaign, expect the polling to become more predictive.
But as always, the only poll that counts is the one taken on election day.
Saturday, October 27, 2018
Paul Gottfried has read Antifa's wunderkind Mark Bray and finds that there's no there there, just slogans
Proving once again that PhD's aren't what they used to be. Maybe it's time to draft them.
Despite its obvious incompatibility with the dominant political culture, the alt-right seems to have rallied philosophically deeper thinkers than the slogan-chanting adolescents who swarm around [Mark] Bray. ...
Bray’s Left has nothing in common with the Left that existed in interwar Europe. His field and passion are gender studies and “fighting racism.” These were hardly the major interests of anarchists and Marxists in the 1930s. Back then the Left was serious about a socio-economic revolution and showed no noticeable interest in identity politics or LGBT self-expression. It may even be a bit of a stretch to relate antifa activism to the protests in the 1960s that I personally witnessed. The demonstrators at that time opposed a prolonged war in Vietnam into which they might be personally dragged; others protested segregation, which really existed in some parts of the country. What similarly deep cause is driving Bray and his allies? I can’t seem to find one other than seizing power or simply letting off steam.
Time Magazine article rightly speaks up for American nationalism as modeled from The Bible
The upshot is that we need to get reaquainted with the Bible in our public schools, eject opponents of our common law from the judiciary, and speaka da English.
Ancient Israel was, for generations of Bible-literate Americans, the prototype of a “nation.” ...
While biblical nations aren’t defined by race, they are also not merely “an idea.” Biblical Israel consists of a diversity of tribes, who are nonetheless bound to one another by language and law, and a mutual loyalty arising from facing adversity together in the past. ...
American nationalists used to think of their nation in just this way: Neither as a race, nor as an abstract “idea” — but rather as a diversity of tribes sharing a heritage and a mutual loyalty born of a joint history. The original American states, while internally diverse, nonetheless largely shared the English language, Protestant religion and the common law, and had fought Britain together. ...
American nationalists sought to counterbalance increasing diversity with a carefully protected common cultural inheritance: New territories were admitted as American states only once they had an English-speaking majority and adopted the common law. The eradication of slavery in the South and polygamy among the Mormons was likewise the result of a common cultural inheritance, descended from English Puritanism, which Americans insisted on maintaining even at the price of coercion. It was not until after World War II that these core institutions at the heart of classical American nationalism — Biblical religion, the Anglo-American legal inheritance, and the English language — began to fade.
Little-reported story about 2016 election survey found 38% of whites expressed strong feelings of white solidarity
The survey included 3,038 non-Hispanic white respondents. Among these respondents, only a minority expressed high values on any of the above questions: about 28% expressed strong feelings of white identity; about 38% expressed strong feelings of white solidarity; and about 27% felt that whites suffer a meaningful amount of discrimination in American life. A much smaller minority, about 6% of respondents, expressed all three opinions. It is worth noting that a 2017Washington Post-ABC News poll estimated that about 10% of respondents supported the Alt-Right.
In other words, the alt-right has a lot of work to do if it's going to convince the other 62% of whites to embrace their white identity.
On the other hand, the civilian non institutional white population in 2016 averaged 198.215 million people, 38% of which is 75.3 million "white aware" Americans.
In other words, the alt-right has a lot of work to do if it's going to convince the other 62% of whites to embrace their white identity.
On the other hand, the civilian non institutional white population in 2016 averaged 198.215 million people, 38% of which is 75.3 million "white aware" Americans.
From the Jews behaving badly file: Donna Zuckerberg recommends red pillers be quarantined online
That's right, put 'em in a ghetto, you know, like in Warsaw.
The sister of Mark Zuckerberg, discussed here, who doesn't "write classics" anymore than any other person does with one academic degree or another involving ancient Greece and Rome:
The classics writer said that while online anonymity allows people to spread hatred without facing repercussions, all online networks can strengthen misogynistic communities, simply by allowing more red pill members to reach each other. She suggested that misogynist groups could be quarantined, as one of Reddit’s red pill groups recently was.
Update to Cantrell Funeral Home scandal in Detroit: More than 370 bodies found dating back to 1996
Hoo wee, this story stinks.
[A]shes of more than 370 bodies, nearly two dozen of which appear to be military veterans, ... were abandoned at Cantrell in the spring. ...
A new owner, who purchased the building about a month ago, said the interior smelled horrible. The owner had removed four dumpsters of garbage as he started renovating the space to turn it into a community center. ...
[Brian] Joseph [the owner of Verheyden Funeral Homes in Grosse Pointe Park], who arrived at Cantrell even before the state investigators, was let in by the owner.
The state contacted Joseph, [Joseph] said, because in the spring, as Cantrell's financial and regulatory problems became evident, he had offered to help the operator, Raymond Cantrell II, who had inherited the business after his father died in 2016.
Cantrell then asked Joseph to honor more than 500 of his pre-arranged funeral contracts.
The money paid on the contracts is held by a third party and Joseph said he does not profit from them. He agreed, he said, because Cantrell's father had been a contemporary of the former owner of his funeral home, and he believes that he has a duty to help others in need.
In April, the state suspended Cantrell's license, citing "deplorable, unsanitary conditions." Among the problems authorities found were six decomposing bodies — three men, two women and a male fetus — in the funeral home.
Again, to help, Joseph quietly arranged for the bodies to be buried during the summer at Mount Olivet, which donated space and services. Santieu Vaults in Livonia donated the burial vaults which protect bodies while in the ground.
Joseph is now trying to help identify the hundreds of containers holding cremated remains, some of which appear to go back to 1996. Many of the remains have names with the date the person died, Joseph said, but finding relatives and loved ones is a challenge. ...
"It's a horrible situation," said John Desmond of A.J. Desmond & Sons Funeral Directors, summing up the problems with remains that were hidden and left behind. "This is the most egregious behavior that I have ever heard of in my 50 years of being licensed in the state of Michigan."
Lesson of the Florida "bomber": They don't "x-ray" the mail at any point in the system to keep bombs out
Rush Limbaugh confidently misinformed millions of his listeners this week that the USPS scans suspicious packages in order to intercept them and keep them away from the public.
For his part, radio personality Michael Savage laughably spent most of the week wondering how all these "bombs" could be "hand-delivered" all over the place supposedly without entering the postal system, because he believed fake news to that effect. It must have been a conspiracy! The van was too clean after all that driving up and down the east coast and to California and back! The stickers on the windows were too recently affixed because they weren't yet faded!
What we learned once again, however, was that the USPS only isolates suspicious packages for scanning by outside authorities. The cost of installing such scanners in every postal sorting facility would cost billions of dollars the already bankrupt USPS doesn't have. In this instance, the USPS was alerted to the package M/O by the outside authorities after the fact, after some of the "bombs" had already been delivered. The USPS was told what to look for, not the other way around.
This affair exposes the fact that the entire USPS system remains vulnerable to penetration by serious terrorists at any time, and that a person who really intended to harm others, say with bombs, could do so as long as the intended target isn't too famous. That's why the more serious threats are the poisoners, who can still reach their intended famous targets occasionally with letters, such as Vanessa Trump. The contents of mail are not "scanned", only the fronts and backs are imaged and the images stored. That's how the authorities, once alerted to the problem in Florida, "were reviewing mail streams in and out of Florida, attempting to pinpoint locations where the parcels may have originated", as reported in the USA Today story linked below.
A real bomber in this instance would have rigged his packages to blow up as they are opened by the designated target, as when a box lid lifted on its hinge triggers a circuit with a detonator. Of course, the difficulty of getting such a package into the actual hands of famous persons with staff protecting them from such an eventuality is a thought which cannot have escaped the mind of Cesar Sayoc.
A real bomber does not stuff active devices into padded envelope mailers as Sayoc did, where they could blow-up indiscriminately under normal, rough handling, including in his own hands. A real bomber does not leave finger prints behind on his mail bombs, especially if his fingerprints are already in the crime reporting system due to many prior arrests and convictions.
It's almost as if poor Cesar Sayoc, aged 56, suddenly homeless and forced to live in his van, intended to get caught so that he could finally escape all his problems and finally get a roof over his head and three square meals a day for the rest of his life after so many years of struggling with poverty.
CNN reported here:
Bomb suspect Cesar Sayoc had been kicked out by his parents, so he has living in the van that we have seen in pictures today, according to a law enforcement official. ... Sayoc was initially somewhat cooperative, the official said. He told investigators that the pipe bombs wouldn’t have hurt anyone and that he didn’t want to hurt anyone.
USA Today reports here:
The total number of bombs reached at least 14 Friday after more suspicious packages were recovered: one in Florida addressed to New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker, another in New York addressed to former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper, a device recovered at Sen. Kamala Harris’ office in Sacramento, California, and another package that was intercepted at a mail facility in Burlingame, California, addressed to billionaire Tom Steyer.
Harris’ office says it was informed that the package was identified at a Sacramento mail facility. The FBI responded to the facility in a South Sacramento neighborhood that’s been blocked off by caution tape.
A package addressed to Clapper was recovered at a Manhattan postal facility. Like some of the previous packages, the one found in New York City on Friday had the office of Florida Democratic Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz as the return address, a photo obtained by CBS News showed. ...
The suspicious package intended for Clapper was spotted by a postal worker at the Radio City Station facility at around 8:15 a.m. The employee contacted U.S. Postal Inspection Service, and they contacted the NYPD and FBI.
NYPD Bomb Squad officers scanned the package and saw what appeared to be a pipe bomb, NYPD Deputy Commissioner for Intelligence and Counterterrorism John Miller said at a Manhattan news conference.
The latest poll in IL-6 flips the seat from red to blue by +2
That changes the electoral math from 219-211-5 to 220-210-5, putting the Democrats in control of the US House by a slim majority of three if the election were held today and the voters voted exactly in sync with the very latest poll in every Real Clear Politics "toss-up" congressional district.
218 seats are needed for a majority.
UT-4 remains tied in the latest poll there.
Friday, October 26, 2018
NBC joins CNN as enemies of the people, had exculpatory information on Swetnick claims but sat on it to help Democrats defeat Kavanaugh
[T]his makes three times that the network has been reluctant to run important, high-profile reports related to sexual misconduct.
The DOJ goes nuclear on Trump in the delay game on FISA warrants to cover up FBI wrongdoing, hoping Democrats win the US House in November
From the story here:
In court filings last week the Department of Justice deployed what could be the nuclear option in its latest effort to prevent President Trump from declassifying information regarding FISA warrants used to spy on his campaign aide Carter Page: It is claiming that such a move would interfere with Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation.
This is the first time the DOJ has explicitly made this argument implying personal peril for the president, since interference could open Trump to charges of obstruction of justice. Until now, the department has argued that declassifying the documents threatened national security.
In the 178-page court document, DOJ officials said they had “determined that disclosure of redacted information in the Carter Page FISA documents could reasonably be expected to interfere with the pending investigation into Russian election interference."
That rationale has heightened suspicions among congressional investigators that the special counsel is being used to prevent the disclosure of possible FBI abuses and crimes committed during the Russia probe. ...
[S]ources told [Real Clear Investigations] that the president and the DOJ are at a standoff. “Trump knows that what’s in those documents clears him of all the collusion stuff,” said a third congressional source, “and it shows the FBI was doing some very bad things.”
But what’s now keeping Trump from pulling the curtain back on the Russia investigation is the probe itself. “That’s the leverage the DOJ has on Trump,” explained this source. “Nothing on Russia or collusion or anything like that — it’s the actual investigation. If he’s seen to be interfering, they move to obstruction.”
NJ-3 tilts back to the Republican by +1 in the latest poll as other toss-up races tighten
The math thus shifts from 220-210-5 back to 219-211-5 with Democrats winning the majority by just 2 seats.
Meanwhile CA-10 has tightened from D+5 to D+2.
NY-22 has tightened from D+2 to D+1.
TX-7 has tightened from R+3 to R+1.
What better way for Antifa to discredit the right than by sending "bombs" to prominent Democrats?
Democrats (especially the neoliberal establishment standing in Bernie's way) are Antifa's enemies as much as are Republicans, who together all represent "the system" which these anarchists insist must be overthrown, including Bernie who is an anachronistic nationalist.
Thursday, October 25, 2018
Latest poll in NJ-3 flips seat to D+2 from R+2
That changes the latest US House math from 219-211-5 in favor of the Democrats to 220-210-5, based solely on the latest poll in each of the 31 toss-up races.
Obama takes credit for the upcoming recession
"So when you hear all this talk about economic miracles right now, remember who started it," he said to thunderous applause and a standing ovation.
National Review commenter: "American politics is a varitable buffet of stupidity at the moment"
I'd say so, verily verily.
Latest poll tips FL-26 to the Democrat by +1, was previously Republican by +1
That takes the math to Democrats winning the majority 219-211 with 5 seats tied based on the latest poll in each of the 31 toss-ups.
Of the 31 current toss-ups, 10 races are +1 either way and 5 are tied, making 48% of the toss-up races just that close.
Of the 10 races +1, they are evenly split Democrat and Republican.
Polling remains out-of-date in 11 races, or 35% of the toss-ups, dating to September. Of those 6 favor the Democrat plus a seventh race is tied. Just four of these 11 races are +1 with one in the Democrat column.
Wednesday, October 24, 2018
Gov. Cuomo, NY's version of Hitler, says he got a bomb too when he didn't, hastily deploys 100 National Guardsmen on streets anyway
We have to restrict freedom in order to preserve it!
Reported by NBC here:
New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo revealed that one of the packages was addressed to him and sent to his office.
"A device has been sent to my office in Manhattan which we were just informed about and that device is being handled," he said.
But shortly afterward, the FBI said that Cuomo's office had not received an explosive device and a Cuomo spokesman said the package contained computer files on the Proud Boys, a far right hate group some of whose members were recently arrested in Manhattan.
Saying he was acting "out of an abundance of caution," Cuomo later dispatched 100 members of the National Guard to beef up the already tight security at key New York City crossings, the airports, and in the subway system.
Remember when ricin was sent to Trump, Mattis, Wray, Haspel, Wilson and Richardson in early October?
You know, to the president, the defense secretary, the FBI director, the CIA director, the secretary of the US Air Force, and the Chief of Naval Operations from that guy in Utah?
Yeah, me either.
Odd how the media just let that pass into oblivion.
Really odd.
Whoever sent the pipe bombs to Democrats was just following Hillary's logic
Hillary 10/9/18: "You cannot be civil with a political party that wants to destroy what you stand for, what you care about.”
Kavanaugh effect evaporates in Rasmussen generic congressional poll, Democrats take 3-point advantage
Democrat 47%
Republican 44%
Other 3%
Undecided 6%
Reported here:
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone and online survey finds that 47% of Likely U.S. Voters would choose the Democratic candidate if the elections for Congress were held today. Forty-four percent (44%) would opt for the Republican. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are undecided.
False flag operations: "Potential" bombs sent to Hillary and Obama after one allegedly sent to Soros yesterday
Right wing violence, right on time for the elections after nearly two years of violence from the left!
Anthony Weiner probably sent them from the penitentiary in exchange for early release.
The Chicoms are the new Nazis and it's high time experts stopped using euphemisms for it like "authoritarian capitalism"
Like Brahma Chellaney, here:
China still gets a free pass on human-rights abuses, from holding up to a million Muslims from Xinjiang province in internment camps to effectively kidnapping Interpol President Meng Hongwei. And, despite his assertions that the Obama administration's response to China’s activities in the South China Sea was “impotent,” Trump has done little to counter Chinese expansionism. ...
China is already challenging the US for technological and geopolitical primacy, and flaunting its authoritarian capitalism as an alternative to democracy. Communism couldn’t pose a credible challenge to liberal democracy, but authoritarian capitalism might. In that sense, China’s model represents the first major challenge to liberal democracy since the rise of Nazism.
MN-1 moves into Toss-up, Democrat polls +2
That makes the math 218-212-5, with a majority for the Democrats, based on the latest poll in the toss-up races.
Latest polling tips NM-2 Republican +1, taking away Democrats' 218 majority
The math this morning is now Democrats 217, Republicans 213, Tied 5 based on the latest poll in each toss-up race for the US House.
Tuesday, October 23, 2018
US House Election Snapshot for Tuesday 10/23/18: Democrats win control with 218
Real Clear Politics has the race at 205 Democrat to 200 Republican with 30 toss-ups.
Based on the latest polling date in each of the toss-ups, Democrats pick-up 13 and Republicans pick up 12 with 5 more races officially tied.
Democrats win control 218-212-5.
14 contests have severely out-of-date polling, however, 13 from September and 1 from August. 16 contests have the latest poll taken sometime in October.
Republicans own the October polling: Republican 8, Democrat 4, Tied 4. The average lead for Republicans is +3.375 and for Democrats is +4.25.
Democrats own the out-of-date polling, throwing cold water on their projected win: Democrat 9, Republican 4, Tied 1.
The average lead in Democrat polling overall is +3.3 and in Republican is +2.75.
Bradley Manning finally goes all the way and gets a chopadickoffamy as Trump sides with chromosomes
The Trump administration is moving forward with efforts to define gender on the basis of biological sex, reversing decisions under the Obama administration that essentially allowed individuals to choose their own sex for federal government purposes. A new memo from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services argues federal agencies need a definition of sex and gender that is defined “on a biological basis that is clear, grounded in science, objective and administrable.”
The changes are to take place under Title IX section of a 1972 law that bars sex-based discrimination in federally funded education institutions, but could have far broader implications, in areas such as single sex settings and set aside programs. ...
The fact of the matter is that while academics and activists have been running around willy nilly changing the definition of sex and inventing 72 (at least) new pronouns, none of this has been rooted in any kind of confirmable science. It is farcical to think that the state can somehow keep up with such changes or pursue policies regarding sex without a workable and consistent definition.
Piers Morgan: Trump is kicking Democrats' ass
Piers Morgan, here:
According to the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, Trump is now at 47% approval, compared to Obama’s 45% two weeks before the midterm elections in 2010. ...
And I see a President who’s growing stronger by the day.
Trump’s become a political Godzilla, crushing everyone who dares challenge him and bulldozing his way through an agenda that is beginning to pay real dividends.
In less than two years, Trump’s got two nominees onto the Supreme Court, entrenching a Conservative majority.
He’s slashed taxes, and regulations – sparking a boom in the US economy that shows no sign of stopping, a surge in jobs and record low unemployment.
Trump’s forged a peaceful dialogue with North Korea, launched a trade war with China that many think is long overdue, withdrawn from the obviously flawed Iran nuclear deal and Trans-Pacific Partnership, forced Mexico and Canada to update NAFTA, bullied NATO countries into paying their bills, and bombed ISIS out of Iraq and Syria.
He’s also clamped down hard on illegal immigration.
As I write this, a ‘caravan’ of more than 7,000 Central American migrants – most of them from Honduras - is moving towards the Southern border.
They intend trying to enter the United States illegally.
It’s hard to think of a more powerful image to vindicate Trump’s much criticized demand for a new ‘Wall’, isn’t it?
Monday, October 22, 2018
Politico co-founder and so-called journalist John Harris should suspend and fire himself
From the story here:
Both VandeHei and Harris are familiar with how severe the repercussions for opinionated tweets can be. In 2012, when they were running Politico together, the organization suspended and then fired a reporter because of remarks he had made on television and Twitter, including one remark suggesting that Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney was only comfortable around white people.
In the memo announcing the journalist's suspension, Harris and VandeHei reminded staff that all journalists had a "clear and inflexible responsibility to cover politics fairly and free of partisan bias."
Laugh of the Day: Christian Science Monitor suggests "alien invasion" could unite Americans, or "climate change"
Talk about being out of touch.
The latest invasion is on the way from Honduras as we speak and the last thing I expect to see is Democrats and Republicans unite to stop it.
Instead Democrats intend to welcome the invasion with open arms.
Here:
The parties could also unite to solve an overarching national goal. The problem here is, what? Absent an alien invasion requiring Americans to pull together, what goal would suffice? Some experts suggest climate change, but that would require Republicans to change position and favor more active intervention on the issue.
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