Friday, July 5, 2019
There is no jobs boom but you'd never know it from the headlines
Are all these stories written by twenty-somethings? They are an offense to anyone with a knowledge of history:
"US adds robust 224,000 jobs in June" -- ABC
"Strong hiring in June: 224,000 new jobs, 3.7% unemployment" -- CBS
"Big month for jobs, big headache for Fed Chair Powell" -- NBC
"U.S. adds 224,000 jobs as hiring rebounds in June, calming worries about the economy" -- MarketWatch
"US labour market booms in June" -- BBC
"The US labor market rebounds in June, adding far more jobs than expected" -- Business Insider
"Jobs report smashes expectations" -- AOL
"Labor market comes roaring back as jobs see 'nice pop', economists say" -- MarketWatch
Meanwhile, the facts.
Trump has yet to put numbers on the board which distinguish payrolls as robust, strong, big, calming, booming, rebounding, smashing or roaring.
For roaring you have to look back to Reagan and Clinton. Trump is not in their league. So far he's not even as good as Obama for putting up big months (granted, over eight years), and is merely one term president Bush 41-league, the best comparison for comparable time in office. It ain't over 'til it's over, but 30 months in Trump has just two big months to his name, that's it, and the clock is ticking on the longest, but nowhere near best, economic expansion in history.
On a net population-adjusted basis there are as of 2018 5.2 million more Americans 16 to 64 years of age not in the labor force who used to be in it since low levels reached for respective age groups in 1989, 1995 and 1997, including one million fewer not in labor force age 25-54 since 1989. There are 2.8 million more 16-24 not in labor force in 2018 than in 1995 on a population adjusted basis, and 3.4 million more age 55-64 since 1997.
5.2 million people actually sitting on the sidelines added to payrolls in a real jobs boom would boost current monthly levels by 108,333 on an average basis over 4 years, in other words, well above 300,000 monthly.
The fools at CNBC write the dumbest headlines about jobs
"Strong job growth is back: Payrolls jump in June well above expectations"
The Civilian Employment Level is cyclical. It routinely bottoms in January and peaks in the summer with the cycle of seasonal part-time and full-time, the latter peaking in the summer months when millions of new graduates from high school and college get their first jobs.
So it is completely natural to have higher expectations for good jobs numbers in the summer, especially after four months of poorer performance than 224,000 Total Nonfarm Payrolls.
But if we were really having a jobs boom, "strong job growth", it would look like this, not like Trump's record so far with just two months out of thirty above 300,000:
Nine years after bottoming at 47% of population, full-time jobs still run millions behind
In the first half of 2019, full-time has recovered to 50% of population, still well below the previous average cycle high of 51.1%.
In the past full-time has recovered to 50% of population and above after just four years. We are in the ninth year and could easily have 2.7 million more working full-time in the first half of 2019 than we do presently at 50%.
It would take an extra 100,000 full-time jobs a month for another two-plus years straight to make up that difference, which just shows how pathetic it is that people routinely consider current job additions just north of 200,000 a month "strong".
Meanwhile population growth marches on, but those people are not being put to work.
Why continue to import immigrants then?
Why?
Our country is INSANE, doing the same thing over and over again expecting different results.
Libertarianism kills: Boeing outsourced 737 Max software to $9/hour programmers from India to save money
It remains the mystery at the heart of Boeing Co.’s 737 Max crisis: how a company renowned for meticulous design made seemingly basic software mistakes leading to a pair of deadly crashes. Longtime Boeing engineers say the effort was complicated by a push to outsource work to lower-paid contractors.
The Max software -- plagued by issues that could keep the planes grounded months longer after U.S. regulators this week revealed a new flaw -- was developed at a time Boeing was laying off experienced engineers and pressing suppliers to cut costs.
Increasingly, the iconic American planemaker and its subcontractors have relied on temporary workers making as little as $9 an hour to develop and test software, often from countries lacking a deep background in aerospace -- notably India. ...
“Boeing was doing all kinds of things, everything you can imagine, to reduce cost, including moving work from Puget Sound, because we’d become very expensive here,” said Rick Ludtke, a former Boeing flight controls engineer laid off in 2017. “All that’s very understandable if you think of it from a business perspective. Slowly over time it appears that’s eroded the ability for Puget Sound designers to design.”
Rabin, the former software engineer, recalled one manager saying at an all-hands meeting that Boeing didn’t need senior engineers because its products were mature. “I was shocked that in a room full of a couple hundred mostly senior engineers we were being told that we weren’t needed,” said Rabin, who was laid off in 2015.
Thursday, July 4, 2019
Scenes from Bush 41's fascist military takeover of Washington DC in June 1991
Gulf War 1991 National Victory Celebration
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ICYMI Democrat Eric Swalwell is a complete moron
Who posts a poll like this showing yourself to be completely out of step with the voters on your signature issue? Have you no peeps, man?
This ding dong is tied for 20th in the Democrat race for president, for crying out loud.
Kamala Harris tripled down on mandatory busing against Joe Biden, now backs down
Now it's just an option.
On July 4th, 2019 MI-3 is finally free, Justin Amash leaves the GOP
Justin Amash is so partisan he is literally a party of one.
Wednesday, July 3, 2019
The US representatives for sex fiend Bill Clinton and the garish hat industry, both from Florida, want us thrown in jail for mocking them
Come and get me you dried up ugly frauds.
Grand Rapids, Michigan, Climate Update for June 2019
Grand Rapids, Michigan, Climate Update for June 2019:
Max temp 89, Mean Max 91
Min temp 40, Mean Min 43
Av temp 66.8, Mean 67.6 (the last week of June erased all but 0.8 degrees of the June deficit)
Precip 4.36, Mean 3.55
Precip to date 22.93 inches, Mean 16.65 inches (Annual Mean 34.60)
Snow season officially ended 81.3 inches, Mean 66.8 inches (26th snowiest on record)
Heating degree days season officially ended 6722, Mean 6705 (utterly normal)
Cooling degree days season to date 117, Mean to date 184 (36% cooler to date than normal)
Like much of the country, we've been soggy:
Tuesday, July 2, 2019
Welcome to the 30th anniversary of the failed prediction of nations wiped from the face of the earth by global warming
Trip Advisor says I can book a round trip ticket to the Maldives today for $5,602, nineteen years after it was supposed to be underwater with no place left to land.
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