Tuesday, February 6, 2018
Sunday, February 4, 2018
YOUR average hourly earnings are NOT up 2.9% as widely reported, for example by Larry Kudlow this weekend
Yes, average hourly earnings of TOTAL PRIVATE, seasonally adjusted, is up 2.9% year over year in January 2018.
Well, whoop dee do. Not seasonally adjusted it's up only 2.2%.
What to believe?
Average hourly earnings of TOTAL PRIVATE reports as much of the total universe of earnings as possible, but that's not the universe of 80% of American workers. It includes everybody, including the higher rollers in the top 20% whose big increases can skew the reported number dramatically.
80% of American workers inhabit the world of production and nonsupervisory workers, whose average hourly earnings have always been tracked by the government going back to 1964.
Seasonally adjusted those earnings are up 2.4% year over year in January, but not seasonally adjusted BARELY 2%, a below average figure for the measure which is in keeping with what's been going on since 2008.
The little guy in this country has been getting crumbs from the masters' tables since 2008 when the routine increases averaging 3.4% before that went away. The new era averages a gain of 2.2% year over year, a cut of 35%.
The biggest gain in recent memory was 2.8% for January 2017, meaning most workers got their best increases since 2008 in 2016, not in 2017, and the 2% gain for 2017 means . . . THIS IS NOT A BOOM.
When the average worker starts getting ROUTINE year over year increases above 3% you'll know things are better.
They aren't.
Saturday, February 3, 2018
The Nunes memo simply shows what we've all known for years: The Swamp is evil, yes, but more importantly incompetent
If the entire intelligence community, including the head of the FBI, can conspire with the Democrat Party and the Russians to try to keep Trump from being elected AND FAIL, you just gotta say . . .
Way to go, Brownie!
Rush Limbaugh's "Not Working But Still Eating" soars to new record in January 2018: 96.7 million
Some economic boom, huh.
Friday, February 2, 2018
Rep. Lee Zeldin uses Twitter very effectively to summarize the meaning of the so-called Nunes memo
NY-1 has a good one here. Everything you need to know in about seven short lines.
According to Trump's own government, he's either destroyed 72,000 jobs a month since his election or created 182,000 per month, take your pick
And if it's +182,000 per month, that's not a jobs boom.
A jobs boom would average well north of 200,000. Even the most recent three month average is south of that, at 192,000 per month.
Year over year in January total nonfarm is increasing at best by 176,000 per month, or 2.1 million a year, not the 2.4 million Trump claimed in his SOTU message.
Lies, damned lies, and statistics. But these are Trump's, both the lies and the reality.
Thursday, February 1, 2018
Grand Rapids, Michigan, Climate Update For January 2018
Grand Rapids, Michigan, Climate Update for January 2018
Max temp 58, Mean Max temp 48
Min temp -11, Mean Min temp -3
Av temp 24.9, Mean Av temp 23.7
Precip 2.12, Mean precip 2.05
Snowfall 12.6, Mean snowfall 18.5
Snowfall season to date 46.1, Mean Snowfall season to date 41.4
Heating Degree Days 1235, Mean Heating Degree Days 1271
HDD Season to date 3678, HDD Mean Season to date 3759
It takes a cuck to make a cuck: Another president betrays his supporters
Here:
The first pillar of our framework generously offers a path to citizenship for 1.8 million illegal immigrants who were brought here by their parents at a young age — that covers almost three times more people than the previous administration. Under our plan, those who meet education and work requirements, and show good moral character, will be able to become full citizens of the United States.
Wednesday, January 31, 2018
Sorry, Trump didn't create 2.4 million jobs "since his election", and even if he did, that sucks
Total nonfarm, not seasonally adjusted, stood at 146.393 million in November 2016. In December 2017 the level was 148.346 million, an increase of 1.95 million.
Seasonally adjusted, the increase went from 145.170 million to 147.380 million, an increase of 2.21 million.
The former figure is 150,000 per month (13 months), the latter 170,000 per month. Meanwhile Trump is claiming 184,462 per month.
These are terrible numbers, including Trump's, which however also appear to be cooked on a bonfire.
In a booming economy, monthly increases well above 200,000 are indicated. That's what we got under Reagan and Clinton, but not now, not by a long shot.
Turn away from these Establishment Survey numbers and consider the Household Survey figures and the picture looks even worse.
Not seasonally adjusted the sum of usually full-time and usually part-time is up just 1.216 million in 13 months. This has been seasonally adjusted up to barely 1.9 million. We're talking 93,500 per month to 146,000 per month, quite the spread. Not exactly confidence inspiring numbers.
The truth is that employment gains have gone soft in 2017 compared with 2016, down about 15%. In the 13 months up to November 2016, total nonfarm jobs seasonally adjusted increased at a monthly pace of not quite 200,000 which was nearly 18% better than under Trump so far.
Trump better hope hiring picks up soon, or this charade will quickly be seen for what it is, all hat and no saddle.
Still waiting for the boom.
Memo to Trump: We need jobs before paid medical leave from them
Compared to twenty years ago, total employed in this country as a percentage of population is lagging by 2 million.
Maybe the president ought to think about remedying that first. What good is paid medical leave from a job I don't have?
This is what you get when the daughter has the president's ear instead of the voters.
Tuesday, January 30, 2018
Call me crazy, but did it cross your mind that today's stock sell-off might be intentional?
Tonight's Trump's first State of the Union address, after all, at which he's set to crow about the stock market. Could be disgruntled folks just trying to create a bad mood, knowing they'll be back tomorrow to buy a little bit cheaper.
The "all items" CPI is up 2.1% year over year, wages 2.5%
Now don't go blow all the 0.4 points all in one place.
CNBC says "Paul Ryan sees 'no reason' for Trump to fire Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein"
You remember Paul Ryan, Mitt Romney's running mate.
Mitt Romney saw no reason to light his hair on fire about anything, including Obamacare.
Paul Ryan ditto (especially when he's got that whole Eddie Munster thing going on).
We've had facts vs. alternative facts, but now Nancy Pelosi introduces "classified facts"
Which, since we're never going to be allowed to see them, mean only some people have the true but secret knowledge, right?
So we're supposed to just trust authority, you know, like her.
Nancy Pelosi is Exhibit A for the enemy in The Open Society and Its Enemies, but there are twenty-five more letters in the alphabet, and hardly enough.
Pelosi, quoted here:
"What they're putting forth is a total misrepresentation. It is false," Pelosi told CNN's Chris Cuomo. "In order to refute it, you'd have to tell the facts, and the facts are classified."
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