Thursday, November 3, 2016

As polls tighten Trump campaign has been proven right about PA but should focus on CO, NH and VA instead of MI, WI and NM

Clinton's lead in PA is down to 3.4. That would be a huge coup for Trump.

Clinton's lead in CO is down to 1.7, in NH 3.3 and in VA 4.7. Go for those.

Clinton's lead in MI is 5.7, in WI 5.4, and in NM 8.5. Pretty far out of reach with five days to go.

Trump is still very vulnerable in FL (+0.7), NC (tie), ME-2 (Clinton +0.7), OH (+3.3) and IA (+1.4), as he is in AZ and NV where he has improved to +3 and +2 respectively.

Ross Douthat pretends that Hillary Clinton does not represent chaos and misrule


Go to hell, Ross.

Wednesday, November 2, 2016

Like I said, Trump should concentrate on Virginia, not Wisconsin or Michigan: Real Clear Politics just moved Virginia to "Toss-up" this morning

Virginia now favors Clinton by only +4.7.

Michigan is now Clinton +7.

Wisconsin is Clinton +5.7.

Trump is wasting his time in Michigan and Wisconsin.

Tuesday, November 1, 2016

Trump is misspending some of his $25 million ad blitz: In Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and New Mexico in particular

Trump needs instead to spend money to retake NV, AZ, CO and NC from Hillary where she leads narrowly and shore up IA, OH, GA and FL where Trump leads narrowly.

He's NOT going to retake WI (Clinton +5.7), Michigan (Clinton +6.7), Pennsylvania (Clinton +6), or New Mexico (Clinton +8.5).

Dumb.

Story here.

Drudge is an idiot for calling Wisconsin a battleground based on a WaPo story which is trying to divert Trump's energies

Wisconsin is a distraction. Trump isn't going to win it, and Drudge is a fool for taking the bait and headlining this WaPo story:


Trump is losing Wisconsin to Clinton at this hour by 5.7 points because of #NeverTrump libertarians who follow radio talker Charlie Sykes. That guy's never been on Trump's side and never will be. Wisconsin "conservatives" follow a ridiculous Speaker Paul Ryan who thinks preserving Medicare for future generations is a conservative thing. That's Ripon Society Republicanism, Teddy Roosevelt progressivism.

Libertarian Gary Johnson is polling 6.3 there, way above his current national average of 4.6, accounting for all of Clinton's margin of victory.

Trump shouldn't waste any more time or resources on Wisconsin.

He'd have been far better off trying for Virginia where he is polling better than in Wisconsin, but it's too late for that, too.

Trump's path to the presidency (164 Electoral College votes currently) is through NV, AZ, CO, IA, OH, NC, GA and FL (110).

He might want to visit NH and ME-2 also if he has the resources, but the main battle is in the eight states shown. 

Hillary's campaign chairman John Podesta conspiring with Cheryl Mills to destroy e-mail evidence



If Republicans had any brains they'd be pointing out that GDP is running $2 trillion behind Bush and employment 6 million

But no, they have their heads up their ass because Trump talked about grabbing pussy.

Which proves that Republicans don't care about the economy and the middle class, only about their privileges under the establishment.

Which is why they hate Trump, because he does care. 

Mark Levin waits until one week before Election 2016 to state that Donald Trump is more conservative than both John McCain and Mitt Romney on a host of issues

What a piece of shit Levin is.

At the end of the first half hour, tonight.

Trump campaign's travel schedule since 10/25/16 is hit and miss

Made/makes sense to visit:

NV (Clinton +1.0), 10-30
AZ (Clinton +0.6), 10-29, 11-2
CO (Clinton +4.0), 10-29, 10-30, 11-2
OH (Trump +2.5), 10-27
NC (Clinton +2.6), 10-26, 11-3
FL (Trump +1.0), 11-2, 11-3

No visits:

IA (Trump +1.4)
ME-2 (Clinton +2.0)
GA (Trump +3.6)

Made/makes no sense to visit:

PA (Clinton +6.0), 11-1, 11-3
MI (Clinton +6.7), 10-31
WI (Clinton +5.7), 11-1
NM (Clinton +8.5), 10-30, 11-2

Trump's path to victory is a surge in NV, AZ, CO, and NC, not MI

Trump's path to victory does not run through MI. Trump is wasting time and resources here.

With 233 Electoral College votes more or less in the bank as of today, the path to victory runs through NV, AZ, CO and NC instead.

He can overcome Hillary's +1 in NV, Hillary's +0.6 in AZ, Hillary's +4.0 in CO, and Hillary's +2.6 in NC. If he does he can win 274-264.

Trying to overcome Hillary's +6.7 in MI is a fool's errand.

Instead he ought to be trying to keep IA, where his lead is just +1.4, OH, where his lead is just +2.5, GA, where his lead is just +3.6, and FL, where his lead is just +1.0.

Whoever let Trump come to MI yesterday is a fool.

But it was probably Trump himself.


With one week until Election 2016, America is about to elect a crook, Hillary Clinton, president with 305 Electoral College votes

The Real Clear Politics map at this hour shows Clinton with 263 Electoral College votes in her column, Trump with 164, and 111 Toss-Ups.

NH, PA, VA, MI, WI, MN, NM and OR lean Clinton by an average of 6.55 points and are included in her total of 263.

IN, MO, TX and UT lean Trump by an average of 6.5 points and are included in his total of 164.

Based solely on the polling in the Toss-Ups, Clinton is set to win NV, AZ, CO, ME-2 and NC, giving her a total of 305, 35 more than the 270 she needs to win. Her average lead in the polls in these 5 is just 2.04 points.

Trump is set to win IA, OH, GA and FL, giving him a total of 233, 37 fewer than the 270 he needs to win. His average lead in the polls in these 4 is 2.13 points.

Clinton's margin nationally has fallen to +2.2 over Trump. Libertarian Johnson averages 4.6 points and Green Party Stein 2.1 points.


Bill Kristol wants Trump to take another pledge

Here.

The commenters want Bill to pledge to STFU.

Hillary is creaming Trump on the radio with 15 times as many ads in the last ten days of October

Inside Radio reports here:

In terms of actual spot numbers, that’s 18,791 for the Democratic candidate and just 1,245 ads for the Republican nominee. The study covers 85 markets across the country.

Through October 28 Hillary has outspent Trump on TV and radio 2.75 to 1

From Advertising Age's 37th installment on campaign spending to date:

But for now Sec. Clinton and pro-Clinton PACs are miles ahead of Mr. Trump and pro-Trump PACs in the TV-and-radio ad game. The tally right now (including primary season and the general election): $436.4 million spent by Clinton and her allies vs. $158.5 million spent by Trump and his allies -- $594.9 million in all.

Through mid-September Clinton had outspent Trump on television 5.85 to 1

Reported here:

According to a Bloomberg analysis, through Sept. 13, Clinton had spent $109.4 million on TV ads, compared to $18.7 million for Trump. Clinton hit the airwaves two months sooner than Trump. 

Steve Gruber was a boor to Nicole Gelinas this morning

They had an argument over Gelinas' thesis that Trump's fiscal policies are stimulative like Obama's and will dramatically widen deficits without spending cuts.

When Gruber gave her the last 20 seconds he talked over her response instead.

Bad form old boy.

Monday, October 31, 2016

Trump hasn't yet run one radio ad in my market in Michigan

I listen to talk radio pretty much non-stop during the election season, and here in western Michigan Trump actually visited today for the first time in a month but I haven't heard one ad on the radio this week for Trump, let alone one ad on the radio in any other week in the last 30 days.

He's not going to win Michigan that way. Not without the western counties that all went for Ted Cruz. By eschewing the radio waves here Trump shows me he's not serious about winning Michigan. He keeps asking for money, but never seems to spend it on the one thing which could spread the enthusiasm present at his rallies to the older Republican base.

I think Trump will lose Michigan and simply wasted his time coming here today, mistakenly continuing to practice what's been appropriate to the primary strategy when the general election requires something more.

Clinton's Real Clear Politics polling average tonight in Michigan is +6.3.

Wikileaks show CNN's Donna Brazile disclosed debate questions to Hillary, force her to resign effective October 14th

Reported here.

John Kass asks, Is the country more important to Democrats than power?


The best thing would be for Democrats to ask her to step down now. It would be the most responsible thing to do, if the nation were more important to them than power. And the American news media — fairly or not firmly identified in the public mind as Mrs. Clinton's political action committee — should begin demanding it.

Oh look, a deer: NY Times' Nicholas Kristof tries to change the subject from Hillary's scandals to poverty


OK, let's talk about it.

Poverty under Democrats Obama, Biden, Pelosi, Reid, Hillary and Boltneck is up 23%.

Now back to the nefarious reasons not to vote for Hillary.