Saturday, May 21, 2022
Friday, May 20, 2022
That would be 113th Mr. Drudge, sir, you ignoramus
World's oldest man to throw 113rd birthday party!
And look what that links to:
https://www.the-sun.com/news/5384415/elon-musk-gulfstream-g650er-private-jet-flight-attendant/
Friday night at The Drugged Report.
US COVID-19 deaths cross the 1 million mark in the New York Times data Thursday, May 19, 2022
2020 (306 days): 1131
2021: 1310
2022 (thru 5/19): 1264
First 19 days in May: 421
Apr 2022: 426
Mar 2022: 980
Feb 2022: 2247
Jan 2022: 1987
Deaths per year in this data to date:
2020: 346,050
2021: 478,286
2022 thru 5/19: 175,675
Thursday, May 19, 2022
Bloomberg economic model forecasts 25% tariffs between democratic and autocratic countries would roll back globalization to 1990s levels and leave the world 3.5% poorer
Arguably that would be a good thing for American workers, but Bloomberg doesn't care about that.
For three decades, a defining feature of the world economy has been its ability to churn out ever more goods at ever lower prices. The entry of more than a billion workers from China and the former Soviet bloc into the global labor market, coupled with falling trade barriers and hyper-efficient logistics, produced an age of abundance for many.But the last four years have brought an escalating series of disruptions. Tariffs multiplied during the US-China trade war. The pandemic brought lockdowns. And now, sanctions and export controls are upending the supply of commodities and goods.All of this risks leaving advanced economies facing a problem they thought they’d vanquished long ago: that of scarcity. Emerging nations could see more acute threats to energy and food security, like the ones already causing turmoil in countries from Sri Lanka to Peru. And everyone will have to grapple with higher prices.
More.
The story never mentions how those newly introduced extra billion plus workers reduced economic outcomes for the already established middle classes around the world, especially in America where the full time job of the 1990s became a thing of the past.
If I'm repeating myself, I don't care.
Husband: "Chicken wings $34"; Wife LOL: "How many do you get?"
The answer: about 15.
Menu says: "Market price".
But many food costs measured in the PPI have been accelerating faster than the CPI rate. In April, average wholesale food prices in the index jumped 18% from a year earlier, according to government data released May 12. It was the largest 12-month increase in nearly five decades. Eggs surged 220%, butter jumped 51%, fats and oils were up 41%, and flour 40%, the National Restaurant Association said.
Wednesday, May 18, 2022
How low could the S&P 500 possibly fall from the Monday, Jan 3, 2022 closing high of 4,796.56?
Some are calling this a dot-com-like bubble "burst".
Jeremy Grantham thinks a 40% decline is in the offing.
That burst happened gradually, actually, from August 2000 to February 2003, more like an old balloon slowly deflating in the corner of the room under a table months after the party had ended.
On an average basis, the S&P 500 fell from 2471.50 in August 2000 to 1314.31 in February 2003, in March 2022 dollars. That 1157.19 point drop amounted to a drop of 46.82%.
Before climbing to the spectacular heights we know today, the S&P 500 had another appointment with more bad news, unfortunately, in March 2009, achieving an even lower level than February 2003.
In March 2022 dollars, the S&P 500 bottomed in March 2009, again on an average basis, at 1023.36. That was 1448.14 points from 2471.50 in August 2000, a drop of 58.59%.
That was quite a long process, a very
bad, no good, rotten almost a decade for stocks. Real per annum return August
2000 through March 2009 averaged -8.14%.
Many children watched their parents lose everything, including the house.
Those February 2003 and March 2009 type of events must be recognized as within the realm of real possibility even today.
4796.56 minus 46.82% would put the S&P 500 at 2551.
Minus 58.59% . . . 1986.
Not saying it will happen. Not saying it's even probable. Just possible, because it has happened before.
Smart investors are ready for the possible.
The index is down 18.19% from the all-time-high tonight.
This headline was not approved by the global warming police
The incompetents at The Ministry of Truth have been notified.
Tuesday, May 17, 2022
The next war's cannon fodder: Students at Wyoming commencement boo Senator Lummis for saying there are only two sexes
They will be blown to smithereens in the next war by America's future conqueror, or publicly tortured to death by the victors in a gruesome spectacle of mockery.
During the commencement address on Sunday, Lummis said constitutional rights were under attack in the U.S. and “even fundamental scientific truths such as the existence of two sexes, male and female, are subject to challenge these days.”
More.
The ruin of a state is generally preceded by an universal degeneracy of manners, and contempt of religion, which is entirely our case at present.
-- Jonathan Swift
Housing predator Blackstone says housing affordability is comparable to the 2007 housing bubble, but it isn't
Here:
Blackstone’s Joe Zidle calls homes almost as unaffordable as the 2007 peak. Yet, he believes a crash is unlikely due to a major difference: Most owners aren’t using their homes like an ATM.
That's a total smokescreen. Look! Over there! A deer!
Peak unaffordability was actually in 2014, when Blackstone was buying up all the inventory individual homebuyers couldn't afford.
Housing was actually more affordable during the 2007 housing bubble than it is today. The read then was 20.5 but in January 2022 it's more like 17.3, much worse. People who are paying these high prices are nuts. If it all blows up again you can bet firms like Blackstone will be waiting in the wings to acquire bargains you have to sell at a loss.
Meanwhile Blackstone today remains a huge buyer of commercial and multifamily rental real estate, especially student housing:
80 percent of the firm’s real estate holdings are in sectors with shorter-length leases that will allow Blackstone to benefit from rising rents . . ..
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Median household income now buys about 17% of the median sales price of a house, a new low: Joe Biden is the Barack Obama of unaffordable housing, only worse
Housing affordability has never been so bad.
The median sales price in 1Q2022 climbed to $428,700.
Median household income in January 2022 is estimated at $74,099, which buys 17.3% of the median house sold in the United States.
Official annual figures through 2020 are indicated in this chart.
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Monday, May 16, 2022
People who don't care are already slaves
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There is a kind of sluggish resignation, as well as poorness and degeneracy of spirit, in a state of slavery.
-- Joseph Addison
Sunday, May 15, 2022
LOL, obsessive truck tire slasher Juliette Kayyem thinks there's a whole CONVOY of colluders behind the Buffalo shooter
But that lone wolf language fails us in an era when hate and radicalization now serve as a proxy for the collaborative herd, for the co-conspirators and colluders. Gendron wasn’t alone. His mission was effective because he was supported by an apparatus that provided the ideology and means for the hunt. Based on evidence from a manifesto that he reportedly posted Thursday night, Gendron did not perceive himself as being alone: He had his people; they were there for him.
More.
State terror is OK, got it? She's a Harvard man, see, a former Obama official.
LOL, The New York Times is the Hotel California of newspapers
You can sign up for it, but you can never leave.
Essentially, so far, it appears like The New York Times does not let its subscribers cancel their subscription even if they want to given that the producer’s request was “rejected by the system” on two separate occasions.
More.
Kevin Williamson: Biden has done everything wrong on inflation, all at once
For The New York Post, here:
And it is what you get when you combine the wrong monetary policy with the wrong fiscal policy, the wrong trade policy, the wrong regulatory policy, and the wrong energy policy.
Saturday, May 14, 2022
Friday, May 13, 2022
For the money, LOL
Why women file for divorce more than men...
Filing for divorce might be their only choice to secure assets . . .
LOL, back to back stories curated by Drudge say Xi Jinping did not, or did, appear at the Winter Olympic Games, take your pick
Rumours about the state of Xi's health have been swirling for years, with fresh speculation sparked by his unexplained absence from the Beijing Winter Olympics.
When Xi Jinping strode into the Bird's Nest Olympic stadium in the winter, waving and bundled in a black jacket and mask, hundreds of Chinese spectators and performers cheered in what was meant to be the start of a victorious year for their nation's president.
Thursday, May 12, 2022
American real economic growth rates in the 21st century are a catastrophe, down 44% from their 20th century levels 1929-1999
GDPCA, compound annual growth rates
1929-1999: 3.534% (almost 79% better than 1999-2021)
1999-2021: 1.979% (-44.001% from 1929-1999)
1977-1999: 3.263% (65% better than 1999-2021)
It's like someone flipped a switch and went away.
I turn on Clay and Buck out of the blue and get them normalizing gay by interviewing black Republican Rob Smith
It's become a feature of so-called conservatism now, no longer a bug.
COVID-19 in the US in April 2022
COVID-19 in the US in April 2022
Monthly deaths in April were the third lowest since the first wave of the pandemic.
Cases in April meanwhile ticked up slightly, though mass self-testing makes that an increasingly dodgy indicator. Many cases are escaping tabulation.
Deaths per day in 2022 through April (120 days) fell to about 1,400 vs. about 1,131/day in 2020 (306 days) and about 1,310/day in 2021:
Deaths per day in Jan 2022: 2,001
Deaths per day in Feb 2022: 2,247
Deaths per day in Mar 2022: 980
Deaths per day in Apr 2022: 426.
Deaths per day in May 2022 have ticked up to about 497 through the 11th.
The goal is to get this down to 100 deaths per day, to make it more like the flu.
Is China canceling Xi Jinping over Zero Covid Policy?
Backlash against the government’s harsh approach is fueling widespread disgust of China‘s leadership, including Mr. Xi
who has boasted of taking direct control of anti-pandemic measures. An
estimated 330 million Chinese are currently in health-related lockdowns
in some 45 cities since March, even as restrictions on gatherings and
travel in other developed countries are being lifted. ...
The party media organ People’s Daily on May 8 also failed to run one of the usual glowing photos of Mr. Xi on its front page. Instead, only Mr. Li, the premier, and another party leader were mentioned.
Bill Gertz, here.
Wednesday, May 11, 2022
As of May 4 Paul Bedard puts Trump at 55-0 for Election 2022, no endorsements lost
According to an early tabulation of his betting on the 2022 primaries, his endorsed candidates have all won or moved into runoffs.
More.
Democrat Manchin-endorsed Republican Rep. McKinley loses to Trump-endorsed Republican Rep. Mooney in West Virginia redistricting shootout
After redistricting, both members chose to compete in the 2nd District. Trump endorsed Mooney in the race, but the consolidated district, spanning the northern half of the state, includes more areas currently represented by McKinley. But Mooney’s Trump endorsement appeared to overcome McKinley's structural advantage in the district.
More.
Senator Manchin, call your office.
Trump-endorsed Herbster loses in Nebraska
Tuesday's results were an indication of how much voters weighed the allegations against Herbster and turned to Pillen, who is backed by Gov. Pete Ricketts.
More.
Tuesday, May 10, 2022
All Items Consumer Price Index under Jerome Powell isn't capturing inflation like it did under Arthur F. Burns even though they both increased money supply at about the same rate
Currency in Circulation (CURRCIR) under Arthur F. Burns rose at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.64% from Feb 1970 to March 1978. The Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL) rose at a compound annual growth rate of 6.49%.
After four years of Jerome Powell, Feb 2018 to Feb 2022, Currency in Circulation rose at a similar 8.41% CAGR but the CPI only at 3.31% CAGR, almost 50% less than under Burns.
Milton Friedman famously said, “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output.”
Something is rotten in CPI Denmark.
The biggest investing lie of our times: "A host of factors ... has made U.S. equities an attractive place to park money and earn nice returns"
CNBC, here.
S&P 500, average real return per annum, dividends fully reinvested:
August 2000 through April 2022, 21 years, 8 months . . . 4.6%;
The 21 years, 8 months previous to that, December 1978 through August 2000 . . . 12.35%.
At 4.6% it takes about 15.5 years to double your money, at 12.35% just under 6 years, which means under current circumstances you haven't yet doubled your money twice, whereas previously you would have doubled it 3.6 times.
The stellar real returns to the August 2000 top have been cut down since then from 12.35% to 8.41%. How long will it be before they are cut back to 6.44%, the long term real return from January 1871 to December 1978?
The odds are not very long.
Those stellar returns of the second half of the 20th century are an artifact of The Great Depression lows. To achieve them again will require another one.
Safety check, Vern.
If 42% of your wealth comes from the stock market, YOU ARE AN IDIOT and deserve everything that's coming to you
The is-is-ought fallacy in action.
In today’s environment, the notion that the stock market isn’t the economy doesn’t hold up anymore :
“In the last 20 years, we’ve had a financial economy that has grown
significantly,” said Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist for the Americas
at Natixis. “You could have argued a few decades ago that the stock
market was not the economy, and that was very accurate. That is no
longer the case today.” ...
Through the end of 2021, the share of household wealth that comes from directly or indirectly held stocks hit a record 41.9%, more than double where it was 30 years ago, according to data from the Federal Reserve. A host of factors, from the advent of online trading to stock-friendly monetary policy to a lackluster global economy, has made U.S. equities an attractive place to park money and earn nice returns.
Asset allocation is about diversification, and if 42% of your wealth is tied up in stonks, YOU ARE NOT DIVERSIFIED, no matter how diversified is the stock portion of your portfolio.
The Talmud had it right: One third in hand, one third in land, and only one third in business.
Be it then, as Sir Robert says,
that anciently it was usual for men to sell and castrate their children,
Observations, 155. Let it be, that they exposed them; add to it, if you
please, for this is still greater power, that they begat them for their
tables, to fat and eat them: if this proves a right to do so, we may,
by the same argument, justify adultery, incest and sodomy, for there are
examples of these too, both ancient and modern; sins, which I suppose
have their principal aggravation from this, that they cross the main
intention of nature, which willeth the increase of mankind, and the
continuation of the species in the highest perfection, and the
distinction of families, with the security of the marriage bed, as
necessary thereunto.
-- John Locke, First Treatise of Government
42 is not the answer to everything.
Monday, May 9, 2022
America is complicated
In August 1765, Andrew Oliver, Massachusetts administrator of the Stamp Act, had his home and offices ransacked by angry Bostonian members of what became the Sons of Liberty. The British did little to protect him, and he had to compromise because he was outnumbered.
There are laws on the books today prohibiting intimidation of Supreme Court judges, but US federal authorities, controlled by Democrats, are doing little to stop protesters in front of Judge Kavanaugh's house.
Instead of complaining about it, maybe conservatives need to get in their face instead of acting like indignant but effete Loyalists.
It's all about having the numbers, and having the will to act. Otherwise, the law is an ass.
Sunday, May 8, 2022
Remember when Biden said that that stuff happens when protesters followed Senator Sinema into the bathroom while she did her business in the stall?
At least he said that was inappropriate.
But now his administration has taken a worse stance, in regard to protesters who are demonstrating in front of the doxxed addresses of the members of the US Supreme Court.
He hasn't called it inappropriate, and officially the administration won't take a position on where protests should and should not occur.
This is the sort of ugliness which leads people to forgo public service, and the worse public officials who replace them to assemble their own security forces.
Private armies can develop that way, which become a threat to the civilized order.
If you think I'm exaggerating the slippery slope here, imagine the guffaws heard all around when I was a kid when occasional firebrands then predicted there would be widespread public vulgarity, pornography, open homosexuality, gay marriage, anti-white racism, trillions of dollars in public debt, hostility to the police, refusal by the authorities to prosecute crimes, complete politicization of the FBI, CIA, DOJ, yada, yada, yada.
The reason they don't teach history much anymore is they don't want you to know how really far we have fallen.
Otherwise you might do something about it.
And we can't have that, now can we?
Protesters march to homes of Kavanaugh, Roberts...
Activists follow Sinema into bathroom...
The pest in North Korea is becoming more problematic
South Korean defense officials said the missile fired on Saturday appeared to have been launched from an actual submarine, unlike some tested in the past, which were believed to have been fired from underwater platforms. North Korea has only one known submarine capable of launching a ballistic missile, with a single launch tube, but it has been developing a new one with greater capabilities, according to the South Korean military.
More.
A bit of good news from North Carolina
NC cops fatally shoot man who threw Molotov cocktails at precinct...
The incident started around 1:20 p.m. when the unidentified suspect began lighting cars on fire in the police parking lot with the incendiary weapons, officials said at a press conference.
Wackjob AOC has nothing better to do than agitate for removing former NYC Mayor Ed Koch's name from the Queensboro Bridge
Jim Owles LGBT Democratic Club, whose boss, Allen Roskoff, had resentment towards Koch over his handling of the AIDS epidemic, is one of the people working for the name removal. Others include Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Rep. Jamaal Bowman, the news outlet reported.
More.
Saturday, May 7, 2022
More than 90% of abortions are for reasons other than rape, incest, or life of the mother
Just 1% of women obtain an abortion because they became pregnant through rape, and less than 0.5% do so because of incest, according to the Guttmacher Institute.
Seven percent of women cited health concerns for themselves or possible problems affecting the health of the fetus as their most important reason in 2004, about the same as in 1987.
And
you know what "problems affecting the health of the fetus" means. The
7% figure hides a lot of Down Syndrome abortion and the like.
None dare call it eugenics.
Friday, May 6, 2022
49.8% of civilian population had full time jobs in April 2022: Potential room for at least 9.9 million more full time at year 2000 experience
On average in 2022 to date, there were 130.871 million employed full time at average civilian noninstitutional population level of 263.382 million, for 49.7% employed full time on average through April 2022.
Think of all the work we could be doing in this country, but are not.
Thursday, May 5, 2022
Wednesday, May 4, 2022
Markets laugh out loud at The Fed's half point rate increase
Groomers have ever been loathsome
Where a child finds his own parents his perverters, he cannot be so properly born, as damned into the world.
-- Robert South (1634-1716)
Tuesday, May 3, 2022
LOL year over year change to CPI in March was 8.6% but the market is pricing for a funds rate of only 3% by the end of the year
Jeff Cox reports here.
It's not capitalism when you prohibit failure.
Monday, May 2, 2022
Saturday, April 30, 2022
Brother Buchanan recognizes that Putin's "nuclear threat" is implied, not explicit
Are Putin & Co. bluffing with this implied nuclear threat?
More.
What Pat gets wrong is that Putin hasn't threatened to use "tactical atomic weapons". Putin's threats are deliberately ambiguous and not specific. But they are linked to the new tests and deployment of hypersonic delivery systems, which can carry nuclear or conventional warheads. Putin thinks his hypersonic missile is "the most powerful handgun in the world".
Putin is Dirty Harry.
But what's in the gun? 180gr jacketed hollow points or 320gr flat-nose?
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