Some are calling this a dot-com-like bubble "burst".
Jeremy Grantham thinks a 40% decline is in the offing.
That burst happened gradually, actually, from August 2000 to February 2003, more like an old balloon slowly deflating in the corner of the room under a table months after the party had ended.
On an average basis, the S&P 500 fell from 2471.50 in August 2000 to 1314.31 in February 2003, in March 2022 dollars. That 1157.19 point drop amounted to a drop of 46.82%.
Before climbing to the spectacular heights we know today, the S&P 500 had another appointment with more bad news, unfortunately, in March 2009, achieving an even lower level than February 2003.
In March 2022 dollars, the S&P 500 bottomed in March 2009, again on an average basis, at 1023.36. That was 1448.14 points from 2471.50 in August 2000, a drop of 58.59%.
That was quite a long process, a very
bad, no good, rotten almost a decade for stocks. Real per annum return August
2000 through March 2009 averaged -8.14%.
Many children watched their parents lose everything, including the house.
Those February 2003 and March 2009 type of events must be recognized as within the realm of real possibility even today.
4796.56 minus 46.82% would put the S&P 500 at 2551.
Minus 58.59% . . . 1986.
Not saying it will happen. Not saying it's even probable. Just possible, because it has happened before.
Smart investors are ready for the possible.
The index is down 18.19% from the all-time-high tonight.
