Friday, March 27, 2026

Global oil in storage was 8,210 million barrels to start 2026 with consumption at 105 mbpd, meaning a 78-day cushion, analyst says we're moving from absorption phase which began Feb 28 to fragility now

 Brent oil tops $110 again after Chinese ships are turned away from Strait of Hormuz

... “The oil market did not underreact to the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz; it absorbed it,” said Paola Rodriguez-Masiu, chief oil analyst at Rystad Energy.

“For nearly four weeks, markets have shown remarkable resilience … supported by a combination of pre-war surplus, crude-on-water, and policy barrels that provided a temporary buffer and kept prices contained. That phase is now ending,” she said.

According to Rystad, the global system has shifted from “buffered to fragile” after weeks of supply losses and inventory drawdowns, leaving little room to absorb further shocks.

Nearly 17.8 million barrels per day of oil and fuel flows through the Strait of Hormuz have been disrupted, the firm estimated, with close to 500 million barrels of total liquids lost so far.