Stocks were down across the board, with the NASD 100 notably down 4.77%. The equal weight S&P 500 is down 0.52% month to date.
The Tech sector was down the most on the day, 5.78%.
The Consumer Staples sector was up the most on the day, 1.64%, which looks defensive against a possible coming recession. The Utilities sector was up half that.
The U.S. 10Y yield rose to 4.55%, and the 20Y and 30Y yields rose above 5.00. YTD return for VUSUX is now down 0.85%.
Oil retreated 3%.
Metals were down across the board, silver down over 8%.
Crypto was down across the board, too, with Bitcoin falling below $60k.
But DXY climbed! +0.658 to 100.071.
The theory is investors are upset that today's "strong" jobs numbers (the 70k hospitality hires is probably World Cup related, a one off, so forget that) indicate easy money from the Fed is now absolutely out of the question, and maybe even a rate increase is coming because the economy is running too hot, which is silly with 1Q GDP at 1.6% annualized. CNBC called that "solid" lol.
Jokers say everyone's just raising cash to buy overpriced SpaceX in its IPO next week.
... Oil and product exports through the Bab el-Mandeb nearly doubled to 7.2
million barrels per day in April compared with 3.9 million bpd in
February before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran, according to data
provided by Kpler.
The interactive chart by Kpler in the story is a shipwreck.
The data is in millions of barrels per day passing through, as explained in the story. Unfortunately you don't see "million" anywhere in the chart.
What you see is 5.2B, 7.7B, 2.9B, etc., which could easily be misinterpreted as either "barrels" or "billion".
The proper designation should be MMb/d or perhaps MMB/D in the chart, but maybe just leave that out entirely next time because it's already too busy and just put "million" in the subtitle before "barrels" and leave it 5.2, 7.7, 2.9, etc. in the chart.
... "The United States has defeated this pest before, and we will do it again," the USDA said.
... Dudley Hoskins, undersecretary for marketing and regulatory programs at the USDA ... “USDA invested heavily in the tools needed to eliminate NWS ever since
cases started increasing in Central America and Mexico,” Hoskins said.
“The United States has defeated this pest before, and we will do it
again.” ...
... Washington has halted cattle imports from Mexico and invested millions
in setting up a new sterile fly production plant in Metapa, Mexico. But
it will take roughly a year to come online.
... The U.S. eliminated screwworms in the 20th century by flying planes over
hotspots to drop red-striped boxes packed with sterile flies, sometimes
called “cupcakes” by ranchers. The USDA constructed a fly production
plant in Mission, Texas, in 1962, that pumped out 96 trillion flies
until it was decommissioned in 1981. Now the USDA is planning to
resurrect the plant to disperse sterile flies, while Texas officials
have scattered 100 screwworm traps along the border.
USDA inspectors known as Tick Riders who patrol the border on horseback
to guard against another pest, the cattle fever tick, have also been
tasked with conducting screwworm preventive treatment for all cattle and
horses they find in the border area.
At the heart of the problem is an unworkable math equation. The USDA
estimated 500 million flies need to be released weekly to push the fly
back to the Darien Gap. At its maximum, the Panama plant produces just
100 million.
“It’s an overwhelming situation at this point,” Dr. Lansford said.
“Screwworm is obviously doing well in Mexico, and they’re up against the
same challenges we are.” ...
... Moscamed, as the factory is called, will begin manufacturing 100 million sterile flies by July 2026. ...
Until now, the sterile flies that are spread throughout the country to
combat the screwworm plague (100 million each week) are brought from a
plant managed by the Panama-United States Commission for the Eradication
and Prevention of the Cattle Screwworm (Copeg), in Panama, where they
have been working at maximum capacity to control the pest since January
2025. ...
With the other leg of the project, the construction of a manufacturing
plant for these flies in Texas, international efforts project a
production of up to 500 million flies per week, which will be released
throughout the region. If international cooperation continues, myiasis
could be eradicated in less time than the first time. Some
representatives of Senasica have even talked about achieving this goal
in five years. ...
USDA didn't break ground on the Texas facility until two months ago.
... Initial operational capability targeted for November 2027, reaching production of 100 million sterile flies per week.
Construction continues immediately beyond initial operations to scale
full production capacity to 300 million sterile flies per week. ...
This new state-of-the-art facility will complement USDA’s ongoing
production of 100 million sterile flies per week at the Panama-based COPEG facility.
USDA has also invested $21 million to support modernization of Mexico’s
Metapa, MX facility, expected to be operational in summer 2026. ...
The four-week moving average of initial claims has been falling for a year.
The four-week moving average of continued claims has been falling for ten months, not very fast at first, but falling decisively nevertheless.
The actual number unemployed 27 weeks or longer is down since December 2025. Yes, it is slightly higher than in January.
The percentage of population unemployed 27 weeks or longer is not surging either. At 0.666% in April, the percentage has been holding fairly steady near this level also for ten months.
In this latter metric, a surge would look more like a steady climb toward 1.00% of population unemployed 27 weeks or longer, which is common after recessions begin. The climb to the current level has been very choppy, reflecting the chaos of positive and negative developments under Trump II.
And incidentally, a contraction in this metric falling below 0.5% would indicate good times are here indeed, so this right now is not that either, as Trumpty Dumpty keeps saying.
Of course all of this could be about to change for the worse because of oil.
... The White House declined to comment on the report when asked by CNBC. A
White House official said while Trump “always prefers a diplomatic
solution, he has been clear about the consequences if Iran refuses to
make a deal.” ...
House lawmakers on Wednesday passed legislation designed to force
President Trump to end the Iran War, marking a victory for Democrats and
the constitutional purists who say the conflict is illegal without
explicit congressional approval.
The development is largely symbolic, since there are lingering disputes
about whether the measure, known as a concurrent resolution, carries the
force of law. And Trump is certain to contest the authority of the
measure even if it’s also passed by the Senate, where it’s headed next. ...
Behind Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.),
most Republicans have argued that the conflict does not rise to the
level of a war, and therefore doesn’t require congressional approval. ...
The administration is also challenging the measure from a practical
angle, arguing that the conflict ended when Trump called for a ceasefire
in early April. ...
Core inflation has been rattling around 3% or higher for nearly five consecutive years as our betters fail to get inflation down to their 2% goal.
I say their goal because 0% is the goal in the law.
Goals are real nice, aren't they?
They, too, are meaningless. They are tricks to persuade you that our elected officials are serious people who agree with you while they have no intention of doing what they say they will do.
"Well I'm really sorry, Mr. Smith. We tried really hard to get inflation down but we had all these unexpected events ruin our best efforts."
In 1Q2026 core inflation rose, to 3.11%, and under current circumstances no one thinks 2Q is going to be lower, which will make it five full years of this and headed the wrong way again.
One good blip deserves another, I guess.
The Treasury Secretary is not serious about inflation, and just about everyone points to Scott Bessent as the serious person in this administration.
