Thursday, September 4, 2025

If the Bureau of Labor Statistics is drinking the liberal Koolaid, ADP must be drinking it too

 

Since December ADP is showing +80k jobs per month through August, PAYEMS is showing +85k jobs per month through July, as if they were drinking what BLS supposedly drinks.
 
And that's a fact, Jack.
 

 

The Supremes have the opportunity to do the funniest thing

 

Wednesday, September 3, 2025

Uniparty Trump hides behind the skirts of the 2001 anti-terror legislation to murder so-called terrorists near Venezuela after cutting and running from the Houthis in the Red Sea

<insert tough guy image here>

MEXICO CITY — U.S. forces could have stopped the boat that officials say was carrying illegal drugs from Venezuela to the United States on Tuesday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said, but President Donald Trump chose instead to destroy it, killing 11 people on board, to send a deterrent message to traffickers. ...

The action was a dramatic escalation for the U.S. in its fight against drug traffickers. Lawmakers and legal analysts questioned the legality of launching a lethal strike against civilians in international waters outside of an armed conflict.

White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said in a statement that the strike was “conducted against the operations of a designated terrorist organization and was taken in defense of vital U.S. national interests and in the collective self-defense of other nations,” an apparent reference to the 2001 authorization for the use of military force enacted by Congress after the 9/11 terrorist attacks that year. It authorizes the use of force against the perpetrators of the al-Qaeda attacks and to prevent “future acts of international terrorism.” Various lawmakers have tried unsuccessfully for years to repeal the measure, including Vice President JD Vance, who as a senator in 2023 co-sponsored the End Endless Wars Act. ...

The U.S. Coast Guard sometimes shoots out the engines of go-fast boats during maritime interdictions, the former agent said, but killing the crew is new for the United States. ...

Mary Ellen O’Connell, a professor of law at the University of Notre Dame, said the strike violated international law. The U.S. is not in armed conflict with Venezuela or its criminal elements, she noted, which means it violated the suspects’ right to life. ...

Colombian President Gustavo Petro called the attack “murder.”

“We have been capturing civilians transporting drugs for decades without killing them,” Petro said. “Those who transport drugs are not the big drug lords, but very poor young people from the Caribbean and the Pacific. ...

 More



Gold hit a record high $3,578.50 today, silver rose to $41.34

 Safe-haven gold rally gains further momentum after soft US data

... Spot gold was up 1.2% to $3,576.59 per ounce by 2:25 p.m. EDT (1825 GMT), after hitting a record high of $3,578.50. ... 

Riding the wave of gold's rally, spot silver rose 1.1% to $41.34, its highest level since September 2011. ...

 

Tuesday, September 2, 2025

Bonds tank and gold soars to start September in huge embarrassment to Banana Republican Donald Trump, who wouldn't pay his own bills let alone the country's

... Tariffs are set to bring in $172.1 billion in 2025, according to the Tax Foundation, which would be a nice financial boost to a country with a ballooning budget deficit.

“If this ruling is upheld, refunds of existing tariffs are on the table which could cause a surge in Treasury issuance and yields,” wrote Ed Mills of Raymond James in a note. ...

More

 



Gold briefly makes new record high $3,508.50 . . . and $3,529.93 in the PM Update per Reuters


 

 ... Spot gold was steady at $3,476.48 per ounce, after hitting a record high of $3,508.50 earlier in the session. Bullion has gained 32% so far this year. U.S. gold futures for December delivery gained 0.9% to $3,546.80. ... Spot gold prices rose 27% in 2024, and broke the $3,000 per ounce level for the first time in March ...

More.

PM Update per Reuters:

... Spot gold was up 1.5% at $3,529.01 per ounce as of 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT), after climbing as high as $3,529.93. Bullion has gained 34.5% this year. ... 

Spot silver inched up 0.4% at $40.84 per ounce, after hitting its highest since September 2011. ...

Monday, September 1, 2025

Silver hits 14-year high

... Spot silver rose 1.6% to $40.31 per ounce, the highest since September 2011. ...

More

Irwin Stelzer: Trump has substituted state capitalism for market capitalism

 

 Trump sees off the free-market capitalism that enriched America

... In short, the extent of presidential control of the economy has not been seen since the end of the Second World War. Trump has added to his influence over macroeconomic policy by levying tariffs, another name for taxes. He is in the process of gaining control of monetary policy by packing the Fed board and firing an existing board member for alleged mortgage fraud, no trial necessary.

Fed independence, done and dusted, control of the macroeconomy complete, he is turning his attention to the independent players that make up the microeconomic economy. With sycophants in seats once occupied by powerful advisers and the opposition Democrats in disarray, effective resistance to Trump’s power push is negligible. ...

Now, as president, he is favouring visitors with baseball caps emblazoned “Trump in 2028”.

I wonder how many illegal immigrants from Poland Trump will be rounding up in Chicago lol


There were still 50,000 illegal Poles in the United States in 2016.

 Sources: Feds Secure Naval Station Great Lakes for Immigration Blitz

Sunday, August 31, 2025

Are the $10 trillion with you in the room right now, Karoline?

 


Nope, it's already peaked

 Every other surge made it into high or very high range, but not this one.

That's good news.

 

 COVID CASES SPIKING... AGAIN...


 

The ever reliable UK Express reports a civilian Ukrainian ship near Odessa was "blown up" when it wasn't

 Ukrainian civilian ship blown up by 'unidentified explosive device' in Black Sea

Ukraine has revealed a civilian ship was blown up by an unidentified explosive device in the Black Sea, off the coast of Odesa. ...
 
The ship, which has not been named, sustained only minor damage and was able to continue sailing under its own power. ...
 
Anyway, here's a picture of the ship:
 

 

The Grauniad wants you to worry about a far-right civil war in the United States employing drones because of one guy on Substack found by one analyst with a vivid imagination

 
 ... the far-right American terrorist movement sees off-the-shelf or home-built first-person viewer (FPV) drones as a critical weapon in their own future war against the US government ...

... talk is commonplace of how these cheap drones are revolutionizing current wars and will be the critical tools of a so-called second civil war ...

... Multiple sources told the Guardian that the FBI has major concerns about the accelerationist neo-Nazi sect on the far right – one calling for an insurgency against the US government – and other ultra-violent actors in the same ideological space, eyeing the use of FPV drones for domestic attacks. ...

... evidence has emerged of military-trained neo-Nazis with relevant skillsets having pinpointed the drones as a potential tool ...

... [Joshua] Fisher-Birch first spotted the Substack and vouched for its credibility. According to him, the writer’s alleged background is not only “significant” but “violent white supremacist groups would find his drone experience to be useful”. ...


 

  

Saturday, August 30, 2025

Meanwhile at Real Clear Politics, Democrats are hemorrhaging voters but consistently continue to win the generic ballot lol

 



Real Clear Politics rewrites headlines to make Trump look better


 

 

 

Appeals Court Rules Against Some Tariffs But Leaves Them in Place takes you to  Most Trump tariffs are not legal, US appeals court rules lol.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/most-trump-tariffs-are-not-legal-us-appeals-court-rules/ar-AA1LvGU7

https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/most-trump-tariffs-are-not-legal-us-appeals-court-rules-2025-08-30/ 

 

 


 

Friday, August 29, 2025

U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit isn't buying Trump's emergency argument for his tariffs because he's taxing everything from nearly every country


 

 Most Trump tariffs ruled illegal by appeals court, dealing major blow to trade policy

A federal appeals court ruled Friday that most of President Donald Trump’s global tariffs are illegal, striking a massive blow to the core of his aggressive trade policy.

The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit held in a 7-4 ruling that the law Trump invoked when he granted his most expansive tariffs — including his “reciprocal” tariffs — does not actually grant him the power to impose those levies.

“The core Congressional power to impose taxes such as tariffs is vested exclusively in the legislative branch by the Constitution,” the court said. “Tariffs are a core Congressional power.”

The appellate court paused its ruling from taking effect until Oct. 14, in order to give the Trump administration time to ask the Supreme Court to reverse the decision. ... 

In Friday’s ruling, the court found that the challenged tariffs exceeded Trump’s authority under IEEPA.

“Both the Trafficking Tariffs and the Reciprocal Tariffs are unbounded in scope, amount, and duration,” the majority ruled. 

“These tariffs apply to nearly all articles imported into the United States (and, in the case of the Reciprocal Tariffs, apply to almost all countries), impose high rates which are ever-changing and exceed those set out in the [U.S. tariff system], and are not limited in duration.” ...

 

Buh bye

 

Let's check in on real return from stocks since and before the August 2000 high to see what a real bull market looks like


 

$SPX since August 2000 through July 2025: 5.24% real, average per annum, dividends fully reinvested.

And the 24 years, 11 months before that to August 2000?

10.90%.

108% better. 

IYKYK. 

Let's check in on the S&P 500 version of the Buffett Indicator

The S&P 500 averaged 6,029.95 in June 2025.

Nominal GDP in 2Q2025 from the second estimate yesterday was $30.3539 trillion.

The first divided by the second yields 198.65, 145.25% elevated above the long-term median of 81.

Off the chart. 

Where angels fear to tread.

 


 

Population adjusted vehicle miles traveled in the first half of 2025 is lower than at the bottom of the Obama travel depression in 1H2014

Ain't got no where to go, I guess, with all that new delivery availability spawned by the pandemic.