Trump & Co. already know they're going to lose in the mid-terms

 

It's going to be a wait that seems like an eternity.

Reported here:

... The same person added that Trump sees little downside politically: 'No. 1, the president is not running for reelection. And No. 2, we're probably gonna lose the House in the midterms.' ...

Senator John Kennedy (R-La.) was blunt in his warning: 'If tariffs did have an inflationary impact - or an impact on interest rates that caused inflation and the economy moved toward a recession - that would be a very bad thing… It would turn the Trump presidency from a four year term into a two year term, because we'd lose in the midterms.' ...

 

 

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is the Trump administration sycophant who tells Trump whatever he wants to hear

 

 Reported here:

... On the other side are Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and senior adviser Peter Navarro, the latter a long-time tariff evangelist.

Navarro has described the administration as operating in harmony, quoting the 2002 film Drumline: 'One band, one sound.'

'We are the greatest economic team and April 2nd will be a historic day for American workers,' Lutnick said. 

But others inside the administration are less certain of Lutnick's motivations.

'He goes into the Oval and tells the president whatever he wants to hear,' said one Trump ally, calling Lutnick a 'f***ing nightmare' who backs Trump's instincts without considering broader consequences. 

Lutnick's influence appears to be growing, even as concerns mount that his approach is untethered from policy grounding.

As the April 2 deadline looms, inflation continues to rise, according to new Commerce Department data released on Friday - even before the new tariffs take effect. ...

 

Earthquake in Myanmar, aka Burma, kills over 1,000

Myanmar’s earthquake death toll jumps to more than 1,000 as more bodies recovered from the rubble

 

The death toll from a powerful 7.7 magnitude earthquake in Myanmar jumped to more than 1,000 on Saturday as more bodies were pulled from the rubble of the scores of buildings that collapsed when it struck near the country’s second-largest city. ...

In neighboring Thailand, the quake rocked the greater Bangkok area, home to some 17 million people, and other parts of the country.

Bangkok city authorities said so far six people have been found dead, 26 injured and 47 are still missing, most from a construction site near the capital’s popular Chatuchak market. ...

Earthquakes are rare in Bangkok, but relatively common in Myanmar. The country sits on the Sagaing Fault, a major north-south fault that separates the India plate and the Sunda plate. ...

 

 

Elon Musk hasn't saved the taxpayers anything, year-to-date spending is actually 7.4% higher in 2025 than in 2024

 Reported here:

... The Hamilton Project, an economic policy think tank, tracks federal spending using daily treasury statements published by the government.

These data show that the federal government had spent $1.893 trillion in 2025 as of March 26, compared to $1.763 trillion at the same date last year. In other words, federal spending in on pace to come in 7.4% higher this year than last. ...

 

Andrew Sullivan today: The GOP Congress has long since become the equivalent of Putin’s Duma — a rubber-stamp body designed solely to support the executive branch

 Here.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(shadow banned by Elon Musk)

Yeah, it's cold in Greenland, but it's hot where you're goin' buster

 

Gold hits its eighteenth record high this year at $3,086.70

 -- CNBC

After 38 years, it's time to junk the bedrock idea undergirding conservative economic philosophy of low taxes because IT'S NOT TRUE

 AXIOS today, here:

A bedrock idea of conservative economic philosophy is [the] idea that low taxes fuel economic growth. 

This idea is simply false, and history proves it.

We've had 38 years since the Reagan Tax Reform Act of 1986 to prove it correct and it's not.

Real GDP 1986-2024 has grown at a compound annual rate of 2.586%, a rate 29% worse than for the same length of time before that when taxes were much higher.

Real GDP 1948-1986 grew at a compound annual rate of 3.635%.

Tax reform is a complicated topic, the political subject of the AXIOS article.

I can simplify it for you: Tax like we used to in the immediate post-war.

Nominal marginal rates in 1957 (dollars are NOT adjusted for inflation in the tables), the height of the Baby Boom, went from 20% to 91%.

The set up didn't stop people from marrying, having children, and buying houses, and it didn't stop economic growth, because it forced rich people to avoid these confiscatory marginal rates by investing their money domestically to earn income at lower rates of capital taxation.

Ronald Reagan's tax reform was a license to invest elsewhere, and we're all poorer for it. 

If Democrats had any brains they would propose richly rewarding domestic investment using the tax code and severely punishing foreign investment. They could start by raising top marginal tax rates on ordinary income and offering much lower long term capital gains tax rates de-linked from ordinary income but only for domestic investment.

The country desperately needs much better economic growth, and the libertarian-Republican consensus is not providing it.

 

 

Investment abroad eclipsed investment at home for the first time in 1993 and is 200% of domestic today

The March 28, 2025 GDPNow forecast for 1Q2025 GDP falls sharply to -2.8%

 

Just as 9.7 million of 43 million student loan borrowers become past due again, cars they can't afford to buy anyway soar in price due to tariffs, a one-two punch alienating the youth vote from Trump

 Over 9 million student loan borrowers past due after bills restarted, Fed estimates

... A new student loan delinquency can cause a borrower’s credit score to drop more than 150 points, the Fed warns.

Trump’s auto tariffs will likely push car prices up thousands of dollars

... The tariffs will kick in at midnight on April 3, and Trump has said they will be “permanent.” ...

#RecessionIndicator: Young Americans are losing confidence in the economy — and it shows online

... A spokesperson for Klarna acknowledged to NBC News that people needing to pay for meals on credit is “a bad indicator for society.” ...

Latest Trump minerals deal with Ukraine carves up the invaded country between Trump and Putin even worse than before

 

Trump's minerals deal with Ukraine is an expropriation document, demanding half of its oil and gas, almost all of its metals, and now also much of its infrastructure in reparations.

Black radicals want reparations from whites. The radical Trump wants to gobble up most of Ukraine.

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, here:

Donald Trump is holding a gun to the head of Volodymyr Zelensky, demanding huge reparations payments and laying claim to half of Ukraine’s oil, gas, and hydrocarbon resources as well as almost all its metals and much of its infrastructure.

The latest version of his “minerals deal”, obtained by The Telegraph, is unprecedented in the history of modern diplomacy and state relations. ...

It dovetails with parallel talks between the US and Russia for a comprehensive energy partnership, including plans to restore West Siberian gas flows to Europe in large volumes, with US companies and Trump-aligned financiers gaining a major stake in the business.

The revived gas trade would flow through Ukraine’s network, and later via the Baltic as the sabotaged Nord Stream pipelines are brought back on stream. ...

Prof Riley said: “It is not compatible with EU membership, and perhaps that is part of the purpose. I have to wonder whether the real intention might not be to force Zelensky to reject it.” ...

Germany’s Bild Zeitung said talks have been underway for weeks in Switzerland to reopen the Nord Stream 2 pipelines, conducted secretly by ex-Stasi agent Matthias Warnig and Mr Trump’s envoy Richard Grenell, a man known for his Kremlin sympathies.

The terms would give US contractors operational control and a fat revenue stream, creating money out of “thin air”. A cynic might call it a legal “donation” to Mr Trump’s circle by the Kremlin.

“There is talk about Nord Stream. It would be interesting if the Americans put pressure on Europe, to make them stop refusing our Russian gas,” said Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister. ...

All evidence so far is that Trump & Putin Inc is a perfectly harmonious joint venture.

 

The new Axis of Evil: Putin and Trump are tag-teaming to carve up the world

 

 Russia’s Putin says it would be a ‘profound mistake’ to dismiss Trump’s push for Greenland

“In short, the United States has serious plans regarding Greenland. These plans have long historical roots, as I have just mentioned, and it is obvious that the United States will continue to consistently advance its geo-strategic, military-political and economic interests in the Arctic,” Putin said.

 

Democrats united under Hakeem Jeffries in the US House are the only ones in American politics above water right now

 US House Democrats voted unanimously against the Republicans' continuing spending resolution under -4.2 underwater Republican Speaker Mike Johnson (except for Democrat Jared Golden [ME-2], a Blue Dog Democrat who under ranked choice voting in Maine wins by being the second choice of people who voted for someone else).

Senate Minority Leader Democrat Chucky Schumer (-19.6) led eight other Democrats in the US Senate to pass the continuing spending resolution. 

Republicans are jumping the shark. Opposing that is popular. 

Democrats, are you listening?

Core pce inflation in February 2025 was 2.8% year over year, 75% higher than the 1.6% average 2017-2020

 The last eleven months have seen the year over year measure fluctuating between 2.88% and 2.63%.

Zero progress since April 2024, when the measure rounded to 2.9%, same as in December. 

Yeah, but your leaders wear Tiffany and Rolex, that's what counts.

 

 

Phhh, I go 25 times the sound of speed after one espresso

 Drink coffee, say stupid things faster.

Why do the UniParty's bitches feel they must flaunt their expensive bling from Tiffany and Rolex at the southern border and in El Salvador?

 

Headlines to remain illiterate as before

 Wather forecasts may be less accurate due to govt cuts...

Real GDP update for Mar 27, 2025

 The third report for real GDP for 4Q2024 and full year 2024 was released today here.

The annual rate of economic growth in 4Q was 2.4%, and 2.8% for 2024.

But here's the big picture.

Real GDP for the 79 years 1929-2008 grew at a compound annual rate of 3.405%.

Real GDP for the 16 years 2008-2024 grew at a compound annual rate of 2.074%, a rate 39% lower.

We have not had, and do not now have, the greatest economy ever at any point since the Great Recession.

 

 

Russia repeatedly violates ceasefire on Ukrainian energy infrastructure

 Zelenskiy says Russia hit Ukraine’s power infrastructure, US should react 

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Thursday Russian artillery had damaged Ukraine’s energy infrastructure in the front-line city of Kherson, two days after the U.S. announced that each side had agreed to a truce on energy strikes. ...

Russia, which launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and now holds about 20% of the country, contends that it has observed an energy strike truce since March 18. Ukraine says Russia has attacked eight Ukrainian energy facilities since that date. ...

It's important to remember that screw-up Pete Hegseth is SECDEF because of J. D. Vance

 

... Vice President Vance had to break a tie vote to get Hegseth confirmed after three Republicans — Sens. Susan Collins (Maine), Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) and Mitch McConnell (Ky.) — voted no. ...

More.