Well, the vote for Donald Trump in NY might have been higher had Independents and Democrats been allowed to vote, you big dummy.
Wednesday, April 20, 2016
Republican turnout in 2016 New York presidential primary dwarfs 2012 by 350% and 2008 by 28%
857,250 turned out yesterday in New York's Republican presidential primary with 98% of the vote counted.
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| 2008 |
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| 2012 |
Ted Cruz' window of opportunity to prove his principles are actually worth anything is rapidly closing
From Charles Hurt, here:
Mere weeks ago, Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas pressured Ohio Gov. John Kasich to get out of the race for the Republican nomination because he had no mathematical chance of winning. ... now the exact same thing can be said of Mr. Cruz and his hopeless campaign.
Bloomberg says Ted is dead using AP delegate math and can't reach 1,237
Here:
The path for Cruz to 1,237 delegates before the July convention in Cleveland is now officially closed: 674 delegates remain in the states ahead, and Cruz is 678 short of the magic number, according to an Associated Press tally. Worse, his double-digit victory in Wisconsin on April 5 has failed to produce a perceivable polling bounce in key upcoming states.
That's based on 674 delegates remaining.
Beginning with Connecticut next week, Real Clear Politics also shows 674 delegates still up for grabs.
Bloomberg itself, however, shows 734 not yet allocated, including 3 in Colorado, 3 in Oklahoma, 4 in Wyoming, 5 in Louisiana, 9 in the US Virgin Islands, 8 in Guam, 7 in American Samoa, 18 in North Dakota, and 3 in New York. Subtract those 60 and you get 674.
At 559 delegates committed to him so far, Cruz needs 678 to get to 1,237, so technically there aren't enough left in the future contests, but those 60 from previous contests are still in the mix. 101 delegates or so will probably go to Trump in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland and Rhode Island next week, balancing out those 60, with Pennsylvania's 71 delegates also in the mix.
After that, Ted will be truly dead.
The delegates won by others are Rubio (171), Kasich (147), Carson (9), Bush (4), Fiorina (1), Huckabee (1) and Rand Paul (1).
With 845, Trump still needs 392, which is 58% of the 674 remaining in future contests, or 53% of the 734 future plus yet undecided, or . . . add in those won by others and Trump needs a combination of future wins, undecideds and poached delegates representing just 37% of the 1,068 total available.
Paul Manafort's job.
John Kasich wins (barely) one district in New York: NY-12, the richest district in the country by per capita income
That's what the New York Times' endorsement is worth.
The district includes parts of eastern Manhattan ("Well we're movin' on up, to the East side, to a deluxe apartment in the skyyyyyyy"), Greenpoint and western Queens.
Tuesday, April 19, 2016
Real Clear Politics has Trump the winner in New York at 9:05:30 PM without any votes!
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| 9:05:30 PM |
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| 9:05:48 PM |
Excuse me, 80% of New York counties didn't start the voting today until NOON, so spare me the outrage if some precincts weren't open on time
New York has 62 counties.
ABC News reports here:
This is because polling places in 50 of the state’s counties – outside the New York City area and Buffalo – opened at noon. People in those counties with day jobs can’t vote until after work, so they won’t be included in early exit poll results.
The Ted Cruz Math crumbles under the strain: Just a couple of days ago Ted said he had won 11 elections in a row, now it's just 5
Hm.
And he's acting just like Obama with the whole don't interrupt me attitude, too.
Here from the interview with Sean Hannity:
"Sean, can I answer your last question without being interrupted? ... All of this noise and complaining and whining has come from the Trump campaign because they don't like the fact that they've lost five elections in a row," Cruz said.
New York hyperbole: Rep. Peter King says he will take cyanide if Ted Cruz becomes the nominee
Here, from the John Kasich supporting congressman:
"Any New Yorker who even thinks of voting for Ted Cruz should have their head examined. ... I hate Ted Cruz. And I think I'll take cyanide if he got the nomination."
Monday, April 18, 2016
Richard Lugar reminds us why he's no longer a Republican US Senator from Indiana
Where else but in the New York Times, here:
[W]e would seem close to an optimal state-friendly federal immigration policy.
When the president took his executive action on immigration, he was not flouting the will of Congress; rather, he was using the discretion Congress gave him to fulfill his constitutional duty to “take Care that the Laws be faithfully executed.”
Ann Coulter: GOP has to beat Hillary in an ELECTION, not a little meeting, caucus or convention
Trump has won 20 elections, Cruz . . . 9.
Trump's winning vote is 6,008,245 while Cruz' is just 2,255,345.
This is as good as it's going to get for Ted Cruz: 196
That's the delegate distance between Cruz and Trump going into the stretch.
The number will only widen from here as Trump racks up delegates in New York this week and five other contests next week in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island.
After that it will be mathematically impossible for Cruz to reach 1,237.
Sunday, April 17, 2016
Ann Coulter: People think libertarians are pussies
Because the country's gone socialist and all libertarians do is suck up to liberals on the social issues.
Watch here.
Draft their asses and send them to Syria.
Saturday, April 16, 2016
The current very strong El Nino now averages 2.16 for five consecutive measuring periods and is waning
September-October-November: 2.1
October-November-December: 2.2
November-December-January: 2.3
December-January-February: 2.2
January-February-March: 2.0
The very strong El Nino of 1997-98 had five consecutive periods measuring an average of 2.18, the 1982-83 just three measuring an average of 2.1.
The current episode is twelve months long (average 1.53), the '97-'98 was thirteen (average 1.56), and the '82-'83 was fifteen (average 1.30).
Friday, April 15, 2016
Enjoy the Big Boob on the Right while you can: Limbaugh's iHeartMedia may not last until the election
From the story here:
Concurrently, iHeartRadio’s parent company, iHeartMedia, is heading to court, teetering on bankruptcy. The once-dominant radio behemoth is saddled with $20 billion in debt, thanks to a misguided leveraged takeover engineered by Bain Capital in 2008, the same year the radio giant inked its disastrous Limbaugh deal. ... “It’s not a question of whether it collapses but when, and it’s likely to come sooner rather than later,” suggested Media Life. “It could be within months."
Thursday, April 14, 2016
Rush Limbaugh, shillin' again for Ted Cruz: "Think of a straw poll as an election"
That's precisely what Ted Cruz argues while claiming he's won all these "elections" where no elections were conducted.
There was no contest in Colorado. There wasn't even a caucus as there was in 2012, which Santorum won but got gypped anyway!
Wednesday, April 13, 2016
Obama's war on coal kills Peabody Energy, the US' largest coal company
Number two Arch Coal went belly up in January.
Story here.
Meanwhile 7 coal-fired power plants in Michigan are closing this week to meet new EPA emission regulations. Almost 1,000 megawatts of electricity generating capacity go away as a result, to be replaced by north of 500 megawatts of capacity from a natural gas plant.
Details here.
Tuesday, April 12, 2016
When the Supremes rule that men can pee and poop in all little girls bathrooms, John Kasich will just say it's time to move on
OK, somebody confiscate this guy's Republican registration right away before someone gets hurt.
Lyin' Ted is on Hannity right now claiming he's won the last eleven primary elections
The guy still can't count.
Let's see. Trump has won Michigan, Mississippi, Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina and Arizona. That's seven.
Cruz has won Utah and Wisconsin. That's two.
Kasich's won one, Ohio, and Rubio one, DC.
Total = eleven.
It would be good if Colorado, Wyoming and North Dakota held actual elections, but they haven't, and won't.
Imagine the fibs he'll tell as president.
Delegate race update: Trump rises to 755, and after April 26th it will be mathematically impossible for Cruz
Trump is up to 755 today with 12 from Missouri. Cruz has 545. Trump needs 57% of the 842 left to get to 1237. Cruz needs 82%.
It will be mathematically impossible for Cruz after April 26th, by when 267 delegates will have been decided in New York, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island, leaving just 575 delegates for contests in May and June.
Missouri finally hands over 12 delegates to Trump a month after he won them, pushing him up to 755
From the story here:
Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump added 12 delegates from Missouri on Tuesday, nearly a month after his narrow victory in the state's primary.
Missouri Secretary of State Jason Kander — a Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate — certified the March 15 primary results, giving Trump the additional delegates.
The race had been too close to call, but according to the final tally, Trump won with 383,631 votes. Ted Cruz had 381,666 votes.
The difference between conservative talk radio and Donald J. Trump is basically religious
Conservative talk radio accepts the rules but Donald J. Trump flouts them.
He's a good Protestant, and a great American: The father of our country, George Washington, refused to take communion, and wouldn't kneel in prayer.
The GOPe can write all the rules they want, and then they can rewrite them.
Better get started.
In response to angry caller about Colorado Republicans, Limbaugh says Colorado wrote the rules to stop Cruz, not help him
This is the standard Limbaugh response, which is nothing more than Ted Cruz' own "me-too" argument in a different form.
Trump will stop illegal immigration? Me too! (nevermind I'm trying to expand immigration)
Trump wants to build a wall? Me too! (nevermind I never mentioned it until Trump came along)
Trump is against lousy trade agreements? Me too! (nevermind Paul Ryan and I are for TPA and TPP)
Claiming that Colorado wrote its rules to stop Cruz is nothing more than trying to paint Cruz with Trump's colors, as if Cruz is a victim just like Trump. THEN WHY DID CRUZ WIN ALL THE DELEGATES, HUH?
It's called reaching for the coat tails.
Limbaugh's man Ted Cruz has been sucking air since Trump arrived on the scene and has only survived by learning how to run in Trump's slipstream.
#NeverTrump Ricketts family billion$ behind the delegate poaching effort benefiting Ted Cruz in North Dakota, Colorado, Wyoming
From the story here:
After that contest [North Dakota], Brian Baker, a senior adviser to the PAC [Our Principles PAC], issued a statement asserting that the race “is coming down to a ground game battle for delegates. We will fight for every last delegate vote all the way to Cleveland.” Baker also advises the PAC’s biggest donors, the Ricketts family, who had contributed $5 million of the $8 million raised by the PAC through the end of February, and who had come under fire from Trump when their involvement was revealed.
Weekly NBC/SurveyMonkey poll gives it in November to Hillary, by only 2 over Trump, by 5 over Cruz
The race has always been closer than MSM let on. Most of their polling is designed to shape opinion, not measure it.
Details here.
In early March Rasmussen here showed Hillary ahead of Trump 41-36 for the first time after two polls in late 2015 had shown that match-up close at one or two points either way, in other words, too close to call.
Clueless Gruber quotes Mark Levin criticizing #NeverTrump, doesn't realize he's joined it
At the top of this last hour on his radio show.
Mark Levin, quoted here last Friday:
"So count me as never Trump.”
Keep working at it, Steve, you'll get it right someday.
Your vote means something: Now that would be a revolution
Donald Trump, quoted here:
'It's not right. We're supposed to be a democracy. We're supposed to be: You vote and the vote means something, all right? You vote, and the vote means something. And we've got to do something about it. We should have won a long time ago but we keep losing where we're winning. Today winning votes doesn't mean anything,' he said.
Monday, April 11, 2016
Rush accepts misleading NBC analysis showing Trump over performing delegate wins by 22%
From the NBC analysis here:
Trump now leads the Republican field with 756 delegates — or 45 percent of all delegates awarded to date. Yet he has won about 37 percent of all votes in the primaries, according to the NBC analysis, meaning Trump's delegate support is greater than his actual support from voters.
The math is not mistaken, just misleading.
If roughly 1635 delegates have been awarded so far to all GOP players, then Trump's delegate count represents 46% of those. The difference from 37% of the votes cast is indeed 22%.
But that's not a measure of Trump's "gaming" of the system, only of his real popularity over his competitors.
He's won, after all, 20 states outright in the popular vote while Cruz has won only 9. Trump should have a greater percentage of the delegates for that reason. And he does.
Republican proportional voting rules are bleeding delegates from both Trump and Cruz at about the same 35% rate
Trump has won the popular vote in 20 contests representing 924 delegates, of which he has been allocated only 609, or 66%. The proportional voting rules based on congressional district performance have thus bled away 34% of his support in those races. Ted Cruz bled away 206 delegates from Trump in these states, 22% of the total.
Cruz has won the popular vote in only 9 contests representing 433 delegates, of which he has been allocated just 271, or 63%. The rules have thus bled away 37% of his support in those races. Donald Trump bled away 115 delegates from Cruz in these states, 27% of the total.
And, on average, 10% of the delegates legitimately owed to both Trump and Cruz have gone to candidates who have had no chance of winning whatsoever, and wouldn't be able to argue they have a chance of winning were it not for this insane way of proceeding which gives them the delegates to say so in the first place.
It doesn't seem fair to the voters in these 29 states that their candidates won the popular vote but didn't win all the delegates, as in winner take all, which will most certainly be the rule when the Republican nominee finally faces the Democrat in November.
If all delegates in the Democrat primaries were allotted on a winner take all basis, the outcome wouldn't be much different than it is
Based only on the 29 states so far where Democrats have held contests which collected a popular vote, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders with 1142 pledged and super delegates to his 371 based on the Bloomberg data here, which are not complete in instances. That's a 75% to 25% race.
Turn it into winner take all instead, and the result isn't significantly different. Hillary would have 1803 pledged and super delegates from the 16 states in which she was the popular vote winner, and Bernie would have 698 from the 13 states in which he won the popular vote. That's a 72% to 28% race.
Turn it into winner take all instead, and the result isn't significantly different. Hillary would have 1803 pledged and super delegates from the 16 states in which she was the popular vote winner, and Bernie would have 698 from the 13 states in which he won the popular vote. That's a 72% to 28% race.
This analysis leaves out the 301 delegates so far where no popular vote was taken. They come from Iowa, Nevada, Maine, Alaska, Washington, American Samoa, the Northern Mariana islands and something called "Democrats Abroad".
It also leaves out the delegates Bernie has "poached" from Hillary under the rules in the states she has won, as well as the delegates Hillary has poached from Bernie where he has won the popular vote. On net I calculate Bernie has had the advantage from poaching, with 334 extra delegates in his column as a result in the 29 popular vote contests (661 minus 327).
It also leaves out the delegates Bernie has "poached" from Hillary under the rules in the states she has won, as well as the delegates Hillary has poached from Bernie where he has won the popular vote. On net I calculate Bernie has had the advantage from poaching, with 334 extra delegates in his column as a result in the 29 popular vote contests (661 minus 327).
As the delegate race stands today including all contests, it's a 62% to 38% race, with Clinton holding 1756 pledged and super delegates to Sanders' 1068.
That's close to the popular vote result on a percentage basis, where Clinton leads with 57% of the popular vote so far to Sanders' 43%, keeping in mind that we don't have a popular vote from 8 states and territories so far to make the analysis complete.
Sunday, April 10, 2016
Trump has won the popular vote in 20 of 32 states, should have 924 delegates under winner take all, gets only 743 under Republican rules
To date Donald Trump has won the popular vote in 20 of the 32 primary/caucus contests, entitling him to their 924 delegates on the winner take all principle, but the Republican "rules" made at the state level give Trump just 80% of these overall, while enriching others with undeserved delegate allocations at his expense.
Imagine if that happened in actual presidential elections, where the winner of the popular vote in a state normally wins all the state's electoral college votes representing both political parties. Under the current Republican rules applied to the presidential election, the Republican candidate and the Democrat candidate might so split the electoral college vote between themselves that the election would be thrown into the House of Representatives under the 12th amendment because no one happened to reach the majority of 270. Think of that at the federal level as the equivalent of a party convention at the state level deciding the outcome because, in the case of Trump, he failed to reach 1,237. The more likely outcome would be Republicans losing national elections because of close contests in traditionally Republican states where Democrats still lose but cut into their electoral college allocations if winner take all goes by the roadside. Republicans at the state level are actually paving the way in practice for Democrat reform efforts of electoral college rules.
The unfairness of that is self-evident. Winner take all in a state in presidential elections is designed to smooth the way to national unity. But the Republicans have instituted "proportionality" rules to the extent that they can't, in their mad factionalism, unite along lines which are similarly simple, reasonable and attractive to people who wish to embrace the party, and their country. Donald Trump has brought hordes of new voters to the Republican Party, but all Republican Party elites can do is turn up their noses at them.
Ted Cruz, who has won the popular vote in just 9 contests so far compared to Trump's 20, is entitled to only 433 delegates using winner take all. But he has 545 at this hour, 26% more than he should have, some of which come from states and territories where the people themselves aren't even allowed by the Republican elites to formalize their opinion by voting.
There is no popular vote taken this year so far in Colorado, North Dakota, Wyoming, Puerto Rico, US Virgin Islands, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands or American Samoa. Republican elites from these places decide who gets their combined 153 delegates. And #NeverTrump factions in these and other states have worked hard to make sure Trump gets as few of them as possible, if any.
To make matters worse, obvious losers like Marco Rubio and John Kasich are playing spoiler roles out of all proportion to their standing because of these rules.
Kasich has a legitimate claim on the delegates of only the one state he has won, Ohio. Instead of the 66 delegates he's entitled to, the Byzantine rules of Republicanism give him 143, 117% more than he should have.
In the case of Little Marco, he's still trying to bind his allotted 171 delegates to himself when they should be free agents because he's dropped out of the race entirely. Entitled to only 57 delegates from winning just two contests in Minnesota and DC, Rubio's unfair influence has been magnified 200% beyond what he's legitimately won because of proportional allocation rules in this year's contests.
The message being sent by Republicanism is obvious to everyone. The Republican Party is an exclusive club which has complicated, intricate rules for membership designed to keep out the riffraff, not win national elections.
Unfortunately, those rules will continue to keep the executive power far out of reach for them.
If they want to win the White House, Republicans should embrace the new voters, and Trump.
To do otherwise is political suicide.
Trump has big delegate win at Michigan Republican convention, libertarian wack job Rep. Justin Amash DEFEATED
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| Justin Amash endorsed Rand Paul in May 2015; Cruz is only his default candidate |
CNN reports here:
Trump's national delegate director, Brian Jack, called it a "big win" for Trump. "The most important votes occurred this afternoon -- we went 5-0. Five delegates for Mr. Trump ran for committee assignments; all five were elected," Jack said. He added, "This was a big win for Team Trump. We won 25 delegates from Michigan last month, and now, at least 25 supporters of Mr. Trump will be delegates to the Republican National Convention." ... Of Michigan's 59 delegates selected Friday and Saturday, Trump supporters filled 25 spots, Cruz supporters filled 17 and Kasich supporters took another 17 -- although it was unclear who all the delegates were permanently aligned with. ... Kasich supporter Chuck Yob -- the father of Republican operative John Yob -- beat Cruz supporter Rep. Justin Amash for the other spot on the credentials committee.
Poster Boy for Bush-era establishment Republicanism, Speaker of the House Hastert 1999-2007, was a child molester
But he won't be going to prison for that.
Story here.
If you felt molested politically by Republicans during the Bush era, there were good reasons for that which eerily echo in nature.
If you want that to continue, by all means vote for Kasich, or Cruz or for the hand-picked candidate of a contested Republican convention.
If you don't, vote for Trump.
Corrupt anti-Trump Indiana GOP requires convention delegation applicants to cough up $2,000 to participate, filters out supporters of The Donald
Reported by Politico, here:
Local GOP district leaders have picked slates of favored candidates from among the applicants that will be considered at Saturday’s caucuses — tiny meetings of county leaders that typically ratify the names with which they’re presented. Applicants must promise to furnish $2,000 to participate after they’re selected, a requirement that tilts the process away from newcomers and outsiders. Among the delegate applicants who made it on to recommended slates: several district GOP leaders, State Treasurer Kelly Mitchell, Secretary of State Connie Lawson, Congresswoman Susan Brooks, Carmel, Indiana, Mayor James Brainard and Portage, Indiana, Mayor James Snyder.
“One of my criteria for filtering out folks was whether or not they support Donald Trump,” said one district GOP leader. “I didn’t care whether they supported Ted Cruz or John Kasich.”
Indiana may vote for Trump on May 3rd, but most of the 57 delegates are already anti-Trump
So reports Politico, here:
Republican Party insiders in the state will select 27 delegates to the national convention on Saturday, and Trump is assured to be nearly shut out of support, according to interviews with a dozen party leaders and officials involved in the delegate selection process. Anti-Trump sentiment runs hot among GOP leadership in Indiana, and it’s driving a virulent rejection of the mogul among likely delegates. ... Pete Seat, an Indiana GOP consultant whose firm was recently retained by the Kasich campaign, said he would be “shocked” if there were more than a handful of Trump supporters in Indiana’s delegation.
Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump should be the candidates for president: The rest are tools for outside interests
Ranked from biggest tool to outside interests to smallest, based on percentage of PAC money to the total raised through February 2016, reported here:
Rick Perry: 91%
Jeb Bush: 78%
George Pataki: 71%
Chris Christie: 69%
Scott Walker: 61%
Carly Fiorina: 54%
Mike Huckabee: 53%
Marco Rubio: 50%
*Ted Cruz: 46%
Lindsey Graham: 44%
Rand Paul: 42%
Bobby Jindal: 41%
*John Kasich: 30.2%
Rick Santorum: 30%
*Hillary Clinton: 28%
Martin O'Malley: 15%
Ben Carson: 14%
Jim Webb: 13%
*Donald Trump: 5%
*Bernie Sanders: 0.1%
*still in the race
(watch the gif here)
Rigged party system is leaving both Trump and Sanders supporters feeling voiceless: What's the point of voting if delegates are going to do what they want?
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| Be the first one on your block to have your boy come home in a box |
From the story here:
[T]he sense of futility is building among supporters of Mr. Trump and Mr. Sanders, both of whom have strong appeal with people who already believe that a rigged political system leaves them voiceless and disenfranchised. ...
“It’s people who are in charge keeping their friends in power,” said Tom Carroll, 32, a union plumber who lives in Bethpage, N.Y., summing up how he viewed the electoral system. Mr. Carroll, who was at Mr. Trump’s rally on Long Island on Wednesday, expressed irritation at a system that does not always abide by the one person, one vote concept. “In other countries, we pay to fix their election systems and they get their fingers colored with fingerprint ink when they vote,” he added. “What’s the point of everyone voting if the delegates are going to do what they want?”
Saturday, April 9, 2016
Mark Levin is a hot-headed radical who doesn't have the temperament to host a radio show let alone lead an Article V convention
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| "We are rapidly approaching a moment of truth for the life of our nation!" |
Just think what he might do at a convention. He's proposed only eleven amendments to the constitution. That's not exactly the slow, incremental change usually supported by genuine conservatives. Can you imagine him suddenly changing his mind and proposing twenty-two? forty-four? Well, I exaggerate, but now we see how quickly it could get out of control with someone like him at the helm, or advising it. He reminds me of General Buck Turgidson more and more everyday.
Forget nuking the Russkies, Levin wants to nuke the constitution!
Forget nuking the Russkies, Levin wants to nuke the constitution!
A constitutional convention would be a disaster in the age of Obama. Unfortunately, Mark Levin also has no check upon his appetites, including for vengeance.
Marlene Ricketts of Chicago Cubs/TD Ameritrade fame is funding #NeverTrumper Erick Erickson, spending nearly $15 million so far against Trump
So it perhaps shouldn’t come as a surprise to find out that Erick Erickson’s media venture “The Resurgent“, is taking Super-PAC money from the (formerly Scott Walker advocates and financial backers) Ricketts family of Wisconsin who fund OUR PRINCIPLES PAC to the tune of $3,000,000 in February alone.
OpenSecrets reports here that Our Principles Pac, organized to oppose Donald Trump, has spent $14.8 million so far in the 2016 election cycle.
Last I checked Joe and Marlene Ricketts live in Wyoming, not Wisconsin.
Diana West concludes that wankers Rick Wilson and Kevin Williamson far exceed the Roger Stone standard for offensive rhetoric set by the sanctimonious Brent Bozell
Here:
What it is with these two men and masturbation is not, Glory Be, our concern; rather, it is their hellish level of discourse. I am wondering whether [L. Brent Bozo] will be issuing another righteous statement, as [he] did regarding Roger Stone, calling for "the media to shun" this noxious pair (and others, as you will see) and "denounce [them] in no uncertain terms"?
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