Friday, January 2, 2015

Index fund flows in 2014 may indicate the top is in, or nearly in

Seen here:

The impact of index funds has been revolutionary. When John Bogle, the founder of Vanguard, introduced the first vehicle designed to passively track the performance of a stock index about 40 years ago, it was derided as “Bogle’s Folly.” Today the fund’s successors, at Vanguard and elsewhere, hold $2 trillion in assets. ...

Actively managed funds still hold a majority of total stock fund assets, 63% at the end of September. But in the first nine months of 2014, actively managed stock funds attracted $2.5 billion, while $173 billion found its way into index funds, or 98.6% of the total.

This flood of money into index funds came after the market already had recorded substantial gains. [James] Stack contends that such lopsided affection for passive investing — and the lack of concern for risk that he infers from it — hints at an approaching top, as does the evidence of history.

“Generally, the times when index investing reaches the highest popularity are in aging bull markets or near market peaks,” he says.

Thursday, January 1, 2015

Social Security disability rolls are growing annually 9.1% more on average under Obama than under Bush

The average annual addition to the disability rolls under Bush, who added 2.7 million over eight years, was 342,000. Under Obama, who has added 1.9 million over five years through 2013, the average annual addition has been 373,000. The current program total is 12.156 million through 2013. If the 2014 addition rate is similar to the immediate past, the program total is probably close to 12.5 million as of December 31st.

The latest statistical report for the program, released in December, may be viewed here.

Figures cited above are derived from Table 1, page 17, disabled beneficiaries and their non-disabled dependents. Table 66 figures are higher and include the disabled aged 18-64 who also get Social Security and/or Supplemental Security Income, the average cost for all of which in 2013 came to $161 billion. 

Total stock market capitalization through 12/31/14 is $26.004 trillion

Wilshire 5000 level X 1.2