Thursday, January 1, 2015

Updated: Global middle class hits one billion in 2014, but has actually declined since 2010

So reported the Times of India here in October:

Credit Suisse's Global Wealth Report 2014 released on Tuesday says that there are one billion adults at present who belong to the middle class - with wealth anywhere between $10,000-$100,000 range.

The Global Wealth Report 2014 itself may be viewed here, from which the pyramid at the left.

Notice the relatively small size of the global middle class, just 21.5% of the world's adults, with the vast majority of these coming first from China, and then second from the Asia-Pacific region, followed by Europe, Latin America and North America in that order, according to the details on pages 24ff.

Update: The inaugural Global Wealth Report in 2010 here actually showed a LARGER global middle class adult population of 1.045 billion then vs. the 1.01 billion today, a 3.3% decline. As a percentage of the world's adult population, the middle class share also has declined, from 23.5% of all adults in 2010 to 21.5% in 2014, a decline of 8.5%.

22 States and DC raise minimum wage this year: Expect teen employment to remain in depression or decline further

Teen employment levels today at 4.6 million are still 2.9 million below their 2006 peak of almost 7.5 million.

This is not just an artifact of the 2008 Panic.

The Federal minimum wage was increased nearly 41% over three years beginning before the panic began, from $5.15 to $5.85 in July 2007, to $6.55 in July 2008, and to $7.25 in July 2009. It is noteworthy that teen employment suffered almost immediately with the first increase in 2007, not reachieving the 2006 peak teen employment level in July of 2007 even as full-time employment hit an all-time record high. Teen employment continued to decline each summer through 2011 before stabilizing at the new low level, averaging about 4.4 million now vs. about 5.9 million previously. Raising the minimum wage has effectively sidelined 1.5 million teenagers permanently.

Raising the minimum wage now in 45% of the country only means inexperienced people like teenagers will find it even more difficult to find that first job going forward.

This is not free-market economics. It is crony capitalism which redistributes income to low-wage-earning adults at the expense of the young.

Call it part of the liberal war on children. Hey, if you forgot to abort 'em, impoverish them!

Healthcare spending through three quarters of 2014 has been only average

Healthcare spending through three quarters of 2014 has been only average, despite what you may have heard about a government conspiracy trying to hide massive spending for political reasons.

Healthcare spending's contribution to GDP in 1Q was -0.16, in 2Q +0.45, and in 3Q +0.52, for an average of three final quarterly reports of healthcare spending on an annualized basis totaling just +0.27 in 2014.

This number is completely within the historical norm for the previous four years, 2010 through 2013, when we had positive contributions of 0.15, 0.28, 0.37 and 0.24, averaging 0.26.

Expect to hear alarm bells sounded again if the 4Q number is high in the first estimate at the end of this month, but you should ignore them. The only proper comparison is with the third and final revision, for which we will have to wait until the end of March 2015.

That's just the way it is.