SPX is up 5.42% ytd
WTI is up about 78% ytd
Sunday, May 3, 2026
JMIC Update 40 for tanker traffic in the Middle East April 26-May 2, 2026
Middle East Tanker Traffic April 26-May 2, 2026
Strait of Hormuz E: 1.85/day
Strait of Hormuz W: 1.28/day
Total: 3.13/day
Normal (2022): 70/day
Down 95.5%
Bab-el-Mandeb Strait SE: 7.0/day
Bab-el-Mandeb Strait NW: 7.42/day
Total: 14.42/day
Normal (2022): 30/day
Down 51.9%
Back when America was still truly great, in July 1973, a barrel of oil was just 26 bucks
What?!
A barrel of oil in July 1973 at $3.56 is $26.54 in March 2026 adjusted for inflation.
I keep hearing that Baby Boomers are just sucking this world dry. Keep telling yourselves that, suckers.
Ty Cobb: We're governed by a madman
https://inews.co.uk/news/world/donald-trumps-lawyer-mental-state-unfit-serve-4378218
https://archive.is/uceDe
Christopher Caldwell for The New York Times thinks the American Empire has met its match in the Persian Gulf when it already met it a year ago in the Red Sea
... the United States lacks the military means to impose its will on Iran in a long conflict. In 1991 a million soldiers from more than 40 countries were needed to reverse the invasion of Kuwait carried out by Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, a country less sophisticated than Iran and a fraction of its size. When Iran and Iraq fought each other to a standstill in the 1980s, deaths ran into the hundreds of thousands on each side. The United States would have to send a significant portion of its armed forces — which total only 1.3 million troops — to stand a chance of subduing Iran, and that force, if successful, would have to stay for a long time. ...
Here.
Caldwell is just as blind as Trump.
Neither one gets it that the lowly Houthis already beat us to a draw last year in the Red Sea.
Nothing is moving out of the Persian Gulf today, and tanker traffic through the Red Sea is less than half what it used to be in 2022, even under the new conditions of a world desperately thirsty for the Middle East oil no longer coming out of the former.
And neither one gets it that you can't have an American Empire without paying for it.
We're $39 trillion in debt and can no longer impose our will in the world's vital choke-points because elites have pretended since Reagan that low marginal income tax rates are sufficient to maintain American Empire when what those rates have done is impoverish us and enrich our adversaries.
1,135 billionaires are the symbol of our lost empire.
Caldwell steers well clear of naming the obvious remedy, and Trump's Big Ugly Bill will do nothing but put America $62 trillion in debt by the end of 2032.
Taxes must be raised . . . a lot.
Saturday, May 2, 2026
Why I'm not very interested in the redistricting hullabaloo pre- and post- the Supreme Court decision
I view fixed representation at 435 as a crime against the Founders and a crime against the people, and all the recent developments involving this subject simply rearrange the deck chairs on the Titanic.
Representation was meant to grow with population, and Republicans stopped that in 1929.
Political power is now more concentrated in fewer hands than ever, resulting in sharply more polarized politics where more is riding than ever before on the outcome of U.S. House elections.
Anti-federalists sought representation at 1:15,000 of population. An early compromise settled on 1:30,000, which grew to 1:50,000 but was never ratified in Article The First.
At this moment in time we have representation at 1:787,290 thanks to the Republicans in 1929.
Now your congressman doesn't know you from Adam, and couldn't care less what you think. Write him or her about an issue, and you'll get a nice form letter back thanking you for writing if you're nice. If you're not nice you will not hear back from your lords and masters.
6,849 U.S. representatives is unimaginable to most people today, let alone 11,415 or 22,831.
The problem is 435 for a country this size would be unimaginable to the Founders.
Friday, May 1, 2026
Trump steaks, Trump wine, Trump gold visa
Trump’s ‘bargain’ $1m Gold Card backfires with just 338 applications
... The Trump Gold Card, which offers purchasers an expedited route to American residency, was unveiled with great fanfare in February 2025. ...
Dirty Rotten CEOs in the news
... The average CEO received $8.4m in total compensation in 2025 compared to $7.6m in 2024. ...
For 384 CEOs in the S&P 500 where CEO compensation data was
available, pay increased by 25% from 2024 to 2025, while average hourly
earnings for workers at private companies increased 1.3% in the same
period. ...
Mark Davis is running for FL-16 on 8647 lol
... Mark Davis, an unaffiliated candidate running in Florida’s 16th
district, drives around with an “8647” license plate, wears an “86 47”
hat, and sells hats and a t-shirt featuring the numbers on his
campaign’s website. ... Davis has been using “86 47” to express his disdain for Trump since he
announced his campaign for the House of Representatives last year. ... Davis is not the only one who has been selling “86 47” merchandise. On
Amazon, hundreds of t-shirts with variations of the numbers are
available for as little as $10. Other websites, such as Redbubble and
Etsy, sell stickers, hats, posters and other variations of “86 47.” ...
On day 60 Lizard Brain turns off the war as of April 7 to restart the 60-day clock again later whenever he wants
Trump tells Congress hostilities in Iran ‘have terminated’ as War Powers deadline hits
... “The hostilities that began on February 28, 2026, have terminated,” Trump wrote. ...
Thursday, April 30, 2026
JMIC Update 39 for tanker traffic in the Middle East April 23-29, 2026
Middle East Tanker Traffic April 23-29, 2026
Strait of Hormuz E: 2.14/day
Strait of Hormuz W: 0.28/day
Total: 2.42/day
Normal (2022): 70/day
Down 96.5%
Bab-el-Mandeb Strait SE: 6.57/day
Bab-el-Mandeb Strait NW: 7.71/day
Total: 14.28/day
Normal (2022): 30/day
Down 52.4%
Real GDP for 1Q2026 was reported today at 2.0% seasonally adjusted annual rate, and it continues to underperform both the Reagan era and the post-war era
It's a long way down from 8.1% in 1Q1984 to 2.0% in 1Q2026.
GDPC1 compound annual growth rates:
Trump era to now 1Q2017-1Q2026: 2.476%
Mid-Reagan era to Trump 1Q1984-1Q2017: 2.707%
Post-war to Reagan 1Q1947-1Q1984: 3.585%
Trump underperforms the post-war by 31% . . . and Reagan by 9%. MAGA is purely aspirational.
Reagan to Trump underperformed the post-war by 24%.
The compound annual growth rate of real GDP from Reagan to now is 2.657%, underperforming the post-war by 26%.
This is why the kids don't have full-time jobs, kids of their own, and homes to raise them in.
 |
| trend for percent change for real dollars |
 |
| trend for percent change for the rate |
Core pce inflation is raging at 3.2% year over year in March, 109% above normal, and the Congress, the president, and the Fed are doing ZERO, ZIP, NADA about it
The Fed met YESTERDAY and left the federal funds rate unchanged even though this is their primary indicator of inflation and it is more than double the average rate post-Great Recession.
There were just three votes with the temerity to suggest that inflation might be a problem right now.
But SPX is up! one half of one percent at this hour, threatening to make another all time high. That's all that matters!
None of them give a shit about YOU!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)