Sunday, December 28, 2025

One silver observer found someone projecting silver going as high as $1,400 lol

$1,400 silver seems absolutely ludicrous to me, but maybe not $300 silver.

The Coinage Act of 1792 fixed the ratio of silver to gold at 15:1. Gold then was $19.39 and silver was $1.29.

The Coinage Act of 1873 effectively ended this bimetallism in the United States in favor of gold but was not widely understood to have done so until after the fact. By 1913 silver averaged about only sixty cents, for various reasons, and the silver to gold ratio went to about 34:1. 

Gold at $4,533 on Friday implies silver at $302 at the 15:1 ratio, but silver is actually only about $80. Divided by 34, however, the implied silver price is about $133. The ratio at about $80 is 57:1.

The main driver of the silver price in our time is industrial, but the ratio is instructive for contextualizing, as the kids say, its relative value.

 


 

 

Saturday, December 27, 2025

Pirates doing piratety things shouldn't be surprised when others do unto us as we have done unto them, and they will


 

Three in four Americans say groceries are so expensive they’ve been forced to cut down on entertainment, travel, clothing, and food and drink away from home


 

 Reported here.

So, what do those of us cut, who long ago completely cut out entertainment, travel, food and drink away from home, and mend the clothes we cannot replace?

Drink period, for starters:

THE alcohol industry has faced financial hardship in 2025, leading to several distilleries filing for bankruptcy as Americans are drinking at the lowest levels in history. ... An August poll conducted by Gallup found that 54% of adults say they consume alcohol, which was down from 58% in 2024 and 62% in 2023. Gallup said the 54% finding is “the lowest by one percentage point in Gallup’s nearly 90-year trend.” ... Gallup found that 53% of Americans said having one or two drinks a day is bad for one’s health, while 37% say it makes no difference and 6% say it’s good for one’s health. ...

More



 

 

Bankruptcies in 2025 surge to a level not seen since 2010

 

Corporate bankruptcies surged in 2025, rivaling levels not seen since the immediate aftermath of the Great Recession, as import-dependent businesses absorbed the highest tariffs in decades.

At least 717 companies filed for bankruptcy through November, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence. That’s roughly 14 percent more than the same 11 months of 2024, and the highest tally since 2010. ...

More

Trump likes to trumpet the billion$ he's collecting in tariffs, but there is no single report which calculates the hundreds of billion$ these bankruptcies must cost the economy over time. 

Friday, December 26, 2025

Liberal democracy must solve the problems of Gen Z globally, which works a lot but stays poor, or it will perish

 Crushed by soaring rents and living costs and staring down a future where robots and AI threaten their jobs, Gen Z is unleashing a wave of protests that is rattling governments worldwide. ...

More

You know where

 

Kelce's emotional night at ARROWHEAD may be his last with retirement looming...

Where does Taylor Swift go from here?




Speaking of bomb magnets

 

 
 

 

Thursday, December 25, 2025

Unbelievably rosy GDP report contained core pce inflation data at 2.9% countering previous rosy core cpi inflation report at 2.6% and indicating rising inflation

 

The U.S. economy grew at a much greater-than-expected pace in the third quarter, boosted by strong consumer spending, a delayed report released Tuesday showed.

U.S. gross domestic product, a sum of all goods and services produced in the sprawling U.S. economy, expanded by 4.3% in the July-September period, the Commerce Department said in its initial reading of third-quarter growth. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect a gain of 3.2%.  ...
 
The economy moved forward during the period despite persistent signs of inflation pressures.

The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s primary inflation gauge, rose 2.8% during the period, and 2.9% for core which excludes food and energy. Both were above prior respective readings of 2.1% and 2.6% and remain well above the Fed’s 2% inflation gauge. Also, the chain-weighted price index, which accounts for changes in consumer behavior such as switching to less expensive products for pricier items, rose 3.8%, a full percentage point above the forecast. ...


 As for the GDP report, even if you accept the rosy number as reported, it remains that . . .

Trump's real GDP since 2017 is growing at a compound annual rate which is 5% lower than the rate for 1984-2017; and
 
Trump's GDP since 2017 is growing at a compound annual rate 21% lower than the rate for 1947-2017.
 
Meanwhile GDP since 1984 is growing at a compound annual rate which is 28% lower than for 1947-1984.
 
And GDP since the Great Recession in 2007 is growing at a compound annual rate 42% lower than for 1947-2007.
 
The results of the era inaugurated by Reagan have been devastating. Real GDP today would be much higher had the previous long term trend continued.
 
3Q1984 Reagan real GDP of 8252.46 at the pre-Reagan rate of compound annual growth since 1947 would be 36213.94 today instead of 24024.95, 50% higher.
 
The Trump era is doubling down on stupid, not breaking with it. It is guaranteed to get us nowhere, faster.

It's completely crazy that an entry level ice cream scooper in Brooklyn, New York earns almost as much as an entry level small engine mechanic

 Fifty cents an hour less.

It's as if the weight of wealth accumulation by the top 10% has squished and compressed those beneath them into one giant, undifferentiated blob scooping ice cream alongside this woman.

31-year-old scoops ice cream on the side for $16.50/hour to make ends meet in this job market: ‘There is zero shame in it’

... When I started working at Lady Moo Moo in Bed-Stuy, I found myself surrounded by people who, like me, had already built careers and are now navigating an unpredictable job market. Some had been laid off just as I had. Others, like my colleague who is a sex educator and public health advocate, lost funding in their fields. A few are juggling multiple part-time roles to stay afloat.  ... Every shift, I met people who never imagined they would be picking up part-time work: artists, teachers, nonprofit workers, tech employees, museum curators, and neighbors doing their best to make life work in a difficult economy. ...

 


 

 

A Christmas of silver and gold


 

... Spot gold was down 0.4% at $4,468.96 per ounce, after marking a record high ‌of $4,525.18 ‌earlier in the session. ...

Silver prices have surged 147% year-to-date on strong fundamentals, outpacing bullion’s gain of over 70% ‍during the same period. ...

Silver hit an all-time high of $72.70 but was last down 0.8% ‍at $70.86 an ounce. ...

More.


 

 

Tuesday, December 23, 2025

Not with my money dammit

 $3,000 to Illegal Immigrants If They Self-Deport by December 31

Because we can't build them ourselves

 

 
Manufacturing capacity utilization was down in November, a pale reflection of its former self before globalization.
 
Same with manufacturing employment.
 
Manufacturing production was barely up in November and is effectively flat since the Great Recession, before which it was still rising.
 
Trump stupidly thinks tariffs can reverse all this, when you're supposed to use tariffs to protect what you have, not what you don't.
 




 

Spot gold new record high nominal price $4,497.55, silver $69.98

 CNBC here.

Monday, December 22, 2025

Stories like this about China destroying the U.S. Dollar just make me want to howl

But hey, what do you expect from MarketWatch?

... As more commodities get priced in yuan instead of dollars, demand for dollars softens. As central banks diversify into gold, they buy fewer Treasurys. As fewer foreigners buy U.S. debt, interest rates drift higher. As the dollar’s purchasing power erodes, everything you import costs more. ...

This, like most of the story, is a load of BS.

Global demand for U.S. debt is at an ALL TIME HIGH, a record $9.2 trillion in the last three months through October.

You'll know the yuan has replaced the dollar when the world buys Chinese sovereign debt instead of ours. And right now the world owns less than $300 billion of Chinese sovereign debt, billion with a B, not trillion with a T.

Nobody trusts China like they trust us. 

The writer, who owns gold and silver, wants you to dump long term bonds and buy short term bills and . . . gold and silver. Gee, what a coincidence. 

Meanwhile foreign governments continue to prefer long term U.S. Treasuries and own relatively few bills.

And the dollar is relatively strong, not weak as the writer says, in November 2025. 


click to enlarge

 

Democrat minority leader in the House Hakeem Jeffries imitates Nancy Pelosi in sabotage of Congressional stock trading ban legislation

 Once again the most progressive Democrat elites, who pushed out Joe Biden, prove that they are not on the side of the people.

Gold and silver smash nominal price records to start Christmas week 2025: Gold to $4,426.66 and silver to $69.44



Good morning to everyone who is not a member of Congress

 The median net worth of an American household in 2023 was less than $200,000.

The median net worth of a current member of the U.S. Congress is $1,000,000. 


 

Sunday, December 21, 2025

Populist taxes to match Trump's populist rhetoric

 The original personal exemption from the income tax was $3,000 in 1913. The equivalent of that in September 2025 is $97,440.

For married filing jointly the personal exemption was $4,000 in 1913. The equivalent of that in September 2025 is $129,920. 

This personal exemption, which Trump eliminated in 2018, should be reinstated, and indexed to inflation in this way from here on out, and this income should be entirely federal-tax-free, except of course for Social Security taxes, Medicare taxes, and state and local taxes.

About 83% of individual wage earners made $97k or less in 2023.

That's what actual populist taxation would look like.

Remember, the roughly top 20% would not pay taxes on their first $97k either, so they would be just like everybody else in respect of basic income. If they can't live on that, then neither can we.

Standard deductions and/or itemized deductions for the top 20% are for the debates over the rates they should pay progressively, and should be a moot point for the majority because the majority wouldn't be paying federal taxes anyway. 

Corporate income taxes and capital gains taxes muddy these waters, but those taxes were originally placed on Wall Street fat cats at a time when farmers all across this land faced punitive taxes on property which the Wall Streeters did not. Corporate income and capital gains taxes were meant to address that inequity.

The income tax was subsequently added, on the rich obviously, in part because those other taxes didn't really work to address the inequity. But now we have this Rube Goldberg machine of taxation which Trump has merely tweaked again but is not fundamentally reformed.

The fact is that today we still have horrible tax inequity where some income is more equal than others, with much lower tax rates on capital gains held more than one year.

This overwhelmingly benefits the top 20% by wealth, who own about 90% of the stock market's value*. The owners of this wealth routinely take their income from this source, not from W-2 income, but they are taxed at much lower long term capital gains tax rates of 0%, 15%, and 20%.

the top 20% of households as measured by income own about 87% of directly-held equities

-- Michael Hiltzik, here 

Let's compare a person's taxes on next year's income of $97,000 under the Big Ugly Bill's ordinary income tax rates versus the capital gains tax rates.

Starting in 2026, a single filer will get a standard deduction of $16,100. If he makes $97,000 next year in ordinary income, his taxable income will be $80,900 and his federal income tax will be $12,510 ($5,800 plus 22% of the amount over $50,400). The effective tax rate is 12.89% on $97,000.

The same filer without W-2 income but with $97,000 of long term capital gains income instead comes out way ahead. His taxable income is the same because his standard deduction is the same: $80,900. However, on the first $49,450 of taxable income he pays 0% capital gains tax because he held it longer than one year. The remaining $31,450 is taxed at just 15%, which is $4,717.50. The effective tax rate is 4.86%, not 12.89%! That's 62% lower.

If we treated all income from every source the same way and taxed accordingly, the playing field would be more level.

If the people are taxed at ordinary income tax rates, arguably all entities should be. Corporations are people, they tell us, so there should be no story ever again about a profitable company escaping federal taxation in this country.

But Tesla and Meta, for example, paid no tax in 2023. About 25% of companies don't on average. 

As for individuals, the data about how many escape taxation is harder to come by, but an estimated 90,000 households making $200k or more in 2022 escaped taxation legally, and about 3,200 individuals making $1 million or more paid no federal tax.

There is nothing populist about a system which treats the income of rich people worthy of a privilege the income of the rest of us is not. 

This is perfect: The culture editor of The Bulwark has no idea where culture comes from and couldn't care less

 He's a commie.