So says Aristotle in the Politics.
And Medvedev has Obama's back.
Monday, September 17, 2012
Housing Values Gained Most Under Clinton, Lost Most Under Obama Since WWII
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| "I honor you. I do!" |
The following shows the percentage gain or loss in the Case Shiller Home Price Index values December over December for the presidents since WWII, ranked best to worst.
The overall gain or loss is calculated from the December of the election year to the December of the year leaving office, which then is divided by either 4 years or 8 years to arrive at an annualized score. In the case of Obama performance is calculated over 3.5 years (through June 2012).
Factoring out the housing bubble which built under Clinton and collapsed under Bush/Obama would give best performance to Reagan and worst to Bush The Elder, but it is what it is. Slick Willie rides again!
Clinton +2.22 percent
Reagan +1.43 percent
Carter +1.28 percent
Truman + .92 percent
Bush The Younger + .87 percent
Eisenhower + .78 percent
Nixon/Ford + .05 percent
JFK/LBJ - .57 percent
Bush The Elder - 2.72 percent
Obama -3.69 percent
Sunday, September 16, 2012
Case-Shiller Home Price Index Updated For 2012 At Multpl.com: Dead Cat Bounce
The Case-Shiller Home Price Index at multpl.com has been updated for Q1 and Q2 2012, showing the housing nadir at 124 in March 2012, from which as of the end of June the increase is 6.8 percent to 133.
See the chart and tables here.
I don't believe it is anything but a dead cat bounce, which may indeed go higher because of QE3, but it is not the sign of a fundamental change like the one which occurred in 1997, nor for that matter like the one in the immediate aftermath of WWII. Housing values remain in the high range of historical post-war experience and need to fall further.
Obama has had no commitment to fixing housing, playing around the edges of the issue, and Romney plans to do nothing but let the market fix it, which is probably the best thing to do, as long as he doesn't fiddle with current tax arrangements affecting housing.
The tax changes introduced in 1997 need to find their equilibrium without more interference. The federal government needs to firmly express its commitment to all current tax arrangements affecting housing, including the mortgage interest deduction, in order to calm the housing market and give homeowners, buyers, sellers and financiers the confidence to move forward on a solid basis.
Markets hate uncertainty about rules!
US Gross Public Debt Grew Most Under Reagan, Least Under Truman Since WWII
The record of Ronald Reagan for increasing the US gross public debt is so bad in the post-war era it is a veritable outlier compared to everyone else.
It represents the price this country paid for hefty tax cuts at the same time defense spending was increased to defeat the Soviet Union in the Cold War. Conservatism as understood by Ronald Reagan was primarily anti-communist, not fiscal. This is more in keeping with the Democrat Party of the time which he abandoned as communist influence over it grew through the labor unions. Along with the rest of his record, it is arguable that Ronald Reagan out-liberaled the liberals in many respects, making the Republican Party the home of liberals while the Democrat Party got radicalized by the so-called progressives.
Maybe Mitt Romney had a good reason not to think of himself as a follower of Reagan back in the 1990s. This country could use a Republican in the mold of Eisenhower again to restore some credibility to the Republican Party from the fiscal side.
The 170 percent increase in the public debt metric over an 8 year period under Reagan makes his predecessor Jimmy Carter look almost moderate by comparison, who racked up a 40 percent increase in 4. And Bush The Younger was actually in the very mold of fiscally liberal Ronald Reagan, cutting Clinton's tax increases and increasing spending on The War On Terror as well as Drugs For Seniors. Bush The Younger's 99 percent increase in the debt over 8 years comes out to roughly 12.38 percent per year, but it must be remembered that some of Obama's emergency spending in early 2009 became part of Bush's fiscal record, which ended October 31, 2009, another price of electoral defeat. The winners write the history.
Harry Truman narrowly beats out his successor Dwight Eisenhower for being the king of fiscal rectitude, posting an 11 percent increase in the debt in 4 years with Ike logging 23 percent over 8 years.
The numbers on which I relied for the following come from usgovernmentdebt.us, but not for Barack Obama, for whom I relied on the very latest figures available from treasurydirect.gov, which regrettably go back only through 1993. The percentage average annual increase in the debt shown below is for illustration purposes only since the percentage increase in the debt is calculated from beginning of the fiscal period to the end, not for each individual year. Multiply by 4 or 8 to get the actual figure for the term of office (but shown values are rounded, and Obama's record will not be complete until October 31, 2013, over a year from now, in which case multiply by 3).
Reagan 21.25 percent
Bush The Younger 12.38 percent
Nixon/Ford 11.75 percent
Obama 11.64 percentBush The Elder 11.50 percent
Carter 10.00 percent
Clinton 4.50 percent
Kennedy/LBJ 4.38 percent
Eisenhower 2.88 percent
Truman 2.75 percent
Over time, Republican presidents have averaged a 12 percent annual increase in the debt while in office, while Democrat presidents have averaged almost 6 percent per annum.
Neither record is good, but things are not what they seem in the Republican Party, so-called home of the fiscal conservatives.
Inflation Was Worst Under Carter, Best Under Eisenhower Since WWII
1948-1952 Truman 2.65 percent
1952-1960 Eisenhower 1.4 percent
1960-1968 Kennedy/LBJ 2.2 percent
1968-1976 Nixon/Ford 6.4 percent
1976-1980 Carter 10.4 percent
1980-1988 Reagan 4.3 percent
1988-1992 Bush The Elder 4.2 percent
1992-2000 Clinton 2.6 percent
2000-2008 Bush The Younger 2.4 percent
2008-2012 Obama 2.2 percent.
Democrat presidents do slightly better on inflation than do Republican: 3.55 percent per annum vs. 3.69 percent, which is about 3.8 percent better on average.
But this isn't saying much, except that when it comes to your money, there's hardly a dime's worth of difference between the two political parties. Both have agreed on policies to trash the buying power of the dollar. That's the real enemy: the liberal consensus to impoverish the people through monetarism.
On average, post-war presidents have done a terrible job managing inflation, which is up 841 percent in the 64 years between 1948 and 2012. You might even say that inflation is their policy. By contrast, inflation jumped 146 percent in the 35 years between 1913 and 1948. The post-war liberal consensus has been nearly 6 times harder on the American people than the prior period.
Both parties need to be neutered.
But this isn't saying much, except that when it comes to your money, there's hardly a dime's worth of difference between the two political parties. Both have agreed on policies to trash the buying power of the dollar. That's the real enemy: the liberal consensus to impoverish the people through monetarism.
On average, post-war presidents have done a terrible job managing inflation, which is up 841 percent in the 64 years between 1948 and 2012. You might even say that inflation is their policy. By contrast, inflation jumped 146 percent in the 35 years between 1913 and 1948. The post-war liberal consensus has been nearly 6 times harder on the American people than the prior period.
Both parties need to be neutered.
Saturday, September 15, 2012
Obama Ranks Worst For GDP, Kennedy/LBJ Best Since World War II
Average of quarterly reports of annualized GDP, November on November (Obama to date):
1948-1952 Truman 4.9 percent
1952-1960 Eisenhower 3.2 percent
1960-1968 Kennedy/LBJ 5.0 percent
1968-1976 Nixon/Ford 3.1 percent
1976-1980 Carter 3.0 percent
1980-1988 Reagan 3.6 percent
1988-1992 Bush The Elder 2.2 percent
1992-2000 Clinton 3.9 percent
2000-2008 Bush The Younger 2.0 percent
2008-2012 Obama 0.8 percent
Obama Ranks Fourth Best For Stock Market Since WWII, George W. Bush Worst
November on November of term (Obama to last data available), dividends reinvested in the Standard and Poor's 500 Index, adjusted for inflation, annual rates of return:
1948--1952 Harry S. Truman 17.84 percent
1992--2000 Bill Clinton 15.27 percent
1952--1960 Eisenhower 13.54 percent
2008--2012 Barack Obama 12.66 percent
1988--1992 Bush The Elder 10.76 percent
1960--1968 Kennedy/LBJ 9.40 percent
1980--1988 Ronald Reagan 8.98 percent
1976--1980 Jimmy Carter 2.60 percent
1968--1976 Nixon/Ford -3.09 percent
2000--2008 Bush The Younger -6.12 percent.
"Obama Economic Agenda Failed Not Because It Was Stopped But Because It Was Passed"
Rep. Paul Ryan, here, throws us some red meat:
"It is true that President Obama, he had a lot of problems not of his own making. But he also came in with one-party rule and the chance to do everything of his own choosing. The Obama economic agenda failed not because it was stopped, but because it was passed."
Friday, September 14, 2012
Republicans Vote To Continue Spying On Americans, Trashing Fourth Amendment
Wired.com has the story here.
The so-called conservatives, Republicans on Wednesday voted once again to subvert the constitutional principles for which they forever protest they stand.
Why is it that the loudest yelps for the constitution are heard from the chief abusers of the Fourth Amendment?
Thursday, September 13, 2012
What The Greatest Generation Has Done: Eaten Their Own Children, Modeling Abortion
The old impoverish us all with high taxes in the form of Social Security and Medicare. Last time I checked, the average senior citizen in the good ole USA gets a transfer payment of $30,000 annually.
If you made $100K a year for 40 years in a working life, WHICH YOU DIDN'T!, and if you paid 6.25 percent per year in said taxes, WHICH YOU DIDN'T, you would have contributed $250K, BUT YOU DIDN'T, it would take just 8 years in retirement at $30K per year to eat it all up. WHICH YOU WILL, AND A WHOLE LOT MORE. This is why Gov. Rick Perry of Texas called Social Security a giant Ponzi scheme. WHICH ANY IDIOT FROM A FREAKING COW COLLEGE COULD FIGURE OUT, EVEN WITH A FREAKING C AVERAGE.
They take all this money and go golfing, traveling to exotic locales, vacationing in lavish time shares on which they lose a bundle, getting knee replacements, hip replacements, coronary bypass surgery, cataract surgery, yada yada yada, generally enriching themselves at our expense all the while promoting the notion that they're the greatest while we can't afford even to have children of our own, whom we abort with their encouragement.
Consider this story:
In August, according to the Social Security Administration, there were a record 8,767,941 American workers collecting federal disability payments, and also 2,018,569 spouses and children of disabled workers collecting benefits. Additionally, in August, there were a record 45,505,287 retired workers, their spouses and dependents receiving Social Security benefits.
That made for a record 56,291,797 people in the United States in August taking Social Security or disability benefits. That was up from the previous record of 56,188,736 set in July.
Obama's Best Unemployment Number Ever: Initial Claims At 297K
Initial claims for unemployment, not-seasonally adjusted, has fallen below 300,000 for the first time ever in the Obama presidency.
Obama should be crowing this from the rooftops, but apparently his administration is too stupid to understand the significance, or it views this as bad news in the broader mission to destroy the middle class on the way to a transformed America. He has now racked up 7 weeks in a row below 320K.
Elsewhere Rick Santelli has predicted unemployment at 7.9 percent by election day. He doesn't know how right he is.
The latest weekly report is here.
Wednesday, September 12, 2012
Obama Bungles Mideast Worse Than Jimmy Carter In 1979, Gets Ambassador Killed
Hot Air, here, has that old weird feelin':
Once again, we had an American government encourage the “democracy” movement run by radical Islamists in chasing our ally out of power. Once again, we seem surprised when the radical Islamists put radical Islamists in power. And once again we have “students” assaulting our embassy in the capital, this time Cairo, without so much as an apology from the radical Islamist government now running the nation. ...
Slum Lord Obama: Lower Class Self-Identification Grows 28 Percent Since 2008
Story here.
Is Obama intentionally impoverishing the middle class as a means to overthrow the constitutional republic? You don't have to be a Marxist to think so.
"When there is a want of a proper number of men of middling fortune, the poor extend their power too far, abuses arise, and the government is soon at an end." -- Aristotle's Politics
Is Obama intentionally impoverishing the middle class as a means to overthrow the constitutional republic? You don't have to be a Marxist to think so.
"When there is a want of a proper number of men of middling fortune, the poor extend their power too far, abuses arise, and the government is soon at an end." -- Aristotle's Politics
As McCain Failed To Seize On TARP, Romney Is Failing To Seize On ObamaCare
Conservatives all across this country were revolted by the very thought of TARP, which became the focal point of the financial crisis in September 2008. John McCain suspended his campaign to go to Washington to . . . vote for it. He was already finished, there and then.
The reaction to the passage of ObamaCare in March 2010 among those same conservatives galvanized the mid-term elections in November 2010, giving Republicans an historic victory in the US House. It should give them the White House now. But Mitt Romney hasn't just failed to ride that wave, in recent days he's decided to join the busted trumpet club and openly broadcast agreement with key elements of ObamaCare, a bill a clear majority of voters have opposed from the beginning. He is already finished, and threatens to finish conservatives who are depending on his coattails. Romney won't have any.
It's as if Republicans don't want to win.
"For if the trumpet give an uncertain sound, who shall prepare himself to the battle?"
Tuesday, September 11, 2012
Mitt The Mendacious Comes Out For Key Provisions Of ObamaCare
Quoted in the Tampa Bay Times, here:
"I'm not getting rid of all of health care reform," Romney said. "There are a number of things that I like in health care reform that I'm going to put in place. One is to make sure that those with pre-existing conditions can get coverage. Two is to assure that the marketplace allows for individuals to have policies that cover their family up to whatever age they might like. I also want individuals to be able to buy insurance, health insurance, on their own as opposed to only being able to get it on a tax-advantage basis through their company."
These positions represent government interference in the private and free market for health insurance, and therefore will drive up costs for everyone, not to mention making not growing up already an even bigger problem than it already is.
Mitt Romney doesn't have a limited government bone in his body.
Romney Is Blowing It On ObamaCare, And With It Blowing The Election
So should warn The Weekly Standard here, which thinks Romney still has time to fix this (hope springs eternal), but he doesn't:
[I]ndependents now oppose repeal by a margin of 9 percentage points (52 to 43 percent). By a 7-point margin they now think Obamacare is good, rather than bad, for the country. That's a 28-point swing on repeal, and a 34-point swing on whether Obamacare would be good or bad for the country, in just two months—among the voting block that will likely decide this election.
Rep. Michele Bachmann tried to warn Republicans during the primaries that repeal of ObamaCare was the sine qua non in this election, but the Republicans didn't listen. They picked the worst candidate on the issue, mostly because they didn't really have a convincing candidate on the most important issue, or on any issue.
The Republican Party is devoid of conservatives with gravitas on ObamaCare, or on anything else for that matter. In point of fact, the The Republican Party is devoid of conservatives.
Thanks Greatest Generation! Thanks Heritage Foundation! Thanks Ann Coulter! Thanks Sean Hannity! Thanks R. Emmett Tyrrell Jr! Thanks Fox! Thanks Savage Nation! Thanks RNC! Thanks Wall Street Journal! Thanks Drudge! Thanks Newt! Thanks Ronald Reagan!
Thanks to you all for whom Party comes before principle.
You've all done a wonderful job! How can we ever thank you enough for Thomas E. Dewey redivivus?
Moments later, as the discussion over Romneycare and Obamacare continued, Romney rebuked Santorum, saying, “First of all, it's not worth getting angry about.”
Moments later, as the discussion over Romneycare and Obamacare continued, Romney rebuked Santorum, saying, “First of all, it's not worth getting angry about.”
America's Current Asset Allocation
Approximately $37 trillion to bonds (year end 2011): 54 percent.
Approximately $21 trillion to stocks (April 2012): 31 percent.
Approximately $10 trillion to cash (August 2012): 15 percent.
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