I mean, that's true right?
We are in week 8, and the two week ceasefire which expires tomorrow has been extended indefinitely because Trump says Iran is too divided to speak with a unified voice.
The truth is whatever Humpty Trumpty says it is.
Tuesday, April 21, 2026
Buffett Indicator in the news
Wall Street on red alert as Warren Buffett’s favorite stock market gauge hits the worst reading EVER
... The so-called Buffett indicator divides the total value of all US stocks by the total economic output of the United States, delivering one simple number that sums up how investors are feeling at the moment.
Buffett said that a reading of 100 percent suggests markets are in balance - in other words, the stock market is worth about as much as the US economy produces in one year - while a lower figure means stocks are undervalued.
Right now, the index hit its highest reading ever - 232 percent - indicating that stocks are historically overvalued. ...
Right now, the indicator is well above its last two all-time highs: The 219 percent reading seen at the height of the 2021 pandemic stock market frenzy, and the 163 percent level at the 2000 peak of the dot com bubble. ...
Using SPX tonight, instead of the Wilshire 5000 as Buffett does, we're at 224.8 vs. 1938-2019 mean level of 81!
The market has been obscenely overvalued way beyond the 1938-2019 experience for six consecutive years and counting, and investors keep keeping it that way by continuing to pour money into it. It won't unwind until they stop. And since they believe that the market goes only up, it will probably take a market-loathing mother of all economic disasters to change their minds and make them do so.
Meanwhile real return since August 2000 (139), the previous secular peak, is now 5.27% per annum through March 2026 (25 years, 7 months).
Real return from January 1975 to August 2000 (the previous 25 years, 7 months) was 11.19% per annum, 112% better because valuation was 61 in 1975 and falling.
Investing at high valuations by definition produces poorer results. Compare August 1965 (118) to August 2000 (139): 6.95% per annum real.
(I need to update this chart for 2024 and 2025!)
JMIC Update 035 for the Middle East maritime region is confusing
The data boxes cover April 14-20 but are entitled April 12-18.
And what is "2BAM Total" lol? Only The Sweet know for sure.
Anyway tankers exiting the Strait of Hormuz E now average 3/day April 19-20 vs. 2/day in the previous five day period. Big whoop.
Tanker traffic in and out of the Red Sea through the Bab-el-Mandeb averages 20/day April 19-20 vs. 8.2/day in the previous five day period.
Is that reflecting a mad dash before the ceasefire ends tomorrow?
Hear ye, hear ye, all ye who voted thrice for Nixon and thrice for Reagan, twice for Clinton and twice for W, twice for Obama and thrice for Trump
The Roman people were grossly gulled twice or thrice over, and as often enslaved in one century, and under the same pretence of reformation.
-- John Dryden
Monday, April 20, 2026
Lori Chavez-Deremer fired before she could be grilled in an upcoming congressional hearing, same as Pam Bondi
Trump is tired of the bad PR episodes like the one he got from Kristi Noem.
... “Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer will be leaving the Administration to take a position in the private sector. She has done a phenomenal job in her role by protecting American workers, enacting fair labor practices, and helping Americans gain additional skills to improve their lives,” Cheung wrote in a post on X. ... Two Republicans who speak with Trump told NOTUS they expected Trump to pull the trigger on removing Chavez-DeRemer on April 22, when she was due for what was expected to be a bruising hearing in Congress. ...
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| Kristi Noem |
 |
| Pam Bondi |
 |
| Lori Chavez-DeRemer |
SPX rallied 10% after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, but ended the year down 19%
SPX is up almost 12% since March 30th.
Investors are misreading news about the Iran war, analysts say as markets whipsaw
... The resumption of uninterrupted energy flows is what underpins any sustained stock market recovery, according to investment manager Orbis.
“It’s pretty clear to us that equity markets are viewing things with a ‘glass half full’ view,” Patrick O’Donnell, chief investment strategist at Orbis, told CNBC’s Europe Early Edition on Monday.
“What we’re focused on is whether the Strait of Hormuz is actually going to reopen again.”
He added that the ramifications of the conflict in the Middle East will have “quite a long-lasting effect” for the global economy and markets. ...
Sunday, April 19, 2026
Through yesterday, KGRR Michigan precipitation is 7.03 inches above normal for 2026 year to date
Wish the rest of you could have some of it. Our rivers are flooding.
JMIC update 034 for the Middle East maritime region shows Strait of Hormuz combined cargo and tanker transits averaging 7.5 vessels per day April 12-18 vs. 138 normally
But tankers exiting the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz average just 2 per day April 12-18.
After the 13th, just 10 tankers have exited over 5 days, also 2 per day.
Tankers transiting the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait to and from the Red Sea, whether northwest (3.5/day) and possibly through the Suez or southeast (4/day) and headed to East Asia, average 7.5 per day.
Suezmax tankers carrying up to 1 million barrels of oil are the largest which can pass fully laden through the Suez.
Before the war, a dozen or so VLCCs, which have a capacity of 2 million barrels, transited the Strait of Hormuz daily out of 65-70 tankers which did so.
Total SoH tanker exits daily used to average 25-30.
Yanbu on the Red Sea can fill 2-5 tankers daily depending on the size (maybe 4 Suezmax), plus 2 per day out of the Persian Gulf, so we are at the max operating at 23% of normal tanker exits in the last week (7/30).
And again, that's just tankers, not a statement of actual oil volume.
And which of these were stopped by the U.S. Navy after transit only the Navy knows, as do people whose full time job it is to know, which isn't me.
If Monday pays attention to reality, oil prices will rise.
Mad King Ludwig admits he might be nuts
This is all because Joe Rogan got his ear.
Trump accelerates psychedelic treatments and asks, 'Can I have some?'
... “In many cases, these experimental treatments have shown life-changing potential for those suffering from severe mental illness and depression, including our cherished veterans,” Trump said during a signing event in the Oval Office. ...
“Can I have some, please? I’ll take some,” Trump said, adding that he would “take whatever it takes,” prompting laughter in the Oval. “I don’t have time to be depressed. You know, if you stay busy enough, maybe that works, too. That’s what I do.” ...
Ibogaine is the only psychedelic mentioned by name in the executive order, but LSD, MDMA and psilocybin – the active ingredient in “magic mushrooms” – have also been studied in the US as treatments for post-traumatic stress disorder and depression. ...
Dumbass Trump, who never paid the slightest attention to what's been happening in and to Ukraine, is surprised how easily Iran shut down the Strait of Hormuz with drones
The Wall Street Journal, here:
... The strait has been a particular source of frustration. Before the U.S. went to war, Trump told his team that Iran’s government would likely capitulate before closing the strait, and that even if Tehran tried, the U.S. military could handle it, The Wall Street Journal has reported. Some of the president’s advisers were caught off guard that tanker traffic would grind to a halt so quickly after the bombing began, according to a person in contact with the White House.
Trump has since marveled at the ease with which the strait was closed. A guy with a drone can shut it down, Trump has said to people, expressing belated irritation that the key waterway was so vulnerable. He has publicly oscillated between demanding support from allies to help open it and insisting that the U.S. doesn’t need or want military assistance. ...
White House concerns about security threats have been heightened, aides said.
In recent weeks, for example, Trump and his team have noticed an increase in security. On a cloudless night in April at Mar-a-Lago, every umbrella was up on the patio in an unusual arrangement, guests said. Club members were told that there was an effort to limit drone visibility, a Mar-a-Lago member said.
Rubio told others about standing outside his home at the military compound where he lives and watching a suspicious drone, administration officials said. Secret Service protection teams have expanded to carry weapons White House officials had never seen before. ...
Fars News Agency: Iranian silence is not golden lol
Iranian state news outlet questions foreign minister’s ‘unexpected tweet’ on Hormuz Strait
... The Fars News Agency added that Iranians worry about the “absolute and strange silence” from the country’s Supreme National Security Council and its negotiators.
“They [Iranians] accept it, but it is expected that at least a clear explanation be provided regarding the ‘reason for silence,'” the agency continued. “Public opinion raises this question: if it is in the country’s interest that the details of the negotiations or recent developments not be publicized, why is this very interest and the reason for avoiding transparency not explained to the people?”
The Fars News Agency called on its government to not “allow the enemy’s narrative and hostile media to fill the created narrative vacuum by toying with the spirit and psyche of society.”
“These days, Twitter and short, pithy statements are no longer a suitable medium for persuading domestic public opinion; rather, even this very ‘not explaining’ requires explanation,” the agency wrote in its last post in the thread. ...
Saturday, April 18, 2026
I should have guessed who was behind this ridiculous episode: Chaos agent Bill Pulte involved with Trump's Christ-like healer meme
Try to imagine Dwight Eisenhower golfing with a friend on a leisurely Sunday and discussing an image such as this one.
Trump discussed "Jesus" meme with Bill Pulte before posting it, sources say
... The original image of Trump as Christ-like healer didn't include the horned creature. It was published in February in a since-deleted X post by MAGA influencer Nick Adams, who wrote at the time that "America has been sick for a long time. President Trump is healing this nation."
Him is blocking voter ID lol
REP. ANNA PAULINA LUNA (R-FL): John Thune is a problem. I do not like what he's done because he has every ability, and really it's him that's blocking voter ID. He has every ability to embrace the standing filibuster or remove the filibuster.
Here.
-- B.S. Biology, University of West Florida
In case you aren't convinced yet, Iran shot at the Sanmar Herald this morning
Iran says Strait of Hormuz is closed again as vessels attempting to cross come under gunfire
... Shortly after the Iranian statements, the U.K. Maritime Trade Operations said a tanker reported being fired on by two gunboats operated by Iran’s IRGC. The incident happened 20 nautical miles northeast of Oman, the UKMTO said. The tanker and its crew were reported safe, and authorities are investigating, the UKMTO said. ...
Buffoon says what?
Trump says U.S. has ‘good news’ on Iran as Tehran says the Strait of Hormuz is closed again
... Ghalibaf, quickly disputed Trump’s claim that Tehran had cleared the strait for transit.
“With the continuation of the blockade, the Strait of Hormuz will not remain open,” Ghalibaf wrote in a translated X post.
Indeed, video footage from ship tracking firm Kpler shows a number of tankers and cargo ships did try to exit the waterway on Friday, but turned back.
“They’ve clearly not been given approval to pass through,” Matt Smith, director of commodity research at Kpler, told CNBC. ...
Friday, April 17, 2026
Friday night fright night for Ukraine as Trump keeps Russian oil unsanctioned for a second consecutive month
Trump is an asshole.
Update from CNBC Saturday:
U.S. renews Russian oil waiver after pressure from countries dealing with Iran war price shocks
... “As negotiations (with Iran) accelerate, Treasury wants to ensure oil is available to those who need it,” a Treasury Department spokesperson said. Just two days earlier, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Washington would not be renewing the waiver for Russian oil and another for Iranian oil, which is set to expire on Sunday. ...
U.S. lawmakers from both political parties had slammed the administration over the sanctions waivers, saying they stood to help the economy of Iran while it was at war with the U.S. and of Russia as it was at war with Ukraine. ...
It's not
Published last night at 2040:
U.S. oil price plunges below $84 as Iran declares Strait of Hormuz open, easing supply fears
Published at 0900 this morning:
Iran declares Strait of Hormuz open to shipping but Trump says U.S. blockade still active
The Joint Maritime Information Center Update 033 for the Strait of Hormuz April 16 2026 15:56 hours includes 2 full days of the Iran blockade April 14-15
"Historically average daily transit through the Strait of Hormuz is approximately 138 vessels per day."
Transit Average April 9-15 Strait of Hormuz: 5.1 vessels per day
Thursday, April 16, 2026
Inflation, whether pandemic induced or war induced, has been berry berry good for hiding price increases to boost corporate profits
... Sonu Varghese, the global macro
strategist at the Carson Group, a financial firm, said many of the
companies he tracked viewed inflation pressures from “outside shocks,”
such as this war, “as an opportunity to raise prices and boosts
margins,” which can, in turn, raise profits.
“I think we’re actually going to get some margin expansion,” Mr. Varghese added. ...
A liberal who hates filing his very complicated taxes wants our payrolls run through the government, our incomes tracked, and our taxes automatically deducted
Yeah, that'll be popular.
... Some years ago, I traveled to the Faroe Islands, an autonomous territory of Denmark, to report on their tax authority, which is arguably the best in the world. There, all normal wages are routed through a central government database, which automatically keeps track of how much you are making, and what benefit programs you are eligible for.
While this computerized system is quite sophisticated and required a lot of initial investment, it is incredibly easy to operate. For an ordinary worker, what you owe automatically comes out of the paycheck, and any benefit payments automatically go right into your bank account. Ordinary employees don’t have to file their taxes or any enrollment paperwork (if they have a child and become eligible for the Faroese child allowance, for instance, the money just starts showing up), while employers don’t have to hire a payroll processor to handle their tax payments. ...
Why the world has the petrodollar, not a petroyuan
Don’t call time on dollar dominance just yet, say analysts as ‘petroyuan’ call sparks debate
... “Oil is not priced in US dollars simply because the United States has long acted as the world’s policeman,” wrote Sonal Desai, Franklin Templeton’s fixed income CIO.
“Oil exporters have a strong self-interest in getting paid in USD, because of what dollars represent: access to the deepest, most liquid capital markets in the world, backed by an institutional and legal framework that protects property rights and enforces contracts, supported by a strong, dynamic, and innovative economy.” ...
Franklin Templeton’s Desai added in the note that building the right infrastructure for a credible replacement, consisting of “deep markets, rule of law, full convertibility, a track record of macro stability”, takes decades, not years. ...
Desai added that the dollar’s recent weakness is simply a function of its characteristics.
“Some dollar softness is perfectly consistent with global reserve currency status,” Desai wrote.
“Unlike the renminbi, the dollar is a freely floating currency. It floats – up and down.”
Wednesday, April 15, 2026
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