Nominal broad dollar index average values
Obama II, first year // 1Q second year // April 2014: 92.75 / 94.51 / 93.99
Trump II, first year // 1Q second year // April 2026: 122.75 / 119.01 / 119.03
Thank you for attention to this matter.
Tuesday, May 19, 2026
The total value of all foreign-owned U.S. Treasury securities is up 3.25% year over year in March 2026, and CNBC says Japan and China retreat from owning them
The big retreat was actually in the BRICS.
The value of Japanese-owned UST is up 5.4% year over year in March, lol.
Meanwhile the value of official China-owned is down 14.8% yoy, but China notoriously owns UST through stealth mechanisms, often in the UK and Belgium where ownership is up 19% and 12.9% yoy respectively.
Hard to say what's going on there with the most trusted name in nothing.
Month over month in March 2026 the total value of all foreign-owned is barely down 1.5%, which is neither unusual nor indicative of much of anything.
On a year over year basis, there were just five net "sellers" among the major foreign holders: China, Taiwan, Switzerland, India (down nearly 24%!), and Brazil (down 19%!).
Officially anyway, BRIC of the BRICS raising hard currency for some reason lol oil.
Japan, China lead foreign government retreat from U.S. Treasurys as Gulf War stokes currency fears
Monday, May 18, 2026
Senate Parliamentarian won't let Republicans spend $1 billion through phony reconciliation interpretation to rebuild East Wing destroyed by the MAGA drone in the Oval Office
Trump ballroom money in question after Senate parliamentarian rules. Thune says GOP will persist
... Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough determined Saturday that the provision, which included $220 million for security upgrades tied to the East Wing ballroom project, fell outside the jurisdiction of the Senate Judiciary Committee. ... The White House and Senate Republicans have framed the $1 billion as Secret Service funding for security upgrades, not direct construction money for the ballroom. ... MacDonough has already ruled against several other pieces of the measure, forcing GOP leaders to revise multiple provisions as they try to keep the package on track. ...
Mein Führer . . . I CAN WALK !!
Elon Musk compares his company’s work to that of Jesus
... “It has enabled people who have completely lost their brain-body connection to speak again … and we believe it will enable people to walk again,” Musk said of Neuralink’s brain-computer interface, or BCI, technologies.
... “Restoring control of people who are tetraplegics and restoring sight I think are pretty big deals,” Musk said on Monday at the conference, adding: “They’re sort of what I might call Jesus-level technologies.” ...
Sheriff says not to worry because no one has told him that he should . . . ROFLMAO
... Cuba has acquired 300 military drones ...
... thousands of Cuban veterans of Russia’s war with Ukraine have come home to tell their leaders of the effectiveness of drones on the battlefield. U.S. officials have learned more about Cuba’s drone program from Venezuela since removing Nicolás Maduro from power earlier this year ...
A Blue Wave is building in the 2026 Generic Congressional Vote with Democrats now +7.2 points
As usual politics at the extremes is less about voting for someone and more about voting against someone.
All you have to do most of the time is not piss off the voters.
Sunday, May 17, 2026
Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson (LA-4) was for the ban on insider stock trading in Congress before he was against it
My favorite part about his new position is that if we don't allow our representatives to make money somehow, we'll stop attracting talent to Washington, D.C.
You know, like Trump, whose primary talent is corruption.
💋
Silver is still up 6.14% year to date, gold 5.09% even as energy prices march higher
But SPX is up 8.02% ytd.
WTI is up 84.01% ytd.
VGENX is up 20.88% ytd.
Investment grade corporate securities:
VWESX is down 1.54% ytd.
VFICX is down 0.65% ytd.
VFSTX is up 0.27% ytd.
US Treasury securities:
VUSUX is down 2.52% ytd.
VFIUX is down 1.05% ytd.
VFIRX is up 0.16% ytd.
Inflation:
CPI (CPIAUCSL) is up 3.77% year over year in April.
PCE (PCEPI) is up 3.49% yoy in March.
Nominal Broad Dollar Index:
April: 119.03
1Q2026: 119.01
2025: 122.75
5Y: 119.94
GDP, Compound Annual Growth Rate
5Y: 7.031% nominal, 2.775% real
Daleep Singh: I personally don’t think the bond-vigilante trade will be alive very long
The bond market is flashing a warning over Iran. A veteran of energy geopolitics explains the risk
... A deal would have to be guaranteed by a trusted third party. There’s no trust at all between the U.S. and Tehran right now, because the bombs have been dropping every time they’ve sat down to negotiate. That’s where China comes in, and I’ll be interested to hear more details of what was said and agreed in Beijing [during Trump’s summit with Xi Jinping]. ...
You have got to be kidding me.
China is the primary beneficiary of the world's sanctioned oil.
Global oil will pick demand destruction and recession in order to save itself once visible supply falls closer to 6.8 billion barrels
Global oil stockpiles could hit record lows if Strait of Hormuz remains closed
... Inventories were near a decade high at just over 8 billion barrels at the end of February, Swiss bank UBS estimated in a Tuesday report. By end of April, stockpiles fell to 7.8 billion barrels, UBS analysts said.
Inventories will approach record lows of 7.6 billion barrels by end of May if demand remains the same month over month, the UBS analysts said. Inventories falling to that level would stress the supply chain, JPMorgan analysts said in an April 30 note.
Billions of barrels in inventory may sound like a lot but the reality is that only about 800 million barrels are available without straining the system, the JPMorgan analysts said. The rest is needed to keep pipelines and tanks filled at minimum levels so the supply chain operates efficiently, they said.
“Like blood pressure in the human body, the issue is circulation,” said Natasha Kaneva, JPMorgan’s head of global commodities strategy. “The system does not fail because oil disappears, it fails because the circulation network no longer has enough working volume.”
Oil inventories would fall to a critically low level of 6.8 billion barrels by September if Hormuz is still closed at that time, JPMorgan forecast. Product inventories would hit critical levels sooner in July or August, according to a forecast from Rapidan Energy.
The global economy would “seize up, with critical transportation infrastructure unable to source fuel at any price,” Rapidan analysts said in May 7 note.
But inventories are very unlikely to reach these critically low levels, the analysts said. Instead, oil and product prices will spike to curtail demand which will cause “a severe economic contraction.”
“That’s likely to happen before 3Q26,” the Rapidan analysts said.
Saturday, May 16, 2026
Democrat primary slugfest in Michigan for retiring US Senator Gary Peters' seat features three candidates unfamiliar to a third of Democrats, giving opportunistic Republican Mike Rogers another shot
... Each unofficially represents an ideological faction. El-Sayed is the Democratic Socialists’ candidate, backed by Senator Bernie Sanders and supportive of single-payer health care. McMorrow is the progressive populist, backed by Senator Elizabeth Warren and supportive of a public health insurance option. Stevens is the moderate, tacitly backed by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, and, while nominally supportive of a public option, doesn’t lean into it nor mention it on her website’s issues page.
And as I covered last week, the three are divided on Israel. El-Sayed would end all military aid to Israel (in fact, he “opposes directly funding foreign militaries” everywhere). McMorrow would stop selling Israel offensive weapons and has the support of the “pro-Israel, pro-peace” J Street PAC. Stevens defines herself as a “proud pro-Israel Democrat,” and is backed by AIPAC PAC.
... Moreover, every poll taken pegs at least one-third of the primary electorate as undecided. The Glengariff Group poll shows at least 40 percent of Democrats “never heard” of any of them (for McMorrow, it’s 60 percent), and that number is probably higher among the general electorate. The more they attack each other, the more voters will be introduced to them in the worst possible way. ...
More.
Stevens is the obvious choice of Michigan voters who are put off by the extremism of the Democratic left. She will complement Michigan's other moderate Senator Elissa Slotkin and help Democrats speak with one clear voice for sensible policies for Michigan workers.
Only just discovered on May 10th, Chelyabinsk-size 15-35 meter Asteroid 2026 JH2 will fly by on Monday at only 56,000 miles
May 10th!
Yes, out of nowhere, the Sweet Meteor of Death will someday blow us all away without (much) warning, but not today.
From the story here:
... Asteroid 2026 JH2 was initially observed by the Mount Lemmon Survey in Arizona, which uses a 60-inch telescope to detect near-Earth objects like comets and asteroids. ...
Kevin Warsh wasn't sworn in as Fed chair on Friday and Powell is still in charge because Warsh has so many assets to unload to meet ethics requirements he couldn't get 'em all done on time lol
So the bond vigilantes threw a party and sold off, spiking yields across the board 1.44% on the day, throwing down the gauntlet at Warsh, daring him to cut in the face of all the chaos Trump is causing.
The 20-year soared to 5.14%.
Yields are up 2.8% in the aggregate since the beginning of the month.
6% inflation is knocking on the door.
Inflation rate projected to hit 6% in the second quarter, top economic forecasters say
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