Market valuation in 2014 is 15% above the 2007 level

Average market cap to GDP in 2006 and 2007 came in at 1.23, and then fell to 0.74 by the end of 2008.

As of the end of 3Q2014, the ratio has risen to 1.415, which is 15% above the level seven years ago before the stock market crash, and 91% above the 2008 level.

Current valuation is about 17.5% below the stratospheric level of 1.715 reached at the end of 1999, and almost 195% above the 1981 level at 0.48, the mother of all buying opportunities in our lifetimes.

Buy and Hold: Why bother with Bridgewater's All Weather or with a simple global market portfolio?

Meb Faber compares the returns from behemoth Bridgewater's All Weather portfolio to a simple global market portfolio (GAA) here, acknowledging that the leveraged version of the latter which beats All Weather is probably too expensive for individuals to implement:

All Weather, 1996-2014: 6.34% net of inflation

GAA (unleveraged), 1996-2014: 5.23% net of inflation.

I say, why bother?

You can invest very cheaply in a low-cost S&P500 index fund and do very nearly just as well on the stock side: The average annual return from the S&P500 net of inflation, 11/'95-11/'14, has been 6.23%.

And for the bond portion of your portfolio an investment in a low-cost long term bond index fund like VBLTX has yielded 7.89% since 1994. Net of inflation at about 2.31% this must come in in the neighborhood of 5.4% per annum.

Which begs the question, Why not just pick a decent low-cost balanced fund?

Actively managed Wellesley Income, VWINX, has yielded 10.09% per annum since 1970, with inflation annualizing at about 4.17%. And the traditional Balanced Index, VBINX, has yielded 8.38% since 1992, with inflation annualizing at about 2.38%. Either fund puts you in the vicinity of 5.9% to 6% per annum net of inflation. Expense ratios for these funds are less than a quarter point.

Just sayin'.

Tonight's S&P500 level is 0.8% above the inflation-adjusted August 2000 level, the previous high

2058 vs. 2041.