Saturday, December 20, 2014

Michigan legislators cut the baby in half in lameduck twilight, requiring internet sales tax collection from businesses with any form of physical presence

Reported here:

SB 658 and SB 659 extend the state's sales and use taxes to out-of-state companies with a physical "nexus" or presence in the state. That would apply these taxes to companies like Amazon, which has a presence in the state but not a retail front.

A ruling worthy of a rabbi.

The latest snapshot of the asset allocation of the United States is "risk on"

Total bond market per SIFMA through 3Q2014: $38.65 trillion (49.8%)
Total stock market capitalization per ^W5000 right now: $26.07 trillion (33.6%)
Cash per MZM money stock: $12.89 trillion (16.6%)
Total: $77.61 trillion

If you add in Households, Owners' equity in real estate, you add another $10.98 trillion for a total pie of $88.59 trillion, thus 43.6% to bonds, 29.4% to stocks, 14.6% to cash, and 12.4% to real estate.

From the perspective of the Talmud this allocation is very unwise because it is much too light on cash and owners' equity. The amounts allocated to business, to cash and to your homestead should each be about 33%, indicating that we are very heavily "risk on" indeed.

Food for thought.

Vanguard bond index funds, 15 year performance per annum vs. stocks

HMS Vanguard
Per morningstar.com, annual performance 15 years to date for all popular bond index funds beats stocks hands down, except for the short index:

VBISX: 4.05% (short)
VBMFX: 5.42% (total)
VBIIX: 6.48% (intermediate)
VBLTX: 8.30% (long).

Average annual total nominal return from the S&P500, dividends fully reinvested, has been only 4.52% per annum.

That's what happens when stocks are inflated in value over a long period of time, as they have been almost continuously since the late 1990s, except for about four years between 2008 and 2012. And remember, present gains off those lower valuations are already part of the relatively poorer performance of stocks over the last 15 years. It could be much worse.