Saturday, March 14, 2026

SPX/GDP, then vs. now

SPX(average annual)/GDP(trillions of dollars), then vs. now

1938: 131

1942: 52

1964/1965: 118 

1982: 35

2000: 139 

2009: 65

2019: 135 

2025: 202

Median 1938-2019: 81

This ratio has been above 139 for six consecutive years 2020-2025, which is unprecedented for the era shown. Even so, return places third because dividends are puny in the age of obscenely overpaid dirty rotten CEOs and management.

Return: nominal/real, average per annum, dividends fully reinvested

12/1942-12/1965: 15.43%/12.30%

12/1982-12/2000: 16.66/12.97

12/2009-12/2025: 14.09/11.23 

 


 

Gold ends the week up 16.20% year to date, silver 12.53%

 



Ronald Reagan didn't make America great again, and neither has Trump

 Ronald Reagan didn't make America great again, and neither has Trump. 

Real GDP Compound Annual Growth Rates

1947-1984: 3.652% 

1984-2017: 2.675% 

2017-2025: 2.416%

 


 

Friday, March 13, 2026

That right there is a stagflation headline

 Fourth-quarter GDP revised down to just 0.7% growth; January core inflation was 3.1%

Economic growth was much slower than expected in the final three months of 2025 while core inflation rose to start 2026, the Commerce Department reported Friday. ...

The first revision of the GDP reading was a sharp step down from the previous estimate of 1.4% and well below the Dow Jones consensus forecast for 1.5%. It also marked a considerable slowdown from the 4.4% gain in the prior period. For the full year, GDP posted a 2.1% increase, or one-tenth of a percentage point lower than the previous reading. In 2024, the economy rose at a 2.8% pace. ...

On the inflation side, readings for January were mostly in line with estimates, though they showed price increases running well ahead of where the Federal Reserve would like. ...  

      

Core pce inflation has been range-bound around 3% since Dec 2023. For 2009 through 2020 it averaged half that, 1.5%.

The compound annual rate of real GDP growth since 2017 has been 2.416%, almost 34% lower than the post-war rate for 1947 through 1984 of 3.652%.

The rate for 1984 through 2017, also using today's data, was 2.675%, also higher than the rate since the Trump tax reform eight years ago.

Trump has not made America great again, any more than Reagan did. 

 





 

Thursday, March 12, 2026

Trump's voting legislation faces defeat in the U.S. Senate next week

Trump is convinced illegal aliens vote in large enough numbers to prevent Republicans from winning even though he and the Republicans swept into office in 2024 and control the executive and legislative branches of government.

 

 Trump-backed SAVE America Act will get a Senate vote next week, Thune says

The legislation is expected to fail unless a change is made to the filibuster, which requires 60 votes on most measures considered by the Senate. ...

For months Trump, GOP hardliners and online influencers like Elon Musk have railed against opponents of the bill and called repeatedly for a change to the Senate filibuster rule to ensure passage in the upper chamber. Thune supports the legislation but has rejected those calls, saying changing Senate procedure could have unintended consequences. Speaking from the Senate floor Thursday, he made no mention of changing the chamber’s rules, all but assuring the proposal will not pass. ... 

Anticipating the bill’s failure in the Senate, Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah, who introduced the legislation, and other proponents have engaged in a pressure campaign to revert back to a “standing filibuster,” which requires dissenting members to actively hold the Senate floor to block legislation and could, in theory, allow for the passage of the bill with a simple 50-vote majority. ...

Fox News on Mar 11 was still letting a former NSC staffer repeat the false assertion in Energy Secretary Chris Wright's Mar 10 erroneous and quickly deleted post

 Energy Secretary Wright says U.S. ‘not ready’ to escort oil tankers through Strait of Hormuz yet

... Wright’s comments come after a post on his social media account wrongly claimed on Tuesday [Mar 10] that the Navy had escorted a tanker through the Strait. The post was quickly deleted from his account, but it sent oil prices plunging more than 17% at their lows Tuesday. 

President Donald Trump promised on March 3 that “the United States Navy will begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, as soon as possible.” 

Tanker traffic through the Strait remains at a standstill as ship owners fear attacks by Iran. The closure of the Strait has triggered the largest oil supply disruption in history, according to analyses from consulting firms Rapidan Energy and Wood Mackenzie. ...

 


 

 

Wednesday, March 11, 2026

Mad King Ludwig to release 172 million barrels of oil from SPR lol

That will take the level below 250 million barrels, enough to last the country just twelve days in an emergency. 

 Iran war: Trump will release 172 million barrels of oil from Strategic Petroleum Reserve

 

Cornyn is the scoundrel Texas deserves

 Sen. John Cornyn flips on the filibuster to pass SAVE America Act as Trump weighs endorsement

Cornyn, who spent years defending the filibuster, is locked in a competitive GOP runoff in Texas against Ken Paxton, who has aligned with Trump on the issue. ...

New high prices for coffee and ground chuck

 



You will not be any wiser for having read it

 

The best part was the professor who lamented Epstein's typos while he himself misused the word disinterest:

“It was nihilistic almost in its total disinterest in communicating,” Bessner said.  

The dumbasses at Fox don't know the meaning of decimates, showcase an NSC liar THIS MORNING who says U.S. Navy escorted ships through Hormuz yesterday when they did not

To be fair, they're just repeating what our ignoramus in chief says.

 




Core cpi inflation still 2.45% year over year not seasonally adjusted, down from 2.50% yoy last month, Assembly of Experts expects higher next month

A little Iran humor for ya there. 

 Consumer prices rose 2.4% annually in February, as expected

... The data predates the recent surge in oil prices tied to the war with Iran, meaning any impact from higher energy costs will likely show up in the months ahead. ...

Outside the pandemic, we were last higher than this in Sep 2008.

 


The best thing about Pete Hegseth is that he's not wearing the clown's Florsheims like Rubio is

 



The Mar-a-Lago donor class overwhelmingly prefers Marco Rubio over J. D. Vance

 


Iran attacks vessels in the Persian Gulf but ships its own oil to China, threatens to mine the Strait of Hormuz as U.S. littoral combat ships prove inadequate as replacements for legacy minesweepers decommissioned last year

... The UKMTO said it had received 17 reports of incidents affecting vessels operating in and around the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman between Feb. 28, when the war began, and March 11. These include 13 attack reports and four reports of suspicious activity. ...

Iran sends millions of oil barrels to China through Strait of Hormuz even as war chokes the waterway  

... Iran has sent at least 11.7 million barrels of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz since the war began on Feb. 28, all of which were headed to China, Samir Madani, co-founder of TankerTrackers, told CNBC on Tuesday.

The firm monitors vessel movements with satellite imagery, allowing it to capture vessels that would otherwise go undetected if their tracking systems are switched off. Many vessels have “gone dark” after Tehran threatened to attack any vessel attempting to pass through the waterway. ...

Over the years, China has built up large crude stockpiles, accumulating an estimated 1.2 billion barrels of inventory as of January, which could fulfill demand for 3 to 4 months, according to Atlantic Council. ...

U.S. forces sink 16 Iranian minelayers as reports say Tehran is mining the Strait of Hormuz 

... A CNN report Tuesday said that Iran had started laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, albeit not extensively. Sources that CNN spoke to said only a “few dozen” had been laid in recent days.

The report also said that Iran still retains more than 80% of its small boats and minelayers, and could feasibly lay hundreds of mines in the waterway.  

Located between Oman and Iran, the strait saw roughly 13 million barrels of crude per day passing through it in 2025, representing about 31% of all seaborne crude flows, according to energy consulting firm Kpler. ...

CBS News, which reported that Iran “may be getting ready” to deploy naval mines, said the country was using smaller crafts that can carry two to three mines each to lay them in the strait. While Iran’s mine stock isn’t publicly known, estimates over the years have ranged from roughly 2,000 to 6,000 naval mines, the report said. ...

... the U.S. had decommissioned four Avenger-class minesweepers that were stationed in Bahrain in late 2025.

The replacement vessels for the Avenger-class, the Independence-class littoral combat ships, have “struggled to meet the requirements of operational mine countermeasures missions,” according to global naval publication Naval News.

Tuesday, March 10, 2026

Oil on the crazy train

 


Sunday, March 8, 2026

The Chicoms have been the primary source for Iran's sodium perchlorate for twenty years, without which its ballistic missile program would not exist

Iran ships most of its oil to China, and China sends back the ingredients for weapons of mass destruction.

 

 Laden Iranian ships depart Chinese port tied to key military chemicals (March 7, 2026)

... “China could have held these vessels at port, imposed an administrative delay, invented a customs hold — any number of bureaucratic tools, but didn’t,” said Isaac Kardon, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, to The Post. “That’s a deliberate policy choice made during an active war in which Beijing publicly calls for restraint.”

Although IRISL operates as a large commercial carrier, Kardon said the circumstances of these shipments strongly suggest the cargo is sodium perchlorate. “Given the track record, the most parsimonious explanation is that they’re loading the same commodity they’ve been shuttling for the past year-plus,” he said. ...

The U.S. and Israel strikes have hammered Iran’s missile storage bunkers and underground depots. “Tehran’s need for propellant precursors just went from urgent to existential,” Kardon told The Post.  

 

 Western intelligence says Iran is rearming despite UN sanctions, with China’s help  (October 31, 2025)

  ... European intelligence sources say several shipments of sodium perchlorate, the main precursor in the production of the solid propellant that powers Iran’s mid-range conventional missiles, have arrived from China to the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas since the so-called “snapback” mechanism was triggered at the end of September.

Those sources say the shipments, which began arriving on September 29, contain 2,000 tons of sodium perchlorate bought by Iran from Chinese suppliers in the wake of its 12-day conflict with Israel in June. The purchases are believed to be part of a determined effort to rebuild the Islamic Republic’s depleted missile stocks. Several of the cargo ships and Chinese entities involved are under sanctions from the United States. ...

The critics ignore that Kristi Noem's DHS ad campaign was all Trump's idea and that she was saying so already in February 2025