Friday, August 3, 2018
Thursday, August 2, 2018
Sandy Pensler grows even more desperate in Michigan Republican race for US Senate, enlists Rand Paul for robocalls
I got that call this afternoon, just days after getting one from Rick Santorum urging a vote for Pensler. Clearly this is Pensler's play for the libertarian vote after the earlier play for the Catholic vote.
Pensler is counting on his expensive ad campaign overcoming Trump's endorsement of his challenger, John James, and on the fractured nature of Republican politics in Michigan to eek out a win, which is a phenomenon of its libertarian leanings.
And as everyone knows, libertarians are a contrary bunch who can hardly come to agreement about anything among themselves, let alone unite anyone around their views once in office. Pensler himself has alienated Polish-Americans with his holocaust remarks. He fits right in with the libertarians.
The right thing to do in this context is vote for John James.
Good comparison of the presidents on GDP by Justin Fox at Bloomberg
Fox well reminds his readers that GDP is an inadequate measure in many respects, and gives credit where credit is due even when the numbers don't seem to show it.
His second chart is the better chart since it is a political comparison, which is what this is all about, pegging beginning and end of analysis to fourth quarters when presidents are elected or eclipsed.
He has Kennedy and Johnson first and second (5.5% and 5%), followed by Clinton (3.8%), Reagan 3.6%), Carter (3.2%) and Nixon 3.0%), then IKE (2.5%), then Ford and Bush 41 tied (2.2%), with Obama (1.9%) and Bush 43 (1.8%) bringing up the rear. (Trump so far is seventh, ahead of IKE but behind Nixon, at 2.7%).
A few quibbles.
The data is plenty fine for Truman 1948-1952. He should be included. His performance is the best of them all on a full term basis (5.54%), using the same compound annual growth rate Fox uses. The secret to Truman's success? He slashed government spending in the wind-down from World War II. No one seems to get that. By cutting taxes and not slashing spending, Republicans since Truman only defeat themselves and discredit what works.
Secondly, JFK didn't serve out his first term, Nixon his second. Therefore it makes more sense to view JFK coterminous with LBJ (5.19% together), and Ford with Nixon (2.73%), evaluating them together in two eight year periods of Democrat and Republican political administration respectively, which is what it was.
Third, Fox rounds his numbers, which obscures how close Bush and Obama were in their terrible records (1.83% and 1.88% respectively).
All in all, though, we come up with similar results: Truman is first (5.54), followed by JFK/LBJ (5.19), Clinton (3.81), Reagan (3.55), Carter (3.19), Nixon/Ford (2.73), IKE (2.52), Bush 41 (2.21), Obama (1.88), and Bush 43 (1.83).
Trump's first year through 4Q2017 is 2.47%. Measured 2Q2017 on 2Q2018 just completed he's at 2.85%.
Only by comparison with the previous sixteen years is this anything to cheer about, but thankfully we have that.
Democrat socialist Ocasio-Cortez is a crackpot, says everyone has two jobs when multiple jobholding is at historic lows
The lights are on there, but nobody's home. Even at the historic highs it was less than 7% of the employed, and that was back in the Clinton era when the economy is pretty much universally acknowledged to have been a lot better than it is now. That suggests multiple job holding is a good thing, not a bad thing. When people can get two jobs that means there is more opportunity to work harder to save for important goals and pay for them. No coincidence, either, that GDP was better then when more people worked multiple jobs. More work equals more GDP.
Governor Moonbeam is clueless about how much warmer it was in Greco-Roman antiquity than today
Jerry Brown, quoted here:
The governor added that "since civilization emerged 10,000 years ago, we haven’t had this kind of heat condition, and it’s going to continue getting worse and that’s the way it is."
Wednesday, August 1, 2018
Russian non-citizen of the US was registered to vote in San Fran Freako without her knowledge, as a Democrat
Story here.
Seems the scam kicks into motion if you sign a petition on the street. The activists then turn in stacks of registrations with the petitions:
Ms. Shuvalova was signed up — possibly without her knowledge — by an organization circulating a petition for a 2013 ballot initiative to stop a massive condominium development on the San Francisco waterfront. A signed registration card was submitted with the petition to qualify Ms. Shuvalova as a petition signer, said John Arntz, director of the San Francisco Department of Elections. Activists often hand in stacks of registration cards with their petitions, he said. Election officials say they conduct routine cross-references of voter registration information with databases at the state’s Department of Motor Vehicles and the secretary of state’s office but did not flag Ms. Shuvalova as a noncitizen. The box for “vote by mail” was checked on her registration card, and the county began sending her ballots. County records show she received nine ballots but never voted.
Tuesday, July 31, 2018
Dissent emerges in China from a high place
From the story here:
Censorship and punishment have muted dissent in China since Mr. Xi came to power. So Xu Zhangrun, a law professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing, took a big risk last week when he delivered the fiercest denunciation yet from a Chinese academic of Mr. Xi’s hard-line policies, revival of Communist orthodoxies and adulatory propaganda image.
“People nationwide, including the entire bureaucratic elite, feel once more lost in uncertainty about the direction of the country and about their own personal security, and the rising anxiety has spread into a degree of panic throughout society,” Professor Xu wrote in an essay that appeared on the website of Unirule Institute of Economics, an independent think tank in Beijing that was recently forced out of its office. ...
“As things continue in this direction, the question arises whether reform and opening up will come to a halt and totalitarian rule will return,” Professor Xu said in the essay, written in a densely classical style speckled with recondite phrases and historical allusions. “At this time, no other anxiety weighs most heavily on most people.” ...
Professor Xu’s future may now become a test of whether Mr. Xi will display greater tolerance of criticism.
“I have said what I must and am in the hands of fate,” he wrote at the end of his essay. “Heaven will decide whether we rise or fall.”
Mark Levin barked at a caller tonight that doctors aren't in the top 1%, saying that's Marxist crap
Mark is celebrating Milton Friedman's birthday today, so he's in no mood for anyone who has the temerity to question capitalism's idealism.
Meanwhile US News and World Report here says that
"In 2016, a general internist made a median salary of $196,380, according to the BLS. The highest-paid in the profession earned upward of $208,000, while the lowest-paid made $60,080. ... In fact, a physician's average salary was $201,840 in 2016."
People who made $200,000 or more in 2016 were in the 98.70706th percentile, in other words in the top 1.29294%. There were just 2.1 million such individuals in 2016.
You weren't firmly in the top 1% until you made $250,000 in 2016.
Italy's Matteo Salvini: The EU are swindlers
Quoted here:
“My experience in the European parliament tells me you either impose yourself or they swindle you.”
“There is no objectivity or good faith from the European side.”
Despite Fed interventions we are still left with the foregone output
Stephen Roach, here, one of the few who openly acknowledges the still-shrunken economy:
The Fed mistakenly believed that what worked during the crisis would work equally well afterwards.
An unprecedentedly weak economic recovery – roughly 2% annual growth over the past nine-plus years, versus a 4% norm in earlier cycles – says otherwise. ...
Do we want a reactive central bank that focuses on cleaning up the mess after a crisis erupts, or a pro-active central bank that leans against excesses before they spark crises?
That question – whether to “lean or clean” – has fueled a raging debate in policy and academic circles. It has an important political economy component: Are independent central banks willing to force society to sacrifice growth in order to preserve financial stability? It also bears on the bubble-spotting debate. Yet as difficult as these problems are, they pale in comparison to the foregone output of America’s anemic post-crisis recovery.
Bernie defends Medicare For All claiming on national healthcare spending it will save $30 billion a year on net
Bernie links to Jacobin Magazine here which discusses the savings as well as the irony of libertarians openly acknowledging those savings. The article laments their myopic focus on just the increased federal cost.
In the final analysis, the question is whether $30 billion is worth it to have your doctor earn only Medicare level rates instead of market rates.
What incentive does one have to go into medical practice knowing you'll no longer be able to make the big bucks? Mediocre prospects attract mediocre candidates.
What incentive will anyone have to innovate if there's nothing in it for them? Mediocrity will breed mediocrity.
These intangibles are the realm of the hidden hand operating in capitalism which makes it superior to socialism.
The depressing fact is that when Republicans are in charge they should be leading the charge toward a freer market in healthcare, but there is no manliness in libertarianism.
As a result the ladies of socialism are in charge of the conversation.
Bernie's Medicare For All to add 72% to current outlays
From the story here:
The Mercatus analysis estimated the 10-year cost of "Medicare for all" from 2022 to 2031 [at $32.6 trillion], after an initial phase-in. Its findings are similar to those of several independent studies of Sanders' 2016 plan. Those studies found increases in federal spending over 10 years that ranged from $24.7 trillion to $34.7 trillion.
Current outlays in fiscal 2018 are estimated to finish up at $4.137 trillion, to which add the average increase from BernieCare of $2.97 trillion, an increase of nearly 72% to outlays, and you've got nothing short of a draconian tax increase needed to pay for it all.
Monday, July 30, 2018
Jim Cramer March 2016: Trump has been right the whole way on the trade deals, he's always been pro-worker
Jim Cramer, here:
"I'm with Trump on this. Look, we lose on every trade deal. I ask all these people from either party: name me one trade deal we have had a surplus on in the last decade. They can't name any," Cramer said on "Squawk Box" on Thursday. ... "People should understand this has been his view from day one. It has always been pro-worker," said Cramer. "Have people not been paying attention to what this man has been saying about the trade deals? He's been right the whole way."
Mitch McConnell doesn't just look like a turtle, he moves like one, can't accomplish two important things at once
Time to get someone younger in there.
Sunday, July 29, 2018
Carr Fire victims in California had no car, may not have known of evacuation order
The Sacramento Bee reports here:
Also believed to have died are a 70-year-old woman and her two great-grandchildren.
According to relative Donald Kewley, James Roberts, 4, and Emily Roberts, 5, went missing with their great grandmother, Melody Bledsoe, 70, Thursday night. Kewley told The Sacramento Bee that the three were last seen at their home near Keswick Dam Road and Quartz Hill Road – a home that was destroyed in the blaze – before evacuations were ordered.
Shasta County Sheriff Tom Bosenko confirmed that three bodies were found inside the family home, but that no formal identification has been made yet.
“They are overwhelmingly sure that there are decedents at the scene,” the sheriff said. “And they have communicated that with family members. However, no bodies have been recovered.
Separately reported here:
“There was no evacuation notice,” said Kewley, who lives about two miles away. “Our evacuation was a mile-wide column of smoke rotating toward us.”
Shasta County Sheriff Tom Bosenko Saturday said evacuation notices had been given in multiple formats in the area, including reverse-911 robocalls, calls to cell phones of those who had signed up for such emergency alerts and notifications via TV and the federal Integrated Public Alert & Warning System, which broadcasts warnings during emergencies.
Bosenko could not say if authorities had gone door-to-door in the Bledsoes’ area, as they have in other evacuation sites.
He said Thursday night, as the fire unexpectedly and rapidly came into the city, streets were “bumper-to-bumper” with people trying to escape. At one point, Bosenko said, a civilian purposefully hit a sheriff’s vehicle trying to get through an intersection.
“It was very chaotic and people who had waited to the last minute were panicking,” Bosenko said.
In that frenzy of smoke and confusion, Melody, James and Emily sought help.
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