Of 8 More Close Uncalled House Races, 3 Look to go Republican

With a net gain to date of 61 seats, 3 more defeats of Democrat incumbents look possible.

Bloomberg.com reports similarly here:

“It’s expected that Republicans will hold on and pick up a total of 63 or 64 seats, though recounts can occasionally produce a surprise,” said Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.

Vote totals taken from PoliticsDaily.com show Republican Vidak overturning Democrat Costa in CA-20 50.8% to 49.2%.

In IL-8, the Republican Walsh looks to overtake Democrat Melissa Bean 48.5% to 48.3% thanks to Green Party Scheurer siphoning off 3.2% on the Democrat incumbent's left. This was conservative Republican Phil Crane's old seat.

And in NY-25 the Republican Buerkle has a similarly razor thin lead over incumbent Democrat Maffei 50.2% to 49.8%.

Other races don't look as promising for Republicans, close as they are.

A constitutionalist third party candidate in CA-11 has managed 5% of the vote in a race leaning to the incumbent Democrat McNerney over the Republican Harmer by just .3%.

Incumbent Democrat Chandler in KY-6 has a .2% lead over Republican challenger Barr.

Three third parties in VA-11 have bled off 1.8% of the vote in favor of the Democrat incumbent Connolly vs. Republican Fimian who trails by .4% of the vote. Libertarian and Green parties strike again.

WA-2 is a different matter with 95% of the precincts reporting because of voting by mail. The Democrat Larsen is ahead of Republican Koster 50.7% to 49.3%.

The race in NY-1 has looked like Democrat incumbent Bishop's over Republican Altshuler 51% to 49% until the report of a closer count in the Bloomberg story. The Republican says many absentee ballots have not yet been counted. 

Third Party Candidates in Colorado Senate Race Hand Victory to Democrat Bennet

Where the difference between the Democrat winning and the Republican losing was only 16,000 votes.

The Independent Reform candidate, a self-described social liberal and economic conservative, in other words a libertarian, siphoned off 18,000 votes. A non-originalist crank, he thought two bad innovations of the past have been good for the country, as in this:

The graduated income tax and direct election of senators were originally third party ideas adopted by the major parties to win back votes.

The Libertarian Party candidate in the race bled off 21,000 votes.

Two unaffiliated candidates trying to capitalize on opposition to bailouts and ineffective stimulus spending siphoned off another 16,000 between them. One was a dope advocate who subsequently took credit for stopping the election of the Republican Buck.

That's 55,000 votes on the more or less economic right to the environmentalist wacko Greens on the left who bled off 36,000 votes of their own.

Stronger candidates from the two major parties admittedly would have reduced this hemorrhaging. On the right, however, it's evidence of the voters' justifiable distrust of the Republican commitment to economic conservatism. 

If You Opt Out of Airport Naked Scans, Prepare to be Otherwise Intimidated

From Joe Sharkey for The New York Times here:

I have always disliked uniformed authorities shouting at me. So I was unhappy last week when some security screeners at O’Hare International Airport in Chicago started yelling.

“Opt out! We got an opt out!” one bellowed about me in a tone that people in my desert neighborhood in Tucson usually reserve for declaring, “Rattlesnake!”

Other screeners took up the “Opt out!” shout.


Sheeple. Led to the slaughter.

TSA Fondles Women and Children Refusing Airport Naked Body Scanners

Resist the government and the airlines by not flying! Don't submit! Boycott air travel until the scanners come out! The terrorists are laughing at us.

See why here.

Traveling to India: Outlandish, Luxurious, Unprecedented

"Probably not since the days of the Pharaohs or the more ludicrous Roman Emperors has a head of state travelled in such pomp and expensive grandeur as the President of the United States of America."

-- The UK Daily Mail, here

4 Libertarians, 1 Conservative Cost Republicans 5 Victories in US House

In AZ-8, the Libertarian took 4% of the vote in a 2 point race between Democrat Giffords and Republican Kelly.

In IN-2, the Libertarian took 5% of the vote in a 1 point race between Democrat Donnelly and Republican Walorski.

In IA-1, the Libertarian took 2% of the vote in a 1 point race between Democrat Braley and Republican Lange.

In MO-3, the Libertarian took 3% of the vote in a 2 point race between Democrat Carnahan and Republican Martin.

And in NY-23, the Conservative Hoffman took 6% of the vote in a 2 point race between Democrat Owens and Republican Doheny.

By garnering less than 40,000 votes these pests managed to disappoint the hopes of half a million Republicans in just five races. Democrats just love third parties.

Pricks.

Net Republican Pickups 61

Republican pickups number 64 gross, but the net must subtract Democrat pickups, which were 3: the at-large seat in Delaware vacated by primary defeated Mike Castle in the Senate race, Abercrombie's seat in Hawaii only very temporarily occupied by a Republican, and Cao's seat in Louisiana, who lost as the only Republican voting for Obamacare.

So net 61 Republican pickups, as shown at Real Clear Politics, with 8 races still not called.

Uncalled Races Update

Looks like NY-1 all of a sudden goes into the undecided category, with Real Clear Politics this morning showing Bishop vs. Altshuler at 50-50.

The others are (Democrat vs. Republican):

CA-11, McNerney vs. Harmer, 48-47

CA-20, Costa vs. Vidak, 49-51

IL-8, Bean vs. Walsh, 48-49

KY-6, Chandler vs. Barr, 50-50

NY-25, Maffei vs. Buerkle, 51-49

VA-11, Connolly vs. Fimian, 49-49

WA-2, Larsen vs. Koster, 50-50.

So we're back to 8, not 7, uncalled. Republicans still have 64 pickups.

Jesse Kelly Loses a Heartbreaker in Arizona 8th

See his remarks here.

A third party Libertarian candidate bled off over 10,000 votes to allow the liberal incumbent Democrat Gabrielle Giffords to win by less than 4000 votes. Thanks a lot, pest.

That leaves 7 House races still not called. Republicans still have 64 pickups.

Better luck next time, Marine.

Keith Olbermann Suspended For Donations to Democrats

He who accused Fox of shilling for political causes has been doing it himself, contributing monies to three Democrats: Conway, Grijalva and Giffords.

The Democrat Way: Projecting failings onto others which are more true of oneself, aka hypocrisy, the pot calling the kettle black, and liberal projection syndrome.

Lovely.

CNN has the story here.

A Housing Lotto?

Reuven Brenner for Forbes thinks a lottery might be the solution to the foreclosure and shadow inventory mess. He got the idea from Thomas Jefferson:

Shortly before Thomas Jefferson died, he tried to pay debts that amounted to $80,000 by disposing of land he owned through the use of a lottery, a well-established method at the time. He explained the rationale for such financing: "An article of property, insusceptible of division at all, or not without great diminution of its worth, is sometimes of so large value that no purchaser can be found ... The lottery is here a salutary instrument for disposing of it, where men run small risks for a chance of obtaining a high prize."

Go here to read how Brenner thinks it could be made to work.

Republicans Should Invest in Tea Futures

The Washington Examiner weighs in on the breadth and depth of the Republican victory on Tuesday:

Republicans took control of at least 19 additional state legislative bodies Tuesday for a total of 26 in which the party controls both chambers, compared with 21 for Democrats and with three still up for grabs. ... These developments have national implications, especially for redistricting. According to the Republican State Leadership Committee, Republicans now will play a role in redrawing the boundaries of a whopping 314 congressional districts.

Lots more detail here.

Tuesday, In a Nutshell

From the inimitable Pat McIlheran, for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel:

Nothing was so fatal to House Democrats, especially newbies, than to have voted for Obamacare. Dozens fell, including Rep. Steve Kagen (D-Appleton). The one Republican who favored it lost.

Running against it saved the jobs of 11 out of 34 Democrats who had opposed the bill, and a popular Democratic governor won West Virginia's Senate seat only after he reversed to say he'd oppose Obamacare.

In Wisconsin, the Senate race became a referendum after incumbent Russ Feingold stood firm for Obamacare. Victorious challenger Ron Johnson spent the campaign telling how it was the bill's passage that goaded him into running. At every turn, he said he was convinced it is a government takeover that will kill innovation.

He pointed out repeatedly that fear of the plan's costs were depressing the economy.

Johnson won, 52% to 47%.

You'll not want to miss the rest here. 

Why They Lost: House Democrat Casualty Lists for November 2, 2010

In politics it always pays to avoid controversy if you want to survive.

If I'm counting correctly, there are 64 Republican pickups from the Democrats in the House as of this morning over at Real Clear Politics, with 9 races still not called in Arizona (2), California (2), Illinois, Kentucky, New York, Virginia and Washington (Grijalva, Giffords, McNerney, Costa, Bean, Chandler, Maffei, Connolly and Larsen).

In 50 of these 64 races lost by Democrats, incumbents were defending seats, and 33 of those, or 66%, had voted FOR Obamacare in March, despite its unpopularity in the polls: Oberstar [L], Titus [f], Ortiz [L], Kirkpatrick [f], Mitchell [BD], Salazar [BDL], Markey [fBD], Pomeroy [BDL], Rodriguez [L], Hill [BDL], Boyd [BD], Klein, Spratt [L], Perriello [fL], Etheridge [L], Wilson [BDL], Boccieri [fL], Kosmas [f], Grayson [f], Halvorson [f], Foster, Hare, Schauer [f], Shea-Porter, Hall [L], Scott Murphy [BD], Driehaus [fL], Kilroy [f], Carney [BDL], Kanjorski [L], Dahlkemper [fBDL], Pat Murphy [fBD], and Kagen.

The remaining 17 incumbents lost despite voting AGAINST Obamacare: Minnick [fBD], Bright [fBDst], Sandlin [BD], Taylor [BDst], Nye [fBD], Boucher, Space [BDst], Marshall [BDst], Kratovil [fBD], Skelton [st], Childers [BDst], Adler [f], Teague [fst], McMahon [f], Arcuri [BD], Lincoln Davis [BDst] and Edwards.

20 of the 64 who lost were freshmen [marked f], representing 63% of the 32 freshmen elected with Obama in 2008, and 31% of the total.

Of 54 Blue Dogs on the coalition's list in March at the time of the Obamacare vote, 22 were defeated yesterday [marked BD], or 41% of that membership. 3 races were still too close to call: Chandler [st], Costa and Giffords.

Of 21 Stupak Amendment supporters who proved it by voting NO on Obamacare [marked st], 8 still lost yesterday. Of 32 more who proved they didn't really believe in the Stupak Amendment by voting YES on Obamacare [marked L], 16 lost.

The distribution of self-definitions shows that the group most likely to get booted was the fiscally conservative Blue Dogs (22 associations), undoubtedly because the voters saw that despite the self-identification their voting records were anything but fiscally prudent. "Methinks Thou dost protest too much."

Next most likely to get booted were freshmen (20 associations). Inexperience makes you vulnerable by definition. The vast majority of new business fails, which is why spawn are numbered in the millions.

Pro-lifers in name only come next in vulnerability (16 associations). It's best not to lie about matters so serious because you will be found out eventually.

The least vulnerable among these losing Democrats? Those who were pro-life and meant it (8 associations), and those who defined themselves not at all (7 associations).

Nine Years of Housing Inventory Owned by Banks

Which is why Chris Whalen calls the banks unwilling REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts). This is a national catastrophe which threatens our very way of life. No one can sell. No one can move.

As reported here by the Wall Street Journal on October 30th:

As of September, [banks] owned nearly 994,000 foreclosed homes, up 21% from a year earlier. The shadow inventory stood at 5.2 million homes, down 7% from a year earlier. Grand total: 107 months of inventory.

And Obama's off on another junket at taxpayer expense, costing an estimated $200 million PER DAY according to widely circulated reports.

Why are Americans putting up with this?

Disinformation Election Headlines at Real Clear Politics Repudiated by Republican Tsunami

Compare Walter Shapiro's "The Democratic Debacle" at Politics Daily today here:

America has seen tidal wave off-year elections before (three, in fact, in the past 16 years). But what was epic about the glub-glub election of 2010 is that even with months of warning most imperiled Democrats could not find high enough ground.

In the House, Republicans gained a minimum of 60 seats, dethroning Nancy Pelosi as House speaker, probably making this the GOP's biggest off-year triumph since (gulp!) 1938 once all the votes are counted.


And these headlines from Real Clear Politics, which admittedly disappeared rather suddenly in early October, for a good belly laugh on this historic day for America:

Saturday, October 9, 2010: Dem: Election Won't Be So Bad After All - Tim Fernholz, American Prospect

Friday, October 1, 2010: Democrats Will Hold the House and Senate - Bob Shrum, The Week

Wednesday, Sept. 22, 2010: Why the Generic Ballot May Underestimate Dems - Nate Silver, NY Times

Tuesday, Sept. 21, 2010: GOP Has Tough Road to Win House - Martin Frost, Politico

Monday, Sept. 20, 2010: Tying GOP to Tea Parties is D's Best Hope - Michael Tomasky, The Guardian

Sunday, Sept. 19, 2010: Don't Forget That the Bailouts Worked - Fareed Zakaria, Newsweek [If they had worked we'd know it and wouldn't need to be reminded. After all, we are paying for it right now . . . and Will. Be. Forever.]

Sunday, Sept. 19, 2010: Landslide Midterm is Hardly Certain - Charles Blow, New York Times [Did we mention a landslide is hardly certain?]

Saturday, Sept. 18, 2010: Landslide Midterm is Hardly Certain - Charles Blow, New York Times

Friday, Sept. 17, 2010: Faustian Deal w/Tea Party Will Cost GOP Dearly - Bob Shrum, The Week [Hahahahahahahaha!]

Thursday, Sept. 16, 2010: David Plouffe: Tea Parties Help Democrats - Lloyd Grove, The Daily Beast [Yeah right, when pigs fly in formation]

Wednesday, Sept. 15, 2010: Pelosi: Democrats "Absolutely" Will Retain the House - The Hill [When pigs fly upside down]

Sunday, Sept. 12, 2010: Maybe All Isn't Lost for Democrats - Dick Polman, Philadelphia Inquirer

Sunday, Sept. 12, 2010: Democrats Can Win the House - Ben Crair, The Daily Beast [When pigs fly]

Saturday, Sept. 11, 2010: 10 Things Dems Could Do to Win - Thomas Geoghegan, The Nation [No. 10: Become Republicans]

Friday, Sept. 10, 2010: Dems' Gloom May Be Premature - David Corn, Politics Daily

Thursday, Sept. 9, 2010: It's Good to Have Obama on the Campaign Trail - Gene Lyons, Salon

Thursday, Sept. 9, 2010: Dem Strategists Pooh-Pooh the Polls - Dana Milbank, Washington Post

Thursday, Sept. 2, 2010: Democrats Doomed? Not So Fast - Susan Estrich, Creators

In Victory, Representative Justin Amash Already Disappoints

In televised remarks last night thanking his supporters and outgoing Michigan 3rd Congressional District Representative Vern Ehlers, who stood out like a sore thumb in a sea of young faces assembled for the event, Justin Amash made two statements which sounded incredibly tone-deaf to his Republican political base.

He pledged himself to the cause of transforming America and transforming Michigan, and to the cause of bipartisanship. The former has been the clarion call of the Obama led Democrats, which the voters of America soundly rejected yesterday in an historic Tea Party inspired Republican takeover of the US House of Representatives: We don't need no trans-for-ma-tion, they might have been singing. The latter, bipartisanship, is hardly the message being trumpeted by the likes of Rush Limbaugh, whose  radio program's commercial breaks have been saturated with Justin Amash for Congress political ads in recent days. Americans have had quite enough of the (demolition) work being accomplished by a Congress controlled by Democrats and don't want Republicans to join in the destruction, but reverse it.

One can chalk it up to rookie mistakes, but Kent County Michigan voters would do well to prepare themselves for many more such disappointments from Justin Amash, whose kinship to president Obama's ideological habit of mind was revealed by the faux paus. Libertarians and Marxists have more in common than American liberals and conservatives have at issue between them.

From tax policies favoring the nuclear family to support for the defense of the state of Israel, Republicans may all too soon learn that the libertarian and pro-Arab ideas which undergird Amash's thinking can and will lead to some surprising votes in the next Congress. And one can well imagine how Amash may use his pledge to vote NO on bills he has not read as an excuse to avoid difficult votes in the US House. Illinois voters got plenty of that political cowardice from one Barack Hussein Obama during his tenure in their state senate, where he often voted PRESENT to avoid taking politically inexpedient stands. Look what that has got us. Amash's assiduous courting of the support of the fiscally moderate and pro-TARP Vern Ehlers should have already warned voters to regard Amash's incessant appeals to principle and consistency as expressions of politically winning aspirations, not of the reality. But you can fool most of the people most of the time, especially with lots of money from outside the district.

Buyer beware!

The story was reported here:

In his victory speech at Kent County GOP election night headquarters, he said the party should work to bring more Democrats and independents into the party to "transform this state" and "transform this country."

The congressman-elect thanked his predecessor, U.S. Rep. Vern Ehlers, calling him a model of integrity. Ehlers did not seek re-election.

Economic Distress Defines Today's Election

Exit polling results indicate that after two years with complete control of the White House, the US House of Representatives and the US Senate, Democrats have not done much to convince voters that things have appreciably improved:

Preliminary exit poll results underscored the economic distress defining the 2010 election. Eighty-eight percent of voters today said the national economy's in bad shape, nearly as many as the record 92 percent who said so two years ago. Only 14 percent say their own family's financial situation has improved since 2008.

And few see much respite: Compounding the political impact of the long downturn, 86 percent remain worried about the economy's direction in the next year, including half who are "very" worried.

The economy has deeply affected the broader public mood. Sixty-two percent say the country is seriously headed in the wrong direction (a record 74 percent said so in 2008, as the economy fell into the abyss). More broadly, 39 percent expect life for the next generation of Americans to be worse than it is today, compared with 32 percent who say better.

ABC News has much more here.

The Answer: Because He's Going Golfing For The Rest Of His Life For Free

The Question: Why Is Obama So Calm Right Now?

Jonathan Cohn for The New Republic has a different answer, however, here:

"I keep thinking back to that email that circulated in late 2008, when Obama was behind in the polls. It had a picture of him speaking at the convention with the caption 'I’ve got this.' Part of me thinks he still does. And part of me doesn’t."

Meet Nemesis Jonathan, starting today.

QE (Quantitative Easing): How to Bailout Banks by By-Passing Congress

TPC at Pragmatic Capitalism makes a persuasive case that we have government of the banks, by the banks, and for the banks:

[I]f you’re a bad bank with a few trillion dollars in bad mortgage paper you’re delighted if a AAA rated entity [The Federal Reserve] comes in and swaps those assets out with their highly rated paper. This is exactly what the Fed did in 2009 and make no mistake – it was hugely successful in clearing the credit markets and altering the composition of bank balance sheets. This was Mr. Bernanke’s goal after all. He was simply trying to clear the credit markets and improve the banking system and he believed that would ultimately fix the problems in the US economy. Unfortunately, he misdiagnosed a household balance sheet recession as a banking crisis. QE1 provided liquidity in the credit markets and it gave the banks some much needed breathing room. Unfortunately, the impact on the real economy was far more muted.

The author points out that QE II is now necessary because the banks are going to be in trouble again very soon as the next leg down in housing ensues.

Don't miss the rest here.