Thursday, April 2, 2026

So Lori Chavez-Deremer at the Department of Labor had a good long lie-in past NOON today and didn't get the initial claims numbers to FRED until 4:16PM EDT

 These numbers are routinely updated not long after the 8:30am press release in previous administrations.

 




 

Drudge is running propaganda for the Chicom bond market now

 

 
https://en.people.cn/n3/2026/0327/c90000-20440521.html

... "By allocating to RMB bonds, foreign investors can reduce portfolio volatility and improve risk-adjusted returns." ... "In the face of frequent geopolitical risks, the safe-haven role of RMB bonds has emerged," Yu said, adding that as the RMB internationalization progresses, demand for RMB assets as reserves is growing, and this is expected to support the growth of RMB bonds holdings by central banks and sovereign wealth funds.                                                                                        

LOL, what a crock.

Foreign investors own less than $1 trillion of Chinese debt, compared with over $9 trillion of U.S. debt.

... [U.S.] Treasuries are relied upon by global central banks as the pre-eminent reserve asset, since the $30tn market for the securities is the biggest and deepest in the world. ...

More



 




Trump fires another woman


 

Trump fires Attorney General Pam Bondi

... “Pam Bondi is a Great American Patriot and a loyal friend, who faithfully served as my Attorney General over the past year,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

“Pam did a tremendous job overseeing a massive crackdown in Crime across our Country, with Murders plummeting to their lowest level since 1900,” the president wrote.

“We love Pam, and she will be transitioning to a much needed and important new job in the private sector, to be announced at a date in the near future,” Trump said.

Bondi, in a statement on X, said, “Over the next month I will be working tirelessly to transition the office of Attorney General to the amazing Todd Blanche before moving to an important private sector role I am thrilled about, and where I will continue fighting for President Trump and this Administration.” ...

Rep. Thomas Massie, a Kentucky Republican whose bill mandating that the DOJ release all files related to Epstein became law in late 2025, said in an X post, “I support Trump firing Pam Bondi. Do you?”

“I hope the next AG will release all the Epstein files according to the law and follow up with investigations, prosecutions, and arrests,” Massie said. ...

 

Some foreign holders of U.S. Treasury securities are selling them to buy oil, which is denominated in DOLLARS, not in yuan

 Thank you for your attention to this matter.

DXY: 99.893 

Foreign central banks sell US Treasuries in wake of Iran war



 

Polls: Support for Military Operation Drops Below 40% in RCP Average

 


"The 14th Amendment was never that great"

 


War for Peace!


 

Wednesday, April 1, 2026

She's so . . . u n u s u a l

 Sotomayor: Do You Want to 'Unnaturalize People?'

... Sauer replied, “No, we believe the court should do what it did in Sessions v. Morales-Santana, where there was a ruling that would have deprived people who are already citizens of citizenship, and the court said this applies prospectively only. We think that’s the appropriate course here. ..."


 

This is so great

 


Drudge version:

 
Actual version:
 

... Rubio, who was born to Cuban parents who were not American citizens at the time of his birth ...
 
 
The Newsweek story simply omits the crux interpretum involved in "and subject to" in the 14th Amendment.

Rubio's parents were subject to the jurisdiction of Cuba, and therefore so was he, making none of them citizens.

Same was true of Native Americans, none of whom were made citizens by the 14th Amendment. They were subject to The Nations, which the federal government recognized by treaties as nations within the American nation. Native Americans received citizenship by law passed in 1924.  

14th Amendment:

All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens ...                                               

It is high time that "and subject to the jurisdiction thereof" be treated seriously and not superfluously.  

 

Is NATO allowed to use U.S. bases within the United States, say, to help Ukraine against Russia?

 Rubio: Why Are We In NATO When They Won't Allow U.S. To Use Their Bases?

Peter Morici doesn't get it that Tehran already threatens the global order, without nuclear weapons, because it already decides who may safely pass through the Strait of Hormuz


 

 ... With nuclear weapons in hand, Iran could threaten the global order with impunity. ... Tehran would recover, build atomic weapons, decide who may pass safely through the Strait of Hormuz, and slowly strangle the global economy by demanding tribute for access to precious Gulf oil and LNG.

Very odd essay.

Here

Some Golden Age: The 10-year trend for percent change for ADP private payrolls is down

 


Trump keeps calling Iran's leadership "new" as if that means there's been real change when the current president assumed office in July 2024 lol

 Trump says Iran’s president asked for ceasefire, but U.S. wants Hormuz Strait open first

President Donald Trump on Wednesday said Iran’s “New Regime President” has asked the U.S. for a ceasefire. ...

A broken clock is right twice a day

 Trump calls U.S. ‘STUPID’ for birthright citizenship after attending Supreme Court arguments

The U.S. has military bases in all Persian Gulf countries except Iran, from which Trump has launched attacks on Iran which will have the effect of bankrupting those countries


 There is something deeply insane about all this.

Only Saudi Arabia and the UAE have pipelines which can by-pass the Strait of Hormuz and replace a part of the lost export capacity. Production will have to be curtailed because there's nowhere to go with it. And everyone in the world will be poorer for it.

 


 

Tuesday, March 31, 2026

Massive oil shortages incoming, tanker traffic down 90% in March through the Strait of Hormuz

 



In other words, this would mean Trump is going to cut and run from the Persian Gulf just like he cut and ran from the Red Sea on May 6, 2025

 Trump Tells Aides He’s Willing to End War Without Reopening Hormuz: Administration officials assess that forcing the waterway back open would mean extending the military mission

WASHINGTON—President Trump told aides he’s willing to end the U.S. military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, administration officials said, likely extending Tehran’s firm grip on the waterway and leaving a complex operation to reopen it for a later date.

In recent days, Trump and his aides assessed that a mission to pry open the chokepoint would push the conflict beyond his timeline of four to six weeks. He decided that the U.S. should achieve its main goals of hobbling Iran’s navy and its missile stocks and wind down current hostilities while pressuring Tehran diplomatically to resume the free flow of trade. If that fails, Washington would press allies in Europe and the Gulf to take the lead on reopening the strait, the officials said. ...


 

It's embarrassing to have a whiny little baby for president demonstrating everyday that he's not up to the job of being the leader of the free world

 Trump lashes out at UK and France, telling allies ‘the U.S.A. won’t be there to help you anymore’

... “You’ll have to start learning how to fight for yourself, the U.S.A. won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us. Iran has been, essentially, decimated. The hard part is done. Go get your own oil!,” he concluded. ... For its part, Tehran continues to demonstrate its ability to dominate and derail maritime traffic in the strait, hitting a fully laden Kuwaiti oil tanker in the anchorage area of Dubai’s port earlier Tuesday. 

Monday, March 30, 2026

J. D. Vance: Republicans have to break the Senate filibuster and destroy the country in order to save it

Remember when W said to CNN's Candy Crowley in December 2008 that he had abandoned free market principles in order to save the free market system?

We got Obama, a foreclosure crisis for six million, banks failed by the hundreds, and jobs didn't recover for six years and five months.

Why is it always the Republicans with these paraprosdokians?  

 



Trump says "we will conclude our lovely ‘stay’ in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalinization plants!)"

 Trump says U.S. will destroy Iran’s oil wells, Kharg Island without deal to ‘immediately’ reopen Hormuz Strait

He thinks this is a bargaining chip instead of a requirement.

Fed chair Jerome Powell didn't say the oil shock will be transitory, but he might as well have

 


 ... Powell said raising rates now could have negative effects on the economy later. He noted that Fed rate moves have a lagged impact on the economy, so tightening here wouldn’t help the inflationary impact of the Iran war.

“By the time the effects of a tightening in monetary policy take effect, the oil price shock is probably long gone, and you’re weighing on the economy at a time when it’s not appropriate. So the tendency is to look through any kind of a supply shock,” he added. ...

More.

Mistaken yet again.

We have permanently higher prices across the board as a result of the COVID shock. 

Strategic victory for Iran (and China): Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz is the primary result of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran so far

... So far in March, the first full month of war, barely six vessels per day on average have traversed the narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the world, in either direction. That compares with about 135 a day in normal times, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.

Over that time, 80% of the small number of oil tankers exiting the strait have been Iranian — or belong to countries with which it is on cordial terms, the figures show. ...

Out of the 110 individual ships that left the gulf this month, more than 36% were sanctioned Iranian ships or part of the so-called dark fleet serving Tehran, data compiled by Bloomberg show. For oil tankers, 21 out of 35 that have exited had direct Iranian ties — but most of the remainder went to nations with whom Tehran has a friendly relationship. 

Until this war, one long-held assumption around Hormuz was that Iran would never attempt to close the strait, for fear of risking its own exports, a vital economic lifeline. In fact, ship-tracking data suggest that Tehran’s oil has continued to flow — almost entirely to China — even as other ships are stranded and producers in the region have been left scrambling for alternatives or forced to stop producing as storage fills up.

Iran exported roughly 1.8 million barrels a day this month, a nearly 8% increase from its average over 2025, according to figures from data intelligence firm Kpler as of March 26. That likely facilitated hundreds of millions of dollars of oil revenue for Tehran, a Bloomberg News analysis shows. ...

More



Another impediment to human life in orbit, and on the moon or Mars

 

 
 ... Sperm in microgravity still move, they just cannot find their way. The function that appears to be disrupted is navigation, the ability to orient and move with purpose toward a destination. ... 


If the world had any brains it would skip the Semite wars in the Middle East over oil and switch back to coal while transitioning to nuclear and renewables

Known coal reserves are all over the place and can power the world three times longer than known oil reserves at current consumption rates.
 
South Korea, Japan, China, and India can more easily switch right now to coal from the LNG lost due to the Iran war, Taiwan, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Vietnam, and the Philippines not so much.
 
  
... India is another major importer of Middle Eastern L.N.G. that is likely to pivot significantly to coal, according to Wood Mackenzie. It has vast domestic reserves, and since the outbreak of the war, New Delhi has issued directives to maximize coal-fired output, ordering coal plants to operate at full capacity for three months starting in April. 
 
China likewise possesses huge domestic coal reserves, which, alongside gas piped in from Russia and a world-leading wind and solar fleet tied to the world’s largest energy storage network, have shielded the country from the worst of the L.N.G. supply shocks. ...
 

 


Sunday, March 29, 2026

The latest UKMTO JMIC Advisory on 3/29 indicates 12 tankers transited the Strait of Hormuz in the last 7 days vs. 2 previously, 78 through the Bab al-Mandab Strait vs. 130 previously

 Persian Gulf Activity: 1.7/day last week vs. 0.3/day prior week

Red Sea Activity: 11.1/day last week vs. 18.6/day prior week 

JMIC Advisory Mar 29

JMIC Advisory Mar 22


Cry me a river about Iran's water

 The destruction in the early hours of June 6 [2023] of Ukraine’s massive Nova Kakhovka dam on the Dnieper River is a dangerous escalation of the war between Ukraine and Russia. It risks massive human and ecological consequences to communities downstream being hit by vast floodwaters, and also threatens a potentially catastrophic nuclear accident. World leaders are also calling it a war crime. ...

Kakhovka Dam, one of the largest in Europe, was built in the late 1950s to provide hydroelectric power, irrigation water, and improved navigation on the Dnieper River which flows from Russia through Belarus and Ukraine before emptying into the Black Sea. When full—and it was full when it was destroyed—the reservoir contains 18 cubic kilometers (nearly 5 trillion gallons) of water. That’s around four times the volume of California’s largest reservoir, the Shasta reservoir, and about half the volume of Lake Mead, the largest reservoir in the United States. The reservoir behind the dam also supplies critical cooling water to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, and feeds water into the North Crimea Canal, delivering nearly 80% of Crimea’s water. ...

Water and water systems have been the targets of attacks from the beginning of this war. Researchers have documented more than 50 such attacks on dams, water supply systems, city water treatment plants, pipelines, and other facilities. At the beginning of the war, the Russians destroyed a small dam blocking water flows to Crimea. And civilian water treatment and delivery systems have been widely attacked by the Russians, cutting water supplies and sanitation services for hundreds of thousands of people. Meanwhile, the Ukrainians cut levees to flood areas north of Kyiv to halt the initial Russian armored assault on the capital. But until now, there had been nothing as massive or devastating as this event. 

Attacks on dams are war crimes, as explicitly noted in Article 56 of Protocol I and Article 15 of Protocol II of the 1977 Protocols to the Geneva Conventions. These international laws prohibit attacks on infrastructure “containing dangerous forces” including explicitly “dams” and “dykes” if such attacks “may cause the release of dangerous forces and consequent severe losses among the civilian population.” Despite these prohibitions, conflicts over water and attacks on water systems are on the rise, with a dramatic increase in the past two decades.

There is precedent for Russian destruction of dams on the Dnieper River. In August 1941, during World War II, the retreating Soviet Army destroyed another dam on the Dnieper at Zaporizhzhia, the Dnieper Dam, to prevent it from falling into the hands of the advancing Nazis. At the time it was the largest dam in the world. The subsequent flooding reportedly killed tens of thousands of people downstream. ...

More.

 

 Trump threatens Iran's water supply in astonishing 'war crime' escalation as defiant Tehran tears up nuclear treaty


 

Laying waste to Iran would solve a number of problems. 


 

Let me guess, none of these are on CENTCOM's target list

 


CENTCOM boasts hitting 10k+ targets in one month of war, and yet Iran continues to wage it successfully against Israel, the UAE, and others

 The point of war is to stop the enemy's ability to wage it.

That clearly has not happened in one month of operations.

The reason is because, despite all the sound and fury, the U.S. and Israel are not waging a real war.

War means destroying Iran's country utterly, depriving it of food and water, electricity and heat, shelter, income from oil, and imports of materials.

They can't bring themselves to do that. They don't have the nerve.

Worse, Iran is successfully depriving its neighbors of some of those things. 

Sending in boots on the ground in these unacceptable circumstances is simply playing with more soldiers' lives.

Get serious or go home. 

 


 

Diamond and Silk weren't too keen in January 2016 on Kelly Megyn hosting another Republican debate after the fat pigs debate in August 2015

Trump boycotted the January 28, 2016 debate in Des Moines, Iowa.

 


Yeah, well, what you get with the Kelly Megyn Approach is just more shapeshifting to make a buck

 Megyn Kelly: If Republicans Take The "Mark Levin Approach" In November, They Deserve What They're Going To Get

... You understand the sacrifice that our troops make and the risk they take when they sign up. I would submit to the jury, it is not to die in a war for Israel. ... 

Republicans were always going to lose in November, well before the Iran attack on Feb 28.

 


 


Saturday, March 28, 2026

Silver is down 2.43% ytd per apmex, gold is up 4.04%

Silver:  $70.52 USD - ($1.76) USD -2.43% YTD

Gold:  $4,509.40 USD $175.10 USD 4.04% YTD
 

Your reminder that today's so-called conservatives look at US institutions and traditions as impediments, same as liberals do

I am sick of TSA's illegal searches and seizures, and of DHS' deadly incompetence in Minneapolis and at Barksdale AFB.

The author below lists four recent incidents of terrorism in the United States in support of funding DHS outside the filibuster so that this incompetence can continue!  

They're not keeping us safe!

Millions of illegals remain in America who were supposed to Remain in Mexico!

Fire them all! These post-911 innovations aren't working. 

 

Terrorism trumps America again:

Drone swarms of unknown origin numbering 12-15 interfered with B-52 attack runs to Iran at Barksdale AFB in Louisiana for four hours per incident the week of March 9

 Sophisticated drones attacked Louisiana’s Barksdale bomber base 

... Barksdale AFB does not have air defenses, nor does it have fighter jets that can take down drones.

The airbase does have some electronic countermeasures that were designed to disable GPS and the datalinks between the drones and their remote operators. The electronic countermeasures failed to work. ...

The drones could have come from a potential adversary, China being best equipped to produce a drone of the type that flew over Barksdale. From what has been observed, the drone design surpasses almost anything in the US arsenal.

What we know is that the drones had extraordinary range, could resist broad spectrum jamming, and featured non-commercial signal characteristics. Even more provocatively, the drones used various ingress and egress routes and operated in dispersed patterns, making traceability (via trying to triangulate on signals) virtually impossible.

We do not know if the drones transmitted information while they were over the base or stored information they transmitted later, or whether the drones may have had satellite links.

... realistically the US is years away from a real domestic counter drone capability.                                                                                                                                                                                                                Hot Air covered the story yesterday.

Oh, poor baby

 Trump: Thune, Johnson "Made My Job A Lot Harder"

Tanker traffic out of the Persian Gulf has been cut by 98% in one month because of the Iran War, effectively reducing the world's primary energy inputs through the Strait of Hormuz by 20%

The UAE is bypassing the Strait of Hormuz with 1.9 million barrels per day now coming out of Fujairah via its overland pipeline, and Saudi Arabia's overland pipeline west to Yanbu is moving about 4.5 million barrels per day out through the Red Sea, but that's not the 20 million barrels per day lost due to the war, and no LNG is moving at all.

Pakistan and Bangladesh get two thirds of their LNG from the Gulf, Taiwan gets one third of its LNG. Taiwan says its has eleven days' supply remaining. Many others are also severely affected by the cut-off of LNG from Qatar. About 20 LNG tankers are trapped in the Gulf, half the global fleet available for charter.

Meanwhile Iran has increased export of its oil from 1 million barrels per day in February to 2 million in March, 90% of which goes to China, and Iran is now charging tolls to vessels to exit the Gulf along its coast, which occurs only under Iranian escort. 

 

 


If JP Morgan analysts are correct, April will be a month of rolling oil delivery stops from the Persian Gulf starting in E/SE Asia and East Africa April 1, Europe April 10, North America April 15, and Australia April 20

 


Trump again makes new record high disapproval and record low approval in Real Clear Politics average: 56.8% and 41.0%

 


Donald Trump . . .

 


The Houthis have joined Iran by restarting hostilities against Israel

Trump couldn't finish the Houthis off last year, and now they come back to bite.

Oil tankers filling at Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port in the Red Sea because it was too dangerous in the Persian Gulf may soon have nowhere to fill.

All because Donald Trump has been mistaken twice in the Middle East.

The energy crisis will soon be a global energy catastrophe, leading to an inflation catastrophe, leading to an economic catastrophe. And maybe a world war.

 

 


Tiger needs a new d r i v e r

 Tiger Woods arrested for DUI after rollover car crash, Florida sheriff says


 

DHS will remain shutdown, GOP-controlled U.S. House passes 60-day continuing resolution to fund DHS, ignoring the plan passed by the GOP-controlled Senate earlier

 The Senate returns in 2 weeks to take up the matter.

Kristi Noem did a really fantastic job running DHS, didn't she?

 


 

Friday, March 27, 2026

GOP-controlled US House says Nay Nay to GOP-controlled Senate bill funding DHS, meaning more DHS shutdown, et cetera et cetera et cetera!


 

 TSA funding update: House GOP spikes DHS funding proposal, extending shutdown that’s caused delays

... The stopgap measures advanced out of the House Rules Committee on Friday, teeing up a vote as soon as later this evening. ... Any such effort would need to go back to the Senate for final approval and would extend the shutdown. It is also not likely to pass in the Senate, where most lawmakers have already left town. Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., on Friday called the proposal “dead on arrival.” ... 

Keystone Kash e-mail hacked by Iran

It's good to know that the head of the FBI has everything under control lol. 

 Iran-linked hackers breach FBI director’s personal email, publish excerpts online

 


 

Reality has a funny way of jamming seemingly interminable rosy expectations

 Markets now see the Fed’s next move as a potential rate hike as inflation fears mount

... Traders in the futures market pushed the probability of a rate increase by the end of 2026 to 52% on Friday morning, the first time it has crossed the 50% threshold, according to the CME Group FedWatch tool. ... 


 

Senate Democrats get partial win, bill funding DHS passes without further funding for ICE and parts of Customs and Border Protection, which were massively funded last year by the Big Ugly Bill

Senate advances DHS funding bill, tees up House vote to end shutdown as TSA airport lines stretch 

... After weeks of Republicans fighting Democrats on their calls to remove funding for Immigration and Customs Enforcement from any potential deal, the bill does exactly that. It would fund all of DHS except for ICE and parts of Customs and Border Protection, though it does not include the changes to ICE’s immigration enforcement practices that Democrats had demanded. 

... The shutdown began in February in the weeks after federal agents shot and killed two U.S. citizens in Minneapolis as part of a federal immigration crackdown. Democrats demanded changes in ICE and DHS more broadly and refused to fund the department. ...

Global oil in storage was 8,210 million barrels to start 2026 with consumption at 105 mbpd, meaning a 78-day cushion, analyst says we're moving from absorption phase which began Feb 28 to fragility now

 Brent oil tops $110 again after Chinese ships are turned away from Strait of Hormuz

... “The oil market did not underreact to the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz; it absorbed it,” said Paola Rodriguez-Masiu, chief oil analyst at Rystad Energy.

“For nearly four weeks, markets have shown remarkable resilience … supported by a combination of pre-war surplus, crude-on-water, and policy barrels that provided a temporary buffer and kept prices contained. That phase is now ending,” she said.

According to Rystad, the global system has shifted from “buffered to fragile” after weeks of supply losses and inventory drawdowns, leaving little room to absorb further shocks.

Nearly 17.8 million barrels per day of oil and fuel flows through the Strait of Hormuz have been disrupted, the firm estimated, with close to 500 million barrels of total liquids lost so far.

 

Thursday, March 26, 2026

TACO Trump threatens Iran to hurry up, then gives them more time

 Trump says Iranian negotiators ‘better get serious soon, before it is too late’ (0648 hours)

Trump extends pause on attacking Iran energy facilities to April 6 (1619 hours)

 

U.S. Treasury yields are ringing the alarm at Mad King Ludwig

 


Trump's whopper of the week: The ten vessels Iran let through Hormuz on March 22-23 were a present to the United States lol

 Trump says Iran let 10 oil ships through Strait of Hormuz as ‘present’ to U.S.

... “That was three days ago, and I didn’t think much about it,” he said. ...                                     

No kidding.

This cockamamie idea sounds like it was thought up by Howard Lutnick.

The vessels went to China and India, and transited along the coast of Iran after passing between Qeshm and Larak and did not take the usual central passage, so they probably had to pay tolls. 

I wonder if they sent the bill to Mexico? 🤣

Sounds more like a gift to our competitors and enemies than to us. 

UKMTO reported ten transits two days ago, but not all were oil, and some were outbound and some inbound; this summary is probably what someone showed to Trump and they just assumed it was all oil outbound when it was not: 


 

Initial Claims updated one eternity later

The Trump administration thinks so little of its one truly bright spot that it makes us wait to enjoy it.

Raw claims average below 195k in March to date, only the third month averaging below 200k in his second term to date.

You'd think that they'd be out there trumpeting these continued historically low numbers, but it is evident that they don't really care.

It's political malpractice. 

 



The latest JMIC Advisory Note says transits through the Strait of Hormuz average one per day for Mar 24-25

 




One man ruins the world, except for Russia

 


Trump's dysfunctional government can't even get the weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment chart at FRED updated on time

 This happens repeatedly under Trump and his loser appointees.

We're still waiting for today's update even though the news release came out as usual at 0830 hours.