Thursday, September 25, 2025

Real GDP since the Trump tax reform in 2017 still lags the post-war rate by 27.5%

Today's third estimate for 2Q2025 real GDP came in 0.5 points hotter at 3.8% on increased consumer spending: 

Real GDP was revised up 0.5 percentage point from the second estimate, primarily reflecting an upward revision to consumer spending. 

The big picture, however, indicates that the compound annual growth rate of real GDP from this report comes in at only 2.50% per annum for the eight years since 2Q2017. The corresponding figure for the sixty years 1947-2007 is 3.45% per annum. Economic growth since the year of the Trump Tax Reform late in 2017 therefore undershoots that post-war rate by 27.5%.

And measured from 2007 instead of 2017, real GDP growth has been even worse. Over the eighteen years since 2Q2007, real GDP has grown at a compound annual rate of just 1.97%, almost 43% worse than the pre-2007 rate of 3.45%.

Lower economic growth since the Great Financial Crisis remains the great unsolved economic problem of our time.

People who say "Just wait for the Trump tax cuts of 2025 to kick in" don't get it. There's nothing broadly, fundamentally, permanently different coming down the pike from that legislation. It's a continuation of the 2017 legislation, plus some temporary sweeteners.

A serious country would care about all this, but that would not be us. 

Wednesday, September 24, 2025

I mean, c'mon, even Tylenol says don't take Tylenol

 


When you think it's 2025 but it's really just 1987 all over again

 



Jimmy Kimmel's opening riposte is so old it goes back to at least 1577 in the mouth of Luis de León, whose followers established The School of Salamanca


 

 Unamuno was removed from his two university chairs by the dictator General Miguel Primo de Rivera in 1924, over the protests of other Spanish intellectuals. ... Unamuno returned to Spain after the fall of General Primo de Rivera's dictatorship in 1930 and took up his rectorship again. It is said in Salamanca that the day he returned to the university, Unamuno began his lecture by saying, as Fray Luis de León had done after four years of imprisonment by the Spanish Inquisition, "As we were saying yesterday..." (Decíamos ayer...).       

More

Charlie Gasparino for The New York Post admits Kimmel is profitable for Disney, but the Nexstar and Sinclair stations which banned Kimmel stupidly took the hit last night

 ... But Disney, the parent of ABC, where “Jimmy Kimmel Live!” airs, squeezes a lot of juice out of Kimmel, people there tell me. There are affiliate fees for networks that pick up Kimmel’s programming, online ads and sponsorship deals. He hosts the Oscars, which helps with brand building. 

The segments featuring his sidekick, Guillermo Rodriguez, are also a draw for advertisers, these people say. Taken together, all this means Kimmel, despite his annual salary of $16 million (nearly as much as his ad-revenue losses), a massive staff (200 people working on the show) and falling ratings, is profitable, my sources at Disney say. ...

More. 

Just say NO! to Tylenol TM lol

 


Tuesday, September 23, 2025

Mad King Ludwig stops taking his stupid pills, appears to reverse himself 180 degrees on Ukraine

 We shall see.

 


 

Nexstar and Sinclair pleasing their masters at the FCC, which holds the fate of their merger plans in its hands, Disney not so much

 Nexstar, Sinclair won’t air Jimmy Kimmel’s return on ABC affiliates  

... ABC parent Disney announced Monday it would bring back “Jimmy Kimmel Live!” after pausing the show indefinitely last week following comments by host Kimmel ... 

Nexstar is currently seeking FCC approval for its proposed $6.2 billion merger with fellow broadcast station owner Tegna. And while it has yet to ink a deal, Sinclair is also exploring merger options for its broadcast stations.

Disney, meanwhile, is seeking regulatory approval for a deal in which the NFL would acquire 10% of the company’s ESPN in exchange for NFL Media assets.

Wowie: Gold to $3,790.82, silver to $44.17

 Reuters.

Monday, September 22, 2025

Wow: Gold to $3747.08, silver to $43.99

Gold hits fresh record high as investors eye further rate cuts
 
... Spot gold rose 1.7% to a fresh record high of $3,747.08 per ounce, as of 02:06 p.m. ET (1806 GMT). U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled 1.9% higher at $3,775.10. ... 
 
Spot silver rose 2.1% to $43.99 per ounce, a more than 14-year high. ...

30-year expert on H-1B visa politics can't even spell it

 


I wonder if even she, for that fleeting moment, thought the whole thing was cringe, too

 


This video which she posted on the 12th, however, just two days after the assassination, was itself pretty cringe. The video appears to have been edited since then. The reporter quotes what she said in the unedited version, which I remember.

I dunno, maybe it's true, maybe English is his Zweitsprache

 


Saturday, September 20, 2025

This is risible propaganda posing as news from The Hill, which is the same Nexstar which pulled Kimmel's show

Is DePauw University also a subsidiary of Nexstar?

And how much was this guy paid to write this? 

Kimmel's Ratings in Steep Decline, ABC Looked for Way Out


Tyrant Trump and his FCC want to cancel comedic speech over the public airwaves which 75,019,682 people who didn't vote for him find funny

Don't the PUBLIC airwaves have to serve them, too? 

 

... Through this public spectrum for radio and TV stations, the federal agency has the right to regulate broadcasting and requires each network “by law to operate its station in the ‘public interest, convenience and necessity.’ Generally, this means it must air programming that is responsive to the needs and problems of its local community of license,” according to the FCC website. ...

Typically, the discussion of whether a station violated the FCC’s guidelines centers around children’s programming, a cut to news content, or obscenity — such as Janet Jackson’s wardrobe malfunction during the Super Bowl in 2004. ...

 

Friday, September 19, 2025

That's exactly what Trump's FCC did

 

Jimmy Kimmel was so bad for ABC's business that he was kept on the air for only two decades

 


IMF: Global debt in 2024 was $251 trillion, 235% of global GDP

 


I keep hearing that gold is soaring because of continued dollar weakness lol

On the contrary, gold has risen despite continued dollar strength.

The enormous gains for gold in 2024 and 2025 are not explained by a round trip in the dollar index from 120 to 129 and back again. That's just a little side show in the bigger picture of dollar strength.

 


 

The dollar index has made steady progress out of the pit of despair at 85.46 in July 2011 under Barack Obama, the enemy of fossil fuels, to a place of relative strength today averaging above 120 in 2022 and 2023, 123 in 2024, and 125 in the first half of 2025.

Speaking of a weak dollar in this context is laughable.

Maybe the dollar is so strong again because the United States has become a net exporter of oil. The 1975 ban on oil exports was lifted in December 2015. Net imports of oil went negative for the first time since 1950 in 2020.

Gold is probably so strong in part because of increasing debt globally, which like rising prosperity helps drive demand for it as a hedge. Extreme poverty gripped half the world in 1950 but by 2020 it afflicts just 10%. Meanwhile gold production has nearly tripled over the period.

As a percentage of global GDP, global debt has gone from just above 100% of global GDP in 1980 to a whopping 235% of global GDP in 2024.

 



 

 

 

Wednesday, September 17, 2025

FOMC lowers the Funds Rate 0.25 to 4.25 on a vote of 11-1

Trump's new cry baby appointee Stephen Miran voted against it because he wanted a cut of 0.5 instead lol.

Only "one official did not want any cuts, including Wednesday’s."

Story here

Biden gutted the Strategic Petroleum Reserve by 200k barrels over 12 months in 2022, Trump's been in office 8 months and has done BUPKIS to refill it

 Spot WTI averaged nearly $95/barrel in 2022.

In 1H2025 it averaged $68.

The price fell again in August to an average just under $65, too.

Trump could be refilling at cheap prices, but he's too busy with nonsense.

 


The Dominionist wackos in MAGA allied with Peter Thiel continue to spew falsehood

... Trae Stephens, a Thiel ally and self-proclaimed “arms dealer” who co-founded the drone warfare company Anduril (another warped Lord of the Rings reference), frames his work as part of a quest to “carry out God’s command to bring his Kingdom to earth as it is in Heaven.” Stephens’s wife, Michelle, co-founded ACTS 17 Collective (Acknowledging Christ in Technology and Society), which evangelizes to tech workers and is hosting Thiel’s Antichrist lectures. ...

More.

There is no such command.

Some Christians still understand that:

[Turning Point USA speaker] Leigh-Allyn Baker rallied her fellow parishioners at Conduit Church in Franklin, Tennessee, 20 miles south of the capital, to not let Charlie Kirk’s death be in vain.

In a video the church played for a service Sept. 14, Baker encouraged the audience to speak more boldly and publicly for their conservative values than ever before. ...

Conduit congregants welcomed Baker’s video with whoops, shouts and tears, signaling a shared grief. Among those congregants, one person wore a hat that read: “Pray hard, lift heavy, stay deadly.”

But Christians who are angry over Kirk’s death cannot be violent or retaliatory, [Conduit pastor Darren] Tyler said in his sermon.

“Some of you are angry. Some of you want revenge,” Tyler said. “The Bible speaks very clearly: ‘Vengeance is mine, says the Lord,’” Tyler said. “If you’re thinking about it, I’m rebuking you right now. We do not make Jesus king by force.” ...

Look who's blaming the victims again!

 These guys slapped ginormous tariffs on China and now complain China is straining relations.

They also blamed Ukraine for starting the war with Russia.

The chutzpah.

 

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent once agreed to call two different houses his “principal residence” at the same time just like Lisa Cook ROFLMAO

 

LOL I don't recall candidate John Fetterman being upset AT ALL with Joe Biden playing the authoritarian card on September 1, 2022

 

 
... Well, I mean, I'm consistent about that. You know, any kinds of extreme rhetoric, left or right, is, is really dangerous. ...
 
 

They're painting the left as terrorists for a reason, but they don't have the courage to name them . . . yet

Designated terror organizations can be legally attacked using the US military. They'll do the designating, and then they'll do the attacking.

That's why they are doing this.

That's why they are fascists. 

Stop Left-Wing Terror Networks and Their Funding

Tuesday, September 16, 2025

In addition to noncombatant drug runners, what Trump is executing is this magnificent old tree to make room for his stupid new $200 million ballroom

 


Trump is not faithfully executing the April 2024 law which required TikTok to be divested from Chicom ByteDance or be shut down in the United States by January 19, 2025

 Biden signs Israel, Ukraine, TikTok bill into law

Oracle and Silver Lake part of TikTok investor group as Trump extends deal deadline [for the fourth time]

Impeach the bastard.

Gold to $3,702.95

 


So Tyler Robinson admitted to his trans roommate in text messages revealed today that he used his grandfather's rifle, and that he committed the crime because he had had enough of Charlie Kirk's hatred

Can we move on now from all the broad-brush-stroking, conspiracy theories, and hysteria?
 
 
 

... Several of the messages, which were detailed in charging documents shared with CNBC later Tuesday, contained romantic sentiments.

The roommate told police that, on the day of the shooting, Robinson texted, “Drop what you’re doing. Look under my keyboard,” the documents alleged.

The roommate looked and found a note stating, “I had the opportunity to take out Charlie Kirk and I’m going to take it.”

After reading the note, the roommate texted Robinson, “What?????????????? You’re joking, right????”

Robinson replied that, “To be honest I had hoped to keep this secret till I died of old age. I am sorry to involve you.”

The roommate asked, “you weren’t the one who did it right????”

Robinson wrote back, “I am, I’m sorry.”

When the roommate asked why Robinson did it, he replied, “I had enough of his hatred. Some hate can’t be negotiated out.”

Robinson also texted that he had been planning the shooting for “a bit over a week,” according to the charging documents.

And he discussed dropping a firearm at the university after fleeing, texting the roommate, “If I am able to grab my rifle unseen, I will have left no evidence.”

He added: “I’m wishing I had circled back and grabbed it as soon as I got to my vehicle, I’m worried what my old man would do if I didn’t bring back grandpa’s rifle.” ...

If you paid attention to NeverTrump, you knew Charlie Kirk was a phony ten years ago, which is why he promoted fellow phony J. D. Vance to be VP

 


 

Kirk hated Trump but saw an opportunity, claims ex-employee...

 

Well no shit.

The GOP today is riddled with sycophants who formerly opposed Trump but support him now. Those of us who supported Trump in 2015-2016 took great pleasure in pointing it out as they came crawling back.

Many who changed their minds about supporting Trump defend themselves today by saying they changed their minds because they were persuaded by reflection on the Trumpist agenda, but none of that is becoming the law of the land today through the GOP Congress. It's all by executive order and lawfare. None of this will last, except for the ka-ching ka-ching.

In Charlie Kirk's case, flipping to Trump has been bery bery good for Turning Point USA, which went from a lousy little $2 million operation in 2015 to an $80 million one by 2022.

I mean, how many dollars will it take before we actually get some of that fiscal responsibility, free markets, and limited government which it is supposed to promote, seeing that we're headed for a $2 TRILLION deficit by September 30th?

 

Considering how awful Trump is now on just about everything compared with his first term, it must be that they all flipflopped only for the money, the power, and the influence.  

 


 

  

Democratic Socialists of America conduct first poll, find 74% of likely Democrat voters agree with higher taxes, more regulation, and more public ownership of industry

 Socialism going mainstream? New poll suggests might be...

... This survey marks the first formal poll the DSA Fund has released — the latest example of the left seeking to professionalize its operations and create infrastructure to build on its recent electoral victories. The organization said it plans to share its findings with hundreds of socialists elected around the country. ...

In the poll, democratic socialists were defined as believing “that the government should take a more active role to improve Americans’ lives. They generally support higher taxes on corporations and high-income earners, support regulations that protect workers and consumers, and want more public ownership of key industries like housing, health care and utilities.” ...

74 percent of likely Democratic voters said democratic socialism comes closest to their viewpoint, while 16 percent said the same of capitalism. A plurality of independent voters and a majority of Republicans said they preferred capitalism.

The survey of 1,257 likely voters nationwide, conducted from Aug. 22 to 24 using web panel respondents, had a 3-point margin of error.

There's a killer on the loose in the Caribbean

Military Strikes Second Venezuela Drug Ship Headed to the U.S.

Do you not see what's happening here? The Trump administration is declaring everything it doesn't like to be terrorism in order to justify autocratic repression of it using the 2001 Authorization for Use of Military Force

The run of the mill narco smugglers from Venezuela suddenly are terrorists under Trump, so they blow them up.

Suddenly the left wing Charlie Kirk critics are being transformed into terrorists, too, so they say they will also destroy them.

Who's next? Where will it end? 

J. D. Vance once wanted to stop this underlying basis for neo-con adventurism. Now the chameleon is part of its expansion to include unconstitutional domestic repression.

These people must be stopped. 

 
 

 

Monday, September 15, 2025

There wasn't a spike in jobless claims last week after all: it was due to attempted claims in Texas which were fraudulent

I hope the Fed got the memo.

 



It's remarkable how quickly people on the right have 86ed the fact that a right wing nut assassinated the top Democrat in the Minnesota House just a few months ago

 And I can't find any record of The Wall Street Journal's Peggy Noonan wringing her hands in a column over the dire implications of this assassination for the country like she did for Charlie Kirk's. In June and July Peggy was all about thinking, not emoting. In September she's losing her shit.

A nut killing some Democrats is no reason to lose your head, I guess, but killing a Republican, now that's different. 

 


Peggy Pot Noonan warned MAGA Kettle about emotionalism in July lol

 


 ... A last note. If I were a fervent Trump supporter, I would worry about that movement’s hyperemotionalism. We have written in this space that with the rise of social media, Americans are becoming a people of feeling and not of thinking, a people in search of sensation and not reflection. It isn’t promising that this is increasingly true in our political sphere. I follow on social media fixtures of the MAGA movement. They say of each other in public what in politics 40 years ago people said in private and when drunk. FRAUD, LIAR, GRIFTER, WHORE. What a hothouse. Do they expect that with a nature like that they can go into the future as a serious force and a movement that coheres? They don’t seem to worry about it. Why not? ...

Here.

And here she was the week before lol:

Isolationism is essentially emotional. You’re angry at the cost in blood and treasure of your country’s international forays and adventures and want to withdraw from the world. Emotionalism can hold sway and dominate politics for a time, even an era, but you can’t build anything on it. It doesn’t last because emotions change because facts change. ...

 

 

It's laughable to say that Charlie Kirk was squarely at the median of American politics

 It would be an example of extremism if a voter advocated for the death penalty for Joe Biden for his immigration policy crimes, as Charlie Kirk did in July 2023.

What Joe Biden did with immigration policy, which is basically let them all in, which by the way he promised in his campaign for president in 2020 in nationally televised debates, is indeed criminal to many of us on the right. But we know that presidents get away with murder. We ought to change that, too, but presidents are in fact immune. 

 



 

The assassinations all have one thing in common

 The carbon units infesting the creator's planet.

 


 

What he said

 


I advocate that Trump shut his big fat meddling yap for the rest of his presidency and go golfing everyday

 

More autocratic rule by national emergency from Mad King Ludwig

Is that national emergency #53? I'm losing count. 

 
 

The governor of Utah Spencer Cox promotes hysteria, needs to get a grip


 

... “If your view of America is not shaken right now, then there’s something wrong with you,” Cox said on CNN’s “State of the Union.”

“This is a direct assault on America,” he continued. ...

More.

Oh yeah, it's a veritable Blitzkrieg! How will we ever get through it?!

 


 

 

Sunday, September 14, 2025

It's an American tradition: Peggy Noonan loses her head

... We are in big trouble.

We all know this. We don’t even know what to do with what we know. But the assassination of Charlie Kirk feels different as an event, like a hinge point, like something that is going to reverberate in new dark ways. It isn’t just another dreadful thing. It carries the ominous sense that we’re at the beginning of something bad. Michael Smerconish said on CNN Thursday afternoon that normally after such an event the temperature goes down a little, but not in this case, and he’s right. There are the heartbroken and the indifferent and they are irreconcilable. X, formerly Twitter, was from the moment of the shooting overrun with anguish and rage: It’s on now. Bluesky, where supposedly gentler folk fled Elon Musk, was gleefully violent: Too bad, live by the gun, die by the gun.

But what a disaster all this is for the young. ...

 

No, we are not in big trouble.

We are simply in the same trouble we've always been in, but that doesn't sell newspapers or drive clicks.

But surrendering to hysteria will misguide us, as surely as Tyler Robinson's feelings misguided him when he pulled that trigger, allegedly.

Didn't the country just get over surrendering its mind to its feelings?

Or are we, left, right, and in between, going to do this all over again? 

Fear of death made 270 million Americans trust a completely novel vaccine in 2021, only for over 20 million new infections in early 2022 to rip the mask off the whole thing.

We found out that we were not going to die.

We found out that the experts oversold the threat and the vaccine, ka-ching ka-ching, that after taking it "the virus didn't stop with me". We got sick anyway, and we continued to spread it. The adults knew that the virus was mutating to spread at the cost of its deadliness, but the adults were not in charge. We ended up learning the hard way.

The virus of violence is endemic to the world. Woke is a counterfeit. Summer 2020 was not a summer of love. Christianity is Uberwoke and explains that hate lives in us all.

The spectrum of hate's evidence is wide: By intentional homicide rate, Canada ranks 111th in the world in 2023. Mexico ranks 18th, and the United States ranks 66th.

But in 1975 the intentional homicide rate in the United States was 9.6 per 100,000. 9.6 is 43rd in 2023, Iraq-like. In 2023 the United States is 5.8. The rate is down 40%.

We have become far less violent, not more, in the last fifty years, even as religious faith supposedly has declined.

Maybe we should rethink that. Or maybe for starters we should just think.

Brethren, be not children in understanding: howbeit in malice be ye children, but in understanding be men. 

-- I Corinthians 14:20 

Friday, September 12, 2025

25th anniversary of the August 2000 S&P 500 high

 The 25 years previous to August 2000 were 104.15% better.