Wednesday, September 10, 2025

Core producer prices, not seasonally adjusted, were up 2.827% year over year in today's report for August 2025

 The climb-down from last month's report for July 2025 at 3.655% year over year was YUGE.

The numbers have been quite volatile for the last four months. 

In today's release, the yoy numbers for Nov 2024 through Mar 2025 remain unchanged from last month's report. The five month average of these for the yoy increase in core wholesale prices has been 3.711%.

Last month the average for April through July came in lower, at 3.144% year over year, but that has now been revised even lower in this month's report, by 2%, to 3.081% yoy.

Combined with the fresh August reading at 2.827% yoy, clearly the trend for the rate increases has been lower overall.

But these levels are far higher than the average 1.629% which prevailed 2012-2020 inclusive. Our new lower August reading is a rate still nearly 74% higher than that.

The wholesale price environment remains highly inflationary compared with the pre-pandemic era.