Job leavers today represent just 8% of the unemployed. Historically when this metric reaches 15% it appears predictive of a recession. Just two recessions occurred when the metric was below that, near 12.5%. Coincidently those were the two worst recessions in the post-war period from an unemployment perspective, with total unemployment peaking near 10% in 1982-83 and 2009. They were also the only two recessions where the percentage of unemployment from job leavers plunged below 7.5%.
