Thursday, April 23, 2026

Strait of Hormuz/Bab-el-Mandeb Strait JMIC Update 036 for 16-22 April 2026 tanker traffic

SoH E tankers: 2.57 per day April 16-22

SoH W tankers: 2.00 per day

Normal (2022): ~70.00 total per day

Down 93% 

BAM tankers SE: 6.57 per day April 16-22

BAM tankers NW: 6.28 per day 

Normal (2022): ~30.00 total per day

Down 57% 

 



Trump approval makes another new low in Real Clear Average, disapproval makes another new high

 


Ruh roh, he didn't say "two weeks"

 Trump says Americans should expect higher gas prices for ‘a little while’

Adjusted for inflation from 1995, the average mortgage payment in 2025 was 37% higher than it might have been


 

 In June 1995 the average mortgage payment in the United States was roughly $773.

Adjusted for inflation to June 2025 that's $1,635.

The actual average mortgage payment in 2025 was about $2,235.

Bill Clinton teeming up with Republicans in 1997 to turn our homes into mere commodities has really worked out great, hasn't it?

Especially for young people. 

The median age of a first time home buyer in 1995 was 29. 

In 2025 it's 39.

But your GOP-controlled U.S. Senate couldn't care less.

It stayed up late last night to scheme for more money for ICE even though ICE is completely incompetent to deport illegal aliens, but it never stays up to solve the most pressing problems of America's younger generations.

The blindness is mind-boggling.

Study finds that female liberals believe words can harm, tend to be emotionally less stable, see themselves as victims, experience higher levels of anxiety and depression, support laws which make you stfu

... “People higher in the belief that words can harm tended to be younger, female, non-White, and politically liberal.”

... restricting speech feels like protection as opposed to censorship.

... mental health appears to influence political ideology more than political ideology influences mental health, with increases in psychological distress predicting a subsequent shift toward political liberalism. 

... the most empathic people support the least tolerant policies. ... 

More.

Just a coincidence, I'm sure


 

Trump orders Navy to ‘shoot and kill’ boats laying mines in Hormuz Strait

Komrade Karoline insists that Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz

"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command."

  

Weasels are most active at night

 


Although the trend for continued claims for unemployment is slightly up since Nov 1, 2021, the overall trend for initial claims remains down since then

The average weekly figure for initial claims in 2025 was historically very low at 224,490, and for 1Q2026 it's up only 3.7% from that, to 232,826.

The average weekly figure for continued claims in 2025 was 1,923,140, and for 1Q2026 it's 2,140,439, up 11.3%.

      



As if ICE doesn't have enough money already from the Big Ugly Bill to murder Americans in our own streets, the bloodthirsty GOP Senate has voted to give them MORE intending to use the budget reconciliation trick


 

 U.S. Senate votes to advance $70 billion funding plan for ICE, Border Patrol

... Lawmakers voted 50-48 in the predawn ​hours to adopt the non-binding budget resolution and send it ​to the U.S. House of Representatives ...

Two Republicans — Senators Rand Paul and Lisa Murkowski — opposed the measure.

If adopted by the House, the resolution will allow congressional committees to begin filling in the details on how the $70 billion would be spent in separate legislation ⁠that President ‌Donald Trump would have to sign into law. ...

Republicans plan to employ a rarely used procedure known as budget reconciliation in the separate legislation, which allows some budget-related bills to bypass Democratic opposition in the Senate. ...

Such measures require only a simple majority for passage in the 100-member chamber, instead of the usual supermajority of 60 votes or more. ‌Republicans hold a 53-47 seat majority. ...

After two U.S. citizens were ​fatally shot by immigration enforcement agents in Minneapolis, Democrats insisted that ICE and Border Patrol be subject to the same operational rules as police forces across the United States, including a requirement that judicial warrants be obtained before agents can enter private homes.

But weeks of negotiations ended in a stalemate. ...

Last year, Republicans passed legislation providing around $130 billion in funding for these two agencies, ‌separate from their annual appropriations and the $70 billion now being advanced in Congress. ... 

 

Wednesday, April 22, 2026

The incredible shrinking U.S. House of Represenatives in April 2026

 


Does anyone remember The Bedford Incident?


 "If they fire one, we'll fire one".

With the United States blockading all supply coming in to Iran and seizing some vessels, there are roughly 100 container ships trapped in the Persian Gulf from which Iran can choose anytime it wishes to go shopping. 

Iran says it has seized two ships in Strait of Hormuz after U.S. extends ceasefire

Iran’s navy on Wednesday said it had seized two container ships in the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, shortly after the U.S. extended the ceasefire and as diplomats seek to bring the countries together for peace talks.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Navy said in a statement that it had seized the ships for what it claimed were maritime violations and transferred them to Iranian shores, according to state media. CNBC could not independently verify the claim.

The announcement came after U.K. maritime authorities said two ships had been attacked in the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian media reported a third vessel had also been targeted by the country’s military. ...

 

Tuesday, April 21, 2026

New narrative alert as Trump tanks in the polls: Iran War was about 6 weeks as Trump said it would be!

I mean, that's true right?

We are in week 8, and the two week ceasefire which expires tomorrow has been extended indefinitely because Trump says Iran is too divided to speak with a unified voice.

The truth is whatever Humpty Trumpty says it is.                                                       

 

Buffett Indicator in the news

 Wall Street on red alert as Warren Buffett’s favorite stock market gauge hits the worst reading EVER

... The so-called Buffett indicator divides the total value of all US stocks by the total economic output of the United States, delivering one simple number that sums up how investors are feeling at the moment.

Buffett said that a reading of 100 percent suggests markets are in balance - in other words, the stock market is worth about as much as the US economy produces in one year - while a lower figure means stocks are undervalued.

Right now, the index hit its highest reading ever - 232 percent - indicating that stocks are historically overvalued. ...

Right now, the indicator is well above its last two all-time highs: The 219 percent reading seen at the height of the 2021 pandemic stock market frenzy, and the 163 percent level at the 2000 peak of the dot com bubble. ...                                                                                                              

 

Using SPX tonight, instead of the Wilshire 5000 as Buffett does, we're at 224.8 vs. 1938-2019 mean level of 81!

The market has been obscenely overvalued way beyond the 1938-2019 experience for six consecutive years and counting, and investors keep keeping it that way by continuing to pour money into it. It won't unwind until they stop. And since they believe that the market goes only up, it will probably take a market-loathing mother of all economic disasters to change their minds and make them do so.

Meanwhile real return since August 2000 (139), the previous secular peak, is now 5.27% per annum through March 2026 (25 years, 7 months).

Real return from January 1975 to August 2000 (the previous 25 years, 7 months) was 11.19% per annum, 112% better because valuation was 61 in 1975 and falling.

Investing at high valuations by definition produces poorer results. Compare August 1965 (118) to August 2000 (139): 6.95% per annum real

(I need to update this chart for 2024 and 2025!)

 


 

Well, at least he didn't say two weeks

 ðŸ¤£ 

Trump extends ceasefire in Iran, citing ‘seriously fractured’ Iranian government

 

WTI has been more or less $90 since March 6th, mostly more

 


Speaking of whiplash

 Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick resigns, third House member to quit this month

 


 

More whiplash, ouch

 Vance trip to Pakistan for Iran talks is on hold, NYT reports

Speaking of Rome . . .

 




JMIC Update 035 for the Middle East maritime region is confusing

 The data boxes cover April 14-20 but are entitled April 12-18.

And what is "2BAM Total" lol? Only The Sweet know for sure.

Anyway tankers exiting the Strait of Hormuz E now average 3/day April 19-20 vs. 2/day in the previous five day period. Big whoop.

Tanker traffic in and out of the Red Sea through the Bab-el-Mandeb averages 20/day April 19-20 vs. 8.2/day in the previous five day period.

Is that reflecting a mad dash before the ceasefire ends tomorrow?